Asik Discussion. Pg 50 Sheridan: Bulls will match

[League Circles]

I'm gonna lose it if I hear any more talk about flexibility. The reality is that the Bulls best way to improve is to trade some of what they have a surplus in (big men) for what they lack (a SG). Boozer is aging so we can't count on him long term. Noah is good, so that means we need one of Taj or Omer long term likely, leaving only one to trade. If the Bulls let Omer walk, this team is royally effed unless and until either Mirotic or the Bobcats pick pans out well. We're on the verge of having almost no trade assets. Noah and Boozer are good, but a huge part of our rebounding and defensive advantage will be gone if they are backed up by a couple of scrubs instead of Taj and Omer. If we keep Taj, then we're looking at RIP Hamilton for two more years as the starting SG, followed by some combination of MMLE guys or the Bobcats pick.

[MrSparkle]

I rescind my take again.

I think Bulls play hard ball with Morey and try to get a protected 1st pick and TPE out of him in a S&T.

I don't expect Bulls to let him walk though. That would be too painful for GarPax to fathom. They really value Asik.

I don't feel like Lee will be added, unless Rip is dumped somehow.

[DanTown8587]

I rescind my take again.

I think Bulls play hard ball with Morey and try to get a protected 1st pick and TPE out of him in a S&T.

I don't expect Bulls to let him walk though. That would be too painful for GarPax to fathom. They really value Asik.

I don't feel like Lee will be added, unless Rip is dumped somehow.

You can't trade a player who has signed an offer sheet to the team who signs him, you can solely match it or not match.

[kyrv]

I rescind my take again.

I think Bulls play hard ball with Morey and try to get a protected 1st pick and TPE out of him in a S&T.

I don't expect Bulls to let him walk though. That would be too painful for GarPax to fathom. They really value Asik.

I don't feel like Lee will be added, unless Rip is dumped somehow.

You can't trade a player who has signed an offer sheet to the team who signs him, you can solely match it or not match.

The Bulls I thought also could only sign him for like 20 million, so why would Asik take a huge pay cut just to do a sign and trade?

[DanTown8587]

I rescind my take again.

I think Bulls play hard ball with Morey and try to get a protected 1st pick and TPE out of him in a S&T.

I don't expect Bulls to let him walk though. That would be too painful for GarPax to fathom. They really value Asik.

I don't feel like Lee will be added, unless Rip is dumped somehow.

You can't trade a player who has signed an offer sheet to the team who signs him, you can solely match it or not match.

The Bulls I thought also could only sign him for like 20 million, so why would Asik take a huge pay cut just to do a sign and trade?

The Bulls could only sign and trade Omer for what they could actually sign him, which is something like 4/26. Omer has an offer for 3/25 from Houston, of course he takes that deal. But still, if he signs an offer with Houston, there's zero the Bulls can then trade Omer for.

[kyrv]

The Bulls could only sign and trade Omer for what they could actually sign him, which is something like 4/26. Omer has an offer for 3/25 from Houston, of course he takes that deal. But still, if he signs an offer with Houston, there's zero the Bulls can then trade Omer for.

Thanks - though it could be agreed to in separate deals right, something like:

1) Bulls agree to not match for Asik

2) Houston signs Lee and trades him to the Bulls for rights to that guy whose name starts with V, or a second rounder.

[DanTown8587]

The Bulls could only sign and trade Omer for what they could actually sign him, which is something like 4/26. Omer has an offer for 3/25 from Houston, of course he takes that deal. But still, if he signs an offer with Houston, there's zero the Bulls can then trade Omer for.

Thanks - though it could be agreed to in separate deals right, something like:

1) Bulls agree to not match for Asik

2) Houston signs Lee and trades him to the Bulls for rights to that guy whose name starts with V, or a second rounder.

No, the Bulls cannot get compensation for not matching Omer. Of course the Bulls could decline Omer then do a S&T but there can be no official agreement by the Bulls to do that. It would be interesting to see if the league allows that to happen. And of course, the Bulls would have to send back the non-guaranteed contracts (Brewer, Watson, Korver) to make a Lee S&T Legal.

[kyrv]

The Bulls could only sign and trade Omer for what they could actually sign him, which is something like 4/26. Omer has an offer for 3/25 from Houston, of course he takes that deal. But still, if he signs an offer with Houston, there's zero the Bulls can then trade Omer for.

Thanks - though it could be agreed to in separate deals right, something like:

1) Bulls agree to not match for Asik

2) Houston signs Lee and trades him to the Bulls for rights to that guy whose name starts with V, or a second rounder.

No, the Bulls cannot get compensation for not matching Omer. Of course the Bulls could decline Omer then do a S&T but there can be no official agreement by the Bulls to do that. It would be interesting to see if the league allows that to happen. And of course, the Bulls would have to send back the non-guaranteed contracts (Brewer, Watson, Korver) to make a Lee S&T Legal.

Ah okay, well that's a good rule, thanks, I wasn't aware that was in place. That's not worth risking the Joe Smith/Minny beat down, we aren't Miami/NY/LA to assume we can get away with it.

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

62% say DO NOT MATCH the offer, while 38% say we should match it.

By reading this thread, one would think that my side was in the minority.

EDIT: If we were blessed to play Miami in next season's ECF, Asik would probably not even see the floor the entire series because of Miami's personnel.

[Cliff Levingston]

The difference is that no one would want Boozer on their team, he'd get traded for a team looking for future cap relief, so he's a really good comparison to the Maggette deal. With Asik, IMO teams will want him to be a core piece of the team going ahead, and that could bring along a better deal than what CHA got.

Those who have purported the value of having Asik on a $15 mil expiring deal basically assume that he would be a great trade asset. That's not really the case. For one, Asik won't ever be worth $15 mil on any planet without a whole butt load of improvement. Second, if he is as good a player as some people think, the Bulls aren't going to be willing to trade him simply as an expiring contract: they're also going to want value for him as a player. Third, who would be willing to give up anything of real value for an overpaid player who isn't signed long-term?

The idea of having a big expiring contract to trade is that you hope to use it as part of a package that brings in a star who's disgruntled and wants out. When that happens, the team trading the star never gets full value and thus looks to dump salary and acquire low priced talent or picks. In that instance, let's say Minnesota wants some young talent and picks for Love. Maybe we've got a guy who we picked in the 2013 draft that they like a lot, along with an expiring deal and the Charlotte pick. Sure, Omer would work and add some value but he'd have to be re-signed to a long-term deal; you know the Bulls would be reluctant to give him up vs. just including Boozer in a deal since the assumption is that Omer helps you win a title, Boozer doesn't.

The fact remains that with the Bulls unwilling to go into the tax and Noah/Boozer on the books for $27 mil per season average, adding Omer for $8 mil average (and Deng for $13 mil), there's no way we can keep Taj, who is the better player. If it's between those two guys, Cliff Levingston takes Taj without thinking twice.

[cubd8]

Good way to look at it for Asik. If you consider next season to be a wash, his deal for meaningful games is then 2 years for about 19 million. Is that worth it?

If next year is a wash, then why field a team? Anything on the payroll will be a pointless expenditure, under that logic.

Contracts are guaranteed, ticket need to sell, and management believes they are close. I don't think a league would be very successful if only the top 3 or 4 teams had a player payroll, but that's just me.

Next year is a wash in terms of being able to seriously compete for a NBA Championship. They can make the playoffs, but I think it's probably not realistic to assume they will make a long run.

[AAU Teammate]

Good way to look at it for Asik. If you consider next season to be a wash, his deal for meaningful games is then 2 years for about 19 million. Is that worth it?

If next year is a wash, then why field a team? Anything on the payroll will be a pointless expenditure, under that logic.

Contracts are guaranteed, ticket need to sell, and management believes they are close. I don't think a league would be very successful if only the top 3 or 4 teams had a player payroll, but that's just me.

Next year is a wash in terms of being able to seriously compete for a NBA Championship. They can make the playoffs, but I think it's probably not realistic to assume they will make a long run.

We're not going to be Miami. No matter what we're doing, it's not going to happen. Lets breathe and accept that. Now, can an elite defense and an offense with Rose in it beat Miami in a seven game series? Sure. It's plausible. So you play the games. Indiana and Boston played the games. They're dying to play them again.

Things are so defeatist around here. I am no doctor, but if we had a GOOD team next year....and then Derrick came back for the playoffs....can you honestly tell me your pulse wouldn't start increasing its pace?

In a weak East, if you're not the Washington Wizards, then you have some life. The Bulls without Derrick are basically fighting the rest of the teams for the #3 seed or so. Why do I have to **** my pants in fear over that?


On these boards the biggest thing I see is some people here feel so insulted and embarassed that ANOTHER team is the dominant team...that someone else is mimicking the Jordan Bulls..that they don't want to accept being the 90s Pacers. But you know what, the Heat are not Jordans Bulls. They're not as good. The 90s Pacers could beat this current Heat team in a playoff series. It is a plausible outcome.

If you don't want to play in any game that is a plausible chance of winning, then you likely played NBA Jam in your youth instead of getting out on the court. Call me crazy, but I like the underdog role, and I relish the chance to do what the mid-aughts Pistons did. What last year's Mavericks did. Hey, it's not so rare after all!

[League Circles]

I agree Asik won't have positive trade value in year 3. Expirings are only worth something in exchange for longer, equally crappy contracts. Nobody actively wants an expiring contract in an of itself.

I simply think we need to match the offer, and then depending on what happens with Taj this summer, trade whichever of Noah, Taj, or Omer that results in the best Bulls team moving forward.

[MrSparkle]

I agree Asik won't have positive trade value in year 3. Expirings are only worth something in exchange for longer, equally crappy contracts. Nobody actively wants an expiring contract in an of itself.

I simply think we need to match the offer, and then depending on what happens with Taj this summer, trade whichever of Noah, Taj, or Omer that results in the best Bulls team moving forward.

Sorry that's just not true. Expiring contracts were involved in getting Melo (Curry), Pau Gasol (Kwame), Ray Allen (Wally), Chris Paul (Kaman). Picks were also involved, but Bulls have Charlotte's and their own to work with, plus some decent youth (Taj, Jimmy, Teague, Mirotic).

I see the value in keeping the cap clean and flexible in 2014, but 85% of me expects Deng to be resigned when he expires, Noah to stay, and Taj getting resigned... Its basically gonna take a lot of talent dumps to get under the cap, Chicago has repeatedly proven to not entice superstars looking for the dream life (celebrities, ocean beach houses and international hubs).

So I'm not convinced that it's a wise strategy to let Reinsdorf save some dough and lose a trade chip.

[Red Larrivee]

So I'm not convinced that it's a wise strategy to let Reinsdorf save some dough and lose a trade chip.

The Bulls aren't losing a trade chip though. The Bulls have Deng and Hinrich as expirings next year, Boozer as an expiring the year after and Noah as an expiring the year after that. All of these expirings are worth at least $12M. The last thing the Bulls lack right now is expiring contracts to trade.

I'd be shocked if the Bulls were able to get anything positive for Asik in the last year of his deal. He's massively overpaid, limited, and doesn't project to be a core piece of any team going forward. Cliff said it best, expirings are used as a part of trade packages and not the centerpiece of it. As it stands right now the Bulls don't have the cheap assets to round out a deal with Omer as an expiring.

Marquis Teague
Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson
Kirk Hinrich

These are the players that are under cheap team control right now for our team. Can you think of any team that would deal you a difference maker for Asik's expiring plus one of those players above? I can't. You mention all those deals without mentioning the cheap, high-upside players that were included in the deal.

-Eddy Curry's expiring was used along with Gallinari, Chandler, Felton, and Mozgov. The Bulls don't have any cheap assets comparable to Chandler and Gallinari.

-Chris Kaman's expiring was used with Eric Gordon. Again, the Bulls don't have any cheap assets comparable to Eric Gordon.

-Kwame Brown's expiring was used with the rights to Marc Gasol in a deal that was able to give the Grizzlies significant cap savings and draft picks. The Bulls have a comparable player to Marc Gasol's rights in Nikola Mirotic. However, Mirotic isn't coming over the season after like Gasol did and Mirotic hasn't said that he'd be interested in playing for any other team but the Bulls. It's hard to see Mirotic's rights driving a deal for a superstar.

-Wally Z's expiring was used with the #5 pick in one of the strongest drafts of the past five years. Again, the Bulls don't have any asset comparable to that right now.

There's more to a deal than just an expiring contract and the Bulls don't have it. The Bulls only hope to get a differencemaker is using a player like Noah or Deng, who can be apart of a teams core going forward and are more complete players than Asik in addition to draft picks and rookie deals, and hoping a team bites. It's going to be tough.

Either way there's nothing special about Omer's 3rd year expiring possibilities.

[transplant]

The idea is that the expiring contract itself provides value and could yield a very good return. It would go something like this:

(1) Keeping Asik for two years is better than not keeping him, because it helps maximize the Bulls chances for two postseasons of Rose's career.

(2) Then during the third year, his expiring is a valuable trade asset to help with that third postseason run, or at the very worst you just overpay him for that one year.

As for the summer before that season, I don't know the projected salary structure, but its my understanding that Deng expires and Boozer can be amnestied. Even with Asik, perhaps that still frees up enough for a big free agent acquisition. I don't know, I'll let someone better at it than me do the math on that.

If we let Deng expire, amnesty Boozer, and assume we can ship off any remaining salary we have - that would leave the big contracts of Rose, Noah, and Asik

Those three would total 12.2 + 17.8 + 14 = 44 million

Assuming a 60 million cap, that would give us 16 million to sign a FA, sign Miritoc, and possibly sign a draft pick as well as fill out the remaining 6 roster spots.

490k * 6 = 2.9 million
Miritoc = 5 million *just a guess
Draft Pick = 1 million

We would have about 7 million to sign a FA outright. We would also still have S&T possibilities with Asik or Noahs contracts.

So now we're letting Deng walk, not signing Taj, amnestying Boozer SOLELY to afford Omer's contract. That's lunacy.

I haven't read the preceding posts, but I was struck by yours. Yeah, that's lunacy.

[League Circles]

Sorry that's just not true. Expiring contracts were involved in getting Melo (Curry), Pau Gasol (Kwame), Ray Allen (Wally), Chris Paul (Kaman). Picks were also involved, but Bulls have Charlotte's and their own to work with, plus some decent youth (Taj, Jimmy, Teague, Mirotic).

The only reason the expirings are involved is because they need to be for salary matching. With the possible exception of Kaman, none of those teams wanted to pay those scrubs even the remaining money left on their deals. My point is that while expirings can sometimes help facilitate what otherwise would be an impossible deal, they only have relative, not intrinsic value. Plus Bulls could just not amnesty Boozer in that final year and have just as big of an expiring anyway.

I see the value in keeping the cap clean and flexible in 2014, but 85% of me expects Deng to be resigned when he expires, Noah to stay, and Taj getting resigned... Its basically gonna take a lot of talent dumps to get under the cap, Chicago has repeatedly proven to not entice superstars looking for the dream life (celebrities, ocean beach houses and international hubs).

Deng expires in 2014, so they can explore the market before deciding whether to resign or renounce him. Right now it's only Rose and Noah on the books that year for about 30 mil. Even if Taj gets an extension plus cap holds for other players, all they have to do is not sign deals beyond summer 2014 and then amnesty Boozer that summer, and they'll have max cap room. I'm not saying I support it, I'm just saying it's nice to have the option, and it won't require any salary dumps except maybe Omer. Of course, the idea is to win and make a trade to improve the team and never need to go into FA that year anyway.

So I'm not convinced that it's a wise strategy to let Reinsdorf save some dough and lose a trade chip.

No, it's a horrible, horrible strategy. The Bulls basically only have Taj as a real trade asset, but we kinda need 3 quality bigs, so if Omer walks, any trade creates another hole.

[League Circles]

I'd be shocked if the Bulls were able to get anything positive for Asik in the last year of his deal. He's massively overpaid, limited, and doesn't project to be a core piece of any team going forward. Cliff said it best, expirings are used as a part of trade packages and not the centerpiece of it. As it stands right now the Bulls don't have the cheap assets to round out a deal with Omer as an expiring.

Marquis Teague
Jimmy Butler
Taj Gibson
Kirk Hinrich

These are the players that are under cheap team control right now for our team. Can you think of any team that would deal you a difference maker for Asik's expiring plus one of those players above? I can't.

I will admit that if the Bulls resign Omer, it kinda forces their hand to trade him, Noah, or Taj by next summer at the latest, because yes Omer's value will go from pretty good to negative between when he can first be traded (December I think) and entering the final year in summer 2014.

But a package of, say, Taj, Omer and the Bobcats pick this year between December and the deadline could quite possibly yield an all-star caliber wing to start at SG.

I hope in gauging whether to match Omer or not, the Bulls are shopping the hell out of Taj and Noah right now, just to see what the value is.

[Red Larrivee]

I think you're overestimating the value of Taj and Omer to other teams if you think them combined will get you an all-star perimeter player. Coldfish said it a while back, but Taj and Omer have the type of value that's good, but the value that no team would trade you their star player for in a package built around them. They're more so sweeteners than centerpieces of a great deal.

[tclg]

I say we dont match and see if they want to do a sign and trade with one of their wing players