2011-12 RealGM Player of the Year Voting Thread

[Doctor MJ]

This thread is intended for tallying up votes for this year's RealGM NBA Player of the Year.

If you'd like to see the larger Discussion thread that preceded it, here ya go:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1184405

The POY represents who has had the best season including the playoffs. It is not expected that everyone uses the exact same criteria because that is unrealistic, however I do expect some explanation for your votes here. I also want to make clear that voting based on what someone "could have done" is not allowed. For example, last year Dwight Howard was #2 in my own list. I still think he's capable of that in the right situation, but I'm not going to rank here based on how much he would have done for his team if he were playing in a situation he liked better, and neither should you. I'm not saying you can't vote for Howard, but you've got to explain your thoughts (all thoughts for all players you include), and it's got to be based on what a player did this year.

Included below is the voter pool I've put together from the Discussion Thread. If your name is not on the list, and you think it should be, please PM me. My general rule here is that I was looking for people with consistent participation in the thread especially among people who haven't participated in these projects before. It is possible I missed people though.

1. An Unbiased Fan
2. bastillion
3. Black Feet
4. C-iz Me
5. colt18
6. DavidStern
7. Doctor MJ
8. DrMufasa
9. drza
10. ElGee
11. GreenHat
12. HeartBreakKid
13. JordansBulls
14. josephpaul
15. lukekarts
16. MisterWestside
17. mysticbb
18. Narigo
19. penbeast0
20. RocketPower
21. ronnymac2
22. rrravenred
23. Sinant
24. StateOfThunder
25. therealbig3
26. Vinsanity420
27. AnaheimRoyale
28. ardee

To be as clear as possible:

1. If you are NOT on the voter list, then DON'T make anything in this thread resembling a Top 5 vote here. Contact me if you'd like, but I'm just going to get annoyed if you make my life harder sneaking in votes here.

2. Voters make ONE and ONLY ONE Top 5 vote. If you want to change your vote, that's fine, but I don't want to be halfway through my tallying and realize I need to go un-count your earlier vote. Do that and I may just not count anything from you.

Cheers,
Doc

[Dr Positivity]

1. Lebron James - Not even close. One of the greatest seasons of all time + one of the weakest 2-5 years I can think of in memory.

2. Kevin Durant - I'm not his biggest pusher but he was at worst the 3rd best player in the regular season, has a huge intangibles effect on the Thunder seemingly, then had a terrific playoff run and Finals in vain

3. Chris Paul - Was my #2 in the regular season and the entire Clips centered around him. Ok in the 2nd round, but overall, there's just not any other viable players to pass him here

4. Kevin Garnett - Anchored Boston's defense, was awesome in the playoffs, overall still a HUGE impact player. Still can't put him over the top 3 young guys in their prime for the consistent impact physically they have

5. Dwyane Wade - Off and on season but still very good advanced stats, had his moments in the playoffs (1983 Julius Erving mode), is one of the smartest players in the league, elite defender. Nobody else jumps up to grab 5th spot. Westbrook is too out of control still and a worse defender. Dirk probably mailed this year in more than Wade.

[C-izMe]

1. Lebron James - Was clearly the best player. I would say barely in the regular season (CP3 doesn't get enough love) and clearly in the postseason. Averaged 27/8/6 on 60TS on the regular season and 30/10/5 on 56TS in the postseason. Was a top 25 defender (could go higher but I haven't made a list) and even though he was sorta abused by bigs in the playoffs (I would say KG and West got the best of him when Bosh was out) he stepped his game up offensively. Whenever his team needed him he responded in a 40 point, 10+ rebound game or a triple double. IMO his mindset wasn't the difference between last year (where I ranked him 3rd) and this year (the role players playing their role which helped him gain confidence was the major difference IMO) but it certainly helped a lot.

2. Kevin Durant - I really think Paul was more impactful, and that KD was helped a lot by Westbrook and Harden but for some reason I keep puttin KD at 2. I usually like to count the postseason Hal as much as the regular season so I could argue that KDs postseason was that much better than Paul's (where he was injured). Durant was outplayed IMO in every round but the WCF but he was über clutch, and efficent scoring at 61TS. In the regular season I had him as the third best player next to Paul and Lebron as he coasted to 28/8/3.5 on 60.5TS. His defense was average and he had many major flaws that were all shown in the Finals but this was a weak year all around. He probably would've been 5th-7th last year.

3. Chris Paul - Would be higher if not for injuries in the playoffs. He still led the Clippers to an upset (with a lot of help from the bench) and was the true regular season MVP. The Clippers went from a 32 win team to a 50 win team despite losing their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th best players. He averaged 20/4/9 on 58TS.

4. Kevin Garnett - The real DPOY led the number one defense, and averaged 16/8/3 on 55TS and 19/11/3 on 54TS in the playoffs where he fell one game short of the Finals.

5. Dirk Nowitzki - 21.5/7/2 on 56 TS. Next to Paul is the mos relied on player in the league IMO. His team falls to crap without him. He played great in the playoffs with 27/6/2 on 56TS but his early season injuries set him back below KG.

[ElGee]

2012 POY Vote
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Dwyane Wade

James is one of the bigger winners in this project -- an enormous gap between his season and No. 2. No. 2 is a challenging spot, as Chris Paul was the second best player in the world this year. Yet everyone seems to making a huge to-do about his playoffs. Well, I watched his playoffs, and he didn't have a great go against San Antonio (minor injury alert). But this always taxes my criteria.

IF a player is on a team worthy of winning a title, does that team need max Chris Paul for the second round? Would he have been fine in the Conference Finals? Wasn't he plenty good against Memphis? Isn't 4 games WAY too small a sample to definitively state "this guy doesn't really help me win a title?"

Durant goes third. I realize I've probably never delved deeply into Durant territory, but he's like a Ray Allen (Seattle years) on steroids. I really like what drza said about him in the discussion.

Dwyane Wade goes next. He did miss a lot of games, which gives me some pause. But let's not overstate his struggles -- his box score "advanced" metrics were up from last year. He was all over the place in the PS with the drained knee, but high variance does not mean bad (and may I remind people of Kobe Bryant's 1st round in 2010!): In Miami's 16 wins, Wade averaged 24.4 ppg 5.3 rpg 4.3 apg 1.8 spg 1.1 bpg on 57% TS. Not too shabby for a clear role shift and second option of sorts. He wouldn't make my top-50 in 06 or 07 (or maybe not any year since 01) but for this year of injuries it's 4th best.

The last spot is actually a no-brainer for me. I'm closer to giving Dirk the nod at 4 over Wade than Westbrook, KG or Kobe are to passing Dirk at No. 5. Mystic has made sound Dirk arguments and I still see him as quite good -- comparable to 2008 IMO.

EDIT: I am giving Dirk the No. 4 spot. Wade's injury woes pull him behind Dirk.

[therealbig3]

I've been convinced by the discussions to not include Wade or Kobe. Kobe didn't have a top 5 impact, and Wade was just too inconsistent and didn't play enough. Normally, he more than makes up for his durability issues with dominant playoff runs, but he didn't have one this year. Howard was not only not all that great this year, but he was also injured for the playoffs.

LeBron is easily #1 for me, don't think I need to really go into that. Durant vs Paul for 2 and 3 is tough and is basically a toss-up. Overall, I think Durant was a bit overrated, and that Paul is still a superior offensive player, while I don't care for either's defense. Paul did break down towards the end of the playoffs due to an injury, while Durant had an overall outstanding playoffs run...but team context matters. Durant did have Westbrook and Harden, while Paul didn't really have anyone. Griffin got pretty badly exposed in the Spurs series imo. For as talented as the Clippers supporting cast is (and it is talented), they fall apart when Paul misses time or sits on the bench. He had unfortunate timing with his injury, but they weren't getting past the Spurs anyway, and I don't think that erases Paul's awesome regular season, in which he carried the Clippers to a top 5 offense. In fact, Paul was my #2 pick for MVP this year, behind LeBron. Paul's regular season was clearly a bit better than Durant's imo.

Dirk and KG both had great seasons, but I think Dirk is a better player than KG at this point (above average defender, and still an elite offensive anchor). Although KG carried the Celtics with some monster games, he also kind of broke down and showed that he couldn't carry the offensive load night in and night out for the Celtics, which is why I give Dirk the edge. KG's defense is still outstanding, "best in the league" good, which is why he's in my top 5. Shout out to Nash, he deserves some mention, but not actually a vote imo.

1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Kevin Garnett

[StateOfThunder]

1. Lebron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Kevin Garnett
5. Kobe Bryant

-LeBron James is obviously #1. He is the #1 player in the league and had easily the best season. He finally broke the curse of not being able to win the title while winning the regular season MVP. The first player to do so since Duncan in '03. He didn't have a single bad playoff game or at least it didn't seem like. LeBron was almost like a one man show this season which is odd because he went to Miami to avoid doing that but he had to do it this season specifically in the post-season to win it all and he did.

-Kevin Durant is easily my #2. He is the best scorer in the league and the 2nd best overall player in the league. He was tremendous in the post-season and put up crazy good numbers in all of the playoffs series. He also played great in the Finals against LeBron and almost matched his play but LeBron was just slightly better and most importantly LeBron's teammates/supporting cast was far better in the Finals. I don't see many or any black marks that many can point out this season by Durant. He had a tremendous season and has improved as an overall player tremendously

-Chris Paul is my #3. I felt like by definition, he was the "most valuable player." I feel like if you took out Chris Paul out of all the players in the top 5, his team would be the most screwed and lose the most. I feel like if you take out LeBron from Miami, Miami would still make the playoffs, same with Durant for OKC, Kobe in LAL, and KG in Boston, I don't think the same could be said for CP3 for LAC though. Chris Paul didn't have a great playoffs though which is why I have him at #3 and not #2 and while he was injured in those playoffs or at least at the end, it doesn't matter because durability is part of the game. He still had a great overall season.

-I explained why Kobe was #4 when I had first posted in the discussion thread. He was more consistent, made more of an impact, and was more valuable than Wade was this season. Wade was horribly inconsistent all season long and the playoffs didn't help his case, it supported my case. I have KG above Kobe now because he made more of an impact than Kobe did this season overall on offense and on defense. Kobe was pretty inefficient and he didn't play much defense this season. KG had a slow start but he eventually picked it up in the 2nd half of the season and definitely in the post-season. KG was looking like prime KG for the first 2-3 playoff series and then he ran out of gas at the end of the ECF at least it seemed like. KG carried his Celtics to the ECF with his great defense and his great offense. Kobe also carried his offense too for the Lakers and he played pretty well and consistent in the post-season which is why I have him at #5 above Westbrook and Wade.

[colts18]

Before the Finals, there was a good argument for James Harden in the top 5. He was definitely a top 5 offensive player.

Harden on court: 115.0 O rating
Harden off court: 100.8 O rating

Thunders starting lineup: 102 O Rating
Starters+Harden-Thabo: 114 O Rating

Durant/Westbrook together on the court have a 110.7 O Rating
Durant/Westbrook plus Harden: 117.5 O Rating
Durant/Westbrook no Harden: 103.4 O Rating

[C-izMe]

Before the Finals, there was a good argument for James Harden in the top 5. He was definitely a top 5 offensive player.

Harden on court: 115.0 O rating
Harden off court: 100.8 O rating

Thunders starting lineup: 102 O Rating
Starters+Harden-Thabo: 114 O Rating

Durant/Westbrook together on the court have a 110.7 O Rating
Durant/Westbrook plus Harden: 117.5 O Rating
Durant/Westbrook no Harden: 103.4 O Rating

Post the defense numbers. He loses half that impact on the other end.

[Vinsanity420]

Post the defense numbers. He loses half that impact on the other end.

Well, not half... but it's significant. Harden had a -1.7 RAPM this year on defense... that's really, really, bad.

[An Unbiased Fan]

1) Lebron - MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D defense, Finals MVP, crazy production.

2) Durant - #2 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, scoring champ, great regular season, and great playoffs at 29/7/4.

3) Kobe - #4 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D defense, 28/5/5 in RS, and 30/5/4 in PS. His efficiency dipped, but that was due to a new offensive system they were integrating.

4) CP3 - #3 in MVP, All-NBA 1st team, All-D 1st team. Stats don't accurately reflect Paul's impact on the Clippers this season.

5) Love - #6 in MVP, All-NBA 2nd, 26/13 in production. Rebound champ, 22 games with 15+ rebounds

[JordansBulls]

Rankings

1. Lebron James (won league and finals mvp, led in nearly every advanced metric stat)
2. Kevin Durant (scoring champ who had high efficiency and productivity, led team to the finals and knocked off 3 of the last 4 champions in the process.)
3. Chris Paul (good productivity, led Clips to the playoffs and had good efficiency and productivity)
4. Dwyane Wade (High producitivity and efficiency in the regular season and even in the playoffs, produced in games that mattered most and his experience of getting it done is what propelled his team to the title.)
5. Russell Westbrook (consistent for the season, had big games in the playoffs and big games in the regular season as well, a marquee 43 pt game in the finals as well.)

HM: Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett

[MisterWestside]

1. James
2. Durant
3. Paul
4. Harden
5. Wade

Other posters have echoed my sentiments about the top three players on my list, so I won't elaborate here. (I'll say that Durant is number 2 because even if his +/- numbers aren't as impressive as some other players, he still had good with +/- impact while also dominating the box score - and he did this all season long). Harden was all-around brilliant; high marks in virtually every advanced stat, and I'm not holding that Finals against him. Wade ranks a little lower because he didn't play as much as the others during the regular season, but he was still great overall even as he played with his knee injury. He had some duds in the playoffs, but he made up for it with some impressive performances.

Garnett and Nowitzki are still highly-productive players, but I think their on-off impact is a bit overstated: Garnett because of the lack of depth in the Boston frontline (especially in the playoffs); Nowitzki because his team as it's constructed around him is so reliant on his presence on the floor. Ironic, I know; and I think Nowitzki is a great player who would thrive anywhere he plays. But even ridge-regressed +/- (while useful) isn't immune to team effects, and I'm not just awarding "value" here.

[Sinant]

Official vote

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Kevin Garnett
5. Dwyane Wade

I still feel poorly about the last spot, but no one else had a case that resonated with me more.

LeBron is an obvious number 1. Durant over Paul for me. As much as I hate this argument, I can't speak against the advanced stats that say Durant doesn't impact the game as much as it seems like he should be, but watching Kevin Durant play over these last few seasons, this is his best year yet. He's a merciless scorer, officially. Paul and KG follow that as the two very high impact guys who have their flaws. Wade rounds it out because I honestly feel he's the best non-Dwight (and Dwight would be in the Top 5 if not the season ending injury) player left. He was injured, and rusty for a lot of the season, but when he's on, it's gorgeous to watch. The way he handled the LeBron transition was great as well. Part of being a great player is the little chemistry/team stuff that doesn't show up but makes a difference, and Wade handled his own team well (even if he was a brat for the most part otherwise this season).

[Mo26]

, but high variance does not mean bad (and may I remind people of Kobe Bryant's 1st round in 2010!): .

Oh u mean the run where he put up 29/6/6/2/57% TS.

Far superior to D-Whistle.

Funny how you're always bringing up Bryant.

[ronnymac2]

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Russell Westbrook
4. Chris Paul
5. Dwyane Wade

Super HM: Dirk Nowitzki

HM: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Love

LeBron James had a great, great season. It was 2009 in a different style and with the benefit of better teammates. GOAT-type ****.

Kevin Durant had a great season. All-time great scorer, good defensive player, grew as an iso threat and slasher. He had an amazing playoff run.

I've got Westbrook at third. He was my fourth-best player in the league in the regular season (I had him making the All-NBA First Team alongside CP3, though Paul is the superior player by a little bit). Although I'm cool with not docking Paul too much for the injury, I'd still rather have RW's playoff run. Paul was hurt in the middle of that Memphis series. LA probably takes the Grizz out earlier if Paul isn't hurt there; so I challenge the assertion that Paul's injury really only affected LA for the second round series. Paul looked hurt in the last seven games of the year; the only great games he put together were game 7 vs. MEM and game 4 vs. SA. That hurts.

Westbrook was amazing throughout. He did what was necessary against Dallas, then torched the Lakers. He came up in big spots against SA and then destroyed Miami in the Finals imo. His turnovers were under 3 per game for the playoffs, and OKC's offense was fantastic. He and KD were a dominant 1-2 punch in the NBA Finals. I don't put any blame on either of them for the loss. Westbrook only "made mistakes" when the team was being stagnant and he was forced to be aggressive. He did his job, doing what his team needed to when its fatal flaws caught up to it. They may not have won, but it wasn't Westbrook's fault.

Wade and Dirk battled for the fifth spot. Originally, I had Dirk in my top 5 because he had a decent season and then looked unguardable against OKC. Wade, though inconsistent in the playoffs, still showed up in big spots and wins the tiebreakers over Dirk this year. Dirk gets that super HM though.

[Vinsanity420]

My Top 5:

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. Paul
4. Dirk
5. Westbrook

HM: KG, Nash, Wade

I had already stated my Top 3... those were locks. I opted for Dirk in the end at #4. Looking back at his year, it feels much stronger now than I originally thought. Advanced numbers aside, I go game by game in the playoffs, and he played incredibly well considering how the rest of his team was essentially crap. He had a bad stretch during the year, but this was a down year for most superstars, and it feels like everyone essentially did have really bad stretches. I debated KG vs Dirk for a while, but numbers wise it appears Dirk was valuable on defense this year. Rick Carlisle changed his team's strategy this year, with Tyson Chandler gone... to focus on D more and maximize his team's wins, and Dirk appears to be valuable in his rotation, which makes him more valuable than KG.

Westbrook was difficult here. I think ultimately though, this guy is a nightmare for any defense. He's like this mad energizer bunny hopper... I still remember that single play in the NBA finals... where Durant misses the shot and Westbrook leaps in out of nowhere to get coral the miss in. Series after series in the playoffs, I was fine with his decision making ( it obviously wasn't Paul or Nash level, but it was decent... he definitely had a better year here on the passing end, even if the assists say otherwise), and the numbers generally represent him having equal to Wade impact in the RS and his APM skyrocketed in the postseason. I'll take him at #5.

Wade, I stated my case... too many bad moments for me, and missed time in addition to that. Doesn't quite cut it. KG was great, but ultimately his offense falls slightly short for my expectations. He did fine on that end in the playoffs, but I wasn't quite impressed with what he had to go against at the C position, where he was clearly far more productive this year. Nash was like Dirk, carrying his team on O close to the playoffs... just doesn't match Dirk's value on D. Still, all guys that had strong cases for Top 5 in my mind.

[mysticbb]

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Dirk Nowitzki
5. Kevin Garnett

Edit: Reasoning:

For me a player performance is definded by 3 things: production, efficiency and impact. My SPM is based on the combination of production and efficiency while adjusting for the strength of schedule. That would be one aspect, the other aspect would be impact, and I use the best available method for that, prior informed RAPM.

The combination (linear combination of SPM and RAPM based on best fit) has currently (without the game last night between OKC and the Spurs) the following Top30 (values are per 100 possessions):

Code: Select all

Name                   Off    Def  Off+Def
LeBron James           5.1    2.1    7.1
Dirk Nowitzki          3.5    2.1    5.6
Chris Paul             4.9    0.3    5.2
Manu Ginobili          4.8    0.3    5.1
Kevin Durant           4.1    0.8    4.9
Kevin Garnett          1.2    3.6    4.8
Dwyane Wade            3.9    0.8    4.7
Tim Duncan             1.5    3.1    4.6
Dwight Howard          0.9    3.7    4.6
Derrick Rose           3.9    0.5    4.3
Josh Smith             1.2    2.8    4.0
Steve Nash             4.2   -0.2    4.0
Blake Griffin          2.9    0.9    3.8
Kevin Love             3.0    0.7    3.7
Tony Parker            3.2    0.3    3.5
Paul Millsap           1.8    1.6    3.4
Chris Bosh             1.3    2.0    3.3
Russell Westbrook      3.7   -0.4    3.3
James Harden           3.7   -0.5    3.2
LaMarcus Aldridge      2.0    1.0    3.0
Kobe Bryant            3.5   -0.6    3.0
Luol Deng              0.1    2.8    2.9
Marc Gasol             0.3    2.4    2.8
Stephen Curry          2.5    0.3    2.8
Pau Gasol              1.5    1.2    2.7
Danny Granger          2.1    0.6    2.7
Zach Randolph          1.4    1.2    2.6
Taj Gibson             0.1    2.4    2.5
Paul Pierce            1.0    1.5    2.5
Matt Bonner            2.0    0.5    2.5


Obviously, players have different responsibilities in terms of minutes. Thus, we should factor that in. That would give me the following Top30 for this season:

Code: Select all

LeBron James            7.38
Kevin Durant            6.01
Chris Paul              5.06
Dirk Nowitzki           4.81
Kevin Garnett           4.51
Blake Griffin           4.45
Russell Westbrook       4.32
Josh Smith              4.31
Dwyane Wade             4.27
Dwight Howard           3.87
Pau Gasol               3.83
Kobe Bryant             3.78
Kevin Love              3.73
Tim Duncan              3.70
Marc Gasol              3.70
Tony Parker             3.67
James Harden            3.57
Paul Millsap            3.56
Steve Nash              3.54
Paul Pierce             3.49
Luol Deng               3.40
Chris Bosh              3.35
Danny Granger           3.32
Andre Iguodala          3.29
Mike Conley             3.20
Rajon Rondo             3.15
LaMarcus Aldridge       3.08
Andrew Bynum            2.98
Carmelo Anthony         2.75
Ryan Anderson           2.71


[lorak]

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. Garnett
4. Chris Paul
5. Kobe

[AnaheimRoyale]

lol at Kobe in the top 5. Did people watch him this season? For stretches he was outright trash.

[Narigo]

1. Lebron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Kevin Garnett
5. Dirk Nowitzki

HM: Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, Steve Nash

1. Lebron James- He was easily best player in the regular season and the playoffs. Had enornous impact on offense and defense. Despite Bosh missing some time in the playoffs due to a injury and Wade playing subpar due to a lingering knee injury, he was able to carry the Heat to a title.

2. Kevin Durant- Durant and Paul is basically a wash. But I have Durant higher because he performed better in the playoffs.

3. Chris Paul- Probably could have been second if he would have played better in the playoffs. Though not his fault, he was injured. Very impactful on offense in the regular season

4. Kevin Garnett- In my opinion, he should have won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award. KG anchored the number 1 ranked defense in the league. In the playoffs, The Celtics struggled on defense when he was off the floor. He also able to to step it up on offensive in the PS as well averaging 19 a game.

5. Dirk Nowitzki- At first, I was going to go with Westbrook at the 5th spot. But I decided to changed my vote and go with Dirk mostly what he did on offense. With the exception of Terry and Carter, most of the players on the Mavericks had a negative RAPM on offense. So basically Dirk carried the entire offensive load on the team. Also played very good defense too.