Best player on the Celtics

[JingoWolf]

Rondo

[NO-KG-AI]

I wouldn't even take Rondo offensively over the course of a season/playoffs.

[drza]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

Seriously. Seriously. What this man is doing on defense is absolutely off the CHARTS. KG could arguably be the best player on the team for his consistent 20-10s, inside presence and combination of spacing and pick-setting on offense. But if you stop there you're missing the forest for the trees. Garnett's defense is absolutely buck-nutty right now. As great as Rondo has been this postseason (and mad props, he's been really good), this isn't really close.

[Mo26]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

.

[colts18]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

Seriously. Seriously. What this man is doing on defense is absolutely off the CHARTS. KG could arguably be the best player on the team for his consistent 20-10s, inside presence and combination of spacing and pick-setting on offense. But if you stop there you're missing the forest for the trees. Garnett's defense is absolutely buck-nutty right now. As great as Rondo has been this postseason (and mad props, he's been really good), this isn't really close.

small sample size

[AgEnT50]

KG

[WhateverBro]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

Seriously. Seriously. What this man is doing on defense is absolutely off the CHARTS. KG could arguably be the best player on the team for his consistent 20-10s, inside presence and combination of spacing and pick-setting on offense. But if you stop there you're missing the forest for the trees. Garnett's defense is absolutely buck-nutty right now. As great as Rondo has been this postseason (and mad props, he's been really good), this isn't really close.

Holy ****

[bastillon]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

Seriously. Seriously. What this man is doing on defense is absolutely off the CHARTS. KG could arguably be the best player on the team for his consistent 20-10s, inside presence and combination of spacing and pick-setting on offense. But if you stop there you're missing the forest for the trees. Garnett's defense is absolutely buck-nutty right now. As great as Rondo has been this postseason (and mad props, he's been really good), this isn't really close.

to be expected. Celtics suck outside of Garnett. Pierce is the only good player left.

[Slax]

After Game 2 of the ECF, basketballvalue had the Celtics defense (defense alone, mind you) as 27.8 points better when Garnett has been on the court than when he was off this postseason.

With KG on the court, the Celtics gave up 90.6 points/100 possessions (tops in the postseason among big-minute players)

With KG off the court, the Celtics gave up 118.5 points/100 possessions (worst in postseason among big-minute players)

You read that right...with KG on the court, the Celtics played the BEST defense in this postseason. With KG off the court, the Celtics played the WORST defense in this postseason. And this was after Game 2. So, what has happened in the last two games?

In game 3 the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 84% of their shots with him off the court.

Then, in game 4, the Heat made 35% of their field goals with Garnett on the court, and 75% with him off.

Seriously. Seriously. What this man is doing on defense is absolutely off the CHARTS. KG could arguably be the best player on the team for his consistent 20-10s, inside presence and combination of spacing and pick-setting on offense. But if you stop there you're missing the forest for the trees. Garnett's defense is absolutely buck-nutty right now. As great as Rondo has been this postseason (and mad props, he's been really good), this isn't really close.

That's not really a fair measure. Garnett is like the only healthy, not-terrible player the Celtics have who is over 6-8. Of course their defense is awful without Garnett. Not that Garnett isn't playing great, but context is important.

[colts18]

That's not really a fair measure. Garnett is like the only healthy, not-terrible player the Celtics have who is over 6-8. Of course their defense is awful without Garnett. Not that Garnett isn't playing great, but context is important.

So true. Their only other big man is Bass and he is more like an undersized PF, so no surprise if they suck defensively without him.

[G35]

That's not really a fair measure. Garnett is like the only healthy, not-terrible player the Celtics have who is over 6-8. Of course their defense is awful without Garnett. Not that Garnett isn't playing great, but context is important.

So true. Their only other big man is Bass and he is more like an undersized PF, so no surprise if they suck defensively without him.

The ECF is a small man's game it's like KG in a league of 6'8 and under. They were throwing over the top to KG because they knew no one could jump with KG (which is saying something) It's amazing that the Heat are competing without Bosh on the court which would change some of those stats. I mean the Heat are playing this lineup:

PG Chalmers
SG Wade
SF Battier
PF Lebron
C Haslem


You still have to score even if you are a defensive team:

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=320603002

Rudderless Without Rondo

Rajon Rondo sat out just six minutes of Game 4, and in that time the Celtics were outscored by six and didn't make a field goal within 20 feet of the basket.

With Rondo on the floor the Celtics FG% is 43.4 without him it is 22.2

[StojkoVrankovic]

Rudderless Without Rondo

Rajon Rondo sat out just six minutes of Game 4, and in that time the Celtics were outscored by six and didn't make a field goal within 20 feet of the basket.

With Rondo on the floor the Celtics FG% is 43.4 without him it is 22.2

This will not count somehow.

It is Rondo's fault that the team is getting older and is the worst offensive rebounding team in NBA history.

He makes peeople so mad and they start posting like irrational fools, the kid has been the best PG in the playoffs so far.

[drza]

I've seen a few rebuttal posts, so I'll reply together:

*Colts18 mentioned sample size being too small to look at Garnett's defensive impact
*Slax brought up that Garnett is the only good big man on the team
*G35 referenced the 6 minutes that Rondo sat out in game 4 as evidence of his offensive prowess

*So, a few thoughts in return. One, over (much) larger sample sizes, Garnett has measured out as the best defensive player according to APM for about the last decade. Going year-by-year, he has measured out in the top-5 of the defensive RAPM stats for 6 straight years, and has finished as number 1 in the league by a significant margin in 4 of those 6 years. His ridiculous defensive run in this postseason is extremely motivated and supported by additional data.

Also (as I've said before), though 17 games isn't a large enough sample of games to make a set-in-stone-conclusion about close data points (or make conclusions that run completely counter to all other data)...it is large enough that it's starting to get interesting. I believe Mystic posted in a recent thread that there aren't many more games required to get a sample large enough for a reasonable RAPM calculation. At this point the variance in a +/- sample may still be high, but if you get a result that is an outlier by several orders of magnitude the noise isn't as much of an issue.

So when you see that the Celtics' defense is 32.7 points better with Garnett on the floor this postseason than with him off through 17 games and almost 650 minutes on-court ...and that the next best Celtics are:

Avery Bradley (defense 11.1 points better in about 250 minutes before injury)
Marquis Daniels (4.4 points better in 80 minutes)
Mickeal Pietrus (2.37 points better in 323 minutes)

And NO OTHER ROTATION PLAYER IS ABOVE ZERO...

Now you're looking at an instance where the conclusion is starting to get more mathematically stable, despite the sample size. Not only is Garnett's result huge, but it is so far beyond any of his teammates on that end that noise and variance just don't seem to be a problem.

*So, with that in pocket, we can look at the Celtics' lack of quality bigs around him. One could certainly argue that the lack of depth could make Garnett's influence larger. On the other hand, that also gives him a larger chunk of the credit for the team's ultimate level. After all, as you guys just pointed out...there's nobody else even capable of playing any help defense for the Celtics. Right? And clearly the Celtics' perimeter players can't contain their assignments WITHOUT that help defense, because without Garnett the Cs' 122 defensive rating is the worst defensive unit in the entire league this postseason.

So really, by pointing out the lack of Celtics' quality bigs, it just makes what Garnett is doing defensively even more impressive. He's taking a bunch of perimeter players that apparently can't do ANYTHING defensively without him, and turning them into the #1 defensive unit in the playoffs as long as he's out there with them.

*Rondo's offensive impact...you didn't have to take a 6-minute sample to see that. Over the course of the playoffs he leads the Celtics in offensive on/off +/- (+13.4), showing his strong influence at that end of the court. As you'll note from my last post, I think Rondo has been doing a great job and I'm very happy that he has.

But for the scope of this thread, it has to be pointed out that Garnett's offensive impact thus far this postseason (on/off offensive +/- of +10.8) is strong as well...comparable, in fact, with Rondo's. But defensively, Garnett's dwarfing everyone right now, including Rondo. And if we're looking at who the best player is on the Celtics, which is the title of this thread, then we have to look at total impact. And when you factor in both ends of the court, Garnett is just better than Rondo. Solidly. Even at age 36.

[G35]

What I'm saying is that KG SHOULD be doing that. They have played the Sixers and the Heat. The Sixers best bigs are Hawes and Brand. The Heat's best big is Lebron.

KG's offense is nothing other than hitting shots that Rondo creates for him. That's KG's downfall he won't get his ass in the post once again and punish teams. I would love to see how the Celtics D would be against OKC. KG wouldn't be able to catch any of them....

[drza]

What I'm saying is that KG SHOULD be doing that. They have played the Sixers and the Heat. The Sixers best bigs are Hawes and Brand. The Heat's best big is Lebron.

KG's offense is nothing other than hitting shots that Rondo creates for him. That's KG's downfall he won't get his ass in the post once again and punish teams. I would love to see how the Celtics D would be against OKC. KG wouldn't be able to catch any of them....

And what I'm saying is, NOBODY should be expected to be able to do that. I'm willing to bet you that no player since they began tracking +/- stats has ever had their on/off split be the difference between the number 1 defensive unit and the dead-last defensive unit in the NBA playoffs through at least the Conference finals. I'm not even going to look it up (you're welcome to, by the way) but I feel pretty confident in saying that.

And obviously this isn't just a case of weak competition because again, as I pointed out, when KG is OFF the court that opposition is suddenly able to score like the Showtime Lakers. Again, this domination is too strong to explain away with the angles taken here thus far. If it were just a case of bad-scoring opponents, the Celtics' D would have better results with him off-court. If it were just a case of the other Celtics' bigs being bad that Garnett's influence looks larger, then the team result with him shouldn't be so good. Whether it's the opposing bigs or the opposing smalls that do the damage is hardly relevant...the point is that they DO do the damage when KG is off the court, but they can't when KG's on the court.

Now again, this is 17 games. Maybe over the next 2 games the Heat go nuts, win the series, and KG's defensive stats take a hit. Never know till it's all done, and as I've been saying, the final judgment on this season won't be passed until the playoffs end and we can get the full picture. But to date, which is all we can go by right now, Garnett's strong offense and otherworldly defense is what separates him from his teammates.

[ElGee]

Rudderless Without Rondo

Rajon Rondo sat out just six minutes of Game 4, and in that time the Celtics were outscored by six and didn't make a field goal within 20 feet of the basket.

With Rondo on the floor the Celtics FG% is 43.4 without him it is 22.2

This will not count somehow.

It is Rondo's fault that the team is getting older and is the worst offensive rebounding team in NBA history.

He makes peeople so mad and they start posting like irrational fools, the kid has been the best PG in the playoffs so far.

The offensive rebounding strategy is obviously taking away from the overall offense. One has to allow for that when they analyze how successful the offense is. At the same time, I've done some analysis on the effect of this and if we attempt to normalize for OREB strategy, the Celtics are still a -1.3 offense (-3.5 normally). The general point about the strength of the offense still stands.

[picc]

Rondo/Garnett is a tie for me. Garnett is the Celtics defense at this point, there is no Perkins to guard the other teams bigger player, and the backcourt has aged considerably and lost a lot of the talent to offseason or injuries (Bradley, T. Allen). No Garnett = no defense at this point.

Otoh, Rondo controls the offense and gives it fluidity. With no Rondo on the floor KG is getting the ball in the post and getting mostly tough fadeaways, which he can hit, but with Rondo he's getting much better shots and the offense in general has an identity. Especially against Miami, as Pierce can't score on Lebron and Ray isn't shooting much.

KG is more important to the D than Rondo to the O if for no othe reason than because Boston has no one else on D, and KG is probably more important to the O than Rondo is to the D as well.

And yet, it feels like when Rondo is having a great game its more impactful than when KG is, because as the PG everything runs through him on offense, and he compounds it with gigantic rebounds at crucial times. And perhaps because KG's defense remains consistent and you come to expect it. In terms of who's performances will most impact the C's success, i'd guess

Garnett/Rondo

Pierce

Ray Allen's semi-animated corpse

[StojkoVrankovic]

The offensive rebounding strategy is obviously taking away from the overall offense. One has to allow for that when they analyze how successful the offense is. At the same time, I've done some analysis on the effect of this and if we attempt to normalize for OREB strategy, the Celtics are still a -1.3 offense (-3.5 normally). The general point about the strength of the offense still stands.

So why is that, instead of just blaming Rondo.

Does the aging Big 3 have anything to do with that? Or the fact that the Celtics are a jump shooting team? He gets these guys great shots, at the right time, at their spots.

Like I said before, he has not only been the best PG in the playoffs but one of the best players.

[G35]

What I'm saying is that KG SHOULD be doing that. They have played the Sixers and the Heat. The Sixers best bigs are Hawes and Brand. The Heat's best big is Lebron.

KG's offense is nothing other than hitting shots that Rondo creates for him. That's KG's downfall he won't get his ass in the post once again and punish teams. I would love to see how the Celtics D would be against OKC. KG wouldn't be able to catch any of them....

And what I'm saying is, NOBODY should be expected to be able to do that. I'm willing to bet you that no player since they began tracking +/- stats has ever had their on/off split be the difference between the number 1 defensive unit and the dead-last defensive unit in the NBA playoffs through at least the Conference finals. I'm not even going to look it up (you're welcome to, by the way) but I feel pretty confident in saying that.

And obviously this isn't just a case of weak competition because again, as I pointed out, when KG is OFF the court that opposition is suddenly able to score like the Showtime Lakers. Again, this domination is too strong to explain away with the angles taken here thus far. If it were just a case of bad-scoring opponents, the Celtics' D would have better results with him off-court. If it were just a case of the other Celtics' bigs being bad that Garnett's influence looks larger, then the team result with him shouldn't be so good. Whether it's the opposing bigs or the opposing smalls that do the damage is hardly relevant...the point is that they DO do the damage when KG is off the court, but they can't when KG's on the court.

Now again, this is 17 games. Maybe over the next 2 games the Heat go nuts, win the series, and KG's defensive stats take a hit. Never know till it's all done, and as I've been saying, the final judgment on this season won't be passed until the playoffs end and we can get the full picture. But to date, which is all we can go by right now, Garnett's strong offense and otherworldly defense is what separates him from his teammates.

Wait you promote KG having all this defensive impact and I'm sure all the teams have the same numbers and then when KG is off the court and the Celtics are playing Brandon Bass at C and you wonder why teams start scoring more? That's on a lot of teams. When the opposing teams best big goes to the bench how many times do you hear announcers say this is a time to go on a run? Twice I heard JVG say that KG's time to go to the bench is coming up and that would be a good time for the Heat to go on a run.

I also have to pause at how much impact KG has when Lebron is killing the Celtics and they really have no answer for him. I also wonder how Haslem got 17 rebounds in yesterdays game. 2 more than KG in 12 less minutes. What KG is doing is what Wilt did for the Lakers. He is playing a specialist role where he is focusing on defense and giving what offense he can which is uncontested 15-20 ft shots.

The Celtics are getting out to big leads based on their defense. It's the Celtic outside shooting and Rondo penetration/dishing that's getting these 15+ point leads....

[G35]

This is why KG has these expectations:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... the-rescue

Heat can't up match up big man for big man
It is obvious that the Heat have been at a clear disadvantage underneath the basket since Bosh has been sidelined. Going against trees like the Indiana Pacers' Roy Hibbert and the Boston Celtics' Kevin Garnett, the Heat have struggled to overcome size in the paint. Believe it or not, the Heat have been outscored when those 7-footers have anchored the court since Bosh went down.

Check out these postseason numbers (Note: Hibbert's numbers are post-Game 1 after Bosh's injury):

---

Miami's score margin, Garnett on the floor: minus-19 in 153 minutes (minus-6.0 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin, Garnett off the floor: plus-25 in 49 minutes (plus-24.5 per 48 minutes).

Miami's score margin, Hibbert on the floor: minus-30 in 166 minutes (minus-8.7 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin, Hibbert off the floor: plus-60 in 74 minutes (plus-38.9 per 48 minutes).

Now let's put it all together:

Miami's score margin with Garnett/Hibbert on: minus-49 in 319 minutes (minus-7.4 per 48 minutes).
Miami's score margin with Garnett/Hibbert off: plus-85 in 123 minutes (plus-33.2 per 48 minutes).

---

Let that marinate for a second. Ever since Bosh has been in street clothes, the Heat have been outscored by 7.4 points every 48 minutes with the opposing elite 7-footer on the floor. But when he goes to the bench, the Heat feast like starving vultures. With Hibbert and Garnett off the floor, the Heat have blown out the competition by an average of 33.2 points every 48 minutes.

That is a swing of 40 points. That is also absurd.

What this tells us is that the Heat haven't been able to figure out how to deal with the 7-footers. They have just been incredibly opportunistic when Garnett and Hibbert check out of the game. James and Wade have attacked rabidly when the reserves check in, but when the opposing team's anchor patrols the paint, they haven't found consistent answers. Actually, they're just getting by.