Great article about why we don't NEED a PG/Center

[Tim_Hardawayy]

Over the past two seasons when the Big Three played with two non-point guard shooters, the Heat outscored the opponent 239 to 150 in about 86 minutes on the court.

That translates to a 50-point win margin every 48 minutes.

Here are the numbers, courtesy of NBA.com's awesome stats tool, in case you were wondering.

Who should play next to the Big Three?
Lineup type Minutes Pts Opp. Pts ORtg DRtg Diff
PG + C 2,908 6,079 5,526 107.8 98.0 +9.8
PG + Wing 494 1,214 983 118.7 96.1 +22.6
C + Wing 482 1,036 920 112.4 99.8 +12.6
2 Wings 86 239 150 127.4 79.9 +47.4
Total 3,967 8,568 7,579 110.2 97.5 +12.7
Source: NBA.com data.


When we convert those numbers to a per-100-possessions basis, we find that the Heat have a 127.4 offensive rating with that alignment next to the Big Three. All other lineups next to the Big Three? 109.8. The average team? About 103.0.

So I know what you're thinking: What about defense? Funny thing, they've performed even better on that side of the ball. How many points do the Heat allow per 100 possessions when they play two wings instead of a center and a point guard?

That's 79.9 points. The league average, again, is about 103 points.

That sound you hear? Yeah, that's the collective gasp of 29 other NBA teams.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... -direction

One thing I liked about this article, while the sample size for 2 wings and the big 3 is rather small, the one with a point guard and a wing isn't (400+ minutes), and that was our 2nd best lineup both defensively and offensively. Meaning we really don't need a center (or more accurately, in today's NBA, Bosh is a center).

I can't wait for next season.

[BigDaddyPR]

Good stuff...

[KL78192020]

Aside from that, who did Bulls have in their runs? Harper and BJ at PG and Longley/Wennington at C? The Heat resemble those Bulls teams who were dominant at the wings and had a good PF.

[teamwillow]

I don't really like being results-oriented too much. Basically, you guys need a C. You can destroy the league without one, obviously, but if you added any decent big it's like 75 win type stuff.

[puppa bear]

Lineup type Minutes Pts Opp. Pts ORtg DRtg Diff
PG + C 2,908 6,079 5,526 107.8 98.0 +9.8
PG + Wing 494 1,214 983 118.7 96.1 +22.6
C + Wing 482 1,036 920 112.4 99.8 +12.6
2 Wings 86 239 150 127.4 79.9 +47.4
Total 3,967 8,568 7,579 110.2 97.5 +12.7
Source: NBA.com data.

One thing I liked about this article, while the sample size for 2 wings and the big 3 is rather small, the one with a point guard and a wing isn't (400+ minutes), and that was our 2nd best lineup both defensively and offensively. Meaning we really don't need a center (or more accurately, in today's NBA, Bosh is a center).

The sample size is more than rather small - it's minuscule! It's under 2.2%! The PG + Wing sample is much bigger, but still around 12.5%. If anything we should be excited about this one, and hopeful that the 2 Wings will work as effectively as it did at times in the playoffs. I expect that we will see larger minutes shares: 20+ & 10+ percent for PG + Wing & 2 Wings respectively, but it's likely we see a bit of regression to the mean with both (around +17 & +20-25 respectively), but this should promote a slightly higher mean +/- (around 15).

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't want people thinking that we're going to march out Bosh at C, and end up with a +25 point diff. It will be exciting though, and may be a catalyst to long-term change in the league - perhaps even the death of the traditional C ...

[bennith13]

This is the closest team to the 96 Bulls in a long time. The heat don't need a big and they don't need a traditional PG. Wade and Lebron are going to have the ball in their hands, what good is a traditional PG?

Don't need a traditional center either. Right now the Heat are a match up nightmare for that vast majority of the league. Its not like they are small, just small in the sense that Lebron is a huge wing/guard and Bosh is more skilled then most of the bigs in the league.

In hindsight I loved those 90's Bulls teams because they made others match up with them and they had big guards, super athletic wings, bigs that would do the dirty work, and taller/long wing/forward guys that could shoot and be versatile ... and that is what is so intriguing about what the heat are doing.

[bennith13]

How about this: If Bosh couldn't shoot or really dribble and his main strengths were jump hooks, rebounding, setting screens, and blocking shots... wouldn't he be a "traditional" center? But because he can step out and face up and isn't all back to the basket on offense and he can do more then just guard the post or clog the lane people think of him as a "forward".

[Carlos4Heat]

The only team in the NBA,whose "Bigs" make me fret a little,is the L.A. Lakers.If the Heat were to meet them in the Finals,I would be wary of a motivated tandem of Bynum and Gasol.

[bennith13]

Gasol has to be reminded that he is a big because he just wants to float around the free throw line and short corner areas. You said it right there about Bynum... He can't stay motivated consistently.

Besides when the Heats wings are pressuring the aging and mostly un-athletic wings and guards on the Lakers its going to be hard to get the ball into the post.

How can the Lakers guard The Heat?

[narmerguy]

Gasol has to be reminded that he is a big because he just wants to float around the free throw line and short corner areas. You said it right there about Bynum... He can't stay motivated consistently.

Besides when the Heats wings are pressuring the aging and mostly un-athletic wings and guards on the Lakers its going to be hard to get the ball into the post.

How can the Lakers guard The Heat?

This will be the bigger issue. Is Gasol going to guard Lebron at the 4? That'd be awesome. Bynum pulled out by Bosh? Wade (assuming healthy) vs Kobe? With no rim protection? I'm cool with that.

Lakers would certainly present a formidable opponent, but they gotta get past OKC first. OKC has bigs that can guard other bigs, wings that can score, and probably the best scorer in the league. It's not like OKC is going to get worse next year. As hard as I'm finding this to say, people are sleeping on OKC just because they lost to a superior Miami team--OKC still took out all the beasts in the west on their way to the title.

[GreenHat]

As you mentioned the sample size is minuscule.

I would also add that the stats are biased precisely because we do NOT have a good center. Think about it, if center is our weak point and wings are our deepest part then us playing better with extra wings just means we play better with our extra wings, not that we don't need a center.

This shows our big three play better without OUR centers. That could be because of OUR centers and not because of the position in general.

[diablerouge]

As you mentioned the sample size is minuscule.

I would also add that the stats are biased precisely because we do NOT have a good center. Think about it, if center is our weak point and wings are our deepest part then us playing better with extra wings just means we play better with our extra wings, not that we don't need a center.

This shows our big three play better without OUR centers. That could be because of OUR centers and not because of the position in general.

thats kind of he point the article is making. yes, if we had dwight, andrew or even roy hibbert, we would play them. but we don't and we will probably never have one of those guys in the big 3 era. forcefeeding minutes to guys like joel, dampier, ilgauskas or even marcus camby doesn't make the team better. bosh at the 5 is a better option than all the other realistic options available.

[FlashFlare]

Was listening to the Dan LeBatard show on 790 the ticket earlier and he basically said while this stat is great and all, the sample size is too small. And I think it was pretty obvious how much better offensively we were without our centers seeing as our centers aren't really offensive threats and don't really open the court for our attackers like Mike Miller, Shane Battier did.

I do expect the lineup of

Wade
Allen
LeBron
Lewis/Battier
Bosh

or even

Chalmers
Allen
Wade
LeBron
Bosh

to be offensively explosive and such a tough matchup for opponents.

[Wades Team]

We are better on offense without a center, but the defense is a bit misleading. We maybe better defensively, but it takes a lot out of players sprinting to every rotation.And we have seen when our players get tired, because when they are they give up uncontested 3 pt shots, which we did a lot against very young teams. I believe we still need a good strong defensive center, but we have proven we can without one. A good solid defensive center is something we really want, but not necessarily need.

[ndnow]

The way I've always seen it, is that Lebron and Wade need a lane to the hoop to be effective. Sticking a big man in the middle who can't stretch the floor only adds another defender to cut off drives. I can't wait to see the frontcourt of shard and bosh with wade or james on the court.

[lukekarts]

I guess the better way of putting this is: if you have the best bunch of players on the court, you should be making the opposition defence think about defending you, more than you're thinking about how to defend them.

Mismatches work both ways, so if we can constantly put better players on the floor we should be ok. Sure, we might not be able to guard Dwight effectively, but who is Dwight going to guard effectively when we put Bosh/LeBron out as our front line?

[DefenseWins]

86 minutes?

That's it?

I mean it's a good first impression, but I've love to know who the teams were. Atleast the notable ones. We could have done this against the Bobcats or something and it'd look good.

[truthiness]

Aside from that, who did Bulls have in their runs? Harper and BJ at PG and Longley/Wennington at C? The Heat resemble those Bulls teams who were dominant at the wings and had a good PF.

It's not a coincidence.
The Bulls were the model for this team.

Let's not forget how in 2009 IIRC, when the Cavs played in Miami, Riley had Jordan and Pippen in attendance, a "subtle" hint at the level of greatness Lebron and Wade could get to if they played together.

[mopper8]

I guess the better way of putting this is: if you have the best bunch of players on the court, you should be making the opposition defence think about defending you, more than you're thinking about how to defend them.

Mismatches work both ways, so if we can constantly put better players on the floor we should be ok. Sure, we might not be able to guard Dwight effectively, but who is Dwight going to guard effectively when we put Bosh/LeBron out as our front line?

There's also the fact that you can at least partially make up for a lack of size on defense with great rotations and positional defense, fronting, doubling, etc.

But, as much as people refuse to acknowledge it on this board, its very difficult to make up for lack of talent on offense. That's not to say that Miami is ever without talent on the floor when the entire Big 3 is playing, because obviously that's a lot of talent, but simply that "running a great" play is not going to close the gap between the offensive efficiency of Udonis Haslem compared to the offensive efficiency of James Jones. UDs screens and offensive rebounds only make up so much ground on James Jones' spacing effects, especially when Jones is being guarded by a 4.

Again, I do think we should have a legit 7 footer with some heft on our roster, just that, I think it was rightly not our top priority given who was available at our price.

[RexBoyWonder]

Excellent Thread guys.

After all that's been said, one thing that comes to mind is our draft pick - Justin Hamilton.
On draft night, most of us were left scratching our heads. but soon after it strated to make alot of sense.

Riley Saw how much better we are when the big 3 play with shooters, players that can score and spread the floor. with that in mind, He also knew that while playing without a Center (AKA Bosh at Center) is a good part time option - it won't be ideal against every match-up, and it could cause unnecessary wear and tear to our key guys if overused.

That's where Justin enters the picturs.

If there's anything we know about him, it's that he can really shoot the ball. his shot just looks excellent. We also know he's a legit big guy, with size and bulk. and the coaching staff said that he's got a great motor, he plays hard.
Basically, if all goes well (it's far from being a sure thing, but i choose to be optimistic about him) - Justin Hamilton, with some hard work and a little luck, could the combination of those 2 needs Riley identified - a shooter that can spread the floor while in the same time provide the bulk and physicality load that we'd like to spare from the big 3.