Asik Discussion. Pg 50 Sheridan: Bulls will match

[DuckIII]

I don't get it. Are people suggesting that we could trade Omer after the start of the 2014-15 season? If that were the case...wouldn't his contract of 14-15 million that season still keep us from being able to do anything in the offseason? What's the point of trading him at some point in the season if we already screwed ourself in the offseason because of his contract?

The idea is that the expiring contract itself provides value and could yield a very good return. It would go something like this:

(1) Keeping Asik for two years is better than not keeping him, because it helps maximize the Bulls chances for two postseasons of Rose's career.

(2) Then during the third year, his expiring is a valuable trade asset to help with that third postseason run, or at the very worst you just overpay him for that one year.

As for the summer before that season, I don't know the projected salary structure, but its my understanding that Deng expires and Boozer can be amnestied. Even with Asik, perhaps that still frees up enough for a big free agent acquisition. I don't know, I'll let someone better at it than me do the math on that.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I don't get it. Are people suggesting that we could trade Omer after the start of the 2014-15 season? If that were the case...wouldn't his contract of 14-15 million that season still keep us from being able to do anything in the offseason? What's the point of trading him at some point in the season if we already screwed ourself in the offseason because of his contract?

The idea is that the expiring contract itself provides value and could yield a very good return. It would go something like this:

(1) Keeping Asik for two years is better than not keeping him, because it helps maximize the Bulls chances for two postseasons of Rose's career.

(2) Then during the third year, his expiring is a valuable trade asset to help with that third postseason run, or at the very worst you just overpay him for that one year.

As for the summer before that season, I don't know the projected salary structure, but its my understanding that Deng expires and Boozer can be amnestied. Even with Asik, perhaps that still frees up enough for a big free agent acquisition. I don't know, I'll let someone better at it than me do the math on that.

If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

[Bruteque]

Let's call a spade a spade. There is usually a "good" player or two on bad contracts their team is looking to dump. They are called "albatross." I think here in Chicago the fans are intimitely familiar with such a thing, more familiar than they probably want to be. That's the sort of contracts that you can "readily" trade your expiring bad contracts for.

A good player on a good contract getting dumped, on the other hand, comes once in a blue moon, and when they do, at least a half dozen team will be in a bidding war throwing assets at it trying to land it. Even if such a thing comes along and the Bulls want to throw assets at it, they already have an expiring bad contract with which to facilitate such a deal.

If Boozer is still here, which I doubt. And as noted by Mech, Omer's expiring probably will have much more value than Boozer's. And while the trade market might be thin or fat, there's no way to know. Regardless, the worst case scenario is that you overpay Omer Asik for one season. One season. For the wealthiest team in the NBA.

I think most of the pro-match stance ultimately boils down to something along the line of:

"My $100m team with $8m backups is better than your $80m team with $500k backups."

However, I think the Bull management is operating under more accountability than:

"We can readily flip Asik for four years of 'Joe Johnson' for $168m of salary+tax since there is one of those available every year, and if there is not, we always have the luxury of paying $30m salary+tax for a backup."

I think that it is safe to assume that the Bulls are operating under financial constraints, even if that may be above the LT line. If the Bulls match, that $8m per for 15 minutes a game of Asik is going to come out of somewhere else. I mean, yeah, if money is of no concern, then matching is a no-brainer, but money is obviously a concern.

[DanTown8587]

I don't get it. Are people suggesting that we could trade Omer after the start of the 2014-15 season? If that were the case...wouldn't his contract of 14-15 million that season still keep us from being able to do anything in the offseason? What's the point of trading him at some point in the season if we already screwed ourself in the offseason because of his contract?

The idea is that the expiring contract itself provides value and could yield a very good return. It would go something like this:

(1) Keeping Asik for two years is better than not keeping him, because it helps maximize the Bulls chances for two postseasons of Rose's career.

(2) Then during the third year, his expiring is a valuable trade asset to help with that third postseason run, or at the very worst you just overpay him for that one year.

As for the summer before that season, I don't know the projected salary structure, but its my understanding that Deng expires and Boozer can be amnestied. Even with Asik, perhaps that still frees up enough for a big free agent acquisition. I don't know, I'll let someone better at it than me do the math on that.

If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

So now we're letting Deng walk, not signing Taj, amnestying Boozer SOLELY to afford Omer's contract. That's lunacy.

[Bruteque]

If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

So now we're letting Deng walk, not signing Taj, amnestying Boozer SOLELY to afford Omer's contract. That's lunacy.

The sad part is, even if the Bulls do all of that, they will still be better off with just Rose and Noah under contract and all the rest just cap space instead of a negative value Asik expiring. I would imagine that teams would much rather trade into empty cap space to rid themselves of salary than take on a bad contract $15m of Asik expiring. It's the simple principle of market value: Good contracts > good expiring contracts > cap space > bad expiring contracts > bad contracts.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

[If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

So now we're letting Deng walk, not signing Taj, amnestying Boozer SOLELY to afford Omer's contract. That's lunacy.

I answered Duck's hypothetical - I'm not advocating that course of action. We have a hundred different options in this 'choose-your-own-adventure' style game.

[RastaBull]

Thanks Duck. I suppose I see the reasoning. I prefer that scenario to the ones involving trading Noah. I think Noah and Rose should be the cornerstones of this team.

Possible 2014-15 contracts:

Rose - 17,832,627
Noah - 12,200,000
Butler - 2,008,748
Teague ~ 1,200,000 (guessing)
Gibson ~ 8,000,000 (guesstimate)
Miritoic ~ 2,000,00 (guesstimate)

That's about 43 million. If the salary cap is around 60 million, that leaves about 17 million for Starting SG, Back-Up SG, Starting/Back-up SF (depending on how the Bulls view Butler at that time) and a Back-up center. If we don't trade assets we'd have another two draft picks over the next two years to fill two of those three back-up spots.

So that's approx 14-15 Million for a Starting Wing and a Back-up SG/SF/C. Maybe we could snag Rudy Gay and fill in the pieces. Fill in three other perimeter players with Butler, a draft pick next year or 2014, and someone for the vet min, and use the Bobcats pick in possibly 2015 to solidify SG with a young athletic starter.


Sorry, I'm thinking way in advance...but this whole thought process in general made me see how foolish it would be to have Asik for 15 million in 2014-15 offseason.

Seriously, if you had to make a poll of who you would rather have signed to a contract that offseason:

Noah for 12,200,000
OR
Asik for 15,000,000

Would anyone on this forum pick Asik? (Remember, keeping boh of them even with Deng's expiring and Boozer's amnesty is not an option unless you're okay with zero spending money OR possibly having 8 million to spend with another hole by not resigning Gibson)

One love
RastaBull

[DanTown8587]

[If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

So now we're letting Deng walk, not signing Taj, amnestying Boozer SOLELY to afford Omer's contract. That's lunacy.

I answered Duck's hypothetical - I'm not advocating that course of action. We have a hundred different options in this 'choose-your-own-adventure' style game.

Tell me again why I would want Omer over Deng or Gibson in that hypothetical. That's the part that makes no sense.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Tell me again why I would want Omer over Deng or Gibson in that hypothetical. That's the part that makes no sense.

Because having Omer the next two years is better than not having Omer the next two years. Also, keeping Omer doesn't require us to let Deng and Taj walk-away.

[RastaBull]

One reason people want to match Asik is because it gives us two years to compete for a champion ship at paying him only 5 mil. I am optimistic and agree that the Bulls can win a championship in the next two years, but that is purely because of Derrick Rose. IF the Bulls win, it will be first and foremost by a long shot because Derrick Rose has an unbelievable playoffs. Secondly, because Noah remains healthy and averages closer to 15 and 15 than to 10 and 10. Three, because Boozer steps up and actually averages something closer 18ppg than to 14ppg. Four, because Deng remains consistent in what he provides.

Finally, the fifth factor being a tie between the defense provided by Gibson/Asik and the perimeter role players hitting open shots.

Not a strong enough argument to keep Asik and kill your shot at landing big time talent through FA after amnestying Boozer.

One love
RastaBull

[boogydown]

What is the deadline on Brewer?

[RastaBull]

Come on y'all, how pissed off would this board be come 2014 for the Bulls to amnesty Boozer so they could...keep Omer Asik. Even with the amnesty and letting Deng walk and not resigning Gibson that at best leaves us 8ish million...LOOK at the market...that affords Courtney Lee/OJ Mayo type talent and if we are amnestying Boozer I think we all would want to see a legit All-Star caliber wing next to Rose.

One love
RastaBull

[Jimako10]

I think Omer will have trade value if we match. Maggette's expiring brought in an overpriced 6th man (BG) and a lottery pick, and that was with a player who has negative value on the court which they will just let walk at the end. With Omer, teams will line up because most teams lack a player of Omer's size and defensive abilities. If you are a team with a horrible D that lacks a good defensive center (aka most the league), wouldn't you pay Omer 15 mil for ONE year and extend him to a more reasonable contract afterwards? Now you got a top 3 defensive center in the league. Reason why he's so undervalued here is because we already have 2 other really good defensive bigs, so he's not a need, but he would be a great need for another team and that reason is good enough to keep him and get something of value back. We should not be in the business of developing players and letting them walk for nothing.

[Cliff Levingston]

If the Bulls are honest with themselves, there's almost no chance the Bulls win a title next year with their best and only superstar player re-learning how to play (from the "trusting his body" standpoint). Omer would help without a doubt but he won't be the difference between winning a title and not, again, knowing that Rose won't be 100%.

The next season, we face the same thing with Taj. Assuming the Bulls do their normal "let the market set the value" strategy, Taj will get a really nice offer. We'll almost certainly have to let him walk with Asik's deal ballooning to $15 mil the next year and with Boozer/Noah already on the books. Assume Rose comes back 100% and we've basically still got the same team we have now minus Taj. Do we win a title? Probably not.

Might as well get a bit leaner in the meantime and maintain some flexibility for the future. Having Asik's $15 mil expiring contract is basically only good if you're going to trade it for a larger, long term deal. If we really want that... we've already got Boozer on the books who would be expiring at that time but even better for us since we could amnesty him if needed, unlike Asik.

[D_GoLow]

If it came down to keeping Omer or Taj, let Houston have OA

[Jimako10]

If the Bulls are honest with themselves, there's almost no chance the Bulls win a title next year with their best and only superstar player re-learning how to play (from the "trusting his body" standpoint). Omer would help without a doubt but he won't be the difference between winning a title and not, again, knowing that Rose won't be 100%.

The next season, we face the same thing with Taj. Assuming the Bulls do their normal "let the market set the value" strategy, Taj will get a really nice offer. We'll almost certainly have to let him walk with Asik's deal ballooning to $15 mil the next year and with Boozer/Noah already on the books. Assume Rose comes back 100% and we've basically still got the same team we have now minus Taj. Do we win a title? Probably not.

Might as well get a bit leaner in the meantime and maintain some flexibility for the future. Having Asik's $15 mil expiring contract is basically only good if you're going to trade it for a larger, long term deal. If we really want that... we've already got Boozer on the books who would be expiring at that time but even better for us since we could amnesty him if needed, unlike Asik.

The difference is that no one would want Boozer on their team, he'd get traded for a team looking for future cap relief, so he's a really good comparison to the Maggette deal. With Asik, IMO teams will want him to be a core piece of the team going ahead, and that could bring along a better deal than what CHA got.

[cubd8]

If the Bulls are honest with themselves, there's almost no chance the Bulls win a title next year with their best and only superstar player re-learning how to play (from the "trusting his body" standpoint). Omer would help without a doubt but he won't be the difference between winning a title and not, again, knowing that Rose won't be 100%.

The next season, we face the same thing with Taj. Assuming the Bulls do their normal "let the market set the value" strategy, Taj will get a really nice offer. We'll almost certainly have to let him walk with Asik's deal ballooning to $15 mil the next year and with Boozer/Noah already on the books. Assume Rose comes back 100% and we've basically still got the same team we have now minus Taj. Do we win a title? Probably not.

Might as well get a bit leaner in the meantime and maintain some flexibility for the future. Having Asik's $15 mil expiring contract is basically only good if you're going to trade it for a larger, long term deal. If we really want that... we've already got Boozer on the books who would be expiring at that time but even better for us since we could amnesty him if needed, unlike Asik.

Good way to look at it for Asik. If you consider next season to be a wash, his deal for meaningful games is then 2 years for about 19 million. Is that worth it?

[punkmodafunk]

I rather have Taj over Asik.

I'd let him walk and seek a cheap veteran solution...

[cubd8]

I rather have Taj over Asik.

I'd let him walk and seek a cheap veteran solution...

So would I. If Asik's deal has any consequence on Taj staying in Chicago, I think the decision is easy. I also don't know, even for a year or two, how they could justify having so much money tied into that front court.

[AAU Teammate]

Good way to look at it for Asik. If you consider next season to be a wash, his deal for meaningful games is then 2 years for about 19 million. Is that worth it?

If next year is a wash, then why field a team? Anything on the payroll will be a pointless expenditure, under that logic.