12-13 Statistical Predictions for Beal

[BruceO]

Beal with his shooting ability is going to have he green light to score...age isn't an issue because he's experienced and has an nba ready body. I don't see why he can't put up around he same numbers Crawford, nick young put up here. And taking his draft slot and how much we are invested in him and how well young guards have been doing lately (wall, Kylie, mayo) I'd say with shooting ability and playing backp point 11ppg I too low. Going with 16ppg maybe 17

[hands11]

Rookie of the year him or Thomas Robinson

Agreed.

I have no idea what he will post for numbers but he will having an impact. I think the first half of the year will be him settling in from 3 land. Then he will start to slowly open it up.

[pancakes3]

Anthony Davis is the favorite for ROY. 17ppg for Beal is... VERY unlikely.

[DaRealHibachi]

Wall, with no jumper whatsoever, scored 16.4ppg on .409% shooting in his rookie season, how is Beal *not* able to beat that...??

IMO, Beal will get around the same PPG on 43-44%, 35-37% & 80%...

[verbal8]

The recent number 3 picks(Favors, Kanter and Harden) haven't played much as rookies. However I think that is the exception rather than the norm. Kanter and Favors were young bigs, so their low minutes aren't as unusual. Harden came on to a team with an established starter than played every game. The Thunder also were a 50 win team that season, so there wasn't much reason to take a look at Harden as a starter.

I don't expect him to get 38 minutes a game and start from day 1 like Mayo, but I think the high 20s is more likely than the low 20s for his minutes.

[jangles86]

I do see John Wall averaging 10apg + 20ppg + 5rpg. All-star appearance aswell

[pancakes3]

Wall, with no jumper whatsoever, scored 16.4ppg on .409% shooting in his rookie season, how is Beal *not* able to beat that...??

IMO, Beal will get around the same PPG on 43-44%, 35-37% & 80%...

well, aside from a talent disparity, wall wasl also licensed to score and touched the ball on every single possession he played. i don't see beal being afforded that kind of luxury. wall will still have first dibs on shot selection, and i wouldn't be surprised if the pick and roll game is used heavily again this season with Nene being the 2nd option and Beal will be relegated to 3a or 3b along with Ariza as the kick out.

on top of all that, beal won't get minutes right off the bat. maybe by mid-december he'll earn steady minutes but in the first 6 weeks or so when he's racking up 4 pt efforts, he'll need that many more 28 pt efforts later on to come out with a 16pt average.

i think 8ppg is reasonable, 12 ppg optimistic, and 15+ pretty unlikely. Ray Allen only put up 13 as a rookie and he was coming off back-to-back 20+ppg seasons at Uconn.

[fishercob]

I think he'll only play about 22 minutes a game so I'm not expecting too much. He's just a 19-year-old rookie.

I think he'll be much better in his second season. Remember, Harden didn't really make an impact until his 2nd year, and didn't emerge as a borderline star until his 3rd. And Harden had 2 years of college.

Yes. Everyone, please keep your rookie expectations for BB3 (?) under control.

Just for a little, non-scientific comparison, here's a look at Kobe, Harden, Paul George, Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon as rookies. Kobe was 18, everyone else was 20.

It's going to take some time.

WIth all the irrational Beal hate being spewed, keep in mind two things:

(1) His struggles were foreseeable. Not just by his early season struggles at FLorida (btw, how short of a memory do people have -- this kid stunk the early part of last season and then became The Man on a very good college team), but when looking at historical comps for rookie teeanged guards. That subset of players just doesn't come in and dominate. There's an adjustment period.

(2) Particularly given #1, Ernie and the Wizards have done a terrible job of putting Beal in a position to succeed. They're playing him way too many minutes. When he's on the floor, he's being asked to do way too much -- there are 10 year veteran deferring to Beal and looking to him to create offense. Is he missing open looks? Absolutely, but his his head is likely a mess given his undefined role, the fact that he has too much on his shoulders, etc. The point is not to make an excuse for Beal. The point is that Ernie sucks.

There are litlerally dozens of moves the Wizards could have made this summer apart from going "all-in" on the OkaRiza deal that would have made Beal's transition easier. Everything from making a similar deal for a vet SG like Ben Gordon to signing the likes of OJ Mayo, to bringing in more offensively skilled front court players like Scola or RYan Anderson or Brand who could have taken some scoring burden off our teenager.

Long term, I'm not worried. I think Beal is mentally tough enough to get through this. Short term, it's frustrating for all involved and yet ANOTHER example of the putrid idiocy of Ernie Grunfeld. Suck it, Rico!