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2012 NBA Draft - Part V

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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#281 » by dobrojim » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:50 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:[snip]
Also, there were 38 PFs in the NBA with a PER of 15 or better. There were 23 SGs (and 18 SFs). In fact, PF is the position with the most 15+ PER players in the league. So it's much easier to find a good PF than it is to find a good SG (or SF).

Regarding Booker and Seraphin, both are still developing, 2nd year players.

Among NBA PFs, Seraphin was 34th and Booker 36th in PER (both of which were major improvements over their rookie years). It's not a stretch to imagine that they'll further improve this season.

If you rate Seraphin among centers, his ranking rises to 24th.


when I read this, my first thought is that maybe PER isn't that valuable when
comparing players at different positions, that it values the stats that PFs
produce more than what SF/SGs do. Alternatively, PER may be saying that
PFs ARE more important than SF/SGs.

Also if PER is adjusted so that league average = 15, if you have the same number
of PFs as SFs or SGs, you should have about the same number of players above and
below that figure...assuming league average is median, not the arithmetic mean.

or maybe I am totally not getting what PER is trying to describe and how it is designed
to do that.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#282 » by jivelikenice » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:51 pm

nate33 wrote:He's got Foye beat in every physical and athletic measurement except lane agility.


Foye has him beat on the sprint and the lane agility. Beal also only has one inch on Foye on the max vertical and the no step vertical.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#283 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:52 pm

Perry Jones is surprisingly strong for such a long, wiry guy. 11 bench presses.

Marcus Denmon has elite athleticism. He's near the top of his class in lane agility, sprint, no step vertical and max vertical. He appears to have the athleticism to guard NBA PG's so he might be very effective alongside Wall.

MKG is surprisingly ordinary in all categories except the sprint.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#284 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:57 pm

Food for thought:

Code: Select all

Name          HTnoSH   Wgt  Span    Reach  NSVt  MxVt  Aglty  Sprint
Bradley Beal  6'3.25"  202  6'8"    8'4"   33    39    10.95  3.28 
John Wall     6'2.75"  196  6'9.25" 8'5.5" 30    39    10.84  3.14 
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#285 » by TGW » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:58 pm

Dat2U wrote:
TGW wrote:None of these guys are finished products...obviously each player has significant holes in their game they need to work on. Barnes' problem is completely mental--physically, athletically, and skillwise he is already superior to 90% of the players in the league. It is the responsibility of the team picking him to help him get over that mental hump and help him improve his basketball IQ. I'm not convinced the Wizards staff would bring it out of him, but that doesn't dismiss the fact that he passes the eye test.


Why would we want a player like that? We might as well draft PJ III then. There's legitimate questions about whether Barnes loves the game. And saying Barnes is superior to 90% of the NBA skill wise and athletically is a massive overstatement. If he was so great skill wise and athletically you think he would have found a way to get to the rim more in college.


It's not a massive overstatement that a player who is 6'8 with a 40" vertical, a 3.16 sprint time, and bench 185 15 times is superior athletically to 90% of league. I'm looking at the database and only a handful of guys actually have achieved those type of metrics. And like I said, the reason he didn't get to the rim more had to do with his basketball IQ, not his skill. I'm sure if he actually wanted to, he'd be able to get to the rim everytime in college--it's just easier to settle for long jumpshots. This goes back to his head, not his ability.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#286 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:03 pm

A comparison of the shooting guards in this draft class:

Code: Select all

Name           HTnoSH   Wgt  Span     Reach    NSVt  MxVt  Aglty  Sprint
Bradley Beal   6'3.25"  202  6'8"     8'4"     33    39    10.95  3.28 
Jeremy Lamb    6'4"     179  6'11"    8'6"     31.5  38    10.98  3.25 
Terrence Ross  6'6"     197  6'7.25"  8'4.5"   31    37.5  11.78  3.28 
Kim English    6'4.5"   192  6'6.5"   8'2"     29    36.5  10.59  3.33 
Tony Wroten    6'4.75"  203  6'9"     8'5"     30    35.5  10.75  3.24   
Will Barton    6'5"     174  6'9.75"  8'6.5"   30    34    12.5   3.6   
Doron Lamb     6'3.25"  199  6'6.75"  8'2.5"   29    33.5  11.12  3.41 
William Buford 6'4"     215  6'9.5"   8'6"     27.5  32.5  11.4   3.43 

Going by reach, Barton, Buford and J.Lamb are the tallest with unquestionable SG size. Wroten, Beal and Ross are next and are at the lower end of the acceptable range for an NBA SG. D.Lamb and English may have problems matching up.

Going by jumping ability, Beal is the best with Jeremy Lamb and Ross close behind. Buford looks a bit unathletic here.

They're all very similar in lane agility except Barton and Ross are way behind and Kim English is a cut above. They're all very similar in sprint except for Barton who is a step slow.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#287 » by Ruzious » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:05 pm

jivelikenice wrote:
nate33 wrote:Bradley Beal versus other similarly built shooting guards:

Code: Select all

Name           HTnoSH    Wgt  Wingspan  Reach  NStpV MaxV  Aglty  Sprint
Bradley Beal   6'3.25"   202  6'8"      8'4"   33    39    10.95  3.28 
Tony Allen     6'3.5"    214  6'9"      8'6"   31.5  36.5  10.7   3.19 
Randy Foye     6'2.25"   212  6'6.25"   8'1"   32    38    10.53  3.23 
O.J. Mayo      6'3.25"   200  6'6"      8'3.5" 30.5  41    11.04  3.14 
Eric Gordon    6'2"      222  6'9"      8'3"   32    40    10.81  3.01 
James Harden   6'4"      222  6'10.75"  8'7.5" 31.5  37    11.1   3.13 
M. Thornton    6'2.75"   194  6'5"      8'3"   31    33    10.73  3.28 


The comp that bugs me for Beal is Foye. I think Beal will ultimately be a better shooter but I'm still worried his dribble drive game will closely resemble that of Foye's. Robinson to me is still the the #1 option for us. Beal's testing has put to bed my worries over his athleticism; but I'm still concerned about why he didn't shoot well from the field or from the ft line, and my previous concern over his dribble drive game. The mechanics on his shot look great, but is there something we're missing in terms of release point, or quickness of his release that pushed the numbers down?

The problem with his shooting percentage is - He was a freshman. Freshman guards typically don't shoot for good percentages, and they typically improve. He's still 18 years old. It really is that simple.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#288 » by Benjammin » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:06 pm

With these results, I'm comfortable with Beal being the top target at 3. I've cooled somewhat on Robinson, so that means MKG would be fine also. Hopefully EFG doesn't fall in love with Harrison Barnes and he's the pick at 3.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#289 » by TGW » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:08 pm

The Foye comparison does scare the heck out of me. Many were saying the same about Foye back then that they were saying about Beal now. They measurables are eerily similar.

Damn, you guys sure know how to deflate a guy's optimism. :(

Thomas Robinson it is then.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#290 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:10 pm

Why is everyone scared about the Foye comparison while not being excited about how he compares to Gordon and Harden? He's practically a carbon copy of Gordon, particularly if he grows another half inch or so.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#291 » by fishercob » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:18 pm

nate33 wrote:Why is everyone scared about the Foye comparison while not being excited about how he compares to Gordon and Harden? He's practically a carbon copy of Gordon, particularly if he grows another half inch or so.


The Foye comparisons make little sense. Foye played four years at Villanova. Beal's freshmen numbers blow Foye's away. Beal's measurables as a frosh are better than Foye's as a senior. I'm not concerned that Beal well end up like Foye at all.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#292 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:26 pm

Anthony Davis didn't do any of the leaping/agility/strength stuff?
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#293 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:30 pm

Ultimately, these measurements might be bad news for Washington. Originally, I was sure that Beal would be on the board at #3, but now I think Charlotte will be choosing between Robinson and Beal. I think the measurements will cause MKG to slip out of their consideration. MKG looks like he'll fall to 4th or 5th now.

Robinson probably held his own with the measurements, but he didn't really help himself all that much. His lane agility could be a red flag, but his sprint is exceptional.

Drummond impressed with his lane agility and no-step vertical so he could be in the mix as well.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#294 » by verbal8 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:31 pm

nate33 wrote:Why is everyone scared about the Foye comparison while not being excited about how he compares to Gordon and Harden? He's practically a carbon copy of Gordon, particularly if he grows another half inch or so.


If compare college stats Beal as a freshman looks better than like Foye as a Junior. Also Foye had a bit of a red flag with his 2Pt fg% his freshman and sophomore year. Also Foye is one of those guys who just seems to fall short of what he should be able to do, without any really solid explanation(you could say that about a lot of his draft class - Gay, Tyrus Thomas, OPech, Farmar).

I don't think Beal will automatically have the success that Gordon or Harden did, but there isn't a strong arugment to expect him to be as disappointing as Foye
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#295 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:35 pm

My mock:
1. New Orleans - Davis
2. Charlotte - Robinson
3. Washington - Beal
4. Cleveland - Barnes
5. Sacramento - MKG
6. Portland - Drummond

I think everyone comes away pretty happy because they filled a need.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#296 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:36 pm

Well in Foye's defense I believe he suffered a knee injury in Minnesota which robbed him of much of his athleticism. He seemed to be more of a slasher in college and became more of a spot up shooter after the injury.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#297 » by jivelikenice » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:39 pm

Ruzious wrote:
jivelikenice wrote:
nate33 wrote:Bradley Beal versus other similarly built shooting guards:

Code: Select all

Name           HTnoSH    Wgt  Wingspan  Reach  NStpV MaxV  Aglty  Sprint
Bradley Beal   6'3.25"   202  6'8"      8'4"   33    39    10.95  3.28 
Tony Allen     6'3.5"    214  6'9"      8'6"   31.5  36.5  10.7   3.19 
Randy Foye     6'2.25"   212  6'6.25"   8'1"   32    38    10.53  3.23 
O.J. Mayo      6'3.25"   200  6'6"      8'3.5" 30.5  41    11.04  3.14 
Eric Gordon    6'2"      222  6'9"      8'3"   32    40    10.81  3.01 
James Harden   6'4"      222  6'10.75"  8'7.5" 31.5  37    11.1   3.13 
M. Thornton    6'2.75"   194  6'5"      8'3"   31    33    10.73  3.28 


The comp that bugs me for Beal is Foye. I think Beal will ultimately be a better shooter but I'm still worried his dribble drive game will closely resemble that of Foye's. Robinson to me is still the the #1 option for us. Beal's testing has put to bed my worries over his athleticism; but I'm still concerned about why he didn't shoot well from the field or from the ft line, and my previous concern over his dribble drive game. The mechanics on his shot look great, but is there something we're missing in terms of release point, or quickness of his release that pushed the numbers down?

The problem with his shooting percentage is - He was a freshman. Freshman guards typically don't shoot for good percentages, and they typically improve. He's still 18 years old. It really is that simple.


I don't know how it could be that simple if as a shooter he's being compared to Ray Allen. Ray Allen's shooting numbers blow Beal's away when you compare freshman seasons.

Allen- 51%- fg/ 40%-3pt/ 79%- FT
Beal- 44.5%-fg/ 34%-3pt/ 77%- FT

I can 100% buy that he'll improve at each level as he gets more accustomed to the level of play, but I also don't see why we should assume he'll be a Ray Allen type of shooter when there's nothing to support that.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#298 » by Ruzious » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:39 pm

Miles Plumlee guaranteed himself a spot in the draft, imo, with the highest max reach verticle and an amazing lane agility score despite having a high body fat %. I wonder if he has a body that just can't get to a low body fat % - saying that because I heard he does long-distance running. As I said during the season - and got some derision here for it, Coach K called him the best athlete on the team.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#299 » by Severn Hoos » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:41 pm

Dat2U wrote:Well in Foye's defense I believe he suffered a knee injury in Minnesota which robbed him of much of his athleticism. He seemed to be more of a slasher in college and became more of a spot up shooter after the injury.

Yeah, so the EG trade wasn't so bad - would have even been a good one if not for the injury. Can't blame that on Ernie!



(If you ignore the fact that he should have known before the trade - just like we should have known about Mark Price. And on and on and on...)
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part V 

Post#300 » by DCZards » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:42 pm

TGW wrote:The Foye comparison does scare the heck out of me. Many were saying the same about Foye back then that they were saying about Beal now. They measurables are eerily similar.

Damn, you guys sure know how to deflate a guy's optimism. :(

Thomas Robinson it is then.



I wouldn't put too much stock into player comparisons. They're mostly just good fodder for those of us who post on these discussion boards. I suggest you look at Beal's total package--his outstanding shooting (especially the last half of his frosh year when he began to find his groove); his athleticism; his strong physique; his high ball IQ; his maturity and coachability; his impressive rebounding and shotblocking for a guard; his decent size and length; and the fact that he and JWall are almost certain to be one of the best (and most entertaining) young guard tandems in the game.

I'm not suggesting that there aren't things that Beal needs to work on--ballhandling and taking opponents off the dribble immediately come to mind. But he's only 18 and I'm confident that given his reported work ethic those are aspects of his game that he'll improve.

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