2012 Draft, Part VII

[Upper Decker]

To piggy back on Nate's post, the Bulls jumped from 41 wins in 2010 to 62 wins in 2011. The increase stemed from two primary causes 1) they signed Boozer, however, he missed 23 games and was generally considered a major disappointment, 2) Rose jumped from an above average player to an elite player in his 3rd year.

The prevailing thought is that Wall will make a similar jump in his 3rd season. Wall has demonstrated extented stretches of elite play (Jan '12 he averaged 19/9/5 on 48% shooting). I expect that type of play to be more consistent as he has better teammates and a more professional environment.

[The Consiglieri]

Yep, I think we are better too, but there's not really any precedent for an improvement of that degree, 15+ wins? I dont see the talent to suggest that's a reasonable floor or basic expectation or ceiling. To improve that radically traditionally requires the acquisition of a Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, or LeBron type franchise talent. We didn't add anyone remotely like that in terms of difference making, we just made incremental or moderate improvements all over the place. That should help for sure, but more reasonably the expectation should be 10 or lower, especially considering the injury history/age of most of the additions. For the record its fine with me, I think our team needs 1 more quality player from the draft before we're playoff bound, and w/next years draft featuring a nice little pile of good small forwards like Adonis Thomas, Tony Mitchell (maybe a bit of a stretch 4), Nash, Porter and Poythress, we might be just in the right slotting to find that last piece for the starting lineup, maybe not a superstar, but a good player.

Just so I understand the reasoning, you think with the current additions, we will go from 20 wins to only 23-30 wins? But with the addition of one more quality player we'll jump up an additional 10-17 wins? I ask this because we added two starting centers and a starting SF, in addition to the top SG in the draft. Who will this magical player be next year (at somewhere between picking #8 and #13 or so) that will boost us to playoff glory?

Nope. You read me wrong. As I've posted elsewhere, with the 25 win season (in a normal 82 season format we would have had 25 wins, although its skewed by the strange schedule and the winning streak against backups), my projection is a -12 win improvement, somewhere between 32 and 37 wins, a floor would be about 28 wins.

[The Consiglieri]

Yep, I think we are better too, but there's not really any precedent for an improvement of that degree, 15+ wins? I dont see the talent to suggest that's a reasonable floor or basic expectation or ceiling. To improve that radically traditionally requires the acquisition of a Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, or LeBron type franchise talent. We didn't add anyone remotely like that in terms of difference making, we just made incremental or moderate improvements all over the place.

First of all, don't forget that we had 20 wins in a 66 game season. That's about a 26-win pace in a normal season (And frankly, given how we were playing down the stretch, we probably would have won more than 6 games if we tacked on another 18 games to the end of the season. But I digress.) So to get to 35 wins, we only need a 9-game improvement. I think that the addition of one top 10ish center (Nene), two average starters (Ariza and Okafor) and the 3rd pick in the draft (at a position of dire need) is good enough to get us that 9-game improvement. And that doesn't even factor the expected improvement out of Wall, Vesely and Seraphin.

Secondly, to your question about precedent I offer the following:
Minnesota jumped from 17 wins in 2011 to a 32-win pace in 2012
Indiana jumped from 37 wins in 2011 to a 52-win pace in 2012
Philadelphia jumped from 27 wins in 2010 to 41 in 2011
Golden State jumped from 26 wins in 2010 to 36 wins in 2011
Memphis jumped from 24 wins in 2009 to 40 wins in 2010

And that's just the last 3 seasons and I excluded instances like the Clippers who acquired a franchise player in a lopsided trade or Miami adding the Big Three. Fact is, every year you can expect to see at least 1 team make a least a 10-win improvement, and usually it's 2 teams, with at least one of them improving around 15 wins. So the question you need to ask youself is not: "Will anybody improve 10-15 games?" It's: "Which team is going to improve 10-15 games?" I say it's the Wizards. We substantially upgraded every single position (assuming Wall improves) and with our old starters moving to the bench, we have improved our depth.

Minnesota was radically improved by a transformational player, and while Golden State didn't do that, they did get very good players in trades, Memphis, and Philly and Indiana are outstanding examples for your arguments though, although Memphis win total was basically built on the back of two players improving to borderline stars. Great examples with Philly, Indy and Memphis, those are similar templates to ours and our the explosive win total ideals that you mention. I dont think Golden State and Minny fit it though for different reasons. Very good research, and thanks!

[The Consiglieri]

To piggy back on Nate's post, the Bulls jumped from 41 wins in 2010 to 62 wins in 2011. The increase stemed from two primary causes 1) they signed Boozer, however, he missed 23 games and was generally considered a major disappointment, 2) Rose jumped from an above average player to an elite player in his 3rd year.

The prevailing thought is that Wall will make a similar jump in his 3rd season. Wall has demonstrated extented stretches of elite play (Jan '12 he averaged 19/9/5 on 48% shooting). I expect that type of play to be more consistent as he has better teammates and a more professional environment.

Nice example. if Wall can make that jump it will be a very interesting season and rebuild. I wonder where we'll get a final piece from? We now have the backcourt we want, and maybe at least above average talent, and depth at Center, but we're at best merely functional at center. We need another piece to be a team worth fearing. If not in the draft (Poythress, Mitchell, Thomas, Porter, Nash) then it has to be free agency.

[theboomking]

Overall draft thoughts:

I first heard of Beal from theboomking last year and was instantly intruiged:

I actually think we could be really help ourselves with any top 10 pick next year. IMHO, Bad (sic) Beal would look fantastic in a Wizard Uni. For those that aren't familiar, Beal is a 6'4.5" shooting guard that will be attending Florida next year. Bradley is slightly undersized for a SG, and possesses very good, but not elite athleticism. Beal has a winning pedigree, having been the best player on winning teams both in H.S., and in international play. Beal is best known for being an incredible shooter with unbelievable range, and a very pure, consistent stroke. As a senior, Beal shot 73% from the field, and having watched him play in two All Star games, I can attest that his shot is a thing of beauty. Beal is also widely recognized for being very mature and efficient, rebounding the ball well, making the correct pass, and not being turnover prone.

Well, that did work well. Lets try again.

I actually think we could really help ourselves with any pick in the top 3 next year. IMHO, Shabazz Muhammed would look fantastic in a Wizard uni...

[The Consiglieri]

I like you're thinking! And of course with Noel, and McAdoo as a backup plan, and Cody Zeller as a potential flier .

[hands11]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... _Jones_III

Wow, so much has been going on lately that I forgot OKC drafted him.

What a great place for him to land. This greatly lowers his bust potential and raises they likely hood that in 2-3 years the kid could look very interesting. And if he develops and matures, you can't keep everyone forever can they.

OKC got more experience this year. Miami is not a lock. OKC isn't going away.

[DCZards]

OKC got more experience this year. Miami is not a lock. OKC isn't going away.

The Heat? OKC better worry about the Lakers and their new PG.

[mohammed10]

OKC got more experience this year. Miami is not a lock. OKC isn't going away.

The Heat? OKC better worry about the Lakers and their new PG.

DCZ - Given the way they dispatched the Lakers this year, I am sure OKC is not exactly quaking in their collective boots

[theboomking]

John Jenkins looked very good today. I don't think he will be as good as Beal overall, but Jenkins is the better shooter and scorer. I was lobbying for Jenkins and Beal, or Jenkins and Gilchrist. I hope he doesnt blow up in the league so I don't have that bitter Faried aftertaste that CCJ must have. Imagine how much better our team shooting would be with Beal and Jenkins. Whatever 'it' is, I think Jenkins has 'it', at least on offense.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Four straight miserable tank years and here's what we have to show for it:

Two legitimate NBA starters: Wall and Beal

One potential NBA starter: Seraphin

One reasonable rotation guy: Booker

Two end of bench players: Vesely, Singleton

Several wtfs: Santorasky, Mack, Miller, Foye, Ndyae

The 2011 draft is looking more and more like a total miss.

Think about the delta between mid to late first round value last year to this year. Jenkins was picked, what, about six picks later than Singleton. Sullinger was picked three or four picks later. PJ III, ten picks later.