2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[dobrojim]

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

If Ted keeps Dray after failing to trade-him, then he will reveal himself as an owner more concerned with his money then he is about building a respected and winning organization. If he would rather poison the locker-room and fan experience at Verizon with the boo-birds just to keep his money, then fans have every right NOT to purchase tickets AND to complain loudly.

If they fail to trade Blatche, why couldn't they continue to do exactly what they
did at the end of last year, keep him on the inactive roster until some other option
becomes available? At worst, he takes a spot on the 15 man roster that way.

[nate33]

If Vesely somehow magically becomes as good as Noah (incredibly unlikely) then you might have a point, but there's nothing to indicate that will ever happen. And isn't it Gordon + Noah + FA vs. Wallace + Noah + Ilyasova? ?

Well, except Noah won't be playing because Illyasova is taking his spot and we need Nene/Seraphin on the floor to be the low post threat.

It's like I keep saying: you can add as many shooters as you want to make up for the Wall/MKG shooting inadequacy, but it won't help much. You can only play 5 guys. Those extra shooters either won't play, or they'll take the minutes from good defensive players.

[Severn Hoos]

jim - I caught the admonition of failure line and had the same thought - the typos are really only fun when they inadvertently hit close to home. For example, I'm sure most posters here think that the lack of any kind of admonition of failures (and attendant consequences) is one of the biggest problems with the franchise for the past decade or so....

[Ruzious]

^ Well, I don't think Ruz was talking about LeBron and Wade. He's talking about Wall and MKG - who aren't nearly in the same class as scorers. LeBron/Wade can be title contenders as mediocre outside shooters because they are so good at everything else. That's not the case with the players Ruz is talking about. I think he's right - this team will be best served by adding complementary pieces because we don't yet have anyone good enough to transcend a glaring lack of skill in one particular area.

Yuppers. Wake me up when Wall/MKG do anything - much less shoot a baseketball - as well as BronBron and DWade.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, what about this

Wall/Kirk/Mack
Beal/Crawford/Mason
C Singleton/J Singleton/Crowder
Nene/Booker/Dray
Ves/Kevin/Zeller

The Wizards can't get Beal and then Zeller without some sort of deal where they rob another team. Otherwise, I would love it if they landed Beal, Crowder, and Zeller. That would be one of their best drafts, ever possibly.

[Upper Decker]

I still think too many people downplay the relative importance of defensive big men, and the relative unimportance of defensive wings. It's easy to say that we can find a stretch 4 to balance out MKG's weaknesses, but the reality is that most stretch 4's play lousy defense. And having a bad defensive PF kills your team defense, even if you have an exceptional defensive SF.

For argument's sake, let's assume that Vesely becomes Noah, MKG becomes Gerald Wallace, and Beal becomes Eric Gordon. I'd rather have Gordon + Noah than Wallace + Illyasova. (Not to mention that in the Gordon/Noah scenario, we'd have more cap room to acquire a SF.)

I can buy your original point but your example is one helluva stretch bro. I mean you had to walk a country mile to get there.

If Vesely somehow magically becomes as good as Noah (incredibly unlikely) then you might have a point, but there's nothing to indicate that will ever happen. And isn't it Gordon + Noah + FA vs. Wallace + Noah + Ilyasova? You take Vesely out of the MKG equation, but if he's the next Noah then certainly were keeping him right?

I thought it was a stretch at first, but after looking comparing their rookie numbers it doesn’t seem like a country mile stretch. Especially when you consider the fact that Vesely was acclimating to a new culture, didn’t have a real training camp, and started the year injured. Noah didn’t have any of those obstacles during his rookie season.

Here is a per-36 comparison between Noah’s rookie year and Vesely’s last 15 games

Noah rookie season
Pts 11.5, Rbs 9.9, asts 1.9, Bks 1.6, FG% 48%, FT% 69%

Noah last 15 games rookie season
Pts 13, Rbs 8.8, asts 1.7, Bks 2.4, FG% 51%, FT% 79%

Vesely last 15 games
Pts 11, Rbs 9, asts 1.7, Bks 0.9, FG% 55%, FT% 64%

The only place where Noahs clearly better is blocks. I also won’t be surprised if Vesely improves dramatically next year, similarly to Seraphin’s improvement during his second season.

[Ruzious]

Good stats pull, UD. And the difference in blocks could be expained by the fact that Noah played center, while Vesely played farther away from the basket at PF. In his own way, Vesely's improvement from the start of the season to the end was almost as good as Seraphin's. His FT shooting was even dramatically improved. He's still got a ways to go with building his body and being more aggressive, but there's reason for optimism.

[DCZards]

If the Zards do draft MKG, I'd still keep Ves...at least for the short term. Ves's combo of height, length, athleticism and bball IQ is extremely rare and I'd hate to give up on him so quickly, because he could end up being a better NBA player than MKG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think one reason that Beal ranks low with Hollinger is because of his lackluster 3-point percentage. If you pay no attention to the hype and look solely at the numbers, it's not surprising that Beal doesn't surpass the other guards in his draft class. I think most other mock drafts are discounting his mediocre 3-point percentage as an aberration because of his track record in high school and in international ball. Whether that's wise or not remains to be seen.

I certainly hope that Hollinger is not grading Beal low simply because of his 3 pt percentage. If so, he's ignoring a ton of evidence that says that those numbers are almost certainly an aberration. Then again Hollinger has Terrell Stoglin rated ahead of guys like Moe Harkless, Jae Crowder and John Jenkins. So maybe it's Hollinger's rankings (and not Beal's shooting) that's suspect.

Imo, in the last 10 years or so, Hollinger has gone from very insightful to somewhat interesting to usually wrong.

FWIW, I don't think Stoglin is a better prospect than those Harkless or Crowder, but he has quickness and the ability to get his shot off. I think he will be on a roster next season. Stoglin averaged 20 or 21 in the ACC. We know the worst parts of his game, but I believe he will become an effective NBA player.

I think Hollinger must not appreciate guard rebounding or the age/experience of each prospect. Beal gets boards and he has a nose for the ball. He improved a lot toward the end of the season on his long range shooting. Taking his age into consideration I see why he is a top 2-6 pick. Stoglin, OTOH, carried the Terps and he had a few brilliant games as well as some not-so-good ones. Terrell can score no matter how many people try and stop him. I know he is a much more accurate three point shooter than Wall. Maybe that is what Hollinger is thinking, that Stoglin might become another Derrick Fisher.

[TGW]

If the Zards do draft MKG, I'd still keep Ves...at least for the short term. Ves's combo of height, length, athleticism and bball IQ is extremely rare and I'd hate to give up on him so quickly, because he could end up being a better NBA player than MKG.

Of course we keep Ves. I'd let him and Booker battle for the backup 4 spot (after we sign Illyasova). If Ves is worth a darn, he should be able to beat Book for that spot.

[dobrojim]

If Vesely somehow magically becomes as good as Noah (incredibly unlikely) then you might have a point, but there's nothing to indicate that will ever happen. And isn't it Gordon + Noah + FA vs. Wallace + Noah + Ilyasova? ?

Well, except Noah won't be playing because Illyasova is taking his spot and we need Nene/Seraphin on the floor to be the low post threat.

It's like I keep saying: you can add as many shooters as you want to make up for the Wall/MKG shooting inadequacy, but it won't help much. You can only play 5 guys. Those extra shooters either won't play, or they'll take the minutes from good defensive players.

so many different possibilities...

It's hard to know in advance how things might shake out with
MKG vs Beal and so much depends on things other than simply
those 2 guys by themselves. Who else do we draft and sign in FA?
Who gets injured? Will our defense really be so good with guys
like MKG, Ves and Seraphin that the lack of outside shooting
will not be a contributor to ultimate failure ie loosing (that one's for hands)?

Looking at our roster and the young bucks that ended up playing
much more than was probably expected when Lewis and Blatche
became obviously untenable not to mention the evolving situation with N1,
you have Crawford, C Singleton, first Booker and later Ves being
the beneficiaries of opportunities to play. Booker as a 2nd year
guy did the best. Now which of the other 3 figure to improve the most
THIS offseason? I'm betting mgmt believes that Ves will improve the
most followed by CSing and lastly Crawford. Also the need for improvement
is also probably highest at the 2, then the 3 and least at the 4. To repeat
what I posted yesterday, that biases my pick at the top to Beal, then
MKG, then TRob. Unless you think Drummond is really going to capitalize
on his gifts more than he showed at UConn anyway, then maybe you take
a flier on him but that's kind of saying 2 things (actually 3):
1. you're more concerned about your C than the 2 through 4 positions
which I think would be poor judgement since you have 2 guys right
now who are at minimum adequate.
2. It raises the question further at C about a guy, Kevin Seraphin,
who really played well over the last part of the season when he
finally did get the chance. That was one thing I didn't like about
one of the links that was posted talking up Drummond or TRob
(saying we should take a Big). It ignored Seraphin. I think the rotation
of Seraphin and Nene at C next year will be one of the stronger ROTATIONS
in the east or even the whole NBA. Draft Drummond only to deal him.

3. You really believe Drummond will be THAT good.

I get all the BPA over need/fit argument and how that applies in spades
to teams more lacking in talent (like us). But PG and C are 2 positions we have
to be most optimistic about going forward at this time. That's why it is so
interesting/confusing and opaque to figure out which way they'll go.

[closg00]

It does make some sense to bring him back. It makes Ted money sense. That was my point. I think it is what he will do if he can't trade him before the season starts. I never said it was ideal. I just don't believe it is near a forgone concussion that Dray will get amnestied or traded before the season and if neither of those two things happens, guess what.... he will be on the roster.

So if you are one of the people who will lose their mind with outrage if that happens, I suggest you start doubling up on your meds around October.

If Ted keeps Dray after failing to trade-him, then he will reveal himself as an owner more concerned with his money then he is about building a respected and winning organization. If he would rather poison the locker-room and fan experience at Verizon with the boo-birds just to keep his money, then fans have every right NOT to purchase tickets AND to complain loudly.

If they fail to trade Blatche, why couldn't they continue to do exactly what they
did at the end of last year, keep him on the inactive roster until some other option
becomes available? At worst, he takes a spot on the 15 man roster that way.

Possible outcomes.

1. Blatche is traded in-return for another player of equal salary + future draft considerations
2. Blatche is traded in-return for another player of equal salary + one of our 2nd round picks
3. Blatche returns to the bench in-active and no FA are signed
4. Blatche returns to the bench in-active and a vet-minimum FA is signed
5. Blatche is amnestied and we go-after high-value FA's

Knowing the Wizards, any of options 1-4 could happen. The last option is the least-likely to happen.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This would be rare time I would be happy with an Ernie Grunfeld decision. Now the real task, if MKG is going to be the choice, is to complement a Wall/MKG led team with skilled guys to space the floor. We'll need to address both the SG & PF position going forward.

I feel even more emboldened that MKG is the right choice considering how the MJ-led Bobcats are so willing to pass on him.

OK, now I'm sold. We have to take MKG!

Early on I was completely in the tank for MKG, then I wavered and was very interested in Beal especially due to roster construction issues and our lack of shooting moreso than liking the player himself (although I do like him). If the rumors are true and MKG is the pick, I'll be extremely happy to get such a high motor guy to add to our roster. We will definitely have the potential to be a top-five defensive team year in and year out.

I have no interest in Barnes and his brand and just don't feel like Robinson is enough of an upgrade to our frontcourt (I'm still high Ves as our PF of the future) and Andre Drummond is kryptonite to winning. Count me back on the MKG bandwagon.

I think MKG is quicker and a much better player than Harrison Barnes. I cannot believe the Wizards consider Barnes to be anywhere near the player MKG is. I can't see how they would even consider going with Barnes at #3. That will end up being a huge mistake.

I feel the same way about Robinson as you do, jimij. He is not that much of an upgrade. I think Nene, Seraphin, Booker, and Ves all bring something to table at PF. Robinson is a better rebounder but does not do the intangible things I think Vesely will in the future. Nene would be ideal at PF, but Seraphin impresses me more than Drummond. Drummond is articulate and seems like a good kid. He looks like a beast on video, but that kid does not win. He reminds me of Kwame, Olowokandi, and Stanley Robinson. Great physical ability with size but not a great basketball player. Pass.

[nate33]

4. Blatche returns to the bench in-active and a vet-minimum FA is signed

Even if Blatche is retained, we will have $5M in cap room (assuming Lewis is bought out). We should be able to add a better-than-vet-minimum free agent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You can't build a team successfully around 2 perimeter players with no shooting range - no matter who you add. You can excuse it in a PG; you can't in a SF you're picking at 3. Unless MKG is showing in workouts that he's completely changing his shooting form - and we have no evidence that that's happened - there's no chance I'd consider him at 3. His offensive skills are way overrated. The only things he does well offensively are run the floor, drive to the hoop, dunk, and hit the offensive boards. He can't shoot with even mid-range, because his shooting on the way down is going to get blocked in the NBA if there's anyone within 10 feet of him. He's a mediocre ball-handler and can't handle in traffic. Contrary to a ton of posts here, he doesn't create shots for teammates. There is no Pippenesque point forward ability that he's shown - not even close. We drafted Vesely at 6 last year. If Vesely was a mistake, drafting MKG at 3 compounds the mistake and creates another.

The Miami Heat would disagree with you. Of course there are some roster issues that need to be addressed by adding floor spacers at the 2 & 4 but LeBron & Wade do the bulk of their damage from mid-range, slashing to the rim and getting out the break.

As for Vesely, his presence shouldn't impact any decision. We may need to think about consolidating some these rookie contracts for veterans with shooting ability.

I think the Wizards need to trade Chris Singleton, but ironically, he can hit the three. He didn't show me much in year one but was playing better at the end of the season. Also, I don't think Mack is a bad player but he is one of the players I think the Wizards could let go if they get talent in this draft. I believe a Blatche trade that could bring back a veteran PG would be one way to let Mack go.

This draft the Wizards select at #3, #32, and #46 but I only foresee 2 picks making the squad. On top of that, I really want to see the Wizards sign James Singleton and the better player through summer and preseason among Cartier Martin and Morris Almond. I realize most think Almond has no shot at making the squad. I admit his odds are long at best, but I saw him play great defense and his history says he is a pure scorer. (D League history, not NBA). I want him to make the team but I really like Cartier Martin and think he also deserves to be on the team. I prefer both to Jordan Crawford but Crawford has ability and a license to shoot from anywhere.

Anyhow, the Wizards do need to consolidate their roster before they pick too many young players. Blatche really needs to go IMO.

[MikeTheKid]

Regarding Blatche, Hands11 brings up a good point that he can be our 5th big - our 3rd string center and power forward. As bad as he is, he's sure to be better than a rookie big we pick up with the #46 pick, or some vet minimum over-the-hill scrub like Tony Battie. And he costs us nothing.

No, it's a bad point, and it's a senseless point. You just won't give up on this guy. The word cancer is over-used in sports, but if there is a player who deserves that monicker, it's Blatche. He should not be around the team anymore - period. Having him back would be a step backwards in everything the organization says it's trying to do.

It would be worse than Eddy Curry when he played for the Knicks and we know how horrible that was

[truwizfan4evr]

4. Blatche returns to the bench in-active and a vet-minimum FA is signed

Even if Blatche is retained, we will have $5M in cap room (assuming Lewis is bought out). We should be able to add a better-than-vet-minimum free agent.

I do not want Dray nowhere near this team!

[KrayzUpside]

Another major limitation of MKG and Beal to a lesser extent is their ability to handle the ball. MKG showed in college that he can push the ball up court and make one or two dribbles toward the basket but in a halfcourt set can he or Beal really get to their spots to score. This will be all the more important as teams put their scouting reports together and look to stop them from doing what they're comfortable with on offense.

Yes, the are young and still developing, but can we reasonably expect MKG in particular to be comfortable handling the ball at an elite NBA level. Guys like Lebron and Wade had already shown this ability by his age and comparing him to these guys is a must given he is being considered as a 3rd pick in a deep draft. Barnes for instance doesn't handle the ball all that well, but at least he can shoot better than MKG and has the frame and has shown he can post up guys his size and smaller and score.

I'm not advocating taking Barnes. I'm just pointing out that having so many holes in your game, even at 18 can be difficult to overcome no matter how hard working a guy is. A top 3 pick needs to have show they can be bankable on offense in at least one or two areas. A thorough scouting report and NBA level defenders will further diminish MKG or other marginal offensive players.

[nate33]

I'm not too worried about the ball handling of either Beal or MKG. I think both will certainly be adequate for their position, and giving their age and work ethic, I think both will probably end up as above average ball handlers at their position.

[Jay81]

if we can get barnes and waiters at 6 and 11....would you trade MKG for Waiters and Barnes basically?