Its time to make a play for a pick:

[mct]

Counting TOs as FGAs in the TS% formula, Kyle Lowry gets a .459 to Al's .492 this last season. Al's a much more efficient scorer than Lowry.

(And actually, TOs should count as more than a FGA because they never result in an offensive rebound.)

However, perhaps Lowry increases his teammates' efficiency through his passing more than Al does, but that effect is a lot harder to quantify.

Not saying I wouldn't trade Al for Lowry, but can we please stop comparing Al's offensive efficiency to another player without including TOs in the data? It ignores his greatest strength.

[StocktonShorts]

There's a stat called Offensive Rating which takes into account both turnovers and assists; it's an estimate of the points produced by that player per 100 possessions.

Kyle Lowry's career average is 112 (111 last year); Al's is 109 (112 last year).

It doesn't tell the whole story, but if you want to compare the offense of two guys who play very different roles and positions, it's probably the best metric to use.

[mct]

There's a stat called Offensive Rating which takes into account both turnovers and assists; it's an estimate of the points produced by that player per 100 possessions.

Kyle Lowry's career average is 112 (111 last year); Al's is 109 (112 last year).

It doesn't tell the whole story, but if you want to compare the offense of two guys who play very different roles and positions, it's probably the best metric to use.

It does seem to bring their value a lot closer to each other. Crazy that Al increased his ORtg even when his FG% dipped. I guess he did that by increasing his assist rate while further reducing his turnover rate. For someone who's not a natural passer, at least this shows he's trying.

[reapaman]

You are so out of touch with reality it hurts me to read your posts. For as much as you complain about Favors' scoring efficiency, and it needs to get a lot better I will admit, HE STILL HAS A BETTER TS% THAN AL JEFFERSON EVER HAS. You can complain about him being the focus of defenses all you want, but 52% TS is not going to cut it. Ever. Ever ever ever. And that's what Al is. You can't build an offense around that, even if he is the best in the league at limiting TOs. Get over it.

And Kyle Lowry is an excellent player who is coming into his prime. He's a defensive maven--not sure where that came from--and while his raw FG% is poor, his TS% is good (55%ish two years running) because he is INSANE at getting to the FT line where he shoots very well, and has become a solid threat from the 3 pt line as well. That makes him an efficient scorer, a great defender, an elite rebounder from the PG position, and a damn good team player who is motivated by the right things.

I'll take that over an endless procession of 9/19 nights from Al Jefferson where he never shoots one FT.

Did you try to prove a point by using TS%, LOL. Tyson chandler and deandre Jordan both have way higher TS% than LMA, Love, Griffin, Jefferson, david west, both gasols, ect.... and Joakim noah is only a few points lower than LMA and Love. Thats all I gotta say about that.

Look no matter how you spin it, Favors is bad offensively ala Chandler. But whatever, believe what you want. And I never said build around AL. All i was implying is that we gotta score to win. In many of these jazz fans proposed trades, you are trading our best offensive player and not getting a reliable offensive player in return or at least a young guy with the potential to be a great scorer. And i don't like tearing Favors down but all I'm saying is, if you think we are gonna run our offense through him then based on history you are likely going to be very dissapointed. I don't wanna run it through Al either but he's the best we got right now. Now if you guys made a trade like Al for a draft pick to get Jared Sullinger who has a chance of being a reliable offensive player (I know its debatable but besides the point) then thats fine but Al for avery bradley or 40% Lowry? Theres much better options than that, come on you guys can do better.

And Lowry isn't defensive anything. Mabey I went too far calling him defensless or whatever but he's not that good. He's one of those high effort defenders not one with high skill/great tools. You can tell the difference. And while high effort sounds great, hes gotta be our top playmaker if he comes here which takes alot of energy out of him doing that. Asking him to play good defense too is asking to much. Now if we signed Lowery in the off season at a good price thats a different story but I'm not trading him for AL.

[erudite23]

Counting TOs as FGAs in the TS% formula, Kyle Lowry gets a .459 to Al's .492 this last season. Al's a much more efficient scorer than Lowry.

(And actually, TOs should count as more than a FGA because they never result in an offensive rebound.)

However, perhaps Lowry increases his teammates' efficiency through his passing more than Al does, but that effect is a lot harder to quantify.

Not saying I wouldn't trade Al for Lowry, but can we please stop comparing Al's offensive efficiency to another player without including TOs in the data? It ignores his greatest strength.

I very specifically didn't exclude the effect of his low TO rate. But the point still remains. He's just not efficient enough. He's markedly below the league AVERAGE in TS, and one of the biggest benefits of his scoring ability--the fact that teams are willing to run an extra defender at him at times--is negated by his horrible court vision and unwillingness to give the ball up.

I'm not saying Lowry is worlds better than him or anything. I just think they're comparable players, and Lowry fits what we need far better than Al does, at a far lesser dollar amount and doesn't have to be treated like 'The Man' to get production out of him.


As for Reapaman's regurgitated nonsense above......I'm not saying that Favors is a better scorer than Al Jefferson. Simply that he is more efficient in the shots he takes. Which is fascinating, given the fact that you complain incessantly about Favors poor scoring efficiency, but NEVER acknowledge that Al is a black hole on offense.

[reapaman]

You can be as efficeint as you want but you can get only so many put backs and dunks per game ask chandler.

As for AL, I have addressed Al's blackholeness in other threads and I have said he has changed big time. This year his assist rating and apg have been by far the highest its ever been and almost the same as millsap which wasn't even remotely the case last year (this considering he playing less minutes and the team is shooting worse than last year so he's losing more potential assist). In the playoffs he achieved 16.6 assist rating and 2.5 apg. If he carries that over to next season he will be entering top 3 range among starting big man. No one bothered to point that out. He's no longer a black hole, drop it. I see it on the court and got the stats to help prove it. He's ready to play team ball and i expect him to be better next year.

[erudite23]

He went from being bottom 1/3 to middle of the pack. And when you consider the number of opportunities that he gets for assists versus how many he capitalizes on, it makes it even worse.

And don't use a 4 game sample from the playoffs to try to prove anything. Its statistically irrelevant. The gap between Millsap and he (even before you factor in all the extra opportunities that Jefferson gets that Paul doesn't) is HUGE. A two point gap on the margin is the difference between mediocre and good. Between good and excellent. Between excellent and elite. It's a big deal. Its not 'almost the same.'


However, this isn't to ignore the fact that he was much better this season. I will concede that he made a big step forward. He is no longer a black hole. He is merely selfish or blind.

[russnumber3]

He went from being bottom 1/3 to middle of the pack. And when you consider the number of opportunities that he gets for assists versus how many he capitalizes on, it makes it even worse.

And don't use a 4 game sample from the playoffs to try to prove anything. Its statistically irrelevant. The gap between Millsap and he (even before you factor in all the extra opportunities that Jefferson gets that Paul doesn't) is HUGE. A two point gap on the margin is the difference between mediocre and good. Between good and excellent. Between excellent and elite. It's a big deal. Its not 'almost the same.'


However, this isn't to ignore the fact that he was much better this season. I will concede that he made a big step forward. He is no longer a black hole. He is merely selfish or blind.

But Erudite, your fellow Jefferson haters use the 4-1 span when Jefferson was injured to show that our offense is better without him. I also would argue its too small of a time frame to know anything.

Anyways, I agree with what both of you guys are saying to some extent. Reapaman is absolutely right when we says we can't afford to trade Al without getting a solid offensive player because Favors is not very good offensively (Despite what so many people here think) And at the same time Al isn't the ideal piece to run your offense around, at least not if your culture is one of team basketball. What Al does provide now is some structure to the offense...like it or not, he is our best, most consistent weapon.

I do, however, see Lowry as a similarly very good offensive player, and would love a trade for him. I think he is a border-line all star who can take over a game in crunch time.

[finnegan]

And don't use a 4 game sample from the playoffs to try to prove anything. Its statistically irrelevant.

Playoff games are a special animal, and are statistically relevent. They are a measure of how a player produces when the intensity of play is consistent throughout the entire game and the stakes of each possesion are high. Unfortunately, the sample size is smaller, but they are different enough to be in their own category and probably even seperate from regular season games.

It could be argued that playoff games are an even better measure of a players ability to "deliver".

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

Just wanna point out that the Jazz have gone into see Lillard workout before his private workouts begin. They were one of 4 teams to go into see him.

[Reckless]

He is merely selfish or blind.

He's not the only one.