Free Throw differential between teams

litex · Post #1 » by **litex** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:30 pm

Since there's been so much whining, here's the actual free throw differential between the Heat and OKC. In parens are numbers excluding fourth-quarter intentional fouls.

Miami - 77 (74) fouls, 103 (93) FTA
OKC - 83 (78) fouls, 93 (90) FTA

So, excluding intentional fouls...OKC has fouled a whooping 4 more times total than the Heat, and shot 3 fewer freethrows.

Clearly, the only explanation is conspiracy

Wade2k6 · Post #2 » by **Wade2k6** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:34 pm

Waits for the typical "but it isn't the amount of calls and foul shots, it's the type of physical defense Miami is allowed to play that OKC can't."

RatherUnique · Post #3 » by **RatherUnique** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:37 pm

People just refuse to give the other team credit nowadays.

"You can't possibly be the better team, so I'll blame it on the refs"

It's pretty sad

MrHidden · Post #4 » by **MrHidden** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:41 pm

Wade2k6 wrote:Waits for the typical "but it isn't the amount of calls and foul shots, it's the type of physical defense Miami is allowed to play that OKC can't."

its meeeeee · Post #5 » by **its meeeeee** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:43 pm

wow.... the way thunder fans have been crying you would think this couldnt be possible....

where did you get your source from?

hayden · Post #6 » by **hayden** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:49 pm

I'm not an OKC fan at all, but show me some clips like these against the Thunder, then I'll say the officiating has been fair:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H7BHdtCIE8[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rsa2LY8QJAY[/youtube]

Not all calls / missed calls are equal.

litex · Post #7 » by **litex** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:50 pm

where did you get your source from?

Just added up each team's personal fouls for each game from box scores, then subtracted the intentional fouls at the end of 4th quarter by looking at the play by play. The data's not hard to get.

DonaldSanders · Post #8 » by **DonaldSanders** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 10:12 pm

I can see how for OKC fans it would be frustrating. I'm not a Miami or Thunder fan but the refs are calling the game really inconsistently. There are clear harder fouls near the hoop the officials are missing, but then they are calling some pretty ticky-tack stuff on the perimeter. It's inconsistent and irritating as a fan, Dwyane wade will get hacked, no call, then someone sneezes on him and its too the line.

These numbers prove the fouls called are pretty even, though. Good thread. I don't think the Heat are playing any more physical than guys like Collison, Perkins, Ibaka who are all being pretty physical down low.

Post #9 » by **rrravenred** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:13 am

Shots-to-FTA ratio might be a better raw guide to the officiating pattern (which, of course, doesn't account for type of shot, etc).

ElGee · Post #10 » by **ElGee** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:46 am

All you have to do to show that the officiating was one-sided is to do a simple officiating study, breaking down all the calls of every game of the series (usually ~90-100 ref decisions per game). I've done this, it's quite fun.

Then, to show a conspiracy, all you have to do is show that the amount of calls that one team got relative to the other team was outside the normal variance involved in human error.

Easy.

(Or it's just another one of those crazy whacky examples of people affirmation bias...only noticing the plays where your team gets a bad call and not properly weighing those against the 500 calls made in the series.)