Jon Paul Morosi: No ignoring Blue Jays this summer

[polo007]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toro ... gue-052912

Through a combination of sound planning and good fortune, his medium-term roster is as utilitarian as a coupled Swiss Army knife: J.P. Arencibia/d’Arnaud at catcher, Yunel Escobar/Hechavarria at shortstop, Colby Rasmus/Gose in center.

Trade one, keep the other.

Who stays and who goes will hinge on how quickly Anthopoulos shifts into Win Now Mode, a gear left untouched since he took the wheel in October 2009. Escobar could help the Blue Jays arrive at some answers if he managed better than a .648 OPS or indicated a willingness to make way for Hechavarria by playing second base. (He has not done either.) And though some Ontarians consider it heresy to classify the popular Arencibia as a trade candidate, imagine the return the Jays could receive for a slugging 26-year-old catcher.

In past years, Anthopoulos operated under a mission statement that would have looked lousy on the season-ticket brochures. WE WILL LEAD THE LEAGUE IN COMPENSATORY DRAFT PICKS! He accumulated relievers, offered them salary arbitration, and gobbled up prospects in the sandwich round. He spent money internationally, too. Now the Toronto farm system is among the best in baseball. But the rules have changed.

Beginning this year, in order to collect a draft pick clubs must (a) retain the prospective free agent all season and (b) offer him a one-year tender between $12 million and $13 million.

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

[Randle McMurphy]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

[kavan]

I think neither player sees more then 6-7 million a year. Unless there are performance incentives. I think EE can be brought back for a 6-7 million with a team option or two as our DH/1B. We dont really have to trade JP as I would love to see his bat in the DH Roll as well as Catching when Travis D has the day off or what ever the case maybe. I think Yunel is great but Johnson is doing great and has earned him self another stint if he can keep up with how he is doing. We have a lot of "Good" players just not enough great over the top amazing ones. Maybe we trade quantity for quality.

[J-Roc]

I heard Morosi on the Fan yesterday. He's convinced EE can be a $10M+ player. He just says EE and his agent need him to be sold as a first baseman.

[satyr9]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

I agree, but if EE breaks a magic HR number, then all bets are off and someone will pay him out.

I actually think the 12m qualifying offer is going to turn out to be genius from the PA's perspective. It's not a lock by any stretch, but I can see it functioning similar to the MLE in the NBA driving up the middle salary, since if you have to choose between getting the player, losing the player, and losing the player with compensation, what's the extra mil or two or four (obviously, four is significant, but this thing will take a while so once 12 is the new 10, then 10 is the new 8 and it's not far off the 12 again) to ensure you don't have the worst of the three happen? I hope sanity prevails and the GMs don't drive all 8+m types straight to the 12m, but it wouldn't shock me one bit if it did. Still, not this offseason, but the groundwork may get laid if a guy like EE gets a 12m qualifier, who prior to this would've need a Bautistaesque breakout to be considered for an 8 figure salary after the career he's had.

[Al_Oliver]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

What do you think they can both get?
If Johnson is more valuable, would you try and extend him or just give him a qualifying offer for 12-13 mil? What to do with EE, trade him or try and work out an extension?
Interesting position for AA to be in. I would hope neither just walks at season's end

[torontoaces04]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

You heard it here first folks. /thread.

[Modern_epic]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

You heard it here first folks. /thread.

Are you disagreeing? Because you actually heard it at Fangraphs and Baseball Reference first. A guy who can OPS ~.800 at 2B is more valuable than a guy who's OPS is ~.900 at 1B and DH.

[TorontoRaptures]

True, but the guys handing out the contracts don't necessarily reward the most deserving players. Historically, EE's power will see him getting a much bigger pay day than KJ's ability to get on base, regardless of who's more impressive for their position.

Also, KJ is only more valuable to us than EE if we find a bat to replace EE at 1B/DH. Losing one of our most dangerous hitters in EE without any sort of replacement would really set this team back. The middle of the lineup is thin enough as is. (Unless Rasmus/Lawrie start hitting to potential...)

[flatjacket1]

I think HR hitters tend to get paid more than OBP guys, and so far, with the positional adjustment, KJ is worth 0.5 fWAR or 41% more than Edwin. These statistics are available to GM's and agents so we will likely see both of them get paid at least as much as their fWAR values.

At this rate, KJ is on pace to be worth around 5 fWAR (600 PA) and Edwin is on pace to be worth 3.4 fWAR. Edwin could still command a better deal but I'm winning to bet both players will receive (and decline) arbitration offers that command draft picks.

[flatjacket1]

So, how many of Toronto’s prospective free agents – Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Mathis, Omar Vizquel, the soon-to-arrive Vladimir Guerrero — would deserve a salary of more than $12 million next year?

The answer is maybe one: Encarnacion.

Kelly Johnson is more valuable than Encarnacion.

Funny story too. Kelly Johnson (positional adjustments) at this rate will finish this season with similar value to Prince Fielder (5.5 fWAR [Fielder] before FA compared to 5 fWAR before FA). In theory they should be paid similar amounts.

[Rasho is god]

KJ4MVP

[Wally West]

Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports wonders if the Blue Jays could trade Yunel Escobar when prospect Adeiny Hechavarria gets the call to the Major Leagues. The A’s, Mariners and Pirates could be positioned to trade pitching for Escobar, Morosi writes. Personally, I doubt the Blue Jays trade Escobar in the near future, but the team has surprised me many times before.

I know Oakland has a ton of pitching but what kind of pitching does Pittsburgh have besides Cole and Taillon that they would be willing to offer and actually have value?