2nd Round Jazz Best Picks

retiredcoach · Post #1 » by **retiredcoach** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:07 am

Right now I only like two players in the 2nd round as potential Jazz picks.

Kim English and Scott Machado.

The question on English revolves around his senior season shooting averages. He was one of the best shooters in the country, but prior to his senior year he wasn't very effective. He's 23 so what you see is what you get with him. Older players don't improve much in their first 4 years in the league. In addition, NBA defenders are going to be bigger, stronger and quicker than the ones he played against in college. So how well can he shoot then? He doesn't have a big upside in the NBA but he could be a decent bench shooter. He only has the jump shot.

Machado is Brazilian. He played mostly small ball schools, but he has great court vision and knows how to set up his teammates. His points come off drives to the hoop. The question on him is can he raise his game enough to handle the speed of the NBA and the quality of players. You can't teach vision or decision making so he's got those two qualities to work with. He can make a decent #2 PG and maybe a starter in 3 years. Machado is 22 yrs old.

The problem for most 2nd round players is if they aren't major offensive threats then they had better be really good defenders and most of them aren't now and won't be later. This is especially true of older players in the 22 and up range.

If English's shooting percentages are real, he would be an excellent pick for the Jazz, but if teams feel he can shoot that well, he won't be around at 47.

KOC has been scouting Europe heavily so he may have someone in mind, but I'm weary of players drafted who are going to come over later.

dangatang12 · Post #2 » by **dangatang12** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 3:16 am

hey im new but ive been following the boards for years, but im not trying to pull some crazy stuff like fletcher or heaven harris.
that said, im also a big fan of scott machado and would love to see the jazz snag him in the 2nd round. his passing ability could really help out the jazz second unit.
i also really like jae crowder from marquette. hes 6 foot 6, 235lbs and averaged 17pts and 8rebs a game. he shot around 35% from 3s. he is super physical and has nba athletisism and he was a big time leader. the only thing is that he reminds me a ton of our own DeMarre Carroll.

if the jazz grabbed either machado or crowder in the 2nd round id be a happy camper

Post #3 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 7:40 am

I wouldn't mind getting Machado in the 2nd round, I think he will be a decent pick. But everyone needs to put is high assist numbers in perspective - Iona played the game of basketball at an EXTREMELY high pace. They were like the energizer bunny on reinforced - supercharged Amphetamines, and he played 35.5 out of 40 mins last year.

reapaman · Post #4 » by **reapaman** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:10 pm

Even though it is a late 2nd round pick, I still think you go for the homerun pick than going safe.

Machado is defintely a player but is without a doubt he's a career backup (a good one tho) which is great for a 2nd rounder but we can do better. Kim english is nice but again is a safe spotup shooter which is good but you can find them else where. Jae crowder is very intriguing and I wouldn't be mad at all if we got him but I got someone better in mind. Theres few others that might be there when we pick such as Will Buford or the mini terror Casper Ware who deserves a summer invite if he doesn't get drafted. But with all that said .....

Kevin Murphy is my pick and he is likely to be there when we select. He's a 6'6 194 lb and he can score with the best of em. Some people will ignore him because he's a senior who propably think he couldn't score versus better competition (went to a small school) but his offensive skills are very developed. He can create his own shot and play off ball really well. And if it means anything, he proved he can hang with the top seniors during the PIT. Plus he actually plays defense which is another thing we need. I think after a couple years of refining his game in the nba and bulking up, he is gonna be the steal of this draft and could be one of our go to scorer.

retiredcoach · Post #5 » by **retiredcoach** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:56 pm

I see Murphy, English, and Machado as being about equal picks. I don't think any of them are going to be starters.

In addition, Machado and Murphy don't have plans to workout for the Jazz. At least not so far, but that could change.

Murphy is a mixed bag. He can score in a variety of ways, but he's also somewhat of a black hole for the ball and he isn't a great passer. I suppose that could be corrected. He's also thin. Murphy, English and Machado measure out the same. I think English is going to be the best shooter of the three. Machado has good court vision and passing skills.

Murphy is working out for the T-Wolves and the Nuggets so far.

Machado has agreed to workout for the T-Wolves, Pistions, Bulls and Knicks (Ok, I'll take J Lin)

English is working out for the Jazz, T-Wolves, Raptors and Bulls so far.

The Jazz liked English at the Chicago combine so they have an idea of what he's about. They also watched Machado and Murphy so they have a comparison. I just don't think English will last until 17 in the second round.

Jefff · Post #6 » by **Jefff** » Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:03 am

u can find a similar discussion here

viewtopic.php?f=33&t=1178138

i think this year is possible to find a lot of decent-good players in the 2nd round, and it could be a good idea to acquire another 2nd rounder.

based on what i saw, and on what the mock drafts predict, i say Machado -Santorasky at pg, Johnson odom-English ad sg, Miller-Papanikolau at sf, O'quinn-Green at PF, Sims or Sacre at C.

eLo · Post #7 » by **eLo** » Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:28 am

as for me im going for Machado, kid is decent pg with some shotting abilities exactly what Jazz need, after Machado i have also English, if both are unavailable let's pick Odom, guy is like more skilled Ronie Price version he got heart for the game and that is important thing

Post #8 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:28 am

At least at the moment it seems like Tony Wroten may slip to the 2nd round. He would be a steal if he could be had there. Getting another 2nd round pick shouldn't be that difficult - maybe the GS #35. At that point Wroten will be an absolute steal.

retiredcoach · Post #9 » by **retiredcoach** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:39 am

by Inigo Montoya on Sun Jun 17, 2012 3:28 am
At least at the moment it seems like Tony Wroten may slip to the 2nd round. He would be a steal if he could be had there. Getting another 2nd round pick shouldn't be that difficult - maybe the GS #35. At that point Wroten will be an absolute steal.

The Jazz turned down that pick already, so that ain't going to happen. The 17th pick is a long way from the 5th pick in the 2nd round.

babyjax13 · Post #10 » by **babyjax13** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:20 am

Khris Middleton may drop to us; I fell that he's a late lottery talent but most sites don't have him in the first round.

retiredcoach · Post #11 » by **retiredcoach** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:36 am

by babyjax13 on Sun Jun 17, 2012 8:20 pm
Khris Middleton may drop to us; I fell that he's a late lottery talent but most sites don't have him in the first round.

Middleton looks like he's over his two knee injuries, but he's still vulnerable. He's worked out for the Rockets, Raptors, Hawks and Pacers. I think he may also workout for the Celtics. His agent wants him to work out for all 30 teams because he's fallen so far.

A couple of problems: he has a Jeremy Evans type body and he can't play defense.

Post #12 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:28 pm

The Jazz turned down the 35th pick as a part of a larger deal for the GS #8 (which turned out to be #7. Lucky bastards). This doesn't mean that there isn't a deal to be made strictly for the 35th pick. Currently GS has 4 picks, and I don't think they will use all of them. Also, there are other teams to deal with, such as the Cavs who hold picks 33 and 34.

qman · Post #13 » by **qman** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:11 pm

I would take a pass on Machado. If you can get full court pressed into the wrong side of a historic comeback against BYU, then NBA athletes are going to destroy you. Being an NBA point guard requires serious athletic ability which Machado lacks.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Scott-Machado-7024/

Machado dreams of becoming Earl Watson. No thanks.

Post #14 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:35 pm

If he is not athletic enough for you, what do you have to say about Kenadall Marshall? I think he deserves a shot in the NBA from someone, regardless if it will be the Jazz or not.

I don't think he dreams of being Earl Watson, it is just a comparison that DX gave him. He shoots it much better than Watson and has way better mechanics. But also, there is a place in the NBA for the Earl Watsons of the world. A lot of teams could use a guy like him.

retiredcoach · Post #15 » by **retiredcoach** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:24 pm

by Inigo Montoya on Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:28 am
The Jazz turned down the 35th pick as a part of a larger deal for the GS #8 (which turned out to be #7. Lucky bastards). This doesn't mean that there isn't a deal to be made strictly for the 35th pick. Currently GS has 4 picks, and I don't think they will use all of them. Also, there are other teams to deal with, such as the Cavs who hold picks 33 and 34.

In general, 2nd round picks have very little trade value. Only dumb ass GM's give away any real assets for a 2nd round pick. Here's why.

Over the last 20 years, players picked at 47th have had 5% chance of being a star, 10% chance of being a starter or good 6th man, 20% as a decent role player, a 45% chance of sitting at the end of the bench, and a 20% chance of never playing in the NBA.

The 34th pick didn't do any better. They had a 5% chance of being a star, 5% chance of being a decent starter or 6th man, 5% of being a role player, 55% chance of being at the end of the bench, 20% chance of being a bust and becoming part of every trade, and 10% chance of never playing in the NBA.

Why trade up from 47th to 34th? Why bother with getting a 2nd second round pick? Over the last 20 years a little less than 600 players have been drafted in the 2nd round. Only around 5% of those have been players teams want to have like Milsap, Boozer, M Gasol, M Ellis, Gortat, M Williams, Ginobili and Arenas. Yes, those are quality names, but along with 4 or 5 other players that's less than 3% of those drafted.

What GM is willing to trade a real asset for 5% or so chance of hitting a good player? When a team hits a 2nd round pick that amounts to anything, it's called luck!

Jefff · Post #16 » by **Jefff** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:48 pm

Top list:

1) O'quinn: this guy has legit size to play PF-C, and could be a good replacement if we let big Al walk; obviously he hasnt' the same array of post moves-soft touch, but he's a better defender and more a bruiser in the paint

2) Darius Miller: perfect fit for a SF coming off the bench, the upside isn't so high, but seems pretty ready to contribute

3) Kostas Papanikolau; same good fit at SF, and great pro experience, i rank him behind miller just because i don't know his contract status, but i saw him a lot and he's a good player.

4) Scott Machado: true pg skills, decent shot, not flashy.

5) Darius Johnson-odom: ok, he's just 6-2 or 6-3 and not a pg , but all you want from a SG is on the table

6) Kim English: a true SG with also high bball iq, and the jazz invited him for a closer look....

7) Tyshawn taylor: too many TO, but he's so flashy...

My guess is that the above players will be picked before the 17th, but one can slide... and that would be a steal.

If not, pick a big guy (you always need a cheap one, even if we are full of bigs, and we still have Ante Tomic rights), this year is possible to find decent 7 footer in 2nd round (sims, plumlee, Sacre), or take a flyer on Santorasky.

If not

Post #17 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 4:55 pm

In general, 2nd round picks have very little trade value. Only dumb ass GM's give away any real assets for a 2nd round pick. Here's why.

Over the last 20 years, players picked at 47th have had 5% chance of being a star, 10% chance of being a starter or good 6th man, 20% as a decent role player, a 45% chance of sitting at the end of the bench, and a 20% chance of never playing in the NBA.

The 34th pick didn't do any better. They had a 5% chance of being a star, 5% chance of being a decent starter or 6th man, 5% of being a role player, 55% chance of being at the end of the bench, 20% chance of being a bust and becoming part of every trade, and 10% chance of never playing in the NBA.

Why trade up from 47th to 34th? Why bother with getting a 2nd second round pick? Over the last 20 years a little less than 600 players have been drafted in the 2nd round. Only around 5% of those have been players teams want to have like Milsap, Boozer, M Gasol, M Ellis, Gortat, M Williams, Ginobili and Arenas. Yes, those are quality names, but along with 4 or 5 other players that's less than 3% of those drafted.

What GM is willing to trade a real asset for 5% or so chance of hitting a good player? When a team hits a 2nd round pick that amounts to anything, it's called luck!

I think you are making the point for me. If 2nd round picks have little value, it shouldn't be hard to get one, and for little assets.

I didn't necessarily said you have to swap the 47th for the 35th. GSW has 4 draft picks, so it seems unlikely they will use or want to use all of them.

I like the stats you posted. I always wondered where can they be found. Would you mind posting a link? (I am genuinely interested - not disputing them or anything).

What would be more interesting is the track record of a specific team in finding players in the first and second rounds. The Jazz is knows for finding serviceable players with late picks. I wonder how their percentages will look like compared to the stats you posted. Notice that 3 of the players you mentioned have played for the Jazz, two of them were selected by the Jazz. You can add Okur as a 2nd rounder who became an allstar under the Jazz.

Luck is definitely a factor in selecting 2nd rounders, but it is a factor with any pick, including the first overall pick and any pick thereafter. If you chalk it all to luck, you don't really need to invest in scouting in the first place or at least you can cut your expenses on scouting by half and then have an extra few bucks to spend on players salaries. Obviously that's not the way it works. I could contend that 2nd round picks are very valuable because they offer minimum risk, no committed salary, and if the player you selected panned out you got a contributing player on a very low salary.

retiredcoach · Post #18 » by **retiredcoach** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 7:28 pm

by Inigo Montoya on Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:55 am

I think you are making the point for me. If 2nd round picks have little value, it shouldn't be hard to get one, and for little assets.

Basketball Reference is the source of most stat info, but it's often not laid out for you. It takes time to analyze the data. Ask David Locke how much time it takes.

I'm not making your point. While 2nd round picks in general don't make much of a difference to a team's future, they won't simply give them away. What do the Jazz have that's only worth a second round pick to a team? The Jazz would be happy if someone simply picked up Raja's contract, and CJ is a free agent.

I don't want to get into a debate. It's not worth the time. The Jazz won't trade up in the draft for a higher second round pick. There's a 95% chance they won't trade for a first round pick. They may go to the free agency market to replace a player like CJ or to add a scorer from the wing if they can find one.

It's not going to be a very exciting year for new players, unless the Jazz hit one in free agency, which is doubtful. None of the big names are going to come here. Utah is too small a market for endorsement money, prime time TV and the other things that make players more money over the long run.

The Jazz have gotten a couple of decent players in the 2nd round, but that doesn't mean they have some magical evaluation formula that other teams don't have. Given what you would expect in a normal distribution, the Jazz have been on the good side of the mean a few times in the 2nd round, but regression to the mean is coming.

Maybe next year the Jazz will get a decent pick out of the GS deal if GS is only marginally better next year. That could happen. Until then..... we'll all need patience.

Post #19 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:03 pm

I'm not looking for a star in the 2nd round, I hope for a rotation player.

I know how much time it takes to analyze this kind of data - I am no stranger to it. I was just hoping that the work was already done in this particular case.

Obviously the Jazz would be happy if some other team took Bell of their hands. They will probably give him for nothing and be happy with the 3M$ in savings. As for CJ - since he is unrestricted, obviously the Jazz will be happy to get anything for him.

What do the Jazz have that is only worth a second round pick? Just what any other team in any other draft has - future second-round picks and\or cash considerations. This type of transaction happens EVERY draft:

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/06/23/draf ... index.html
http://www.nba.com/2011/news/06/23/draf ... index.html

Like you, I think there will be minimal change in the roster this season unless a really good trade comes along. Don't think any big name will come up, at least not in FA and not this year.

I can definitely see GSW being bad next year - they have a lot of injury prone players.