2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[nate33]

Just sayin':

Code: Select all

Name       HTnoSH      HtShoes       Wgt     Span      Reach    BodyFat   
Robinson   6' 7.75"     6' 8.75"    244    7' 3.25"   8' 10"     5.0
Booker     6' 6.25"     6' 7.5"     236    6' 9.75"   8' 10"     7.3

Code: Select all

Name        NSVt  NSReach    MxVt   MxVtRch   Bench  Aglty   Sprint
Robinson    28.5  11' 2.5"   35.5   11' 9.5"    15   11.96   3.17
Booker      31.0  11' 5"     36.0   11' 10"     22   11.15   3.10

Robinson is an inch and a half taller and has a much wider wingspan. But the standing reach (pending any corrections) is equal. And I suspect it will surprise many that Booker was not only a significantly better leaper - with higher max verticals - but was quicker, and stronger.

Robinson was and will be a better rebounder. But beyond that, I'm hard pressed to see how Robinson would be a major upgrade over the Wiz' original Grown-ass Man.

Robinson has bigger hands, a much bigger wingspan, and better basketball skills. But your overall point is valid. Robinson appears to be merely a modest upgrade over Booker. Drafting him really only makes sense if we manage to also move Booker for a decent wing.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Meyers Leonard might move up into the top 7 or 8 picks, because of how he measured out. Not sure how I feel about him but he is tall and quite athletic and strong. He is young, too, at 20.

I would take Leonard ahead of Zeller, Henson and Sullinger at this point. He's got great size and skill. Usually you can't go wrong with that.

I really think Sully will have trouble defending at the next level.

On paper, Leonard has all the tools to be great, and he's interviewed well from what I've seen. But there's something undefinable about the guy that tells me to stay away from him - he's too much of a pretty boy, and when push comes to shove, I don't want this kid on my side. I know that's not sound reasoning, but my instincts say no. He played virtually never in his frosh season - as his coach evidently saw a problem - despite his great tools.

The thing is that if he had picture perfect aggressiveness and toughness, he would be a lock to go 2nd in the draft. To me the misnomer with Leonard is that he's a raw body. I see the most impressive part about him as what he's showing in the post. He has a real feel for spins and finishes already. The footspeed and hands are there. The reason he didn't score a higher volume despite being one of the best post scorers in the NCAA IMO is a combination of him not always consistently wanting to set up down there instead of floating out to the perimeter to set screens + playing on a team with chucker guards carrying the offense, making it so he wouldn't get passed the ball 3/4s of the time he backed down a defender. In the games I saw every time he actually got the ball in the post, he made moves/finished like a star, it just came down to the combination of him staying down there and getting the ball was more rare than it should've been. The statheads seems to love 2P% more than volume as an indicator because of these contexts and Meyers certainly passes there (60%+, second best in the class behind Davis). Some recent big men like Greg Monroe and Roy Hibbert ended up being so much more talented in the post than their raw volume said, but 2P% would've shown a better sign of their talent. I'm more concerned about Leonard mentally than I was them but I could see him making that kind of transition. Greg Monroe and Hibbert also fell specifically because they were getting assassinated for their lack of aggression, mental concerns, being called soft. I think this guy has more in common with Donatas Motiejunas than Andre Drummond. Motiejunas (who I also had top 5 last year) is an extremely rare combo of skill/size/speed but got called a soft b*tch who didn't produce enough. I honestly think Leonard is that type of Motiejunas "skilled, but does he show it enough" type of enigma, not the Andre Drummond type of doesn't know what to do with the basketball raw enigma

To me the upside of the team that takes Leonard is clearly a Roy Hibbert/Marc Gasol level C in the future as a medium volume skilled 7 footer, who can block shots and rebound decently, passes it, etc. There just isn't players like that available often. I can see the risk that he'll be some big soft schlub, but what prospect is without risk... I think MKG and Robinson are VERY risky, to me their "floor" is Ronnie Brewer and Jordan Hill, basically high energy defensive guys who just don't have it offensively. Barnes just screams SF Nick Young. Screams it to the mountaintops. Drummond and PJIII obviously are even bigger enigmas than Leonard. Beal could be a guy who hits 3s but doesn't have much going for him off the dribble/creating his own shot. Sullinger was basically college Shaq and not college Hakeem in the post (a** attacked defenders, didn't make a lot of fancy moves), so the risk with him is that he's just not big enough to do that in the NBA. So while the risk with Leonard mentally is real, I think it's just part of the package with just about any prospect in a draft with such a big dropoff after #1. I would personally take him 2nd or 3rd (I think Jeremy Lamb is going to be a STAR and is a bigger guarantee than Leonard, but the difference between getting a franchise 7 foot C vs franchise SG would probably make me go more risky by taking Leonard)

[Dr Positivity]

What makes Lilliard better than Jerryd Bayless? They seem like similar players IMO.

Lillard should be a much better shooter than Bayless. He's 40% 3P and more importantly IMO 89% FT, and both on high volume. Yes Bayless actually shot better in college than the NBA but he's an except, pretty much everyone with Lillard's shooting stats is legit at it.
Also Bayless is one of those guys that just has an exceptionally poor feel for the game and especially the PG position. It's sort of like how athletic skinny 6'10 guys who have a bit of skill are going to get the "What separates him from Anthony Randolph" comments from now on. The thing is Randolph has no feel for the basketball court so I think looking at his toolset and saying 'that guy busted, so what separates this guy' can be a bit misleading because someone with Randolph's skill set but a great feel for the court may very well be a star. The guy Bayless reminds me of in this draft is Austin Rivers. Rivers has the same mental block where once he drives into the paint he has no ability to recognize where he is in relation to anything else, or no control... Also Rivers' 65% FT indicates he's an incredibly overrated shooter. It wouldn't surprise me if Rivers is Bayless, exactly.

Barbosa OTOH seems like a really apt comparison. Maybe somewhere between Lou Williams and Mo Williams? Definitely feels like one of "those types" of players... my problem with drafting him top 10 would probably be similar to taking RB top 10. If you can get a 6th man combo guard through FA/trade, if not Mo/Lou themselves, something in the next bunch of years... Or someone who can essentially replicate their role... Should you really draft one with a top 10 pick in a deep draft?

The Raptors are just a terrible franchise though, drafting Lillard would basically mean our last two lottery picks will come out and do the exact same things Amir Johnson and Leandro Barbosa did for us the last two seasons to such great results, I guess that's the basketball equivalent of inbreeding or something. With that said I'm 60-70% sure the team will be trading their pick for Rudy Gay, a max player who hasn't made an all-star team and who's team is no worse without him... that move just screams Bryan Colangelo, especially Bryan Colangelo in a "has to make the playoffs or else he gets fired" year... he's the Dan Snyder of the NBA by pretty much only caring about how big someone's name power is in regards to how much he wants them... We're exactly the type of team that would think 3/5s of a future Indiana like 50 W team around Gay (replicating Granger) would be Derozan, a 12.8 PER player who jacked up high volume on a bad team and is a SG who can't hit 3s, Bargnani, one of the worst defensive bigs in the league and like Derozan/Gay a high volume midrange shooter, and Valanciunas, a rookie "defensive center" who is horrible at defense in the Lithuanian league, but will drink from the elixer of development to turn it around and become a shotblocking defensive anchor like Joakim Noah because as long you have length and energy, you can become a Noah like center...

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Hello fellow Bullets/Wizards fan, I just wanted to introduce myself. I've been a long time stalker on this board, but have always been too chicken to make an account (it gets intense on here sometimes lol). I just want to go straight to the point of our 3rd pick in the draft. I know the majority on here prefer Beal, but I do not agree. i know we've been bad for a while now and Beal looks like a great fit on our roster. However, ask yourselves this question: will you take Dwight Howard over Eric Gordon? I vote Andre Drummond. He's a once every five years type of big man and you just can't pass on him. As a fan, we need a legit bigman, 3pt shooting can be added via FA...Rush, Lee, etc. Also, how come we give Beal a pass for underwhelming in college, because of his age, and not Drummond? Anyway, this is just my opinion. What do y'all think?

[7-Day Dray]

Hello fellow Bullets/Wizards fan, I just wanted to introduce myself. I've been a long time stalker on this board, but have always been too chicken to make an account (it gets intense on here sometimes lol). I just want to go straight to the point of our 3rd pick in the draft. I know the majority on here prefer Beal, but I do not agree. i know we've been bad for a while now and Beal looks like a great fit on our roster. However, ask yourselves this question: will you take Dwight Howard over Eric Gordon? I vote Andre Drummond. He's a once every five years type of big man and you just can't pass on him. As a fan, we need a legit bigman, 3pt shooting can be added via FA...Rush, Lee, etc. Also, how come we give Beal a pass for underwhelming in college, because of his age, and not Drummond? Anyway, this is just my opinion. What do y'all think?

Agreed. We need a 2nd star next to Wall, not another high-tier role player that'll make us a bottom of the barrel playoff team. Drummond is a risk, but he'd be under Nene's tutelage. He has the most star potential in this draft behind Davis. If he reaches his potential, oh man.

After him, I like Barnes the most. He has all-star potential IMO. Underrated athlete w/ great size and underrated skill set.

[WizarDynasty]

A.DAvis, A.Drummond, Barnes, R. White equal== amazing. LIke the Kanye West song. grabbing one of those three plus white with a mid first round pick equal take over of the nba. Let's buy a second mid 1st round pick. Who will sell us one?

[7-Day Dray]

Some of you guys don't know how much a Robinson/Nene frontcourt would get shredded on defense. No rim protection.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Exactly, Robinson is not better than Drummond, and he's 2 years older. We can move Nene to PF and try to get another first round pick and get Rivers or Ross. Also, I'm not a MKG fan. Terrence Jones can play SF and he's a much better player (offensively and defensively).

[TGW]

Would I rather have Dwight Howard or Eric Grodon? Hmmm tough one there. With that being said, is Beal more likely to reach Gordon's level or is Drummond more likely to reach Dwight Howard's level? I'd say that one is pretty much a no-brainer. Drummond didn't even dominate guys much smaller than him. I'd hardly call that man the next Dwight Howard lol.

[popper]

I'm down with Drummond but the fan base would have to cut the FO some slack realizing that he is a big gamble. Personally I'd take the chance because the payoff, if successful, is huge. The downside is also huge, a wasted #3 pick.

[Nivek]

Hello fellow Bullets/Wizards fan, I just wanted to introduce myself. I've been a long time stalker on this board, but have always been too chicken to make an account (it gets intense on here sometimes lol). I just want to go straight to the point of our 3rd pick in the draft. I know the majority on here prefer Beal, but I do not agree. i know we've been bad for a while now and Beal looks like a great fit on our roster. However, ask yourselves this question: will you take Dwight Howard over Eric Gordon? I vote Andre Drummond. He's a once every five years type of big man and you just can't pass on him. As a fan, we need a legit bigman, 3pt shooting can be added via FA...Rush, Lee, etc. Also, how come we give Beal a pass for underwhelming in college, because of his age, and not Drummond? Anyway, this is just my opinion. What do y'all think?

A) Welcome.

B) How do we know the choice is Dwight vs. Eric Gordon? What if it's Benoit Benjamin vs. Clyde Drexler? What if it's Kwame Brown vs. Mitch Richmond?

My analysis: a Beal vs. Drummond selection isn't going to be a Gordon v. Howard pick.

[7-Day Dray]

Would I rather have Dwight Howard or Eric Grodon? Hmmm tough one there. With that being said, is Beal more likely to reach Gordon's level or is Drummond more likely to reach Dwight Howard's level? I'd say that one is pretty much a no-brainer. Drummond didn't even dominate guys much smaller than him. I'd hardly call that man the next Dwight Howard lol.

UCONN was a mess He was playing w/ 2 ballhog PGs that rarely ever looked to find him open shots. If he had better PGs that got him the ball on a more regular basis, I don't think it's a stretch to say that he would've looked more confident on offense. I still believe that he would've looked much better at a different school.

And I need to watch more Beal footage, but I'm just struggling to see what he stands out at. Eric Gordon always had an explosive first step and leaping ability. Beal had a 39 in. vert, but he doesn't play quite that athletic in-game. And his shooting wasn't as advertised for most of the year. While I do think he will be a better shooter in the NBA, I don't think he'll be Ray Allen good (a guy he's compared too a lot). He's my top SG in the draft, and I like him much more than a guy like Jeremy Lamb,but does he really have star potential?

[HeyIt'sMe]

I'm not surprised Beal tested out this well - I watched him all season long at Florida and he was always a very good athlete. I think he came in with such a reputation as a great shooter that people automatically assumed that meant he had to be an average athlete or something. Beal made plays typical of a highly athletic SG all season long, whether it be rebounding over guys much bigger than himself, some highlight reel dunks, or blocks at the rim against post players - he did all of this and did it on a fairly regular basis.

[DCZards]

Most of us, including myself, like MKG because of his motor, defense, the fact that he leads by example, his bball IQ and his obvious upside. The thing many of us have doubts about is MKG's ability to become a good shooter. But don't the Zards already have a SF/PF with those same good qualities, as well as a similar weakness? I'm talking about Vesely, of course, who also happens to be taller than MKG and apparently a better athlete.

If Robinson is deemed by some to be a minor upgrade over Booker, why isn't MKG seen as just a minor upgrade over Ves? Just wondering.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

You might be right with Beal being more likely to reach EG's potential. But apart from Davis and Robinson, every other prospect in the draft is being judged on potential. Drummond has two things you can't coach, length and elite athleticism at his position. In short, I think he's more likely to be a superstar than Beal. I also add guys like Barnes and the Joneses (if they play SF) to that.

[TGW]

Would I rather have Dwight Howard or Eric Grodon? Hmmm tough one there. With that being said, is Beal more likely to reach Gordon's level or is Drummond more likely to reach Dwight Howard's level? I'd say that one is pretty much a no-brainer. Drummond didn't even dominate guys much smaller than him. I'd hardly call that man the next Dwight Howard lol.

UCONN was a mess He was playing w/ 2 ballhog PGs that rarely ever looked to find him open shots. If he had better PGs that got him the ball on a more regular basis, I don't think it's a stretch to say that he would've looked more confident on offense. I still believe that he would've looked much better at a different school.

I don't really buy that. The guy is 6'11 and 280, yet only managed 7.6 rpg in 28 mpg. If he wanted more touches, he should have worked the offensive glass, got more putbacks, and tried to run the floor to establish better post position. He just didn't do what was necessary to be a dominant player. There is no reason he shouldn't have averaged 10+ boards.

[dangermouse]

But Drummond isnt the next Dwight, he's Kevin Durant. Just ask him!

I'm not willing to take that gamble, even though I think its quite possible that we (and CHA and CLE etc.) look back in about 4 years and think "damn, we should have taken Drummond."

As for Beal, damn, he has ticked all the boxes in these drills and then some. I think i'm slightly preferring him over TRob now. They might be about on par actually...

I like the comparison of TRob to Millsap, I think he could turn out to be a better version of Millsap.... so pretty much Kevin Love-like.

NOH - Davis
CHA - TRob
WAS - Beal

or

NOH - Davis
CHA - Beal/MKG/Drummond
WAS - TRob

I think scenario 1 is the most likely to happen. I can't see Charlotte taking a 6'4" SG 2nd overall, particularly when you look at their roster and who they've taken in the last couple of drafts. They are going to take TRob, MKG or a flyer on Drummond. TRob being the most likely.

OT: I hate waking up, hopping on RealGM and seeing I have 10 new pages of this thread to read through. Maybe hate is the wrong word here..... more like love.

[hands11]

Interesting comments about Kendall Marshall by Feinstein. I feel pretty much the same about Marshall's abilities, even to comparing him to Kidd...at least as far as Marshall's playmaking skills are concerned. Don't necessarily like the trade idea but I can see where Feinstein is coming from.

I wanted Marshall if we could get an extra high first. Would give us awesome depth at PG finally.

PS Everyone seeing how far Perry has dropped.

[Ironpanthr]

You might be right with Beal being more likely to reach EG's potential. But apart from Davis and Robinson, every other prospect in the draft is being judged on potential. Drummond has two things you can't coach, length and elite athleticism at his position. In short, I think he's more likely to be a superstar than Beal. I also add guys like Barnes and the Joneses (if they play SF) to that.

Didnt we just trade away a big man with length and elite athleticism for his position? He possessed those 2 key qualities that can't be taught. Unfortunately he also couldn't be taught anything else apparently. I am not saying that Drummond is the same, but after what we just lived through, do we really want to risk it? I am just sayin...

[Terpman]

Drummond...please.

Just say NO.