2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[payitforward]

If you have any sense at all, you don't bring him back period - under any circumstances. He's had 7 years in the NBA. Just keeping him around the team would be an obvious step backwards to any momentum this organization has built. It's amazing to the point of absurdity to me that people think it makes sense to give him another chance.

Look, I get that it is fun for some people type this kind of stuff but come on.

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

Foregone "concussion" -- I like that! Your superior tone not so much.

As I've already asked of you -- why don't you suggest one trade -- just one will do -- w/ any team in the league -- any one will do -- that would make sense for that team and for the Wizards? Obviously, it doesn't have to be something you've heard about, something real in that sense. Just a notion that would work.

Dray is broken. If amnestied, the best he'll get is a one-year veteran minimum contract. Can you really convince yourself otherwise? And, in that case, what will a team want us to take off their hands in return for taking on $23+ million through 2015 instead? We were already unable to trade him last year.

[payitforward]

Will Bartin had embarrassingly bad athleticism scores. His lane agility was slower than everybody in this draft class except Sullinger (and he only barely beat Sullinger). His full court sprint was slower than every projected guard or small forward in the draft. His max vertical was also lower than every other guard or small forward.

Good point -- I hadn't noticed that.

It'll be interesting to see whether these numbers affect his draft position -- and also whether they affect his career. I mean the testing, which seems to be producing weird and inconsistent results. Actual lack of agility isn't a good thing, obviously.

[closg00]

You can't build a team successfully around 2 perimeter players with no shooting range - no matter who you add. You can excuse it in a PG; you can't in a SF you're picking at 3. Unless MKG is showing in workouts that he's completely changing his shooting form - and we have no evidence that that's happened - there's no chance I'd consider him at 3. His offensive skills are way overrated. The only things he does well offensively are run the floor, drive to the hoop, dunk, and hit the offensive boards. He can't shoot with even mid-range, because his shooting on the way down is going to get blocked in the NBA if there's anyone within 10 feet of him. He's a mediocre ball-handler and can't handle in traffic. Contrary to a ton of posts here, he doesn't create shots for teammates. There is no Pippenesque point forward ability that he's shown - not even close. We drafted Vesely at 6 last year. If Vesely was a mistake, drafting MKG at 3 compounds the mistake and creates another.

I have to +1 this post, we simply do not have the luxuary to take-on another player who cannot shoot the basketball. Doesn't anyone remember how painful it was watching hot-potato basketball? We don’t have anyone on the team that can help-us close-out or keep us in- games. Most of our current lineup would have to sit late in the 4th because of FT issues. Our roster is not going to get a makeover to accomodate MKG, even though we might love him.

[payitforward]

Can't we just let Kawhi Leonard be outstanding because that's what he is? Overall, he's already one of the top 1/2 dozen 3s in the league.

But Kawhi Leonard being good in no way prevents Jan Vesely from being good.

Top half down 3s in the league? That's a big stretch. Here's 10 who are better than him off the top of my head. Nothing against Kawhi, who I wanted to draft, but people acting like we're Portland and we missed Durant is ridiculous.

Batum
Gallinari
Loul Deng
Andre Igoudola
Paul Pierce
Rudy Gay
Danny Granger
Carmelo
Kevin Durant
Lebron

This is a pointless argument. I should have written "among the 1/2 dozen most productive and efficient 3s," which is what I meant. What you measure: shooting efficiency, ball possession, etc. He's among the very best at those things on a per-minute basis. If you don't think those things are what make a player outstanding, I'm not going to argue that point with you. What I'm claiming is only the numbers and those can't be argued with.

Statements like "if he'd been drafted by the Wizards, he would have missed those shots" bear on nothing. There's no evidence for such a statement, and none against it either. Back to logic class: counterfactual if-then statements are all treated as true. "If the sun doesn't come up tomorrow, I'll shoot a thousand 4-pointers." One such statement is as true as another.

[payitforward]

payitforward

The team, system and coach you play for can obviously make a difference. Specially your first year. Why are you even trying to debate this.

Yes, how could you? Without the slightest hint of irony or sarcasm. Damn your Vulcan logic!

Yes, I am part Vulcan. Crap. I have been found out.

Dude, that was to funny.

Let me ask a question about this "obvious difference"? Do you think this issue has been studied empirically? By people who access tons of data about individual player productivity as players move from team to team and from coach to coach?

If you do think it's been studied, then wouldn't the results of those studies be relevant here?

Yes, I'm pretty sure they would be relevant. And the issue has been studied. And the results show that there is virtually no difference in what a player puts up by way of efficiency and numbers as he moves. Really, how surprising is that? It's the same guy.

In general, players get better over their first 3-5 years (depending on age when drafted), and they get worse their last few years. Using regression analysis to eliminate that curve, you find nothing particular to support your statement.

Now "can" make a difference -- sure! There are always exceptions. Absolutely anything can happen.

But if context were as determinative as you seem to think, how would we ever evaluate players for the draft, free agency, trades, etc.?

[payitforward]

Well what does seem to be a theme this year is the lack of a clear, consistent hierarchy of value .... Honestly I'm tempted to prefer swapping down for Portland's two picks or something similar simply to have two tries at figuring out who's worth having ....

Hey, it's a very deep draft: what about my massive trade-down strategy -- nets us 8 picks instead of 3, and includes 3 first rounders (11, 16 and 22).

Actually, I think Beal is going to be an outstanding 2 guard. Yet if 6 and 11 netted you Lillard and I don't know Drummond or Zeller or Terrence Jones, maybe it would be smarter to spread the risk (not suggesting we'd actually pick Lillard, obviously -- just in terms of adding talent to a team).

[willbcocks]

Let me ask a question about this "obvious difference"? Do you think this issue has been studied empirically? By people who access tons of data about individual player productivity as players move from team to team and from coach to coach?

If you do think it's been studied, then wouldn't the results of those studies be relevant here?

Yes, I'm pretty sure they would be relevant. And the issue has been studied. And the results show that there is virtually no difference in what a player puts up by way of efficiency and numbers as he moves. Really, how surprising is that? It's the same guy.

Those sound like interesting studies. Can you please link them here? Did they compare players moving from highly efficient offensive team to inefficient ones? That would be the most relevant analysis here, as we're not talking about someone moving from any one team to any other: we're talking about someone moving from one of the best offenses in the league to one of the worst.

Intuitively, my guess would be that players shooting percentages would improve if they moved to better offensive teams, but it sounds like the studies you are citing do not bear that out. I only had time to look up some players who had moved from Phoenix to other teams after playing with Nash, and Amare, Joe Johnson, Marion, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw (everyone I checked) all had significant dips in their shooting percentages. Diaw then jumped from 41% to 58% moving from Charlotte to San Antonio. And you could see the types of shots players took changed a lot as they moved teams.

[nate33]

deep playoff teams are built around superstar bigmen.

Well, except for Miami and OKC.

[DCZards]

If you don't think those things are what make a player outstanding, I'm not going to argue that point with you. What I'm claiming is only the numbers and those can't be argued with.

I won't argue with the numbers, but a reasonable person also has to acknowledge that situation and circumstances can have a significant impact on numbers. Do you really believe that being on the floor with Duncan, Manu and Parker is no different than being on the court with McGee, Crawford and Wall?

[queridiculo]

When you're open, does it really matter who you share the court with? How often have we seen Singleton bend the rim on wide open shots this past season? The shots were there for him to make.

The story on Leonard heading into the draft was how much he's worked over the offseason and how much his shot had improved as a result.

Saying that Leonard wouldn't have been successful on this roster is absurd. He was precisely what this team needed.

[nate33]

But Barton is an altogether different kind of player -- he wasn't nearly the efficient scorer that either of the other guys was; but still he wasn't bad. And he is a very good rebounder. Helps himself w/ assists as well.

Plus, he approved significantly in virtually everything from freshman to sophomore year. He'd be a hard guy to pass up. If we were able to get him and Crowder, and then pick up Denmon undrafted, I'd feel like we probably snagged 3 guys who could have solid, ten-year NBA careers.

Will Bartin had embarrassingly bad athleticism scores. His lane agility was slower than everybody in this draft class except Sullinger (and he only barely beat Sullinger). His full court sprint was slower than every projected guard or small forward in the draft. His max vertical was also lower than every other guard or small forward.

Crowder's height and reach changed in a week. Athleticism scores change depending on who is timing, where, and how the athlete responds that day.

I don't care what Barton's athleticism scores are. I have seen his stats and I know his background from HS, Prep School, both years at Memphis, how he is a leader, how his younger brother followed him and their upbringing, etc. Barton's stats could point to him being another Chris Douglas Roberts but I doubt it. Will Barton will be a successful NBA player. He is one of the best SG prospects in this draft class.

I'm not disagreeing with you. I have no opinion on Barton. I'm just pointing out the facts. His athleticism scores were poor, extremely poor. Maybe he was hurt or something. But if not; if that's the best he can possibly do; then I don't think he can succeed in the NBA. His lane agility is tragically bad - way worse than any successful NBA guard/forward. Heck, it's worse than any successful center except for Haywood, McGee and Brook Lopez.

In general, I agree with the notion that you don't make critical decisions based on small differences in the measurements. But the measurements do tell you who can be ruled out. If a player doesn't have the requisite length and athleticism to compete at his position, they usually fail.

[closg00]

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

If Ted keeps Dray after failing to trade-him, then he will reveal himself as an owner more concerned with his money then he is about building a respected and winning organization. If he would rather poison the locker-room and fan experience at Verizon with the boo-birds just to keep his money, then fans have every right NOT to purchase tickets AND to complain loudly.

[closg00]

When you're open, does it really matter who you share the court with? How often have we seen Singleton bend the rim on wide open shots this past season? The shots were there for him to make.

The story on Leonard heading into the draft was how much he's worked over the offseason and how much his shot had improved as a result.

Saying that Leonard wouldn't have been successful on this roster is absurd. He was precisely what this team needed.

Hollinger had Leonard at #5 on his board before the draft. The Spurs and Hollinger we're right.

[payitforward]

I don't care what Barton's athleticism scores are. I have seen his stats and I know his background from HS, Prep School, both years at Memphis, how he is a leader, how his younger brother followed him and their upbringing, etc. Barton's stats could point to him being another Chris Douglas Roberts but I doubt it. Will Barton will be a successful NBA player. He is one of the best SG prospects in this draft class.

Agree with you 100%. Especially because of the strong improvement in virtually every number from freshman to sophomore year.

[Ruzious]

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

If Ted keeps Dray after failing to trade-him, then he will reveal himself as an owner more concerned with his money then he is about building a respected and winning organization. If he would rather poison the locker-room and fan experience at Verizon with the boo-birds just to keep his money, then fans have every right NOT to purchase tickets AND to complain loudly.

Agreed - and it's not about any of us being outraged, it's about thinking the situation through.

[Ruzious]

I don't care what Barton's athleticism scores are. I have seen his stats and I know his background from HS, Prep School, both years at Memphis, how he is a leader, how his younger brother followed him and their upbringing, etc. Barton's stats could point to him being another Chris Douglas Roberts but I doubt it. Will Barton will be a successful NBA player. He is one of the best SG prospects in this draft class.

Agree with you 100%. Especially because of the strong improvement in virtually every number from freshman to sophomore year.

He's still not that good, and he's still extemely skinny. His best skill seems to be rebounding, and he's too small to play the 3 in the NBA. At the 2, his rebounding isn't going to be much of a factor. Rebounding carries through to the NBA for players with muscle mass. That's why you see a lot of "under-sized" college players have success as rebounders. Notice that most of those under-sized players are muscle-bound. Barton turns sideways and you don't see him.

I'm going to give him the bene of the doot on the athletic tests, because they were so bad, he must been ill or injured. And I still wouldn't draft him.

[nate33]

Regarding Blatche, Hands11 brings up a good point that he can be our 5th big - our 3rd string center and power forward. As bad as he is, he's sure to be better than a rookie big we pick up with the #46 pick, or some vet minimum over-the-hill scrub like Tony Battie. And he costs us nothing.

[DCZards]

Saying that Leonard wouldn't have been successful on this roster is absurd. He was precisely what this team needed.

No one said that Leonard would not have been successful with the Zards. What some of us are saying is that Kawhi was likely more successful with SA than he would have been with the Zards because of the difference in talent and experience of the players surrounding him, as well as the coaching.

Leonard played a very a different role with SA than he likely would have played with the Zards.

[closg00]

Saying that Leonard wouldn't have been successful on this roster is absurd. He was precisely what this team needed.

No one said that Leonard would not have been successful with the Zards. What most of us are saying is that Kawhi was likely more successful with SA than he would have been with the Zards because of the difference in talent and experience of the players surrounding him, as well as the coaching.

Leonard played a very a different role with SA than he likely would have played with the Zards.

How would Leonard's role have been any different with us Zard? Leonard would have had the same role that Singleton has and Ves had. Leonard plays the SF position period.

[DCZards]

If Ted keeps Dray after failing to trade-him, then he will reveal himself as an owner more concerned with his money then he is about building a respected and winning organization. If he would rather poison the locker-room and fan experience at Verizon with the boo-birds just to keep his money, then fans have every right NOT to purchase tickets AND to complain loudly.

None of us really know what's going on behind the scenes with Blatche and the Zards as far as his relationship with his teammates (poison?); his relationship with the coaches, GM and owner, or Blatche's preparation for the upcoming season. All we know is what we see and know as fans--from the outside looking in.

If Blatche is on the roster next season, I'm going to be at the Verizon Center rooting for him to succeed just as hard as I root for his teammates.