Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XXIV: Offseason Edition)

[PeePee la Fritz]

Really? He shoots the 3 well and is a pretty good offensive rebounder. He was a good 3 point shooter and offensive rebounder in college, his rookie year, and this year. What else does he do well? And the dude does not have a pound of muscle on that flabby frame. I have issue with a guy about to get a huge pay day who has not improved on his WEAKNESSES. I am not, will not, or have not taken away from what he does well (shoot, and offensive rebound) I am saying I have issue with him not improving the rest of his game a la JJ. JJ was just a shooter when he came into the league, he worked his ass off every offseason to improve his weakness. Ryan has not shown any of that yet. So sorry I chose BBD over Anderson.

I honestly believe a guy like Novak could have an identical impact as Anderson if he were paired next to Dwight. I get it, he put up great numbers when he was getting open looks while Dwight was in the lineup. But push came to shove, do you pay a guy 10 million to hit open 3s? Best case scenario he turns in to Robert Horry, but Horry was a GREAT defender, and super clutch in the playoffs. He has a lot of work to do before he gets there, and I just dont hear about him working his butt off over the summer, nor do I see areas of weakness being turned into strengths. So I like Ryan, but I dont like him near enough to be making what he is about to get paid

[gp123]

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @suiluap_: J-Smoove still wants to be traded. What do u know about that ? ---> he wants to win, doesn't think Hawks can/will do that

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
Keep in mind Hawks ownership believes Josh Smith is an All-Star and want a real All-Star as the STARTING point of a trade... thats too much

Well, that rules that out.

Eye on Basketball ‏@EyeOnBasketball
Report: Bobcats to interview Brian Shaw, Quin Snyder for coaching position. http://cbsprt.co/K6AOTC Search headed in the right direction?

I know we hate talking about he-who-shall-not-be-named, but I wonder if a package core of Fran rights/Redick/Ryno would be enough to get them thinking about moving smith to us.

They need a real center, but could also do well with horford/ryan team especially in the east. JJ is either salary relief or quality player.

[gp123]

BBD had the opportunity to flourish.....not giving Ryan a pass by any stretch i'm just saying that to me BBD's play in the playoffs came with an asterisk.....

The beef I got with Ryan is that he's one-dimensional. If his shot isn't falling or if he's not getting open, he can't do much else. I was hoping he'd crash the boards more if his shot wasn't falling, but he never did so. He was the biggest liability on defense with West taking him to school every single time, either getting fouled, a shot, or swinging the ball to the weak side when the double came for an open shot. At least BBD crashed the boards, defended Hibbert and West very well, hustled hard, rolled to the basket to get easy buckets when the mid-range J wasn't falling. Ryan goes ghost if his 3 doesn't fall. Again, he's young, and I see potential there, but BBD showed he's more seasoned than Ryan.

Ryan, knowing he was being clamped, should have been running around like a friggin banshee. forget getting open for shots, he should have been setting screens up and down and dragging his man all over the place while focusing on taking charges and rebounding. He's going to get better with time on all parts of his game -- but right now he needs to focus on going beyond his lip service about changing his game when defenses shut him down... and actually do it.

[G-Heel]

Really? He shoots the 3 well and is a pretty good offensive rebounder. He was a good 3 point shooter and offensive rebounder in college, his rookie year, and this year. What else does he do well? And the dude does not have a pound of muscle on that flabby frame. I have issue with a guy about to get a huge pay day who has not improved on his WEAKNESSES. I am not, will not, or have not taken away from what he does well (shoot, and offensive rebound) I am saying I have issue with him not improving the rest of his game a la JJ. JJ was just a shooter when he came into the league, he worked his ass off every offseason to improve his weakness. Ryan has not shown any of that yet. So sorry I chose BBD over Anderson.

I honestly believe a guy like Novak could have an identical impact as Anderson if he were paired next to Dwight. I get it, he put up great numbers when he was getting open looks while Dwight was in the lineup. But push came to shove, do you pay a guy 10 million to hit open 3s? Best case scenario he turns in to Robert Horry, but Horry was a GREAT defender, and super clutch in the playoffs. He has a lot of work to do before he gets there, and I just dont hear about him working his butt off over the summer, nor do I see areas of weakness being turned into strengths. So I like Ryan, but I dont like him near enough to be making what he is about to get paid

+1 million. Players that shoot 3s and do almost nothing else isn't good in the long run. We can keep Ryan, but it has to be cheap and we have to get rid of all these other shooters and get some real defenders in.

Look at the 4 teams that remains, how many of them are built with a bunch of shooters that play little defense? None. Celtics? Ray Allen, but he's the best shooter in history and can play defense. Heat? Mike Miller is the only pure shooter in their rotation, but he can play some defense and handle the ball. Thunders? Maybe Fisher. Spurs? Bonner.

Magic? Jameer, JJ, JRich, Hedo, Ryno, and Chris Duhon. I hope Magic takes a brand new direction. I want a tough team, not a soft, 3-pt shooting team. No more of this stretch-4 bulls and everyone have to be able to hold their own on the defensive end, can't just depend on Dwight helping out all the time.

[magic04life]

That core you don't think is that bad to build around? It's basically DeAndre Jordan, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark and a less stupid Daniel Orton.

Keep your two cents next time.

There is only one person in the draft that is MAYBE worth trading Dwight for and that's Anthony Davis.

[Mr Loggins]

There is only one person in the draft that is MAYBE worth trading Dwight for and that's Anthony Davis.

I don't know, If Dwight is definately gone, then the Magic have no leverage. Who's going to pay a King's ranson for a 1 year rental when he'd be available for free?

The way I see it Magic can either:
a) not trade him and go for broke, or

b) trade him knowing you're going to get 50 cents on the dollar. This route also requires the complete overhaul with 2-3 seasons of suckage.

If I were Cleveland, for instance, I wouldnt offer more than Varajao + 2012 first + filler. I'd rather have the 2012 first than Bynum or whatever trash New Jersy can offer.

[eyriq]

To the "Ryan was good only because of Dwight" crowd:

Ryan scored and rebounded more with Dwight off the court than on the court. Research is your friend.

[PeePee la Fritz]

To the "Ryan was good only because of Dwight" crowd:

Ryan scored and rebounded more with Dwight off the court than on the court. Research is your friend.

To the blind Ryan nut hugging fan boy crowd....The dude is not worth the contract he is about to get. If you are telling me a resigned Ryan can be had at 5 million per, then I'd be on board. But I still like what BBD brings to the table overall more so then Ryan. And I have felt that way all year.

[FFBlitzace]

Novak? Pound for pound, he's one of the worst rebounders in the league, if not the worst. Jameer rebounded at a better rate than Novak this past year. No really, he did.

[Truth24]

I understand that BBD did work in the playoffs and it really surprised me and he did some work when Dwight went down. The thing is he did all that work playing the five and not the four and I just don't think he would ball like that with Dwight in the lineup. Ryan Anderson is a great fit next to Dwight but he does have some major flaws with his defense and not putting the ball on the floor. I don't think he will ever be a post type player but if he develops a little drive game or a pump fake one dribble pull up he would be much dangerous.

I also know people say "I don't care about regular season, they don't win championships" but there is only one way to get to the playoffs. I agree that stepping up in the playoffs is key but really don't care about this year because we were without Dwight. I also understand about the contract that Ryno is going to get and I also don't want to over pay but we will see how that goes.

[Darth Magic]

To the "Ryan was good only because of Dwight" crowd:

Ryan scored and rebounded more with Dwight off the court than on the court. Research is your friend.

You would think people would know this. Have a bad stretch in the playoff games and people complain that you didn't improve enough in the year you won most improved player of the year. All of a sudden you're a more well-rounded Steve Novak

[PeePee la Fritz]

Novak? Pound for pound, he's one of the worst rebounders in the league, if not the worst. Jameer rebounded at a better rate than Novak this past year. No really, he did.

Anderson is not a good rebounder. He is a good opportunistic offensive rebounder. And most of that is due to the fact people forget to box out 3 point shooters. I am not taking away from his value or contribution to the team, but if you say he is worth a penny over 5-6 million a year you are outa your mind

[PeePee la Fritz]

name 10 starting NBA power forwards that Anderson is better then. Then tell me if he is worth paying starter money when the goal is to clear room to bring in actual talent. He is a quality role player, who needs to be coming off the bench. You dont pay those guys $8-$12 mil per. You pay them $5-$6 mil per. Which is the biggest reason I'd take BBD over Ryno

[eyriq]

To the "Ryan was good only because of Dwight" crowd:

Ryan scored and rebounded more with Dwight off the court than on the court. Research is your friend.

To the blind Ryan nut hugging fan boy crowd....The dude is not worth the contract he is about to get. If you are telling me a resigned Ryan can be had at 5 million per, then I'd be on board. But I still like what BBD brings to the table overall more so then Ryan. And I have felt that way all year.

Next to Dwight Ryan shoots 44%, with 60% of his FGA coming from three. With Dwight off the court Ryan shoots 45%, with only 49% of his FGA coming from three. Ryan takes almost two more FGA per 36 minutes with Dwight off the court and shoots a better percentage. He does not disappear without Dwight.

Dwight next to Ryan shoots 59%, which drops to 56% with Ryan off the court. Dwight next to Baby shoots 55%, which climes to 58% when Baby is off the court. Dwight plays better with Ryan than without.

[FFBlitzace]

Anderson is not a good rebounder.

And yet we're the ones being assigned such hyperbolic labels as "Blind Ryan Nut Hugging Fanboy Crowd." Interesting.

[eyriq]

Anderson is not a good rebounder.

And yet we're the ones being assigned such hyperbolic labels as "Blind Ryan Nut Hugging Fanboy Crowd." Interesting.

[magicman123]

lol stats

[PeePee la Fritz]

Anderson is not a good rebounder.

And yet we're the ones being assigned such hyperbolic labels as "Blind Ryan Nut Hugging Fanboy Crowd." Interesting.

So you are saying he is worth a big time contract? Because I am not calling him a bad player. I am calling him a solid role player. And you dont pay solid role players big time money. Unless he turns himself into a solid defender, and finds a little more time to spend in the post. If you tell me Ryan can give me what he does right now and not get torched on the defensive end then sign me up for 4-5 years at 8-9 mil per. But right now he is a big time liability and has shown no sign of putting in the work to become a better defender. Not even the effort is there.

So give me toughness and defense everyday of the week over 3 point shooting!

[Def Swami]

Anderson is not a good rebounder.

And yet we're the ones being assigned such hyperbolic labels as "Blind Ryan Nut Hugging Fanboy Crowd." Interesting.

I wouldn't call Anderson a bad rebounder, but he didn't do well in the playoffs (4.5 rpg). The only reason I can see that is because he was going up against a big front line every game. I would deem BBD the better rebounder (9.2 rpg). Ryan made strides throughout the season, but I think the length and strength of the Pacer front court was too much to handle for him, and that's a legit concern.

The scoring aspect at the PF position isn't as much of a concern as the rebounding and defending aspect are to me. Defense is the cornerstone for most contenders and if we're talking about championships, Ryan has to improve on defense, a lot. Not saying he's incapable, because he has made significant progress throughout the season, but I'd rely more on Big Baby.

Plus, I actually don't see Ryan getting paid that much this offseason. I have a feeling NBA execs will look at those playoff stats and stray away. I don't see him getting more than 5-6 mill.

[FFBlitzace]

He is a quality role player, who needs to be coming off the bench. You dont pay those guys $8-$12 mil per. You pay them $5-$6 mil per. Which is the biggest reason I'd take BBD over Ryno

Well, BBD is already over your 6mill limit, albeit slightly. He's set to make 6.4mill next season while producing significantly less than Ryan (with a higher usage rate, no less. Speaking of opportunistic!). Rebounded slightly worse. TS% a full 12 percentage points lower (that's pretty large). Turned it over more. Didn't play well next to Dwight.


Relative to today's NBA market, I would say Ryan's production this past season is undoubtedly worth 7-8mill a year. If he signs an offer sheet for that much, or lower, my opinion is that we should match it and not think twice about it.