Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[VictorPage44]

I don't agree with the posts that say this move is justified because it makes us a competitive team. How does picking up players from a fellow rebuilding team that was terrible last year and is so desperate to unload them that they gave away 13 million dollars a move to make us competitive?

These guys aren't that good. The biggest improvement we'll see next year is from Nene and internal improvement. This was just a waste of money and opportunity.

This is what I'm talking about when I say we're underrating the players we're bringing in for no reason. Dont worry about what New Orleans is doing, worry about what we're doing. No two teams have the same goals. New Orleans had even less talent then the wiz last year, they won more games, and okafor only played 25% of mins cuz of injury. You guys just keep feeding your perception with worthless information.

And spinning this into it's COSTING the hornets to move these guys is comical when they're making the move to SAVE BIG MONEY.

[tontoz]

I don't agree with the posts that say this move is justified because it makes us a competitive team. How does picking up players from a fellow rebuilding team that was terrible last year and is so desperate to unload them that they gave away 13 million dollars a move to make us competitive?

These guys aren't that good. The biggest improvement we'll see next year is from Nene and internal improvement. This was just a waste of money and opportunity.

This is what I'm talking about when I say we're underrating the players we're bringing in for no reason. .

How are we underrating them? Ariza scored only 10.8 ppg in 33 minutes on a team that was 29th in the league in scoring. His scoring efficiency was worse than Crawford (whose shot selection sucked) and Wall (whose jumper sucked). In fact Ariza's scoring efficiency for each of the last 3 years have been worse than that of 2nd year Wall/Crawford.

Seraphin came into the season as a raw 2nd year player who showed minimal offense as a rookie but he still scored at a higher rate than Okafor did during the past 3 seasons while also paying excellent defense. The only thing Okafor does better than Seraphin is rebound and $28 million is a pretty high price tag for an extra rebound or two.

[Ruzious]

Problem is these amazing trades you're predicting could "Arise" suddenly would require an intelligent GM, luck, and a very real possibility of another 18-22 win season for our supposed franchise player.

Risk / Reward

Reward is having some leadership, and getting some wins under our young guys belts. It helps in that regard. It also helps salvage some season ticket holders, and the actual value of the franchise before a whole generation writes them off.

Complete overreaction here. We were never getting Howard, Harden or any top level player......

Again, if that's the attitude, they should find a diffferent business to be in.

Ya, cuz that machismo has worked so well for Dan Snyder.

That's exactly the attitude they need. Realistic. What superstar would want to come to a perennial bottom 3 team? What did capspace get the Nets when they chased Lebron? a bunch of overpaid, 3rd rate free agents on longterm deals. We are in the Nets same boat perception-wise around the league. No significant free agent with a winning attitude is going to want to play here until the team starts winning.

We have Redskins syndrome right now, the only big name free agents we'll get would come to here to kick back and enjoy the city, and probably wouldnt really help get the team turned around. They'd probably look for excuses not to play (Clinton Portis, et al). kevin Garnett's not coming to the Wizards, Tim Duncan would never play for the wizards, dwight would be mocked for his entire career if he signed with the Wizards. Maybe in a couple years, after a couple years of winning, that will change, but for now we'd be getting a monta ellis, rudy gay, mike beasley type, not exactly guys who I'd trust to turn my team around, especially because if they did decide to sign here at this time, it would indicate to me they dont really love the game. I think Ted and Ernie are being pretty perceptive here, they're not gonna let some clown 25 year old bring down the franchise again.

When you're in business, you have to consider all the factors and you cant make decisions with your head in the clouds. Problem with the Black Swan theory when running an NBA team, is that no matter how much you'd like to ignore it or say "the masses are being duped" or whatever BS, the team is there for entertainment. People are fans of the team because they like to watch basketball, and not games between an NBA team and a designated farm team for the rest of the league. So if you go the OKC model, you might strike gold in 30 years and assemble a dream squad that competes for a decade, but that might also never happen and then your stuck with a lousy franchise that nobody cares about. I'd much rather be Utah who goes to the playoffs every year, but has never won, than the Wizards who won once before I was born and suck every year.

Can we stop with the machismo and Dan Snyder references? That has nothing to do with the conversation and only clouds it. If an owner takes the view that he's never going to attract quality players - and it certainly doesn't have to be the biggest names in the game - then he should not be in the business of owning a team. If he's not in the business with the goal of ultimately winning a championship, he or she should find another business or hobby. Otherwise, they're doing a disservice to the fan base. That's my opinion. It's got zero to do with machismo or Dan Snyder.

I think you have to be a truly negative person (a la Craig Staufer of The Examiner - what a defeatest mindset he shows in today's Examiner - absolutely pathetic) to just assume no good free agent is going to want to come to DC. How many games did the Wiz win before Gilbert Arenas signed here? You talked about the Redskins - They certainly haven't had trouble attracting free agents - despite being a lousy team with a bad reputation. The fact is, they acquired 2 players who don't fit well and who are ridiculously overpaid. If you can't find a better use of $43 mil, and you're an NBA GM, you are... incompetent. That's the nicest way I could put it.

[mhd]

Is Ariza a Tony Allen-Esque defender? Is he on that level?

[tontoz]

Is Ariza a Tony Allen-Esque defender? Is he on that level?

The Hornets gave up 3 ppg more when Ariza was playing so i doubt it. Memphis gave up 5 ppg less when Allen was playing.

[Ruzious]

Is Ariza a Tony Allen-Esque defender? Is he on that level?

He's not on Tony Allen's level. He is a very talented defender - with athleticism and length that he uses very effectively on switches. However, he is a surprisingly poor man-on-man defender. I posted a link earlier in this thread to an article from a guy who has lots of interesting defensive stats and has video analyses of both Ariza and Okafor.

[veji1]

How are we underrating them? Ariza scored only 10.8 ppg in 33 minutes on a team that was 29th in the league in scoring. His scoring efficiency was worse than Crawford (whose shot selection sucked) and Wall (whose jumper sucked). In fact Ariza's scoring efficiency for each of the last 3 years have been worse than that of 2nd year Wall/Crawford.

Seraphin came into the season as a raw 2nd year player who showed minimal offense as a rookie but he still scored at a higher rate than Okafor did during the past 3 seasons while also paying excellent defense. The only thing Okafor does better than Seraphin is rebound and $28 million is a pretty high price tag for an extra rebound or two.

Several things : NO tanked a good part of the season on purpose. Second on the players : Ariza is not a good offensive player. period. He was good on the Lakers because his role was more limited and by sticking to it he didn't make mistakes. He is a very good defender whose job will be to defend hard, run the break fast and hard, stay at the 3pt line or cut to the basket. I expect him to not average tons of points but 12ish on a decent percentage.

Okafor is good defensive rebounder and defensive presence in general. His rebounding will help compensate for Seraphin and Nene's weakness in the area. And for a fair bit of the season they played it very saf with him because they had nothing to play for...

Again I am not saying this trade is great, I am saying the reasons why they made it make sense. The goal is to try to win now but not jeopardise long term future. Once some sort of minimal winning culture is established (like fighting to get in the Playoffs), they will try to go for better players..

Look I don't live in DC but I am willing to bet that once this teams shows its quality and starts getting wins on good teams, they will be more spectators, better atmosphere and all in all a better sport environnement.

[Saqs]

reading all the differents comments is very, how to phrase that, enlightening.. Lots of guys complaining that the Wiz just threw away the OKC blueprint... Excuse me ? How many teams in the last 10 years have managed to pull off the OKC blueprint ? just one : OKC. For various reasons the Blazers rebuild through draft failed.. the Heat rebuilt as much through FA (Shaq than Bron and Bosh) than through the draft (Wade) in the meanwhile Orlando, Toronto, Wash, the Cavs, have had varied fortunes and even the Bulls with Rose were not rebuilt through the draft, it was a solid team that through a mediocre season lucked on the 1st pick...

So please. The FO has decided that they were sick of being a poor team on an endless road to reconstruction and that they wanted to get better NOW, as this was the key to get better in the future... That is their analysis. Accumulating high picks between 2009 and 2011 didn't pan out, once Néné was acquired, the picks weren't going to be that high and FAs still weren't going to come.

Now the team and the players know where they stand : The FO has just done a trade that means "you are the team for the next 2 years and your goal is simple, win as much as you can. we will take it from there".

This is very very refreshing. for the first time in 5 years the Zards will play to win. They wille defend hard, they will still lose a lot, but they will also get some nice wins, get on some small winnign streaks, vie for the playoffs.

Just enjoy that. Instead of just constantly dream about a better future through capspace and deals and FAs, you now have 2 years of present. not dominant, not great, but competitive... there is 30 teams in the league, not all of them can vie for the title. This is just realism speaking. The fact that every team endlessly reboots when they were not playing for the title makes the league horrible to watch. Let's just enjoy the fact that this team will not overthink it anymore, and will just try to play hardnosed competitive basketball for the next 2 years.

Once we are in feb 2014, than you can think again about the future, and how that new hard working culture can impact the future of the team, will it net FAs, etc... But this is not the time. Making a reasonnable major splash this summer or next was a pipe dream. Between paying Okafor and Ariza for 2 years and just enjoying the present with a team vying for the POs and paying Batum 5/100 or Ilyasova 5/80, the choice made makes sense.

Might not make fans dream, but that is not the point. Now there will be actual basketball games in DC, with a team playing to win.

+1000

[LyricalRico]

Wow, some GREAT posts on this page from VictorPage44 and vegi1. Keep it coming!

[Induveca]

Ruiz,

I haven't seen anyone say we can NEVER attract a big name free agent. You just can't do so as a perennial bottom dweller.

I see Leonsis' logic behind the move. Internal culture and outside perception are eternally linked. We'll never be a destination without winning some games, and gaining some respect.

They feel Wall/#3/Seraphin/Vesley etc completed the youth movement. Now on to phase 2. Phase 2 with our current reputation, unfortunately, does not allow for a pursuit of a Dwight Howard or James Harden.

In two years, with some wins, improved culture, playoffs, and better PR.....that type of pursuit becomes a realistic avenue.

We're the "low quality" company of an entire sector (in this case the NBA). In mobile, Huawei isn't going to hire away Jonathan Ive from Apple no matter how much money they throw at him. Their devices are perceived as low quality, even though they are a company already making billions.

They realize this perception and are spending/losing a ton of cash on PR and internal shuffling to help change that perception and compete with Samsung and Apple in consumer devices.

They have the money to compete in theory, but perception limits the level at which one can compete. Change the perception, then your cash can be used to attract a different level of employee and customer.

It's not a pretty strategy, but one sometimes needed to sell a better product to new customers AND employees.

[tontoz]

Several things : NO tanked a good part of the season on purpose. Second on the players : Ariza is not a good offensive player. period. He was good on the Lakers because his role was more limited and by sticking to it he didn't make mistakes. He is a very good defender whose job will be to defend hard, run the break fast and hard, stay at the 3pt line or cut to the basket. I expect him to not average tons of points but 12ish on a decent percentage.

So you expect both his scoring rate and his scoring efficiency to improve? Based on what?

[DCZards]

For those who didn’t read the sbnation article posted a couple of pages back (especially those who hate the trade), here’s a couple of paragraphs worth noting:

"What's a team like the Wizards supposed to do in the interim ... wait? Spend two to three more years trying in vain to pull Roy Hibbert in restricted free agency, or making wild bids on top free agents like Ersan Ilyasova? Are they supposed to continue to stockpile draft picks, wasting John Wall's entire rookie deal?"

“So many bad teams are content to put their faith in the luck of the NBA Draft Lottery and ridiculous, almost consistently fruitless free agent or trade plots. The Wizards are instead trying to incrementally improve with eyes toward the future. What Washington completed on Wednesday is, frankly, the most sober deal we've seen since the lockout: it's an admission that Stern's plan was weaker than advertised, that it's going to take time to change the league and that bad teams are still doomed to overpaying for talent in the interim”

[nate33]

Wow, some GREAT posts on this page from VictorPage44 and vegi1. Keep it coming!

No. Those were horrible posts. The idea that no free agent will come here is pure bunk. Free agents go to whomever has the most money (unless they're on the downside of their careers and are ring chasing).

And that doesn't matter anyhow because you don't build a team through free agency. You build it through the draft and augment it with free agency. Bad teams don't stay bad forever. Where was Philly 3 years ago? Where was Indiana 2 years ago? Where was Minnesota last year? You build through the draft, get some talent, make a trade or two to get some veteran leadership and you get decent. Then you add a free agent or two to get good.

I firmly believe we had the reached the "decent" stage. The Nene acquisition was perfect. We were on our way to being a solid, up-and-coming team like Indiana was last year. If we had won 35 games this year with Nene plus the youngsters, we would have shed our bad reputation. Next summer, we would have had the cap room to add some complimentary talent.

Now all that cap room is gone and the talent we added is overpaid and redundant to what we have on the roster.

[DCZards]

Sure but aren't sport fans sick of waiting to be able to land a superstar ? wouldn't you rather just try to see a competitive team than watch the mascarade that this team was ?

That trade just meant "stop dreaming and start playing". Might not be a dream come true, but the bball played will competitive.

"Stop dreaming and start playing." I like that..wish I had come up with it.

[Illuminaire]

What Nate said, with this addition:

Even if the theory behind the trade was sound, the execution was indefensible. We started with a trade chip and solid starters at three positions. We ended with our cap space shot to hell and solid starters at the same three positions.

We started with an offensively challenged squad that plays good to great defense; we ended with an offensively challenged squad that plays good to great defense.

We blew our best chance to improve. People can spin it any way they want to, but it's just that.... spin.

[tontoz]

For those who didn’t read the sbnation article posted a couple of pages back (especially those who hate the trade), here’s a couple of paragraphs worth noting:

"What's a team like the Wizards supposed to do in the interim ... wait? Spend two to three more years trying in vain to pull Roy Hibbert in restricted free agency, or making wild bids on top free agents like Ersan Ilyasova? Are they supposed to continue to stockpile draft picks, wasting John Wall's entire rookie deal?"

“So many bad teams are content to put their faith in the luck of the NBA Draft Lottery and ridiculous, almost consistently fruitless free agent or trade plots. The Wizards are instead trying to incrementally improve with eyes toward the future. What Washington completed on Wednesday is, frankly, the most sober deal we've seen since the lockout: it's an admission that Stern's plan was weaker than advertised, that it's going to take time to change the league and that bad teams are still doomed to overpaying for talent in the interim”

This is nonsense, acting like the alternative was just wating around and staying bad. They had completely turned over their roster over the past 2 years, adding several first round picks and trading McGee/Young for Nene. Add the 3rd pick in this draft.

The current team hadn't even had time to play together. How do we even know how they would play?

This article is just assuming that the Wizards would continue to suck without bringing in a couple of badly overpaid average/below average players. That is a very weak assumption.

[veji1]

Wow, some GREAT posts on this page from VictorPage44 and vegi1. Keep it coming!

No. Those were horrible posts. The idea that no free agent will come here is pure bunk. Free agents go to whomever has the most money (unless they're on the downside of their careers and are ring chasing).

And that doesn't matter anyhow because you don't build a team through free agency. You build it through the draft and augment it with free agency. Bad teams don't stay bad forever. Where was Philly 3 years ago? Where was Indiana 2 years ago? Where was Minnesota last year? You build through the draft, get some talent, make a trade or two to get some veteran leadership and you get decent. Then you add a free agent or two to get good.

I firmly believe we had the reached the "decent" stage. The Nene acquisition was perfect. We were on our way to being a solid, up-and-coming team like Indiana was last year. If we had won 35 games this year with Nene plus the youngsters, we would have shed our bad reputation. Next summer, we would have had the cap room to add some complimentary talent.

Now all that cap room is gone and the talent we added is overpaid and redundant to what we have on the roster.

Fair enough but did Philly or Indiana manage to turn it around through signing a 100 Millions free agent willing to come there ? no. you are also forgetting that in the FOs mind the choice was between paying Lewis his extravagant salary for nought, or paying other players to actually play. Because they were not going to sign him a 14mil check just to go away. It is the owner's money and his is right not to want to burn it.

And yes the Wiz could have gotten Batum, but is paying him a massive amount the right choice, now ?

Now Okafor and Ariza are here for 2 years. In 2014 is when you try to sign a very good player to come here. You try either through FA or, because that is a better way to do it, you have the trade chips to do it : expirings, young guys at the end of their rookie deal that you could S&T in the summer, etc...

You can disagree with the FOs analysis or think (as I do) that with the same analysis they probably could have done better in terms of trade, but this analysis is based on experience of how the league works.. Milwaukee or NJ (until they moved to New York, other story now) or Detroit or Indiana or Phila or Sacto cannot get great FAs to come play with them.. That's how you end up overpaying for the Ben Gordons or Villanueva... The FO is trying something else and I am ok with it.

[tontoz]

Wow, some GREAT posts on this page from VictorPage44 and vegi1. Keep it coming!

No. Those were horrible posts. The idea that no free agent will come here is pure bunk. Free agents go to whomever has the most money (unless they're on the downside of their careers and are ring chasing).

.

Joe Johnson left a title contender to join at 13 win Hawks team. If it wasn't for the Hawks blowing so many top draft picks they could have been title contenders, and that team was a national joke a few years ago.

[hands11]

Excellent post Victor.

You beat me to it with the Dano comparison.

Now there was another way to do this. It involved bring back Kirk which I think would be possible but I don't know that. The roster I designed had then bring in back Mason and James Singleton so those would be your vets. Nene, Kirk, Mason, J Singleton. They would have bought out Lewis and used the remaining money on Kirk. But I would guess that would be a 3 year deal but it would have left them with some cap space next year. This left room to Dray to play some to raise his value so when you traded him you would have brought back your Oka type of player. As it is now, it seems hard to move Dray, not easier. But if they keep him all of this year and amnesty him next year, that should only end up cost them like 8M. Maybe less. So it you are going to toss millions away for noting, they way they did it they are spending less dead money.

I get what they did. It's not sexy but it is functional. Nene in the post helped ground the youngs. They needed another post player. They could have drafted a project and let Nene lead the group alone. Now they have Oka who is a solid professional. And while Ariza isnt a A list SF vet, he more of a know commodity then anything they had there and he knows the league/player who he will be defending. A mentor.

When it is all said and done in two years, all the young core will still be young only hopefully they are more seasoned with playoff experience. Wall, Ves, C Singleton, KS are still puppies right now at 21 and 22. Then add Beal at 18. And its not like it is likely this team is going to beat the top teams for a title right now. First things first. They need to get into the playoffs and learn what that is like. In two years the puppies should have some experience and the team will still be very young.

This is nothing like the previous design. I don't Randy will play favorites. Is Chris can beat out Trevor, he will start. As for Oka. I see him more as post depth then starting. Now the team can play and learn during the season while still resting players for the playoffs. And Wall has more pieces to lead. Hope he is working on the J because they will need that from him.

[veji1]

As usual with forum discussions, the natural flow of the debate will tend to make it look like either you love the move or you hate it. For the record I don't love that trade at all. I see the logic behind it and share that logic, I feel it is time DC gets a team that plays hard, but the execution could have been better that is for sure. But again people here forget that paying Lewis 14mils to go was a no go from the start... Take that away and all your rosy scenarios became very far fetched anyway.