2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[closg00]

Post-measurements and work-outs, Leonard has shot-up the mocks past Zeller, no-one knew ahout the T-Rex arms.

Zeller averaged 25 and 8 in the NCAAs. He improved his rebounding dramatically, and even had a 20/20 game with Henson out. He almost made 80% of his FTs. Tyler was the ACC POTY. He had a much higher PER than Harrison Barnes (but not John Henson, FWIW). He was also UNCs first Academic All America. He graduated with a 3.62 average. He consistently improved on the court, while excelling in the classroom and in life.

And all many detractors do is to hone in on a measurement that says Tyler Zeller has an 8'8" standing reach! It is inanely dumb and myopic IMO to conclude that his standing reach will hold Tyler Zeller back in the NBA.

When he is beating big men down the floor are his short arms going to slow him down? On a pick-and-roll, is he going to be unable to catch lobs for slams because of his short arms?

Zeller will still probably be taken in the lottery, I was just speculating as to why Leonard may have past Zeller. For all we know Leonard could be thre next Joe Alexander.

[closg00]

The Trail Blazers were one of "many teams" who were disappointed with Connecticut swingman Jeremy Lamb's pre-draft workouts.

Lamb acknowledged that teams want to see his "motor" and whether he can stand up to NBA contact, and he didn't help himself by failing to shoot well during drills. Another strike against him for Portland came during a media interview -- when asked whether he knew "anything about" the Blazers, he struggled to name LaMarcus Aldridge, then said he knew of "the light-skinned dude," who turned out to be Nicolas Batum.

Yep, don't know who is agent is, but you would think that he would have come better prepared for everything, he is really going to have to wow in private workouts to boost his stock-up again.

[fishercob]

I must say I don't find the draft discussion at this time of year to be particularly insightful or illuminating. From an evaluation standpoint, anything that comes to light publicly right now is really insignificant to me relative to a players' body of work playing actual competitive basketball.

I appreciate models like YODA because they at least try to make sense of the most valuable tool we have out our disposal -- a big pile of usable data -- to tell us who was actually good and based on the past college/pro performance of others, who might be good going forward.

If teams are forming opinions of a players' skillset now, they are way, way behind the curve. I think this time of year is valuable for the interview process and the medical evaluations, and I think we probably get a minute amount of what teams actually learn during these evaluations (these headlines that such and such a team was "blown away" by this interviewee or that a certain prospect was unimpressive strike me as front office and agent posturing).

I will be happy when we have actual basketball to talk about again.

[sfam]

Regarding MKG and the observation that his biggest strength is defense I would submit the following; there isn't an NBA player to my knowledge that could stop, LBJ, Wade, Durant, etc. one-on-one. The NBA is all about team defense, therefore the value of C. Singleton and MKG need to be discounted as they, like all other NBA players, can't lock down the better players in the league. Until they become competent offensive players their value is greatly diminished.

I do hold out hope that Singleton and MKG will eventually become better offensively but let's not pretend that it is a foregone conclusion. In other words, it is unrealized potential (i.e. a big gamble)

I don't think we should conclude that because nobody can stop LeBron, Wade or Durant, that defense no longer matters. Turns out there's other players besides them who can consistently hit shots, but who can get defended very well. Superstars are in a category onto themselves. Yeah, MKG is probably not going to flatline Kobe's stats, but I'm guessing he can significantly impact a good number of players.

[sfam]

The Trail Blazers were one of "many teams" who were disappointed with Connecticut swingman Jeremy Lamb's pre-draft workouts.

Lamb acknowledged that teams want to see his "motor" and whether he can stand up to NBA contact, and he didn't help himself by failing to shoot well during drills. Another strike against him for Portland came during a media interview -- when asked whether he knew "anything about" the Blazers, he struggled to name LaMarcus Aldridge, then said he knew of "the light-skinned dude," who turned out to be Nicolas Batum.

Yep, don't know who is agent is, but you would think that he would have come better prepared for everything, he is really going to have to wow in private workouts to boost his stock-up again.

I'm guessing the agent did try to prepare him, and this is still the result. Yeah, I agree, lets stay away from talented knuckleheads like Jeremy Lamb appears to be.

[sfam]

I feel confident that Wall at 21 and MKG at 18 will work to no end to become competent shooters. To write both off as being doomed to be nothing more than bad shooters seems a little presumptive.

And offensive skill is much more than just knocking down a jump shot.

Like most things in selecting draft picks it comes down to risk. There is a risk that Mkg won't develop a good shot, but I think the reward with MKG is higher than Beal and perhaps Robinson. I now think our lowest risk option is Beal, because he excels at a huge area of need for the Wizards. He's as close to NBA ready as he can be with one year of playing, and clearly can contribute big time next year. But three years down the road, we might be looking at MKG being an all-star level player (or perhaps, just a role player), while Beal is just a solid starter.

That said, EG seems to like to shoot for the fences as far as athletic types are, so it wouldn't at all surprise me if we went MKG if Robinson is taken second - in fact I would be surprised if he didn't.

I don't think there is a book on what Ted/EG will do. What people see as EGs past doesn't mean it is what will happen with Ted as the owner. You have two drafts to draw from. I would focus there. A Ted/EG team wouldn't draft a Nick Young. But with that said, I don't even think you can draw what they would do from those two drafts because that is what they did with an eye on being good a few years in the future. They went zero offense in the last draft because it was a PLANNED TANK. The tank is over and so is most of the tear down ( Lewis and dray remain). Now they are focusing on getting better now.

They are also focusing on fit and character/personality. I say there is zero chance they take a chance of a project like Drummond with a top pick. But I could see the Kings taking him at 5

CHA will most likely take Robinson so its going to come down to Beal or MKG and Beal. That is a tough call. There are valid reason to choice either.

If they go Beal, they would have PG and SG locked down for years to come. They have a stop gap post leader in Nene for a few years. KS is looking like a beastly scoring machine in the post with a feather soft touch from 12. Ves is the question that needs answered. What will be become ? Ves is that project that is all energy and intangibles that needs to add a shot. He only got part of one year with no summer camp. How much he grows over the summer and next year is going to have have a big impact on how this team is set up moving forward. Because they have their MGK project already in Ves, I think they go Beal.

To pick MKG is to ask on simple question. Can he significantly slow down LeBron or Durrant.

PS. Just watched the Royce White video. Very interesting. I will look forward to watching him in the NBA. Baby Griff meets Barkley.

I'm still not sold that CHA takes Robinson. I think there is a difference between Robinson's and MKG's leadership - one that might sway them to pick MKG #2. That said, I like your reasoning with Beal - all things being equal, if the top 3 cluster out with around the same talent level, I'd agree with taking Beal - he fills our greatest need. If we're taking MKG, I think we are in effect saying that we think his shot will improve to the point that it won't be a serious issue in a year or two. I don't think you take a defender only at #3. And again, I think our choice will be Robinson or Beal - I don't like Robinson's low block numbers - that worries me. But we could do worse than a 20 and 10 PF with one block a game.

[sfam]

I must say I don't find the draft discussion at this time of year to be particularly insightful or illuminating. From an evaluation standpoint, anything that comes to light publicly right now is really insignificant to me relative to a players' body of work playing actual competitive basketball.

I appreciate models like YODA because they at least try to make sense of the most valuable tool we have out our disposal -- a big pile of usable data -- to tell us who was actually good and based on the past college/pro performance of others, who might be good going forward.

If teams are forming opinions of a players' skillset now, they are way, way behind the curve. I think this time of year is valuable for the interview process and the medical evaluations, and I think we probably get a minute amount of what teams actually learn during these evaluations (these headlines that such and such a team was "blown away" by this interviewee or that a certain prospect was unimpressive strike me as front office and agent posturing).

I will be happy when we have actual basketball to talk about again.

Common man, when else do we get to used dinosaur references in our bball discussions? I've seen both Pterodactyl arms (Drummond) and T-Rex arms (Zeller) used here. I'm still waiting for the velociraptor reference, as in, "Dude, MKG is an absolute velociraptor on defense!"

[Ruzious]

I blame the boredom on Hoopa's absence. We need the innovator of BOYD back here to raise the talent level. Fwiw, I'm convinced Thomas Robinson will be the 2nd pick. For a team that needs everything, a big is better than a 2 or a 3, Robinson is the BPA at this point, and he could help raise Byombo's play much like he helped raised Withey's play. Also, it looks like their fans want Robinson. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=1183770&start=1080 Right now, Drummond is second in their poll. If they pick Drummond... MJ and Cho are going to get holy heck.

[Zonkerbl]

When are the stupid vertical leap measurements coming out?!?!?!

[Severn Hoos]

Interesting mock draft updated today at nbadraft.net

Has Kim English at #46 with the Wiz pick. I'd be OK with that. Not crazy about Tony Wroten at #32, but the back half of the 20s has all the guys I would want at our pick - DLamb, Jenkins, Melo, Ezeli.

Mike Scott up to #37. This makes me think that he did very well on the strength & agility tests, which I expected. Same height & weight as Robinson, but his body fat was surprisingly high. He looked to be in great shape this year, maybe he's slacked off in the offseason? Not saying I'd take him if I were the Wiz, but I do think he'll be a useful player for someone. And I can't wait to see the full list of agility scores.

BUT - Drummond at 2 and Robinson at 3? Yikes, don't see that happening. Well, I've been wrong before, so I won't flip if it does happen. Besides, I think the Cats' board would be in meltdown if they do take Mr. Drummond. (a Diffrent Strokes reference for you old guys out there...)

Other than that, I have to agree with fish, not much of substance to talk about, we just keep promoting our favorite prospect or tearing down the others.

That said - I hope it stays like this until Draft Night. The only "hard news" I want to hear is how the Wiz managed to make a deal for the #1 overall pick (a Webber-style 3-for-1?).

OK, that won't happen. So if there is a press conference, it's a bad day, get ready for another Miller-Foye special....

[TheBigThree]

I can easily see MJ going with Drummond. Not a stretch to me at all.

Drummond seems like an MJ pick to me just as much as MKG seems like a EG pick.

[payitforward]

Post-measurements and work-outs, Leonard has shot-up the mocks past Zeller, no-one knew ahout the T-Rex arms.

Zeller averaged 25 and 8 in the NCAAs. He improved his rebounding dramatically, and even had a 20/20 game with Henson out. He almost made 80% of his FTs. Tyler was the ACC POTY. He had a much higher PER than Harrison Barnes (but not John Henson, FWIW). He was also UNCs first Academic All America. He graduated with a 3.62 average. He consistently improved on the court, while excelling in the classroom and in life.

And all many detractors do is to hone in on a measurement that says Tyler Zeller has an 8'8" standing reach! It is inanely dumb and myopic IMO to conclude that his standing reach will hold Tyler Zeller back in the NBA.

When he is beating big men down the floor are his short arms going to slow him down? On a pick-and-roll, is he going to be unable to catch lobs for slams because of his short arms?

What CCJ said. These kinds of measurements mean just about nothing.

[payitforward]

I believe Beal is as talented as TRob, MKG or anyone else who might be available with the third pick. The fact that he also addresses the Zards need for a great shooting wing player is an added benefit.

What he said. If anything, he is *more* talented than either TRob or MK-G at his position. Not to ding MK-G at all, but Beal is so far along in development at 18; it really sticks out. As to TRob, I don't see how he'll be an impact player -- though of course I could be wrong. He played well in college; he's a good player. That's about as far as I can take it.

[BruceO]

6' 7.75" 6' 8.75" 244 7' 3.25" 8' 10" 5.0

6' 7.25" 6' 8.75" 248 7' 1.5" 9' 0" 10.8 29.0 34.5 19 11.03 3.23

6' 7" 6' 8.25" 239 7' 0.25" 8' 11" 7.7 30.0 35.0 19 11.06 3.24

one is michael beasley, another is derrick williams and another is Thomas Robinson. It'll be interesting to see how he does in NBA but I don't expect him to be able to block shots or defend a switch. He will be good though, wide body makes him be able to box out more effectively and he is strong with little fat on his body. Will be able to score as well. The deal breaker is he struggles against length and wouldn't be a deterrent to people driving towards the hoop.

I've mentioned a few times a new possibility of Austin Rivers vs Beal. Stylistically they are different but both can be good. Is there possibly a deal in place to reach back and get him while taking on salary? We are working him out while he is supposedly way out of our draft range. Why? are we just simply doing due dilligence on the differences between him and beal or? Plus couple that with that fact that he has a draft promise makes you wonder who has made that promise and has it been made on behalf of another team. If its on behalf of another team we are the obvious choice because we are the only ones working him out way out of draft position. This may not necessarily mean not taking Beal. It would actually amuse me to high heaven if we pull a redskins and draft rg3 plus kirk cousins by taking Beal then taking Rivers. We would have an interesting guard quartet.

I've considred drummond as well but don't think this team is willing to take on that project or the perry project unless the perry project is acquired with a later pick. Like gil said you have too many projects and soon you living in the ghetto. I do think down the line he is going to be very solid defensively and in rebounding. May need to get smarter. Perry gets more aggresive or succeeds in learning the SF position and he will become a monster as well. Barnes is apparently very good friends with Kyrie and they have the same good guy vibe so I would not be surprised given their relationship if they pick him over Beal, MKG people love his intangibles and is a winner and has a work ethic so I can see us going that route as well but I think realistically the pick is between MKG, Beal and TROB. I have no idea what charlotte may do but every option seems dreary as far as they go...
If they pick TRob I see draft order being ( my mock)
1.New orleans Davis,
2. Charlotte TRob,
3. Washington MKG,
4. Cleveland Barnes
5. Sacramento Drummond
6. Trailblazers Beal
7. Warriors Perry jones
8. Raptors Jeremy Lamb
9. Pistons Henson or Zeller
10. New Orleans Austin Rivers ( which will be sent to us with Emeka okafor or Trevor Ariza

Problem is I find it hard to see them taking Trob because I think he may end up being Derrick Williams 2.0 ( atleast on defence). Remember how people were so sure he'd be a massive scorer because of his efficiency numbers but both struggled with length or couldn't block many shots. I think this is a super important thing to do as a big man.

[BruceO]

Interesting read here as well

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-are-th ... their-pick

[payitforward]

Starting to be some complaints that the discussion is boring and repetitive. Ok, here is something provocative: can someone explain to me why TRob is a better prospect than Jae Crowder? Except, can you do it without mentioning TRob's measurements? Do it based on performance, in other words.

Both guys played the 4 in college at big programs, right?

Robinson is certainly a better rebounder. Every 40 minutes last season, he got 14.9 boards -- 4.7 more than Crowder. Big difference; big plus for his team.

Unfortunately, he turned the ball over 3.4 times in that same stretch to only 1.5 times for Crowder. That narrows the gap to +2.8 for Robinson. Still, that's a ball possession difference for his team. Helps them win.

Then again, Crowder stole the ball 3.1 times in those 40 minutes; Robinson only 1.4 times. Again, that narrows the gap. Still, Robinson had a better effect on ball possession. He gave his team 1.1 extra possessions over Crowder. Every possession helps, so good for him.

How about shooting? Well, Robinson scored 1 more point every 40 minutes than Robinson. But to get that extra point, he had to shoot the ball 1.7 more times and go to the line 2.1 more times. (There go those extra 1.1 possessions!)

Crowder's eFG% was .57; Robinson's .51. Crowder's TS% was .60 to .55 for Robinson.

Crowder had slightly more assists, slightly more blocks, and slightly fewer fouls than Robinson.

Robinson couldn't shoot the college 3-ball. Crowder did it reasonably well.

Again, someone tell me -- why is Robinson a better NBA prospect than Crowder? And if the answer is "because he rebounds more", then you also have to accept the evidence for Crowder that "he turns it over less, steals it more, shoots it better." All the numbers have to count, not just the ones you like. On the other hand, if the reason is "he's taller" then I'll happily repeat this post substituting Drew Gordon for Crowder.

[Ruzious]

I can easily see MJ going with Drummond. Not a stretch to me at all.

Drummond seems like an MJ pick to me just as much as MKG seems like a EG pick.

It seems to me that putting Bismack with Drummond would be a horrible mess. They're both very talented, but they both have to play center, and they're both offensively unskilled. It could turn out like Blatche/McGee.

[BruceO]

http://nbadraft.net/2012-nba-combine-measurements

lol quincy miller having a 9 1' standing reach as a small forward. That dude is long

[nate33]

Starting to be some complaints that the discussion is boring and repetitive. Ok, here is something provocative: can someone explain to me why TRob is a better prospect than Jae Crowder? Except, can you do it without mentioning TRob's measurements? Do it based on performance, in other words.

Both guys played the 4 in college at big programs, right?

Robinson is certainly a better rebounder. Every 40 minutes last season, he got 14.9 boards -- 4.7 more than Crowder. Big difference; big plus for his team.

Unfortunately, he turned the ball over 3.4 times in that same stretch to only 1.5 times for Crowder. That narrows the gap to +2.8 for Robinson. Still, that's a ball possession difference for his team. Helps them win.

Then again, Crowder stole the ball 3.1 times in those 40 minutes; Robinson only 1.4 times. Again, that narrows the gap. Still, Robinson had a better effect on ball possession. He gave his team 1.1 extra possessions over Crowder. Every possession helps, so good for him.

How about shooting? Well, Robinson scored 1 more point every 40 minutes than Robinson. But to get that extra point, he had to shoot the ball 1.7 more times and go to the line 2.1 more times. (There go those extra 1.1 possessions!)

Crowder's eFG% was .57; Robinson's .51. Crowder's TS% was .60 to .55 for Robinson.

Crowder had slightly more assists, slightly more blocks, and slightly fewer fouls than Robinson.

Robinson couldn't shoot the college 3-ball. Crowder did it reasonably well.

Again, someone tell me -- why is Robinson a better NBA prospect than Crowder? And if the answer is "because he rebounds more", then you also have to accept the evidence for Crowder that "he turns it over less, steals it more, shoots it better." All the numbers have to count, not just the ones you like. On the other hand, if the reason is "he's taller" then I'll happily repeat this post substituting Drew Gordon for Crowder.

Robinson can play his natural position at the NBA level. His role will be essentially the same so there is reason to believe that his performance will be similar (minus the affect of playing against superior competition). Crowder cannot hope to be able to guard NBA power forwards. We must therefore assume that he can be as productive at the SF or SG position in the pros as he was at the PF in college. That's a big assumption and causes a lot of uncertainty.

[Dat2U]

Post-measurements and work-outs, Leonard has shot-up the mocks past Zeller, no-one knew ahout the T-Rex arms.

Zeller averaged 25 and 8 in the NCAAs. He improved his rebounding dramatically, and even had a 20/20 game with Henson out. He almost made 80% of his FTs. Tyler was the ACC POTY. He had a much higher PER than Harrison Barnes (but not John Henson, FWIW). He was also UNCs first Academic All America. He graduated with a 3.62 average. He consistently improved on the court, while excelling in the classroom and in life.

And all many detractors do is to hone in on a measurement that says Tyler Zeller has an 8'8" standing reach! It is inanely dumb and myopic IMO to conclude that his standing reach will hold Tyler Zeller back in the NBA.

When he is beating big men down the floor are his short arms going to slow him down? On a pick-and-roll, is he going to be unable to catch lobs for slams because of his short arms?

I know there's some question regarding the accuracy of the measurements but for now let's assume that Tyler Zeller has a standing reach of 8'8".

If it's so insanely dumb and myopic to conclude that a standing reach measurement will hold Zeller back then all I ask is you find me one example, just one. Not two, not three. Just one single solitary example since they've kept such measurements where a big man with an 8'8" (or even 8'8".5") standing reach turned out to be effective NBA big . Again, were assuming just for this argument, that measurement is correct.