satyr9 wrote:Michael Bradley wrote:The Jays won 86 games in 2008 (93 wins based on run differential for those who value that), and instead of trying to replace Burnett, Marcum (injury), etc, in 2009, they punted the entire season and followed that up by trading Halladay away the following year. Then in 2010 they won 85 games, and instead of adding to that team they decided to trade Wells (good move), Marcum, and Napoli while replacing them with Rajai Davis, Jo Jo Reyes, Corey Patterson, etc, etc, etc. Then this off-season, instead of attempting to upgrade the offense and rotation, they spent whatever money they had on upgrading the bullpen with 35+ year old relievers (and Santos).
Nothing the Jays have done since Godfrey left/Ted died shows any type of commitment to spending money or trying to win, unfortunately. I don't see any reason to expect it without first seeing some signs.
The on the field success isn't Rogers' primary concern, on that we totally agree. There is a mountain of difference between the 08/09 offseason and now in just about every way. First, 86 wins left the Jays 9 games behind the wild card and included a terrible start, a coaching change, and a nice run down the stretch under totally meaningless circumstances. They brought Beeston in to totally overthrow the makeup of the franchise, both on and off the field and despite Cito's run they weren't going to switch gears on a total overhaul for a couple months success. Also, the extra WC and some chinks in the Sox/Yanks armour goes a long way to making the Jays prospects look better and in turn the ability to draw more casual fans throughout the year. An identical 86 win season this year could easily leave them within 3-4 games of the playoffs and with the farm system already in place (as opposed to 08/09) the step to the playoffs, the fans, and the revenues that go with it start looking like they might be within reach, whereas I simply don't believe anyone who says they thought that was the case after 2008 if the Jays had just ponied up for a FA or two.
Let me preface this by saying I hated JP Ricciardi.
With that said, the 2008 pitching staff was elite; best in all of baseball that year by 30+ runs. Unfortunately the offense sucked and the Rays decided to become good, so it was just bad luck and bad timing. However, a team could build off that type of season. Granted, the Jays were going to lose AJ Burnett to free agency, and Marcum and McGowan to injury, but there was every opportunity to add talent in 2009. Edwin Jackson was traded that year. Javier Vazquez was traded that year. The free agent market, due to the economic downturn, was filled with cheap (relatively speaking) talent. Why couldn't the Jays build off 2008, try to stay afloat in 2009, and then go for it all in 2010 when Marcum and McGowan (so we thought) would be back? There was no reason for the Jays to shut everything down and waste a prime Halladay season. The roster was loaded with veterans and/or proven commodities (Wells, Rolen, Rios, Overbay, Halladay, Ryan, Downs, Hill, etc) that weren't going to be around, or at least as good, for much longer. Either try to win with them or trade all of them. The Jays did neither. They could have tried for two more years and took their chances at Halladay's impending free agency. Instead, they punted 2009, and then used that to justify trading Halladay away. It was a calculated move by Beeston. I'm not a Rogers hater either, in fact, I have defended them for keeping their word on increasing payroll from 2006-08. However, everything that has happened from 2009-onwards (i.e. when Godfrey left and Ted died) has been hard to defend. Impossible, actually. Godfrey, for as much as a meddler as he seemed to be, cared about the on-field product. Beeston doesn't seem to care at all.
This was the off-season to add talent. They decided to spend it on Oliver, Cordero, and now Guerrero. What makes anyone think things will be different next season regardless of how the team finishes this year? They refuse to go five years on free agents, so that eliminates them from any elite free agent that might be available. That leaves trading and scrap heap type signings, and how many elite players (i.e. the type the Jays need) are traded every year? Waiting for another Brandon Morrow to be underutilized by his team is not a fool proof way to improve long-term.
I said before, the minute Bautista stops being elite, the Jays are in trouble. They need elite talent. Badly. If that means they have to go 8 years on Cole Hamels, then they have to decide whether that is more important or whether seeing a minimum earning Drabek walk 11 guys in 4 innings on 120 pitches is the better alternative.
I like AA a lot, but between him, Beeston, and Rogers, I don't see any reason why we should expect the team to spend money next year, unless it involves re-signing existing talent. That's not a criticism, just that's reality.
