Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Damian Lillard (POR)

[JamesNaismith]

I still think Damian is the right choice. His ability to improve is unmatched. I like Lamb but he didn't improve and that's scary to me. Lillard has gotten better every year and the work he's put in since the end of the season has made him an even better player. He's got the attitude that breeds greatness. He's got the physical gifts that make greatness possible.

If he's available at 8 and we pass we will regret it for a Long time while he lights up the league elsewhere.

Physically Lillard is to PGs what Drummond is to Cs.

Lamb didn't improve?!?


That's news to me....last time I checked he went from not starting his first couple of years in highschool, to a none top 100 recruit unscouted, all the way to national champ, to adding 6ppg the following year and becoming the TOP scoring wing in the lotto. In what world is that not an improvement (actually a huge one)? I like Lillard but don't even try to say Lamb didn't improve.

[Fenris-77]

Hmm, that's fair, but it's also fair to say that Lamb a disappointing season relative to what people were hoping for. Part of that is UConn looking like all-round hot mess, but some of it also a lack of growth and assertiveness from Lamb. People have very different ideas of how to fold those facts into his draft value, but the it remains true that they occurred and that legitimately qualified analysts have some issues with Lamb for precisely that reason.

[Marlo Stanfield]

18 & 5 on 48% from the field is disappointing for a SG?

[Fenris-77]

18 & 5 on 48% from the field is disappointing for a SG?

You can cherry pick stats all you like, but people had huge expectations for Lamb when he went back to UConn, and he fell short of that. I'm not interested in arguing about exactly how people feel about that, or getting really granular about his stats relative to that perception, I'm just saying that the perception does exist among NBA analysts (including DX) and that it's one of the reasons that we're even talking about Lamb being available at 8.

[fredericklove]

I still think Damian is the right choice. His ability to improve is unmatched. I like Lamb but he didn't improve and that's scary to me. Lillard has gotten better every year and the work he's put in since the end of the season has made him an even better player. He's got the attitude that breeds greatness. He's got the physical gifts that make greatness possible.

If he's available at 8 and we pass we will regret it for a Long time while he lights up the league elsewhere.

Physically Lillard is to PGs what Drummond is to Cs.

Lamb didn't improve?!?


That's news to me....last time I checked he went from not starting his first couple of years in highschool, to a none top 100 recruit unscouted, all the way to national champ, to adding 6ppg the following year and becoming the TOP scoring wing in the lotto. In what world is that not an improvement (actually a huge one)? I like Lillard but don't even try to say Lamb didn't improve.

Same here, I don't see any legit facts and evidences to prove how Lamb hasn't improved from year 1 to year 2. The stats don't lie and the improvement of his skillset in that transition don't lie either. As much as I know Lillard has improved tremendously year-to-year, but it's extremely careless to say his ability to improve is unmatched.

[Marlo Stanfield]

18 & 5 on 48% from the field is disappointing for a SG?

You can cherry pick stats all you like, but people had huge expectations for Lamb when he went back to UConn, and he fell short of that. I'm not interested in arguing about exactly how people feel about that, or getting really granular about his stats relative to that perception, I'm just saying that the perception does exist among NBA analysts (including DX) and that it's one of the reasons that we're even talking about Lamb being available at 8.

So pretty much you want to avoid the stats and discuss false perception versus the facts. Gotcha.

[Fenris-77]

So pretty much you want to avoid the stats and discuss false perception versus the facts. Gotcha.

Not at all, but I bet that would make you feel better if it were true. Lamb was supposed to be this incandescent prospect this year, and he wasn't. He was supposed to dominate and he didn't. That's all true regardless of what you or I might think about individual stats. Lamb had the chance to silence his critics and he failed to do so, so it's not worth pretending that the kid doesn't have faults, even if you like him a lot.

This isn't me knocking him either, just pointing out that there are actual legitimate concerns about his game. Since those concerns get zero air time in his thread I feel the need to bring them up occasionally, just to balance out the happy-happy joy-joy kumbaya sing-along you guys are mostly rocking here.

[Marlo Stanfield]

So pretty much you want to avoid the stats and discuss false perception versus the facts. Gotcha.

Not at all, but I bet that would make you feel better if it were true. Lamb was supposed to be this incandescent prospect this year, and he wasn't. He was supposed to dominate and he didn't. That's all true regardless of what you or I might think about individual stats. Lamb had the chance to silence his critics and he failed to do so, so it's not worth pretending that the kid doesn't have faults, even if you like him a lot.

This isn't me knocking him either, just pointing out that there are actual legitimate concerns about his game. Since those concerns get zero air time in his thread I feel the need to bring them up occasionally, just to balance out the happy-happy joy-joy kumbaya sing-along you guys are mostly rocking here.

Well every prospect has faults. Hell, the top players in the NBA have faults. No need to nitpick at 8. And of course Lamb's faults get no air time in this thread, it's the Damien Lillard thread.

[Fenris-77]

Well every prospect has faults. Hell, the top players in the NBA have faults. No need to nitpick at 8. And of course Lamb's faults get no air time in this thread, it's the Damien Lillard thread.

You'll notice I said 'his' thread.

Anyway, I'll nitpick as I see fit since the issues in question are actually fairly weighty, despite the general tendancy of Lamb boosters to explain them away in favour of high-light reels and valorizing prose.

[The Chucker]

how many games did you watch of lillard and lamb fenris.

[Marlo Stanfield]

Well every prospect has faults. Hell, the top players in the NBA have faults. No need to nitpick at 8. And of course Lamb's faults get no air time in this thread, it's the Damien Lillard thread.

You'll notice I said 'his' thread.

Anyway, I'll nitpick as I see fit since the issues in question are actually fairly weighty, despite the general tendancy of Lamb boosters to explain them away in favour of high-light reels and valorizing prose.

First, let's take this to the Lamb thread and stop derailing the Lillard thread. Second, sleepy eyes, and lack of interview skills are a "weighty" issue now?

[Fenris-77]

how many games did you watch of lillard and lamb fenris.

Live? A couple of Lambs and none of Lillards. Taped? Call it ten of Lambs and 5 of Lillards maybe, plus highlights? It's tough to tell when you're rolling through to watch just one guy and watching parts of games here and there. Tape of Lamb is easier to find too. I've read just about every piece of quality analysis on both guys though, so all told I'm pretty comfortable speaking about either guy with some level of informed argument.

First, let's take this to the Lamb thread and stop derailing the Lillard thread.

The two are linked by fate at this point, so I'm comfy moving back and forth as necessary.

Second, sleepy eyes, and lack of interview skills are a "weighty" issue now?

Did I mentiuon that? Not at all, and I don't actually think his interview skills are an issue one way or the other. Nice straw man argument though.

[Marlo Stanfield]

Second, sleepy eyes, and lack of interview skills are a "weighty" issue now?

Did I mentiuon that? Not at all, and I don't actually think his interview skills are an issue one way or the other. Nice straw man argument though.

The guy criticizing minor faults is talking about strawman arguments? Nice try. If you don't want to be grouped in with all the other Lamb haters maybe you'd like to actually make a point instead of sending us in circles. We're back at the start where you choose to make a point, be proven wrong and then deny the numbers.

[Fenris-77]

The guy criticizing minor faults is talking about strawman arguments? Nice try. If you don't want to be grouped in with all the other Lamb haters maybe you'd like to actually make a point instead of sending us in circles. We're back at the start where you choose to make a point, be proven wrong and then deny the numbers.

That's funny. You've been very quick to drop the straw man a couple of times here, mostly trying to bog down the discussion in minutae rather than deal with the bigger picture. I've been very willing to admit Lamb's strengths, and I like him as a prospect, I just don't like his fans mostly (not specifically you, just in general).

People want to dismiss that his passing was very poor statictically, and poor in many spots on tape, then they can go ahead. If people want to dismiss that he simply doesn't get to the line at an elite rate they can go ahead. If people want to contend that his three point game is elite when the evidence suggests otherwise they can go ahead. If people want to contend that those three issues might not be a serious impediment to his overall ceiling, they can do that too. The problem is that they'd be wrong to dismiss those issues. I certainly don't believe that Lamb will bottom out in all those areas, but to gloss them over is more than I'm willing to stomach.

With Lillard the problems are much different. There isn't much about his actual game (especially statistically) that you can point to as flaws. Failing that people are reduced to talking about more nebulous things like the conference he played in, or his untested pick and roll skills, or his potential offensive tunnel vision. All of those are legitimate issues, but they're harder to quantify that Lambs and that makes Lillard easier to fall in love with when you're digesting stats and highlights online. Same with Lillard's age and the possibility that he doesn't have a whole lot of actual development left. Also an issue (maybe a big issue), but hard to quantify.

It also muddies the waters that Lillard is susbstantially better at all the things that Lamb isn't so good at. Personally, I think they're much closer together as prospects, value-wise, than big supporters of either guy would like. I have them ranked side by side, and I don't see that changing before draft day.

[baulderdash77]

I haven't chimed in on either guy before, but I do follow college ball more closely here than most posters.

I have a hard time with Lillard. First of all he's a guy that we didn't talk about the entire season, he's a college senior from a small school. This gives me the impression that he's the annual guy that rises late for no real reason. He only played against a few meaningful teams this year and didn't do particularly well against them. That's a big red flag for me because I don't think he has the upside to improve and he's probably not as good as he looks in games.

I don't believe in a prospect who was considered a late 1st, early 2nd rounder at the end of the season who suddenly becomes a lotto pick. I always would like to steer away from these guys, especially when there's legit options out there.

[basketball royalty]

18 & 5 on 48% from the field is disappointing for a SG?

You can cherry pick stats all you like, but people had huge expectations for Lamb when he went back to UConn, and he fell short of that. I'm not interested in arguing about exactly how people feel about that, or getting really granular about his stats relative to that perception, I'm just saying that the perception does exist among NBA analysts (including DX) and that it's one of the reasons that we're even talking about Lamb being available at 8.

I think the thing about Lamb is he proved to be a great 2nd or 3rd option but not so impressive as a 1st option. Not a knock on him becuase I see him as a very good glue guy who can help teams in many different ways.

[nowayguy]

18 & 5 on 48% from the field is disappointing for a SG?

You can cherry pick stats all you like, but people had huge expectations for Lamb when he went back to UConn, and he fell short of that. I'm not interested in arguing about exactly how people feel about that, or getting really granular about his stats relative to that perception, I'm just saying that the perception does exist among NBA analysts (including DX) and that it's one of the reasons that we're even talking about Lamb being available at 8.

I think the thing about Lamb is he proved to be a great 2nd or 3rd option but not so impressive as a 1st option. Not a knock on him becuase I see him as a very good glue guy who can help teams in many different ways.

I think you can make that comment for every lottery pick in this draft though. No one in this draft looks like a #1 option.

[team edward]

Playing in a crap conference isn't really "nebulous" ... It basically suggests that you can't rely on any of his stats as an indicator of his talent the same way as you can with other prospects. And so it also means all you have to look at in terms of measuring him against tough comepetition is a few games where he performed quite poorly. If he went to UConn, Duke, Kansas or North Carolina, and averaged the kind of. Numbers he put up it hose "harder" games, would we even be talking about him?

[cdel00]

Lamb PER up up 1.6, Lillard up 7.6 y1, up 9.2 yr2. See the improvement gap?

Lamb eff/40 down 0.1, Lillard up 4.5 y1, up 7 yr2.

Lamb pnts/poss up 0.04, Lillard up 0.13 y1, up 0.06 yr2

Lamb to/poss up 0.01, Lillard down 0.06 yr1, down 0.03 yr2

Lamb TS% up 0.02, Lillard up 0.02 yr 1, up 0.05 yr 2.

Look Lamb had an excellent freshman year but didn't make a major step forward in his soph. year while Lillard made HUGE steps forward in every year.

When looking at a prospect and their ability to maximize potential I'm much more inclined to go with the guy who has a resume of improvement. When looking at where the ceiling of that potential will lead I look at the physical attributes of the player. Lillard has a freakish wing span great verticle and deft ball control with both hands while the change of gears and explosiveness to lead me to believe his ceiling is very high.


So yah if you know of a prospect who improved as much as Lillard did lets see those numbers. Until then my claim that his improvement is unmatched is both valid and relevant.

[Marlo Stanfield]

The guy criticizing minor faults is talking about strawman arguments? Nice try. If you don't want to be grouped in with all the other Lamb haters maybe you'd like to actually make a point instead of sending us in circles. We're back at the start where you choose to make a point, be proven wrong and then deny the numbers.

That's funny. You've been very quick to drop the straw man a couple of times here, mostly trying to bog down the discussion in minutae rather than deal with the bigger picture. I've been very willing to admit Lamb's strengths, and I like him as a prospect, I just don't like his fans mostly (not specifically you, just in general).

I haven't dropped a "strawman argument" once, but continue to pass blame elsewhere if you want.

People want to dismiss that his passing was very poor statictically, and poor in many spots on tape, then they can go ahead. If people want to dismiss that he simply doesn't get to the line at an elite rate they can go ahead. If people want to contend that his three point game is elite when the evidence suggests otherwise they can go ahead. If people want to contend that those three issues might not be a serious impediment to his overall ceiling, they can do that too. The problem is that they'd be wrong to dismiss those issues. I certainly don't believe that Lamb will bottom out in all those areas, but to gloss them over is more than I'm willing to stomach.

He would be a poor passer. The guy is the type of shooting guard who runs off screens and shoots the ball. He's not your typical set-up guy in the mold of a Tracy McGrady or even Brandon Roy. Lamb is more in the mold of a Ray Allen where his team mates set him up, and he can create his own shot. He's not going to be a second point guard out there, it's not really a flaw since he can shoot the lights out.

Getting to the line is a legitimate concern. I like my guards to get to the line at a decent rate, but again, he's a shooter and plays a finesse style. He's not a LeBron James or Blake Griffin who will try to dunk everything on you, I think you need to accept that about his game. Usually guys who draw fouls at a high rate need the ball in their hands a lot and play an inefficient team offense, while their own game increases in efficiency. Lamb is different, you don't have to create for him, he'll get himself open. Remember, fouls are drawn through contact and Lamb's finesse style coupled with his ability to get open hinder foul creating opportunities.

And his 3 point game is elite whether you want to admit it or not. As a 2nd fiddle (which he projects to be) to Kemba Walker last season he shot 37 or 38 percent. If you make the guy something he's not (a first option) he will struggle.

With Lillard the problems are much different. There isn't much about his actual game (especially statistically) that you can point to as flaws. Failing that people are reduced to talking about more nebulous things like the conference he played in, or his untested pick and roll skills, or his potential offensive tunnel vision. All of those are legitimate issues, but they're harder to quantify that Lambs and that makes Lillard easier to fall in love with when you're digesting stats and highlights online. Same with Lillard's age and the possibility that he doesn't have a whole lot of actual development left. Also an issue (maybe a big issue), but hard to quantify.

Calling strength of conference nebulous is laughable. Strength of competition is HUGE. Anthony Parker was elite in the Euroleague, but was a role player in the NBA. Guess why. Strength of competition is the answer. Lillard's Godly stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. The kid could be special, but will likely be a role player in the NBA IMO.

It also muddies the waters that Lillard is susbstantially better at all the things that Lamb isn't so good at. Personally, I think they're much closer together as prospects, value-wise, than big supporters of either guy would like. I have them ranked side by side, and I don't see that changing before draft day.

Lillard is better at certain things, and Lamb is better at others. One is a point guard, the other is a shooting guard so differences is expected.