2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[7-Day Dray]

You can say what you want but Ill take it to my grave that if Dray is right then he's more talented than any of those guys (i.e. James Singleton, Booker and Vesely) and will win the starting job outright

"Talented" -- meaning what?

He'll shoot a higher FG%? No, he never has.
He'll rebound at a higher rate? Than which of these guys? Again, he never has.

Andray Blatche had an 8 game run of high productivity right after the big team breakup, before anyone bothered scouting him. Then he played @4 ok games at the end of that season. And of course, he's had a few other good games.

Overall, he's been a terrible player from the moment he entered the league. As for "right" -- again, what does that mean? He's never had much athleticism, and he's now 27 not 19. He isn't getting back what he had, and it wasn't much to begin with.

In other words, he's not a good player at his best, and he's far from being at his best or any likelihood of returning there.

Terrible player? LOL You're really exaggerating. The last two years he has been, but not when he's healthy and in-shape. Dray is one of the most skilled bigs in the league. Do you not remember two years ago when KG couldn't guard him? *Sigh* How quickly people forget. While I want him gone, there's just a little bit of me that hopes he finally gets in-shape this season and prove his haters wrong, but I know it won't happen. He would be an All-Star if he wasn't so lazy.

[Dr Positivity]

CCJ I agree with you that the consensus gap between MKG, Beal, Robinson, Drummond, Barnes and the 10-15 players below them is built on pretty weak grounds. I think all their skillsets range from complimentary player to rich man's complimentary player. MKG and Robinson's games rely on physically dominating peers, except I don't think they overpower NBA players, they're not big enough to me to do that. Beal and Barnes are perimeter players who aren't dynamic on the ball or players who scream to me able to consistently take it to the rim and free throw line, which is always a problem because 80-90% of star perimeter players do it off the dribble and attacking the rim. I think it's just the wrong draft for a GM to be picking 2-5. The difference in pressure between picking 3rd and 10th is far greater than the difference in talent. The luckiest guy in the draft (not counting the Hornets) is probably Neil Olshay. 6 and 11 is just perfect to come out the winners of the draft.

My list still looks like Davis, Leonard, Lamb, Sullinger, Moultrie, Jones III, Machado, Drummond, Beal, Lillard. It's not that I think players like Leonard, Lamb, Sullinger, Moultrie, Jones III, Machado are guarantees or franchise changing prospects, it's that I don't think Robinson/MKG/Beal/Barnes are either.

[Dat2U]

CCJ I agree with you that the consensus gap between MKG, Beal, Robinson, Drummond, Barnes and the 10-15 players below them is built on pretty weak grounds. I think all their skillsets range from complimentary player to rich man's complimentary player. MKG and Robinson's games rely on physically dominating peers, except I don't think they overpower NBA players, they're not big enough to me to do that. Beal and Barnes are perimeter players who aren't dynamic on the ball or players who scream to me able to consistently take it to the rim and free throw line, which is always a problem because 80-90% of star perimeter players do it off the dribble and attacking the rim. I think it's just the wrong draft for a GM to be picking 2-5. The difference in pressure between picking 3rd and 10th is far greater than the difference in talent. The luckiest guy in the draft (not counting the Hornets) is probably Neil Olshay. 6 and 11 is just perfect to come out the winners of the draft.

I agree with you that are legitimate concerns about Robinson however MKG is 2 1/2 years younger and he's got ideal SF size and weighs 233 at 18 yrs old. He can and will overpower many SFs. He's got the tools and activity to be a nightmare to play against. He's the best open court finisher in the draft. He'll post up smaller SFs and will rebound at a high level. I have no concerns with taking him with a top 5 pick. I think MKG would be a top 5 pick in any year. He's still very young, his physical profile is excellent and the intangibles are off the charts.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ I agree with you that the consensus gap between MKG, Beal, Robinson, Drummond, Barnes and the 10-15 players below them is built on pretty weak grounds. I think all their skillsets range from complimentary player to rich man's complimentary player. MKG and Robinson's games rely on physically dominating peers, except I don't think they overpower NBA players, they're not big enough to me to do that. Beal and Barnes are perimeter players who aren't dynamic on the ball or players who scream to me able to consistently take it to the rim and free throw line, which is always a problem because 80-90% of star perimeter players do it off the dribble and attacking the rim. I think it's just the wrong draft for a GM to be picking 2-5. The difference in pressure between picking 3rd and 10th is far greater than the difference in talent. The luckiest guy in the draft (not counting the Hornets) is probably Neil Olshay. 6 and 11 is just perfect to come out the winners of the draft.

My list still looks like Davis, Leonard, Lamb, Sullinger, Moultrie, Jones III, Machado, Drummond, Beal, Lillard. It's not that I think players like Leonard, Lamb, Sullinger, Moultrie, Jones III, Machado are guarantees or franchise changing prospects, it's that I don't think Robinson/MKG/Beal/Barnes are either.

Dr Mufasa, you bring up some great points.

One thing I've thought about MKG is that at 232 pounds and 18 years old, he's nearly around the size Larry Johnson was early in his career. Perhaps Kidd-Gilchrist may become somewhat overpowering but it sure won't be right away. I give him a better chance of being physically overpowering in the NBA than Robinson or Beal. The flip side is MKG is lacking in offensive skill. He is not an untouchable player and I agree with you that only Davis is, Dr, Mufasa.

I also agree Olshey and Portland are in a really admirable spot with picks #6 and #11. I would prefer that to #3.

The guys you mentioned not being too far off are all good names to include.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wow, Dat, that is scary.

I left my post because I didn't read yours first. We totally agree that MKG has the better chance of being a beast. Wall is the reason I am not higher on MKG, if that makes any sense.

[hands11]

There are huge risks associated with trading a third pick for say a 10th or 11th pick, especially for a GM who wants to keep his job. Yes, there are instances where the 10th pick turned out to be better than the 3rd pick but it's rare. It's fun for us on this board to propose scenarios where a team ends up swapping the 3rd pick for the 10th pick because, unlike the GM, team or owner, there are no repercussions for us if the idea bombs.

(CCJ, D. Williams is better than Bynum, IMO, and I like Paul George but Favors will be the better player in 2-3 years.)

Its the basic math of it that makes it harder to pull off. It is bad enough we are at 3 wondering if CHA will take Robinson or Beal ahead of us or will another team trade up into that slot and change the dynamics. A team with a defined need probably doesn't want to risk that. You don't give up a bird in the hand. That would be GM death to pass up on a pretty sure great fit for your team to only hope you get something as good later. And to lower the risk, your trade partner has to want to player you really wanted 2nd and they have to get the player you want to swap with. If not, you are stuck drafting the player they wanted, not the player you wanted. Beal is to much of a sure thing to risk trading down for a Drummonds.

The Wall for Kyrie swop was a very different trade proposal. You knew what you would get. You would get your player and added assets. It was an idea I promoted early and often.

Trading down last year from 6 was something some of us liked while most wanted to trade up, but again, that is very different. That team was in year two of a rebuild. The draft was deep and flat. You could add lots of different kinds of players to the Wiz and they would still not be very good. Though they would have been better then 2nd worse, and that was not part of the tank plan. Ves was actually the perfect pick for what they were trying to do in a strike shorted year.

This year they have a team that is more assembled. They can be good with what they already have. They have clearly defined needs. Needs of shooting skills and needs of personality to run with Wall longer term at guard. They also need a stud shooting, ball handling SF. They need Walls running mate. I think most of us agree that is not likely Crawford longer term. Wall and Craw may be able to be productive on the court, but Crawford is not a leader personality that you can partner with Wall. Nothing like Wall and Beal would be.

Beal just seems so perfect as a fit for so many reasons. I would never trade out of the 3rd if I could take him with it. Most I would do is trade down 1 slot with CLE if I know they had a hard on for MKG and I could convince them that was the player I would draft.

Dray really isn't an issue. He will get traded eventually. Until then, he will be the 5th big who actually has lots of NBA experience.

Now if on top of Beal, I would get Drummond as a crap shoot without giving pieces I want longer term like Dray, Lewis, Crawford, the 2nd 2nd rounder and maybe next years first, I would do it. if not, I would rather just wait, trade Dray later, add Beal with someone like Kirk and Crowder and keep on keeping on. Drummonds is out of our reach and players like Meyers Leonard, Tyler Zeller, Fab Melo will be available again in later drafts.

Minutes are the issue.

Booker didn't get to shine until Randy benched Andray. James Singleton stepped up in a big way only with Booker out of the lineup. Seraphin didn't get minutes until Javale was traded and his minutes were maximized with Nene out. Vesely played PF.

When Andray comes back and Booker is healthy there will be a logjam of PFs. If the Wizards are too cheap to amnesty Blatche then he will be allowed to use practice time, but compete for NO CHANCE to play. That creates chemistry issues. And what if Robinson were drafted? Somebody good would ride pine and be quite unhappy about it.

The deals I propose are chemistry moves based upon the assumptions Ted doesn't want to amnesty Andray, and Andray's presence on the team will be problematic. What is the rotation with Andray healthy? And where will James Singleton's minutes go? I guess Blatche coming back means no James Singleton, right? If they don't want to amnesty Blatche and in fact DO want to trade him, I've been thinking of ways to facilitate that.

I don't think what you are trying to do in moving Dray is bad to explore. I just don't think it will happen. I laid out the rotations and how it would work. James would have to be the second SF with Crowder as the third. Dray would be the 5th big behind Nene, Booker and Ves, Kevin. He can play both C and PF and he would get minutes in several ways. One, if they need a taller back up PF in a game instead of Booker. Two would be injury. The third would be a focused effort to give him more minutes to showcase him for a trade similar to how they did Nick and McGee. Last would be he actually earns it with his play. Dray's contract is not an issue next year at 7M. They could keep him around the entire year if need be. But I suspect opportunity will present itself where he will get enough minutes to show enough to get moved for an expiring. By that point in the season, one big expiring will be prorated down to no more then around Dray 7M. Then Ted has him off the book at no real cost. I suspect he will try that. If not, he can amnesty him next year and only end up around 7M out of pocket if all else fails. I think Ted goes for the chance for it to not cost him anything vs 9M next year or 12M if he does it this year. ( estimates based on someone paying 3M a year.)

I understand it creates more chemistry issues then trading or amnestying him before the season starts, but it is what it is. I don't see Ted paying dead money to amnesty him. They should be able to draft Beal and Crowder and sign a Kirk or Andre Miller and keep Dray until traded. I suspect that is what they will do. I'm not writing what I would want. I am writing what I predict will actually happen.

[Dat2U]

Wow, Dat, that is scary.

I left my post because I didn't read yours first. We totally agree that MKG has the better chance of being a beast. Wall is the reason I am not higher on MKG, if that makes any sense.

-Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's measurements (6'5.75 without shoes, 7'0 wingspan, 233 pounds) are actually quite close to those of a young Camelo Anthony (6'6.25 without shoes, 7'0 wingspan, 233 pounds). Kidd-Gilchrist, like Robinson and Davis, doesn't measure historically tall or long terms of sheer size and length, but obviously makes the most of his physical profile and has well above average tools for a wing at the NBA level.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1y6An7CAy
http://www.draftexpress.com

I think most would consider Carmelo an oversized SF.

I would have no concerns about playing Wall w/ MKG, I think they would be great together. They just need to be surrounded with shooters though so certainly that should be the priority going forward.

[hands11]

I think you're right CCJ, Ted does not want to amnesty Blatche. I think we will really see where Ted is at if he does not amnesty Dray, nor attempt any FA signings beyond vet-minimum players.

I love it. Finally people are talking like it really is. I noticed you said Ted and not EG.

Mostly owners decide the direction and course of plan. EGs just execute on it. Ted/EG. Can't talk about one without the other. Some things are more Ted then others but he is the owner. He is where the buck stops. He signs the checks. He decides the direction and what kind of player he will pay to have on the team. He decides if they will use the picks or not and has the final say on who they use it for. Now he could decide to let EG make the final call between a set of players if he wants, but he would have to decide that. Having a good owner is really important to having a good team. Most GMs are good enough to get a deal done. Owners are way more important.

[McGully Culkin]

Wasn't sure if this was posted:

The Charlotte Bobcats, assuming they keep the No. 2 pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, will choose between North Carolina small forward Harrison Barnes, Kansas power forward Thomas Robinson and Florida shooting guard Bradley Beal, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Bobcats owner Michael Jordan, according to multiple reports, is open to trading the pick, but the Tribune, citing "several" front-office executives, says he'll take one of those players after the New Orleans Hornets take Anthony Davis first overall.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2 ... son-barnes

Obviously, if this is true...MKG WILL be there @ #3.

[hands11]

@Hands11,

Zeller for a #1 pick on a team who stays in the lottery? Hell NO. Also, if Singelton is starting again this year then I will kill Ernie & Wittless. I would honestly rather have Dray start at SF than Singelton.............lol

Sorry what I wrote upset you.

Like I said, I wrote what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to see happen. They are not going to build the perfect team from a team that while they ended strong, still ended second worse. If they go Beal, CS will get the start with that line. James can back him up. And if they get Crowder, he will get the first quarter to fit in. No rookies are starting next year. Not to start the year. It just makes more sense to roll like that. CS will be better this year. He will hit more from outside his second year. James can run with the second units of say..

Kirk/Miller, Beal, James Singleton, Booker, and Kevin. with Crawder, Dray and Mason in the wings.

Its balances the line ups. Wall, Craw, Chris S, Nene, and Ves.

That is a nice 10 man rotation that would get us into the playoffs. From second worse to playoffs would be a huge leap but with these line ups, they can do it.

Giving up next years first would be a small risk but adding Zeller only increases the likelihood that the first is not better then 17th which may be where Zeller goes this year. Benefit is we get that pick a year early. I could gladly pay you back a burger tomorrow for a burger today. Hell, even if it ends up being a 14th next year it is worth it because you get Zeller for a year. This way when they move Dray, he already has some seasoning.

Next year you focus on a FA singing at SF. No need for a first rounder.

[hands11]

I think you're right CCJ, Ted does not want to amnesty Blatche. I think we will really see where Ted is at if he does not amnesty Dray, nor attempt any FA signings beyond vet-minimum players.

Why? I keep hearing that it costs us money. No, it doesn't. Dray is untradeable and doesn't contribute, and it's *his contract* that costs us money. If you amnesty him, you fill his spot w/ a round 2 type rookie at $500K. That's what amnestying him costs -- the dollars to fill the spot.

It is not a fact that he will be untradable this coming year. But it is a fact that if you amnesty him, you will pay the full contract minus whatever anyone signs him for. Once done, you closed the door on that money. Bring him back this year and there is still a chance you can trade him after using him for half the year. In exchange you get a player with a bigger contract that is amortized down and then done. Drays contract is then off the books next year and it cost you basically this years money to do it.

Point is, they will keep there options open. Your facts are not actually facts.

[hands11]

You can say what you want but Ill take it to my grave that if Dray is right then he's more talented than any of those guys (i.e. James Singleton, Booker and Vesely) and will win the starting job outright

"Talented" -- meaning what?

He'll shoot a higher FG%? No, he never has.
He'll rebound at a higher rate? Than which of these guys? Again, he never has.

Andray Blatche had an 8 game run of high productivity right after the big team breakup, before anyone bothered scouting him. Then he played @4 ok games at the end of that season. And of course, he's had a few other good games.

Overall, he's been a terrible player from the moment he entered the league. As for "right" -- again, what does that mean? He's never had much athleticism, and he's now 27 not 19. He isn't getting back what he had, and it wasn't much to begin with.

In other words, he's not a good player at his best, and he's far from being at his best or any likelihood of returning there.

Born Aug 22, 1986 in Syracuse, NY (Age: 25)
He will be 26 and like 3 months when the season starts.

Lets stick to the facts.

[closg00]

I think you're right CCJ, Ted does not want to amnesty Blatche. I think we will really see where Ted is at if he does not amnesty Dray, nor attempt any FA signings beyond vet-minimum players.

I love it. Finally people are talking like it really is. I noticed you said Ted and not EG.

Mostly owners decide the direction and course of plan. EGs just execute on it. Ted/EG. Can't talk about one without the other. Some things are more Ted then others but he is the owner. He is where the buck stops. He signs the checks. He decides the direction and what kind of player he will pay to have on the team. He decides if they will use the picks or not and has the final say on who they use it for. Now he could decide to let EG make the final call between a set of players if he wants, but he would have to decide that. Having a good owner is really important to having a good team. Most GMs are good enough to get a deal done. Owners are way more important.

Hands, we all know what a GM's responsibilities are. With respect to EG, a poster from the Bucks board summed-up well what kind of GM Ernie is (he wrote this before Ted, but EG hasn't changed a lick)

I'm an opinionated Milwaukee fan from a few of the other threads.

I enjoy weighing in on these Grunfeld threads every six-months or so because the guy was toxic for our franchise when he was with us.

Both Milwaukee and Washington have (had) one thing in common. A beloved yet completely incompetent and meddling owner. In our case it is Herb Kohl. In your case Abe. Both guys like the idea of "winning now" rather than spending years in the high lotto. Both guys are(were) up in age. Kohl is 76 and I think Abe died at 87 (?)

While it would be easy to blame all of Ernie Grunfeld's bad moves on meddling owners, I think that allows him off the hook. The bottom line is that the guy has been a GM from August 1999 (Bucks) through the current day (Wizards). In those 12.5 years, the guy has really made zero signature moves where you go "Wow, that was a great GM....that move(s) turned our franchise around"

In the draft world, he absolutely sucks. He doesn't find you Westbrooks, Serge Ibaka's or Wesley Matthews. Instead he finds you Marcus Haislips and Nick Young's at best.

In the contract world, he overpays everyone for fear of "losing an asset". Whether it was giving Tim Thomas $68 million to stay in Milwaukee, $20 million along with Scott Williams and a future #1 (Josh Smith) for Anthony Mason or your situations with the Arenas, etc bad contracts or trading the #5 pick away twice.

What Grunfeld excels at are two things:

a) He knows how to suck up to his owner. Yo!,u guys can read into the Kohl/Polin/Grunfeld situation on a number of levels. The bottom line is that he's obviously a good insider politician, otherwise he doesn't last nearly as long as he has.

b) Grunfeld is more than adept at working the phones and getting deals done involving overpaid veterans. He engages in a bunch of "activity" involving veterans that you assume he might know what he's doing. Sometimes he blows enough future assets to put together a 43-win team. But in the end, you mistake that "activity" for being a good GM.

Just my two cents. You guys won't get significantly better until you clean house and get a new front office.

[WizarDynasty]

paulpressey25 wrote:
I'm an opinionated Milwaukee fan from a few of the other threads.

I enjoy weighing in on these Grunfeld threads every six-months or so because the guy was toxic for our franchise when he was with us.

Both Milwaukee and Washington have (had) one thing in common. A beloved yet completely incompetent and meddling owner. In our case it is Herb Kohl. In your case Abe. Both guys like the idea of "winning now" rather than spending years in the high lotto. Both guys are(were) up in age. Kohl is 76 and I think Abe died at 87 (?)

While it would be easy to blame all of Ernie Grunfeld's bad moves on meddling owners, I think that allows him off the hook. The bottom line is that the guy has been a GM from August 1999 (Bucks) through the current day (Wizards). In those 12.5 years, the guy has really made zero signature moves where you go "Wow, that was a great GM....that move(s) turned our franchise around"

In the draft world, he absolutely sucks. He doesn't find you Westbrooks, Serge Ibaka's or Wesley Matthews. Instead he finds you Marcus Haislips and Nick Young's at best.

In the contract world, he overpays everyone for fear of "losing an asset". Whether it was giving Tim Thomas $68 million to stay in Milwaukee, $20 million along with Scott Williams and a future #1 (Josh Smith) for Anthony Mason or your situations with the Arenas, etc bad contracts or trading the #5 pick away twice.

What Grunfeld excels at are two things:

a) He knows how to suck up to his owner. Yo!,u guys can read into the Kohl/Polin/Grunfeld situation on a number of levels. The bottom line is that he's obviously a good insider politician, otherwise he doesn't last nearly as long as he has.

b) Grunfeld is more than adept at working the phones and getting deals done involving overpaid veterans. He engages in a bunch of "activity" involving veterans that you assume he might know what he's doing. Sometimes he blows enough future assets to put together a 43-win team. But in the end, you mistake that "activity" for being a good GM.

Just my two cents. You guys won't get significantly better until you clean house and get a new front office.

the beauty of this draft is that you begin to see leonsis marks.

We are about to either draft a young franchise bigman who's bust potential exponentially drops because of a calculated Nene move or we immediately have the 2nd best small forward in league who is five years younger than Durant. We got the top 3 picks covered. Ted Leonsis/Grunfeld have been absolutely brilliant. I think there is another workhorse in this draft that would be our harden coming off the bench and that is royce white. Don't get things confused, if getting royce means we don't get either of the 2AD's or Barnes, then we don't get him. But getting Royce means he immediately becomes the third best player on this team after 2 years-Best player on the team in 2 years come from the top 3 picks, then Wall, then Royce. then maybe seraphin. Vesely is always going to be a great glue guy who comes off the bench until he learns how to shoot jump shots off the dribble. Vesely should be our collison. A guy signed to a longterm cheap contract who is great value because offense is paid more than defense. But if our front office, shows their skills. The odds of us gettingg another lottery pick are pretty low i acknowledge but if the opportunity to grab royce is their in a salary dump Leonsis would be very wise to do it.

[hands11]

closg00

pages and pages of posts says a lot of people do not know.

But we have those threads with endless pages. Back to the draft.

[bawizards]

I like the idea of somehow getting Royce White especially if we get Beal. I know there are some question marks but if he can play small forward i would love a starting line up of Wall/Beal/White/Vesley/Nene w/ Seraphin getting a lot of minutes as a big then Booker/Singelton getting minutes as well.

I think with him it gives Wall teh ability to move w/o the ball and cut to the basket. IDK how experienced WAll is at that but I think he has the potential to be deadly with his length and speed. Granted we may want to focus on developing Walls jumper instead of having him focus on moving w/o the ball. Vesley can cut well too, he should have the speed and quickness over a ton of PFs.

[davidgrant]

I like the idea of somehow getting Royce White especially if we get Beal. I know there are some question marks but if he can play small forward i would love a starting line up of Wall/Beal/White/Vesley/Nene w/ Seraphin getting a lot of minutes as a big then Booker/Singelton getting minutes as well.

I agree. Beal and White would be a perfect draft in my opinion. I really hope we can parlay our two 2nd rounders and whatever else is needed to get in a position to get White.

[omegatronic3]

man watching MKG interviews are painful....I't hard to say if its all just the speech defect but he doesn't really have too much to say. Has anyone heard anything about how his workouts are going. Is he hitting shots?

[hands11]

I like the idea of somehow getting Royce White especially if we get Beal. I know there are some question marks but if he can play small forward i would love a starting line up of Wall/Beal/White/Vesley/Nene w/ Seraphin getting a lot of minutes as a big then Booker/Singelton getting minutes as well.

I agree. Beal and White would be a perfect draft in my opinion. I really hope we can parlay our two 2nd rounders and whatever else is needed to get in a position to get White.

How high would White go if he had played on Kentucy ?

I would very much enjoy watching White in a Wizard uni.

[Knighthonor]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrzVBDoneZI[/youtube]