The 2012 NBA Draft: 6th & 11th picks, and some random 2nds.

[fishnc]

It wouldn't shock me if the W's selected Sullinger at 7.

I know it's tough to predict what direction teams in the lottery will go, but a lot of these predictions seem to be assuming that teams will draft based on positional need rather than BPA.

Also, there is almost always a reach in the top 10. Given the depth of this draft, it wouldn't surprise if there were a reach or two somewhere between 5-10.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

It wouldn't shock me if the W's selected Sullinger at 7.

Just going off a hypothetical (trading #6 - Lamb to Milwauakee), would they pick Sullinger over Barnes? They really need a starting SF more than a PF

[fishnc]

It wouldn't shock me if the W's selected Sullinger at 7.

Just going off a hypothetical (trading #6 - Lamb to Milwauakee), would they pick Sullinger over Barnes? They really need a starting SF more than a PF

Just edited into my post above after you posted this, but I think there's a possibility of the Warriors going BPA over team need. There was a quote from their front office recently that they were planning on taking a more established player as opposed to a player with a ton of upside like they have been known for in the past. They also have 3 picks later in the draft (30, 35, and 52) and it is usually easier to find skilled wing players late in the draft rather than skilled big men.

[LOOSH]

I have a feeling the Cavs are going to give Harrison Barnes a hard look at 4

[fishnc]

I have a feeling the Cavs are going to give Harrison Barnes a hard look at 4

Here's hoping!

[Effigy]

I was wondering something... if we don't take Sullinger at 6, would he fall to us at 11?

7 - Would GSW take Sullinger with Lee and Bogut? I guess they are semi likely, but what do others think?
8 - Raptors have a ton of PF/C's already and need another wing, so its unlikely
9 - Detroit needs a defensive PF who can stretch the floor (ie Henson) to compliment Monroe, not another post scorer.
10 - Hornets might have taken Sullinger if they didn't get Davis, but with Davis they probably want a PG at this spot. I imagine they would want Marshall's playmaking to get the most out of Davis.


If Sullinger is our target at 6, we might not lose anything if we let him drop to 11.

Except that what will probably happen is that a team below us leapfrogs us and trades up to get him at 9 or 10.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

That's a good point, especially if the Raptors like Harkless and are willing to trade down, they could make it possible for another team to move up.

My first thought was maybe Philly and Raptors switch draft places, if Philly amnesties Brand, Sullinger could be a very good replacement. I am not sure what the Sixers have that Toronto would want, but if the reports that Toronto likes Harkless are true it might not take much.

Then again, we could threaten to take Harkless at 11 if Toronto lets the Sixers leapfrog us to take Sullinger. Maybe we then negotiate with Toronto for Sullinger at 8 and Harkless at 11?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

it is usually easier to find skilled wing players late in the draft rather than skilled big men.

Are you sure?

#30 or later picks Since 2005:

Successful bigs: Lee, Bass, Illyasova, Turiaf, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Millsap, Landry, Davis, McRoberts, M.Gasol, Pekovic, Jordan, Asik, Blair

Successful wings: Ellis, LRMM, Eyenga, Meeks, Thornton, Budinger, Fields, Parson

That is a 15-8 advantage for bigs. Also, the successful bigs have been way more successful than any of those wings except Ellis (who it is even a stretch to call him a wing).

[fishnc]

it is usually easier to find skilled wing players late in the draft rather than skilled big men.

Are you sure?

#30 or later picks Since 2005:

Successful bigs: Lee, Bass, Illyasova, Turiaf, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Millsap, Landry, Davis, McRoberts, M.Gasol, Pekovic, Jordan, Asik, Blair

Successful wings: Ellis, LRMM, Eyenga, Meeks, Thornton, Budinger, Fields, Parson

That is a 15-8 advantage for bigs. Also, the successful bigs have been way more successful than any of those wings except Ellis (who it is even a stretch to call him a wing).

When I said wings I was also thinking about PGs. I should have chosen a better word. If you include PGs, the numbers change a bit (obviously adding one more position):

Monta Ellis, CJ Miles, Lou Williams, Ryan Gomes, Daniel Gibson, LRRM, Ramon Sessions, Mario Chalmers, Goran Dragic, Christian Eyenga, Jodie Meeks, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green, Landry Fields, Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas

Anyways, that was more skilled big men than I recalled off the top of my head so it would seem many fall to the latter half of the draft. I would still argue that in this draft we will see more successful wing players taken 30 or lower than successful big men.

[Norm2953]

I see the draft lottery teams like this

NO Davis
Ch Robinson
Wa Beal
Cle Barnes
Sac MKG/Drummond
Por Drummond/MKG
GS Walters
To Lillard
Det Zeller
NO Marshall
Po Ross
Mil Sullinger
Ph Jones3
Ho Lamb

Where I have a problem is at 5 with Sacramento for if they pick Drummond, Portland would
leap all over MKG who I think will slip if he measures out at 6-5. If MKG is Portland's pick,
they would likely pick a big with the 11 pick (if they keep it). Portland is probably hoping
Drummond goes before they pick but they really can't pass on him at 6.

What I find really odd is the mock drafts that have us picking both Drummond and Lamb
with our picks for that U Conn team this season really underachieved coming off of a
national title win.

[DusterBuster]

Why do you think Barnes jumps ahead of MKG?

[lukeyrid13]

I don't see any way that MKG falls all the way to 6. He may slip but someone will then jump up to 4 or 5 to grab him if he's still around. Teams won't just pass on him and not get value from it

Plus SF is by far the biggest need for SAC so i think they take him no matter who else is on the board

[DusterBuster]

I don't see any way that MKG falls all the way to 6. He may slip but someone will then jump up to 4 or 5 to grab him if he's still around. Teams won't just pass on him and not get value from it

Plus SF is by far the biggest need for SAC so i think they take him no matter who else is on the board

Me either. I think he goes 4th at the latest. I do think Norm could have the Top 3 right though. I can see CHA taking TRob, then Beal to WAS. In that scenario, there's no question he goes to CLE.

[Norm2953]

There are some questions about whether MKG is indeed 6-7. At Kentucky he played a
lot of PF and with an already questionable outside shot, if he measures out at closer
to 6-5, he might not have an NBA position.

I see a lot of questions about the guys going 2-6 for Thomas Robinson is much like
Derrick Williams which is an undersized PF, Beal might be closer to 6-3, Barnes
lacks explosiveness, Drummond was an underachiever and MKG and his perimeter
game and size. In a lot of ways, the guys picked in the middle to late first round
might be as good as the guys going 2-6 but this seems to be a draft with a lot of
guys who will play but finding the guys who will become all-star caliber players is
going to be a challenge.

There's a reason Charlotte wants Portland's two lottery picks for there is no
consensus #2. Portland would love to deal one or perhaps both of their picks
for quality rotation player and Utah with a logjam of players up front like
Al Jefferson, Favors, Kanter, Millsap might be a team that might be willing
to make a deal.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

When I said wings I was also thinking about PGs. I should have chosen a better word. If you include PGs, the numbers change a bit (obviously adding one more position):

Just to play devils advocate, but we were talking about the Warriors who have Curry at PG. In the context, we were debating Barnes/Sullinger for them, and you claimed the Warriors might prefer Sullinger because they would be more likely to get a production player at Barnes position than a production player at Sullingers position. The likely-hood of a productive PG being available past 30 has almost no relevance to that claim...

Anyways, that was more skilled big men than I recalled off the top of my head so it would seem many fall to the latter half of the draft. I would still argue that in this draft we will see more successful wing players taken 30 or lower than successful big men.

However, I think you are right about this specific draft, and that was the counter argument I was expecting (Also, a lot of the successful centers I mentioned spent time in Europe before coming over, which can skew draft position, especially since now teams look more closely at those players due to their success.. for example Valanciunas - 3-5 years ago he might have been a second round pick along with Gortat/Gasol).

I was disagreeing about a historical trend, but this specific draft does seem to have more wings with potential than bigs (a trend which continues into the 2ed round)

Wings: Jenkins, Lamb, Miller, Barton, Murphy, Crowder, Buford
Bigs: Ezeli, Green, Gordon, O'Quinn, Plumlee.

Historically this has not exactly been the case, so who knows how it will look in hindsight.

[Wizenheimer]

There's a reason Charlotte wants Portland's two lottery picks for there is no
consensus #2. Portland would love to deal one or perhaps both of their picks
for quality rotation player and Utah with a logjam of players up front like
Al Jefferson, Favors, Kanter, Millsap might be a team that might be willing
to make a deal.

Portland has a starting PF...they need a C, and there's only 1 in that list. Favors is untouchable. Millsap makes little sense unless you picture him as the starting SF. Jefferson would wipe out cap-space. And from what I've seen of Kanter, he's not worth the 6th pick but Utah would never move him for the 11th pick

I just don't see any realistic deal there

[GeraldWallace3]

if Portland takes sullinger I would be so mad. He's an undersized center that struggles agains't length and is injury prone. Why would anyone (and especially the Blazers) take him in the top 10? He's strong and has good fundamentals, but he isn't worth the 6th pick.

[Norm2953]

Utah has to fill some needs of their own and does have a logjam of PF/C types.

Realistically, we're not going to find a starting caliber center out of this draft
but if we end up playing LA more at center, adding a tough PF who is big enough
to be an interchangeable part with LA, might not be a bad thing.

The problem with any deal with Jazz is the hatred their front office has with
Portland. It might be some time before the teams will be able to make any trades
which each other.

[Walton'sBeard!]

struggles agains't length

If you look at the handful of games he played against some of the best, long guys in the country you'll see his numbers were pretty close to his season averages

injury prone

I would love to see some proof of this. I used to think this until someone around here challenged me on it. I did some research and couldn't find any proof that he is injury prone.

he isn't worth the 6th pick.

We agree there. But I will be a bit sad to see us pass on him if he's there at #11.

[GeraldWallace3]

http://www.cleveland.com/livingston/ind ... l_sta.html

He missed the regular-season loss at Kansas with back spasms, one of a series of ailments that included a bad foot that made this year a trial and dimmed rosy projections of his NBA future. All season, the scouts who project potential and not production worried that Sullinger was "tweener"-sized with no NBA position.

There were some little things, but the thing that concerned me was when he sat out games due to back problems that they said were caused by the fact that he has one leg that is longer than the other. So he got hurt and had to sit out games from something that didn't happen on the court, he just got hurt because he was himself. Sound like another Ohio state center with one leg longer than the other?

also the struggles agains't length is just something I have heard a lot, I have no personal evidence.