Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[tontoz]

No because that team was hopelessly short on vets. One injury to Nene and it was a lotto team full of puppies once more. I love how KS played to end the season and liked the wins the team got. BUT it was in April when half the league has let hope go away and doesn't care, and another 10 teams are resting the big guys for the POs.. Only a handfull of teams play hard then and we happened to be one of those... But it was fool's gold.. this season teams will have scouted KS, the way the team goes to Nene, etc.. It will be a lot harder.

.

@ people trying to talk down Seraphin after this trade. So April was fools gold? How about March when Seraphin shot 61.5% scoring 15 pts per 36 minutes? March and April were nearly half the season.

This team was short on guys who can shoot. They still are.

[mohammed10]

^ tontoz- No disrespect, but I think the last 6 games or so were fool's gold. But that fool's gold got Emperor Ernie and and his waif Randy re-upped. Also got Teddy (No)Ballgame thinking we are on the verge of the 'P' word (playoffs) and hence the awful trade with New Orleans.

The off-season always brings this optimism (similar to the Skins), but I suspect that 20-25 games into next season, that optimism will wither.

I do hope that Ji and I are wrong...but history has proven otherwise

[tontoz]

^ tontoz- No disrespect, but I think the last 6 games or so were fool's gold. But that fool's gold got Emperor Ernie and and his waif Randy re-upped. Also got Teddy (No)Ballgame thinking we are on the verge of the 'P' word (playoffs) and hence the awful trade with New Orleans.

The off-season always brings this optimism (similar to the Skins), but I suspect that 20-25 games into next season, that optimism will wither.

I do hope that Ji and I are wrong...but history has proven otherwise

There were 29 games in March and April. You can't write off two months worth of good play.

[Jay81]

^ tontoz- No disrespect, but I think the last 6 games or so were fool's gold. But that fool's gold got Emperor Ernie and and his waif Randy re-upped. Also got Teddy (No)Ballgame thinking we are on the verge of the 'P' word (playoffs) and hence the awful trade with New Orleans.

The off-season always brings this optimism (similar to the Skins), but I suspect that 20-25 games into next season, that optimism will wither.

I do hope that Ji and I are wrong...but history has proven otherwise

the wins were fools gold but we lost alot of close games against teams that were making a push. There was one stretch where we had multiple digit leads against alot of good playoff teams and found a way to blow it in the last 2 minutes.

We were pretty competitive even before the ridiculous 6 game winning streak. We still sucked but we wernt losing by 30 and 40 like we were in December/January

[mohammed10]

There were 29 games in March and April. You can't write off two months worth of good play.

Not trying to, my friend. But for the record, we went 12-18 over that stretch (better than the 8-28 start).

I agree that they began to play better as a team, but even 12-18 won't get you a sniff of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This Daniel Leroux article is interesting, but there's a bunch in it I don't quite understand. Mods, since this piece was written for RealGM, could you please reach out to whomever to see if Leroux would be willing to do a chat with Wiz fans to explain this in more detail?

It seems like so much of our collective evaluation of this trade is based on the numbers and CBA ramifications. It would be great to see if Leroux could provide some more clarity on the subject.

Thanks

+1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There are several ways to use cap space. The Wizards decided to spend all of it on Okafor and Ariza. I think that's a bad use of that cap room.

On another note, the more I read of Ted's blog, the more disenchanted I get with him. He talks a lot about transparency, I often find him to be misleading or downright dishonest in his comments. I wasn't impressed with Leroux's piece. It includes facts, but he glides over significant details that matter a lot. Like the fact that the Wizards could have had significant cap flexibility this offseason if Ted was willing to write some checks.

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

And, as nate points out, the team has now made sure that they won't have cap flexibility next offseason either.

Ted's also good at sliding in qualifiers like, the team needed a VETERAN small forward. Really? What's so important about a veteran? Why not the word "good"? If all you need is a veteran, why not go out and sign Michael Finley? He's cheap, he's available and he's a veteran, right?

Anyway...I'm back in town for 7 hours and I'm already getting tired of talking about this. Vacation was better. I'm almost afraid to leave in July.

I think it is really obvious this was done for monetary reasons. Rather than pay new free agents he filled in two for one on an existing contract. Ted plugged in Ariza and Okafor in place of Rashard Lewis and the owner feels like he got a "free" player.

Qualitatively, their numbers say they are grossly overpaid. closg is right when he said Ernie could have drafted better last year and filled needs with players like Faried, Kawhi Leonard, Tristan Thompson, or even Jordan Williams in round two for pennies on what Ted is spending now.

I am sick of this discussion, too. At this point I just want to see what happens with the draft.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Rather than suggesting that those of us who think this is a bad trade don't know what we're talking about, just tell the truth about why the deal was made. They made this deal because Ted's losing money on the team and doesn't want to spend money to make guys go away. They made this deal because they hope to contend for a playoff spot next season -- the extra revenue from making the playoffs will help short-term and might sell some more tickets in following seasons.

Why are tons of you guys not interested in having a competitive team in town ?

Lots of posts I read are like "Title contender or bust"... Wow than 25 out of the 30 franchises in the league are not even worth supporting... there are fans throughout the world who support their team because it is their team , in their town, and it does its best. In lots of smaller markets fans don't even dream of a title. They support their team, when it plays hard and fights and does its best they are happy despite the hearbreaks of defeat, when they tank or play poorly they get mad... But they support their team.

This sort of "title or bust" mindset, with the incessant "OKC model" mantra are an unsustainable delusion that can only lead to bitterness for 25 out of the 30 fanbases in the NBA.

Next year the Wizards will be a team, a real team, that will play hard and defend and try to, you know, win games. Just be a bit happy with that.

That is a broad brush mischaracterization (using poorly mixed paints) of what most people opposed to this trade are saying. Nice painting though.

You can support your team and still question the intelligence, wisdom, sanity, etc. of its ownership/management, just as you can support your country and still question its leadership. The Wizards have not had a contender for thirty years. Not many franchises can make that claim. I've supported them through all that slop, and given them a lot of money.

I believe the idea of the "OKC model" was promoted by Leonsis himself, if not in name, then at least by the similarities in their "model" and his stated plan. Why wouldn't fans question what seem to be deviations from that plan, especially if they're not encouraged by the moves?

+1

[mohammed10]

You can support your team and still question the intelligence, wisdom, sanity, etc. of its ownership/management, just as you can support your country and still question its leadership. The Wizards have not had a contender for thirty years. Not many franchises can make that claim. I've supported them through all that slop, and given them a lot of money.

I believe the idea of the "OKC model" was promoted by Leonsis himself, if not in name, then at least by the similarities in their "model" and his stated plan. Why wouldn't fans question what seem to be deviations from that plan, especially if they're not encouraged by the moves?

HOF Post nominee...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Much better by taking on a wing who sucks and a servicable big? OK

Baron can still play a bit himself but he was still a bad contract first and foremost.

Ok, "much better" may be an overstatement. Let's just say "better"...and more defensive-oriented, more mature, smarter and more likely to make the playoffs team.

This is one of the few times where I don't have a very strong opinion about the effect on the team. I just feel they paid too much for these two players.

They could be an upgrade or they could prove why numbers on both players are down the last three years. Okafor has appeared in less playoff games than Javale McGee. Ariza should be an upgrade at SF, but Chris Singleton already hits the three better, and Singleton was supposedly drafted for his D. How much of an upgrade is Ariza? Also, SF play was pretty good with Cartier Martin. Will he be back? Last, James Singleton seems to me to be flat better than Trevor Ariza and he rebounded better than Okafor in 2012. This move seems to preclude James, a veteran, from coming back.

I don't know how much better this team got, DCZ.

[tontoz]

There were 29 games in March and April. You can't write off two months worth of good play.

Not trying to, my friend. But for the record, we went 12-18 over that stretch (better than the 8-28 start).

I agree that they began to play better as a team, but even 12-18 won't get you a sniff of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

Nene played only 11 of those games and we had singleton starting who was awful. The defense post trade ranged from good to elite depending on who was healthy. The big problem was shooting and that is still the big problem.

[MDStar]

You can support your team and still question the intelligence, wisdom, sanity, etc. of its ownership/management, just as you can support your country and still question its leadership. The Wizards have not had a contender for thirty years. Not many franchises can make that claim. I've supported them through all that slop, and given them a lot of money.

I believe the idea of the "OKC model" was promoted by Leonsis himself, if not in name, then at least by the similarities in their "model" and his stated plan. Why wouldn't fans question what seem to be deviations from that plan, especially if they're not encouraged by the moves?

HOF Post nominee...

How is what we're doing "deviating" from the plan? It seems very similar if you ask me.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the OKC model is sucking enough to get three straight top 5 picks, who turn into stars but also drafted well with their other 1st rd picks in order to supplement their stars.

2007 - Durant (2nd overall)
2007 - Green (5th overall)
2008 - Westbrook (4th overall)
2008 - Ibaka (24th overall)
2009 - Harden (3rd overall)
2010 - Aldrich (11th overall)

Let's compare with what the Wizards have tried to do:

2010 - Wall (1st overall)
2010 - Seraphin (17th overall)
2010 - Booker (23rd overall
2011 - Vesely (6th overall)
2011 - Singleton (18th overall)
2012 - ??? (3rd overall)

Trading for Nene, Okefor or Ariza is not a deviation from the "OKC model. Agree or disagree, right or wrong, it's the organizations way of attempting to be competitive, while at the same time grooming these kids to take us to the promise land in 2-3 years.

Also one more thing that I don't think has been brought up in this thread. (Very surprising considering how long it is) With all of the back and forth about cap space, has anyone thought that management isn't planning on free agents being a huge part of the teams future. If you look at OKC, they're success is/was predicated on their draft picks. Not one big time, big salary free agent on the entire roster. Seeing as though our rebuild is 3 years behind theirs, what do we all say about the direction of the franchise if the plan is to be enough under the cap at the time when our kids need extensions?

Of course one can easily counter with the OKC guys have developed better. And I would say, at the beginning of the 2010- 2011 season, I'm not sure that would have been the thought.

Durant - A beast, no doubt about that. Stud from day 1.
Westbrook - Beginning his 3rd season in the league, with a 2nd year per of just under 18. Signs of being really good but also not sure if he would take the next step.
Harden - Beginning his 2nd season, where his rookie year was nothing to write home. Averaged under 10 pts a game, with a Per of 14.
Ibaka - Also beginning his 2nd season, where he was terrible as a 20 year old rookie from oversees. Struggled with the adjustment to the NBA. Played in less than 20 min a game as rookie.

Two years from now, we may be banking on a core of Wall, (Beal or MKG), Seraphin, Vesley to compete for the title. We just don't know.

[Knighthonor]

this is just a conspiracy theory and all,
but with the rigged Lotto which targeted NO for Anthony Davis 1# pick in the draft,

this trade seem to have helped the same NO team which the draft was rigged for.

Could this trade be some kind of behind the scenes deal for the Wizards to get next season's 1# draft pick in the lotto for helping them out?

if thats the case, its even more likely for the Wizards to draft somebody thats another Big (Trob)or Defensive oriented player that lacks offense(MKG), so they can tank again to get lotto #1 pick...

conspiracy theory....

[Zonkerbl]

Considering sunk cost is about making good decisions. The 14 million dollars was Lewis's already. The decision management faced was whether they wanted to pay him 10 million dollars for another year of his services or cut him. If it were my money, I certainly would have cut him. I played poker semi-professionally for a while, and if you don't want to lose money, you must cut your Lewises.

Ok back to the core of the argument (and sorry for the sarcastic post above). So from your perspective, the Franchise had to pay him 14 millions anyway, so in a sense those 14 millions had to be taken away from the equation, as in admit that they are gone. And you consider that then the staff had three choices:
- Cut your losses and limit them to those 14 millions.
- keep Lewis on the payroll and add close to 10 millions for hardly any playing time
- trade that contract for something else, in this case, Okafor and Ariza who are owed 43 millions over 2 years, so an extra 29 millions compared to the unavoidable cost of 14 million (the sunk cost in question).

Have I understood you correctly?
Well in that case you could also explain it as : 14 million were goint to be lost anyway to Lewis. The FO decided that rather that losing outright those 14 million, it would parlay the loss into a few more vets. Now those 14 mils being a sunkcost and the FO basically accepting that, for a mere 7 millions this year and 22 million next season, the franchise gets to add 2 quality vets in Okafor and Ariza. 7 millions for this year is super duper fantastic deal !

Overall, since those 14 millions were lost anyway before the trade, the FO managed to sign Okafor and Ariza, who will help the team grow in its defensive identity for only 29 over 2 seasons. That is a pretty good short term deal...

Now have I skewed the logic of the "sunk cost" argument here or what?

Lol at the confusing "sunk cost" discussion. Yes, if you consider the $13.7 million of Lewis' contract as "sunk cost", Okafor and Ariza essentially cost us $30 million over two years. But that would have been true for any free agent we signed with that money. Not really the correct way to think about it. This is really about opportunity costs: What is the best next move based on what your situation is right now?

Option 1:
Go ahead and buy out Lewis' contract and take chances in the free agent market.

Option 2:
Go ahead and buy out Lewis' contract and not sign anybody in the free agent market until next year.

Options 3 to infinity:
Trade Lewis' contract to a team seeking to lower it's cap costs. Get some talent in return.

Nothing wrong with option 3 of itself. If we assume that getting Okafor and Ariza is the best possible offer that EG got for option 3, then the only other options we can compare the trade to is Options 1 and 2.

Option 1 - to be competitive, you have to offer three years or more of guaranteed money, plus all non-superstar free agents are overpriced, by definition (you can only sign them because the team that knows them the best was not willing to pay what they were asking).

So actually I see EG facing a choice between overpaying free agents for 3-4 years (option 1), paying Lewis to go away (option 2) and hope someone valuable is available next summer, or overpaying two vets for 2 years (again, assuming this is the best deal he was offered).

I'm disappointed because I was hoping the zards could still get a starting quality player next year by choosing option 2. It looks to me that EG has essentially made it impossible to sign a starting quality player through free agency for the next two years. I mean, it's nice to have the cap flexibility to resign all our rookies (unlike OKC, which looks like it will be in luxury cap hell). But I think we will end up being one quality starter away from a championship.

Not a bad position to be in, really. Same story for about ten other teams in the league. I'd rather be in that group than where we were last year. But I gotta agree with Kevin -- I think we could have done better, buying out Lewis, amnestying Blatche, and signing a max free agent next summer. Although there is that one article that says that two years from now, the free agent market should become much more rational, and that's when the Okafor and Ariza contracts will come off the books.

Gosh, you know, I am just not smart enough to look forward two years and say positively that this trade was a good or a bad idea. I think I'll just hope EG knew what he was doing.

[DCZards]

I'm disappointed because I was hoping the zards could still get a starting quality player next year by choosing option 2. It looks to me that EG has essentially made it impossible to sign a starting quality player through free agency for the next two years. I mean, it's nice to have the cap flexibility to resign all our rookies (unlike OKC, which looks like it will be in luxury cap hell). But I think we will end up being one quality starter away from a championship.

Not a bad position to be in, really. Same story for about ten other teams in the league. I'd rather be in that group than where we were last year. But I gotta agree with Kevin -- I think we could have done better, buying out Lewis, amnestying Blatche, and signing a max free agent next summer. Although there is that one article that says that two years from now, the free agent market should become much more rational, and that's when the Okafor and Ariza contracts will come off the books.

My guess (or at least hope) is that the Zards FO took the free agent market for this year, next year and two years from now (who's available, what it might cost to sign them, the impact of the new CBA, etc.) into consideration when deciding to trade for Okafor and Ariza. There's certainly nothing wrong with scrutinizing and criticizing that decision. But I think we all would agree that we don't everything that went into making that decision. Ultimately, we're on the outside looking in.

[LyricalRico]

My guess (or at least hope) is that the Zards took the free agent market for this year and next year (who's available, what it might cost to sign them, the impact of the new CBA), into consideration before making the decision to trade for Okafor and Ariza.

I think Wes posted an article about 40 pages back that examined the deal in light of the new CBA and it made some points that the new CBA may not be as good for small-mid market teams as initially advertised. Maybe Ted really doesn't want any longterm (meaning beyond 2014) deals because he's skeptical of the impacts of the CBA? Could be the reason for him to hold off on signing longterm FA contracts for now.

[Nivek]

In the new CBA there's really no such thing as a long-term commitment. If they're signing someone else's free agent, the longest deal a team can give is 4 years. If they're re-signing one of their own, a contract can run 5 years.

[Nivek]

Zonker: There's an option 2A -- buy out Lewis, amnesty Blatche and then sign a free agent to a modest multi-year contract. I think nate has posted about how big that signing could have been without sacrificing a maximum contract possibility next offseason.

[fishercob]

Zonker: There's an option 2A -- buy out Lewis, amnesty Blatche and then sign a free agent to a modest multi-year contract. I think nate has posted about how big that signing could have been without sacrificing a maximum contract possibility next offseason.

How much better does the deal become if either or both of the new guys opt out of their deals next summer? I know you still would be against the deal, but how much would the overall impact be lessened in your eyes.

If Ariza opts out and Blatche is amnestied, we'd be on the hook for about $51M for 10 guys, including #3, excluding #32.

[Nivek]

If both Okafor and Ariza opted out, AND the Wiz amnestied Blatche, the Wiz would be right back at the max salary space and at that point my objections to the deal would be moot. It would be much like the year the Wiz signed Arenas. The only reason the Wiz had sufficient cap room to sign him was because Bryon Russell opted out of the 2nd year of his deal. Unfortunately, the Wizards don't have Jordan around to make Okafor and Ariza so miserable that they're willing to flush substantial sums of money to get out of town.

If your other scenario happens -- Ariza opts out and the Wiz amnesty Blatche -- the Wiz could have about $6.9 million in cap space (assuming no increase in the cap) depending on what else they do.