US Open 2012

[va-mos]

Who wins 2 slams in 2012?

[Marmoset]

None of the above.

My heart says Federer. But I am going to be bold and predict we will have a non-big-3 slam winner at the U.S. Open. I think things are aligning that way, although Federer could win again. You have the Olympics and the crazy schedule, Djokovic and Nadal having dropped their level just a bit. Federer looking great, but can he sustain it?

It's a gut feeling. I would love for it to be Tsonga. But it would be even greater if it was someone completely unexpected.

And really, betting on who will win a slam for the last 6-7 years consists of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, or the rest of the field.

[va-mos]

Djokovic definitely dropped his level. McEnroe has a theory on this. He says Djokovic only plays great when his girlfriend is emotionally involved and is yelling and screaming from the stands. Djokovic's girlfriend failed to do this at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Djokovic looked flat at both events, and lost. I agree with McEroe's theory because I understand that Djokovic wins via pure emotion and desperation. If he doesn't get in the zone mentally, he's a different player. There is a question of which comes first the chicken or the egg. Is the girlfriend only excited when Djokovic is, or is Djokovic only excited when the girlfriend is?

Nadal didn't drop a level, just that he was outplayed by Rosol. Nadal struggles to adjust to grass until week 2 of Wimbledon each year. So what we just saw was Nadal's usual grass level for week one at Wimbledon (and Nadal served the lights out vs Rosol, 19 aces and up to 130mph, so in that regard Nadal was actually better than usual). In 2010, Nadal won Wimbledon but was down 2 sets to 1 to both Haase and Petzschner. I guarantee Nadal would have lost to Rosol in 2010 too. Rosol played far better than Haase and Petzchner.

I hope we get a Nadal-Federer US Open final. Federer had 2 matchpoints vs Djokovic in the 2010 US Open semis, and Federer also had 2 matchpoints vs Djokovic in the 2011 US Open semis.

[G R E Y]

Djokovic definitely dropped his level. McEnroe has a theory on this. He says Djokovic only plays great when his girlfriend is emotionally involved and is yelling and screaming from the stands. Djokovic's girlfriend failed to do this at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Djokovic looked flat at both events, and lost. I agree with McEroe's theory because I understand that Djokovic wins via pure emotion and desperation. If he doesn't get in the zone mentally, he's a different player. There is a question of which comes first the chicken or the egg. Is the girlfriend only excited when Djokovic is, or is Djokovic only excited when the girlfriend is?

Nadal didn't drop a level, just that he was outplayed by Rosol. Nadal struggles to adjust to grass until week 2 of Wimbledon each year. So what we just saw was Nadal's usual grass level for week one at Wimbledon (and Nadal served the lights out vs Rosol, 19 aces and up to 130mph, so in that regard Nadal was actually better than usual). In 2010, Nadal won Wimbledon but was down 2 sets to 1 to both Haase and Petzschner. I guarantee Nadal would have lost to Rosol in 2010 too. Rosol played far better than Haase and Petzchner.

I hope we get a Nadal-Federer US Open final. Federer had 2 matchpoints vs Djokovic in the 2010 US Open semis, and Federer also had 2 matchpoints vs Djokovic in the 2011 US Open semis.

Imagine if they break up?! *gasp* his career will be over!
You don't seriously believe that, do you? A professional athlete who trains physically and mentally to be in peak condition is undone in two majors because...his girlfriend doesn't cheer??! That's taking away credit from Novak for the wins and his opponents for the defeats.

[Doctor MJ]

None of the above.

My heart says Federer. But I am going to be bold and predict we will have a non-big-3 slam winner at the U.S. Open. I think things are aligning that way, although Federer could win again. You have the Olympics and the crazy schedule, Djokovic and Nadal having dropped their level just a bit. Federer looking great, but can he sustain it?

It's a gut feeling. I would love for it to be Tsonga. But it would be even greater if it was someone completely unexpected.

And really, betting on who will win a slam for the last 6-7 years consists of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, or the rest of the field.

I have to look at Djokovic as the favorite. Quite clearly, there's no one else capable of playing as good as he was playing last year, he just got a wake up call, and he's back on hard court.

With that said, the more I think about it, the more I feel like Federer has been the best player on the tour the past 6 months, and arguably even longer than that, and he's almost as good as the US Open as he is at Wimbledon. He's definitely #2.

Rafa's #3. He hasn't won a hard court tournament in more than a year (since he's only been winning on clay), he has a losing record against both of the other two bigs on hard court in the last year and a half, and now that he's the #3 in the world again, he's likely to have to beat both of the other two to win this tournament. Crazy to count him out of course, but a win here would be big in part because it should not be expected of him.

As far as odds are concerned, I'll put it like this: Better than 50% odds the #1 favorite (Nola) doesn't win, but EASILY majority odds that one of the big 3 do it.

I feel obligated to put Murray next, because he deserves that 4th spot and we should never count him out.

Tsonga seems to be establishing himself more and more as the most likely to get to the semis other than the big 4, and he's got talent so y'never know.

I continue with my crush on Del Potro. This tournament marks 3 years from his 2009 US Open where he seemed poised to take over the entire sport. He's gotten back to the point where he's making consistent deep runs, but he just doesn't seem to be a threat for the big boys. You hate to say now or never, but if he doesn't make some serious noise in this tournament, my money is that he never becomes a real threat for #1. Maybe he can pull a Safin-like 2nd run, but unless your talent differential is Serena-licious, this gap is just too big. Drives me nuts though, it was astonishing watching him when he was on.

[va-mos]

Imagine if they break up?! *gasp* his career will be over!
You don't seriously believe that, do you? A professional athlete who trains physically and mentally to be in peak condition is undone in two majors because...his girlfriend doesn't cheer??! That's taking away credit from Novak for the wins and his opponents for the defeats.

Don't forget, Djokovic leads the tour in retirements-

7-6, 5-7, 0-2 ret. Mohammad Mamoun R32 In a Serbia F6 2003
6-4, 2-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Guillermo Coria R64 at Roland Garros 2005
W/O to Galo Blanco at Stuttgart Qualies 2005
6-4, 4-6 ret. Vs. Yuriy Schukin in Metz Qualies 2005
4-6, 4-6, ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Quarterfinals Roland Garros 2006
6-6 ret. Vs. Stan Wawrinka Finals of Umag 2006
6-3, 1-6, 1-4 ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Semifinals of Wimbledon 2007
6-4, 6-3, 4-6, ret. Vs. Nikolay Davydenko Davis Cup 1st round 2008
3-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Roger Federer Monte Carlo 2008 Semifinals
7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 1-2 ret. Vs. Andy Roddick Australian Open 2009 Quarterfinals
4-6 ret. Vs. Filip Krajinovic in Belgrade 2010 Quarterfinals
4-6, 0-3 ret. Vs. Murray in Cincy 2011 Finals
6-7, 0-3 ret. Vs, Juan Martin Del Potro in Davis Cup Semis 2011
W/O to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris 2011

From quitter to winner (but still some quits outside of the slams in 2011). I think there is something mental going on, and it may have been the arrival of his girlfriend.

[G R E Y]

Imagine if they break up?! *gasp* his career will be over!
You don't seriously believe that, do you? A professional athlete who trains physically and mentally to be in peak condition is undone in two majors because...his girlfriend doesn't cheer??! That's taking away credit from Novak for the wins and his opponents for the defeats.

Don't forget, Djokovic leads the tour in retirements-

7-6, 5-7, 0-2 ret. Mohammad Mamoun R32 In a Serbia F6 2003
6-4, 2-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Guillermo Coria R64 at Roland Garros 2005
W/O to Galo Blanco at Stuttgart Qualies 2005
6-4, 4-6 ret. Vs. Yuriy Schukin in Metz Qualies 2005
4-6, 4-6, ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Quarterfinals Roland Garros 2006
6-6 ret. Vs. Stan Wawrinka Finals of Umag 2006
6-3, 1-6, 1-4 ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Semifinals of Wimbledon 2007
6-4, 6-3, 4-6, ret. Vs. Nikolay Davydenko Davis Cup 1st round 2008
3-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Roger Federer Monte Carlo 2008 Semifinals
7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 1-2 ret. Vs. Andy Roddick Australian Open 2009 Quarterfinals
4-6 ret. Vs. Filip Krajinovic in Belgrade 2010 Quarterfinals
4-6, 0-3 ret. Vs. Murray in Cincy 2011 Finals
6-7, 0-3 ret. Vs, Juan Martin Del Potro in Davis Cup Semis 2011
W/O to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris 2011

From quitter to winner (but still some quits outside of the slams in 2011). I think there is something mental going on, and it may have been the arrival of his girlfriend.

Oh I agree his biggest strides have come between the ears, and the rest followed, and I don't even discount the impact love has in one's life. Still, I hesitate to put it all on her. He changed his diet to (I think) gluten-free which he gave a lot of credit to for being able to stay in matches longer, and the people in his box are different, too (parents out, girlfriend in). These combined with a new fitness coach along the way, plus making strides in his overall game (including a more antics-free mental approach) and you've got a player who had an amazing run. The thing is, it's so hard to keep up such a torrid pace. Everybody comes back down to earth after a while at the very top.

I'm puling for Fed because he's had an amazing run and is riding the momentum mentioned above. He seems to be a different player when he's No.1. The bracket with him Rafa and Novak will favour him with the new ranking, too.

[va-mos]

Imagine if they break up?! *gasp* his career will be over!
You don't seriously believe that, do you? A professional athlete who trains physically and mentally to be in peak condition is undone in two majors because...his girlfriend doesn't cheer??! That's taking away credit from Novak for the wins and his opponents for the defeats.

Don't forget, Djokovic leads the tour in retirements-

7-6, 5-7, 0-2 ret. Mohammad Mamoun R32 In a Serbia F6 2003
6-4, 2-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Guillermo Coria R64 at Roland Garros 2005
W/O to Galo Blanco at Stuttgart Qualies 2005
6-4, 4-6 ret. Vs. Yuriy Schukin in Metz Qualies 2005
4-6, 4-6, ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Quarterfinals Roland Garros 2006
6-6 ret. Vs. Stan Wawrinka Finals of Umag 2006
6-3, 1-6, 1-4 ret. Vs. Rafael Nadal Semifinals of Wimbledon 2007
6-4, 6-3, 4-6, ret. Vs. Nikolay Davydenko Davis Cup 1st round 2008
3-6, 2-3 ret. Vs. Roger Federer Monte Carlo 2008 Semifinals
7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 1-2 ret. Vs. Andy Roddick Australian Open 2009 Quarterfinals
4-6 ret. Vs. Filip Krajinovic in Belgrade 2010 Quarterfinals
4-6, 0-3 ret. Vs. Murray in Cincy 2011 Finals
6-7, 0-3 ret. Vs, Juan Martin Del Potro in Davis Cup Semis 2011
W/O to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris 2011

From quitter to winner (but still some quits outside of the slams in 2011). I think there is something mental going on, and it may have been the arrival of his girlfriend.

Oh I agree his biggest strides have come between the ears, and the rest followed, and I don't even discount the impact love has in one's life. Still, I hesitate to put it all on her. He changed his diet to (I think) gluten-free which he gave a lot of credit to for being able to stay in matches longer, and the people in his box are different, too (parents out, girlfriend in). These combined with a new fitness coach along the way, plus making strides in his overall game (including a more antics-free mental approach) and you've got a player who had an amazing run. The thing is, it's so hard to keep up such a torrid pace. Everybody comes back down to earth after a while at the very top.

I'm puling for Fed because he's had an amazing run and is riding the momentum mentioned above. He seems to be a different player when he's No.1. The bracket with him Rafa and Novak will favour him with the new ranking, too.

I wouldn't call it "love" (whatever that is), but just the energy she brings to his player's box. It makes his coach also react more. They all take her lead. She may as well be a guy (or an emotional coach). Players who play off emotion/adrenaline are better players when their coach/family are emotionally engaged. And the fact is, Djokovic plays a lot better when he's yelling and going crazy. When he's less emotional he simply doesn't play as well. McEnroe picked up on his (and his girlfriend's) monotone expressions in the loss to Nadal at Roland Garros and the loss to Federer at Wimbledon. I consider this a more valuable observation than the generality of 'everybody comes back to earth after a while at the very top'.

Federer actually isn't on an amazing run. He had one of his worst clay seasons, a straight sets semi-final loss at Roland Garros. The only clay event he won was Madrid (and he did this without facing Nadal/Djokovic). Then he lost to Haas at Halle, and was 2 points from losing (in 4 sets) to a frenchman at Wimbledon. It was no surprise he beat Murray in the final (and that's an understatement). I'm sure Federer will be happier now, because he's won Wimbledon. But in 2009 he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but that didn't help at the US Open.

[G R E Y]

I wouldn't call it "love" (whatever that is), but just the energy she brings to his player's box. It makes his coach also react more. They all take her lead. She may as well be a guy (or an emotional coach). Players who play off emotion/adrenaline are better players when their coach/family are emotionally engaged. And the fact is, Djokovic plays a lot better when he's yelling and going crazy. When he's less emotional he simply doesn't play as well. McEnroe picked up on his (and his girlfriend's) monotone expressions in the loss to Nadal at Roland Garros and the loss to Federer at Wimbledon. I consider this a more valuable observation than the generality of 'everybody comes back to earth after a while at the very top'.

Federer actually isn't on an amazing run. He had one of his worst clay seasons, a straight sets semi-final loss at Roland Garros. The only clay event he won was Madrid (and he did this without facing Nadal/Djokovic). Then he lost to Haas at Halle, and was 2 points from losing (in 4 sets) to a frenchman at Wimbledon. It was no surprise he beat Murray in the final (and that's an understatement). I'm sure Federer will be happier now, because he's won Wimbledon. But in 2009 he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but that didn't help at the US Open.

You're still on this 'emotional' trip as the main impetus behind Novak's success? Based on one passing 'observation' from Mac (whose insights I respect, but that was hardly a complete analysis of Novak's game). You're also choosing to ignore all the other factors that impacted Novak's run.

And yes, Fed's run is amazing. You use his being taken to the brink by the Frenchman as a sign of weakness; I use his coming back to win as a sign of strength. And he beat Novak to get to the finals. Fed had one of the worst clay seasons? Ok. But what did he do to get his No. 1 ranking back? You're once again being selective with the facts in supporting your position but they skew the overall picture.

[va-mos]

I wouldn't call it "love" (whatever that is), but just the energy she brings to his player's box. It makes his coach also react more. They all take her lead. She may as well be a guy (or an emotional coach). Players who play off emotion/adrenaline are better players when their coach/family are emotionally engaged. And the fact is, Djokovic plays a lot better when he's yelling and going crazy. When he's less emotional he simply doesn't play as well. McEnroe picked up on his (and his girlfriend's) monotone expressions in the loss to Nadal at Roland Garros and the loss to Federer at Wimbledon. I consider this a more valuable observation than the generality of 'everybody comes back to earth after a while at the very top'.

Federer actually isn't on an amazing run. He had one of his worst clay seasons, a straight sets semi-final loss at Roland Garros. The only clay event he won was Madrid (and he did this without facing Nadal/Djokovic). Then he lost to Haas at Halle, and was 2 points from losing (in 4 sets) to a frenchman at Wimbledon. It was no surprise he beat Murray in the final (and that's an understatement). I'm sure Federer will be happier now, because he's won Wimbledon. But in 2009 he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but that didn't help at the US Open.

You're still on this 'emotional' trip as the main impetus behind Novak's success? Based on one passing 'observation' from Mac (whose insights I respect, but that was hardly a complete analysis of Novak's game). You're also choosing to ignore all the other factors that impacted Novak's run.

And yes, Fed's run is amazing. You use his being taken to the brink by the Frenchman as a sign of weakness; I use his coming back to win as a sign of strength. And he beat Novak to get to the finals. Fed had one of the worst clay seasons? Ok. But what did he do to get his No. 1 ranking back? You're once again being selective with the facts in supporting your position but they skew the overall picture.

The "other factors" are still present. He didn't stop working on his fitness in 2012. And he didn't stop eating correctly in 2012 (unless you can prove otherwise). So I "ignore" them because they aren't valid points. I saw this before McEnroe did, but of course no tennis fan's opinion holds any weight, and that is why I mentioned that McEnroe saw it too. Most players aren't reliant on their family/friends/coach during matches. But its obvious Djokovic is. He keeps looking in their direction and gesturing toward them when he's down. If they don't react, then you think that makes no difference? It would make no difference to Nadal or Federer, they are completely different mentally. Nadal is all about routines. While Federer is all about instinct.

So are you saying beating a french player (and not a very good one I might add, Benneteau currently ranked 32) at Wimbledon is supposed to represent some great mental barrier crossed? I think you should be questioning the french player's mental state. He was a sitting duck from the moment he won the 2nd set. He asked for Federer to sign his t-shirt after the match. Federer has a reputation for coming back from big deficits. It's nothing new. In 2009 at the French Open, after Nadal had been eliminated in Round 4, Haas won the first 2 sets over Federer and then Federer facing the surreal pressure of his only shot at winning Roland Garros, came back and won. Then at the semi-final stage the same thing happened - Del Potro won the first 2 sets, and Federer came back to win, again with the pressure of knowing this was his only chance of winning Roland Garros.

What did he do to get back the number one ranking? He won 3 straight indoor events at the end of last year. That's the facts, and that is why he will again need to dominate the indoor season this year after the US Open or he will slip to 3 or 4. Meanwhile Djokovic and Nadal are defending nothing after the US Open and will move up just by reaching SFs. Murray too has plenty to gain. But, Federer is the Lance Armstrong of tennis, stamina is off the charts every year, so he could well win 3 straight events after the US Open once again. Nobody finishes the year better.

[G R E Y]

It's kind of hard to discuss something with someone who is so reductive. (And I never said he stopped eating correctly. The point was that those were all factors in his reaching an unbelievable level. But then you countered with he lost the level because his GF didn't cheer enough...good grief...). It's frankly absurd to think that Novak's sole descent is from his box not reacting. You don't give Fed the credit he deserves for reaching No. 1 again, or Novak or Rafa for having done the same before for that matter.

[va-mos]

It's kind of hard to discuss something with someone who is so reductive. (And I never said he stopped eating correctly. The point was that those were all factors in his reaching an unbelievable level. But then you countered with he lost the level because his GF didn't cheer enough...good grief...). It's frankly absurd to think that Novak's sole descent is from his box not reacting. You don't give Fed the credit he deserves for reaching No. 1 again, or Novak or Rafa for having done the same before for that matter.

I see your problem now. You think I'm trying to say Nadal wouldn't have won Roland Garros 2012 if Djokovic had been more emotionally invested. And you think I'm saying Federer wouldn't have won Wimbledon 2012 if Djokovic had been more emotionally invested. I wouldn't even begin to predict the outcome of these matches. All I'm saying is Djokovic wasn't at his full capacity in either of those matches, and the reason was emotional (clearly, if you saw his on-court demeanor in either of those matches), not physical (his actual movement didn't appear hampered in any way). And his on-court demeanor has always been linked with that of his support box. He is one of those players, constantly looking up at his box and feeding off them. He is not as self-motivated as Nadal and Federer.

That doesn't mean Djokovic would have won Roland Garros. He may have stretched it to a 5th set however, with his usual gusto. And he may have stretched Federer to a 5th set too. I'm not saying either result would have been different. Impossible to simulate that specifically. Being a Nadal fan, I'm grateful we didn't have to find out. If Djokovic had won either of those matches, he would have 2 slams for the year (if he went on to beat Murray in the Wimbledon final). Instead, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer have one slam each, so Nadal has the opportunity to win Player of the Year for the 3rd time (2008, 2010) by winning the US Open.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm puling for Fed because he's had an amazing run and is riding the momentum mentioned above. He seems to be a different player when he's No.1. The bracket with him Rafa and Novak will favour him with the new ranking, too.

Well, that's still only 50/50 shot though. It's interesting, because if we were to presume that Fed's truly only the 3rd best player in the world, how long he stays at #1 or in the Top 2 may vary a great deal based on luck. If Fed came be the one who only gets to the final without facing the other two for the next majors, he actually has a good chance to keep extending his ranking lead, but it's also possible luck will go the other way and have draws as bad as what he was guaranteed from the 3 spot.

[Doctor MJ]

Federer actually isn't on an amazing run. He had one of his worst clay seasons, a straight sets semi-final loss at Roland Garros. The only clay event he won was Madrid (and he did this without facing Nadal/Djokovic). Then he lost to Haas at Halle, and was 2 points from losing (in 4 sets) to a frenchman at Wimbledon. It was no surprise he beat Murray in the final (and that's an understatement). I'm sure Federer will be happier now, because he's won Wimbledon. But in 2009 he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but that didn't help at the US Open.

I like how it's important to you to note Federer doing worse than average on clay, but you never seem to notice that a bad Federer clay court season is still better than a typical court season for Nadal on anything but clay.

Truthfully, I wouldn't call Federer's run an amazing one by current #1 in the world standards, but it is amazing considering where he was 1-2 years ago, and considering how old he is. And as I mentioned, any analysis of the past year of play of the Big 3 shows Federer winning more matches, more tournaments, and winning on all surfaces while Djokovic and Nadal each only win on their best surface.

Also, "didn't help in 2009 at the US". He did just fine at the US, he just faced one hell of a talent in Del Potro. It's by far the most disappointing thing in the men's game right now that Del Potro never regained form. Quite frankly, I don't know if Rafa would have had that #1 in the world run if not for Del Potro's injury issues.

[va-mos]

Federer actually isn't on an amazing run. He had one of his worst clay seasons, a straight sets semi-final loss at Roland Garros. The only clay event he won was Madrid (and he did this without facing Nadal/Djokovic). Then he lost to Haas at Halle, and was 2 points from losing (in 4 sets) to a frenchman at Wimbledon. It was no surprise he beat Murray in the final (and that's an understatement). I'm sure Federer will be happier now, because he's won Wimbledon. But in 2009 he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but that didn't help at the US Open.

I like how it's important to you to note Federer doing worse than average on clay, but you never seem to notice that a bad Federer clay court season is still better than a typical court season for Nadal on anything but clay.

Truthfully, I wouldn't call Federer's run an amazing one by current #1 in the world standards, but it is amazing considering where he was 1-2 years ago, and considering how old he is. And as I mentioned, any analysis of the past year of play of the Big 3 shows Federer winning more matches, more tournaments, and winning on all surfaces while Djokovic and Nadal each only win on their best surface.

Also, "didn't help in 2009 at the US". He did just fine at the US, he just faced one hell of a talent in Del Potro. It's by far the most disappointing thing in the men's game right now that Del Potro never regained form. Quite frankly, I don't know if Rafa would have had that #1 in the world run if not for Del Potro's injury issues.

Don't be surprised by Federer's success. He has plenty of elite years left. Andre Agassi was ranked number one at 33 and a half years, and winning Australian Opens. And Agassi was far more injury prone than Federer.

I don't know if you missed that 2009 us open final or what, but Federer was extremely error-prone and many accused him of complacency in that match. He really let Del Potro back in. And Del Potro's semi-final win over Nadal had just as much to do with Nadal's torn stomach muscle (and we all knew about that injury several weeks earlier when it was initially strained in the Canada Masters). It got worse every week until torn, and Nadal was serving slower than any stage of his career in that semi (from memory he was serving around 100mph on 1st serves).

http://www.tennis.com/articles/template ... &zoneid=25

All that was left was the U.S. Open. After complaining of fatigue in 2008, coming off his gold medal from the Beijing Olympics, then dealing with bad knees and a torn abdominal muscle in 2009, he set out to make this trip to Flushing Meadows different.

Del Potro is hard enough to play against without handing him easy swings. Oh, which number #1 run are you talking about? Nadal finished the year number one in 2008 and 2010 (and the early part of 2009) and held the number one ranking for a combined 102 weeks. Del Potro was never consistent enough, even at his absolute best. Del Potro has never won a Masters title, and you can't be number one without winning those. Nadal has won an all-time record 21 of them, and about 3 per year.

Anyway, this is my final post in this thread on things irrelevant to the 2012 US Open.

[Doctor MJ]

Of course I'm talking about Rafa's 2010 run. Clearly Del Potro hitting his prime in 2009 has nothing to do with Rafa in 2008.

Re: Del Potro not consistent enough. Well, he had a major injury soon after his big tourney, so what you say is both true and not very meaningful. I'll admit that there's too much we don't know about him for me to say he would have been #1 if he'd stayed healthy, but what we saw was astonishing.

Re: Agassi. Don't get hung up on actual rankings across era. In the time between Sampras and Federer at #1, we never had anyone who'd have ranked higher than 5th right now. For all Agassi's success in his 30s, he only made 5 major semis in that time despite historically weak competition. Federer will likely break that record by the time he's played his 6th or 7th major of his 30s despite all-time great competition. There's really no precedence for this other than the very beginning of the Open era.

Re: Excuses for Rafa. I get that Rafa's body breaks down a lot, but he also has a tendency to occasionally just look over matched on hard court when facing particularly powerful opponents. Del Potro has a build that in 2009 just looked like straight kryptonite for Rafa. Rafa's top spin just went right into the taller Del Potro's wheel house setting him up to tee off again and again.

As I say this, I'm actually saying it with sympathy to Rafa. We know tennis is influenced by matchups. When I saw the shots Del Potro was hitting against Rafa, I thought "Nobody will be able to beat this guy the ball sets up like this for him." Not all players hit shots that do set up like that, and that Rafa's do isn't a bad thing. Del Potro just has an unusual body. It's possible Rafa would have, or even did, figure Del Potro out, but watching that match in 2009, there was nothing fluky about what was happening.

[G R E Y]

I'm puling for Fed because he's had an amazing run and is riding the momentum mentioned above. He seems to be a different player when he's No.1. The bracket with him Rafa and Novak will favour him with the new ranking, too.

Well, that's still only 50/50 shot though. It's interesting, because if we were to presume that Fed's truly only the 3rd best player in the world, how long he stays at #1 or in the Top 2 may vary a great deal based on luck. If Fed came be the one who only gets to the final without facing the other two for the next majors, he actually has a good chance to keep extending his ranking lead, but it's also possible luck will go the other way and have draws as bad as what he was guaranteed from the 3 spot.

Yes, that's all true. I'm a bit of a homer when it comes to Fed. I want him to keep winning so much that I look at his position favourably, when in fact it could go either way. Still, not many gave him a shot to reach No. 1 again. And even though staying there is harder (Novak is only 75 points behind him) it must be a huge boost for him mentally.

Part of that luck (and his tremendous success throughout his career) is staying healthy. His game/playing style in part has allowed him to stay so injury free as opposed to, say, Rafa's, which is so strenuous particularly on the weakest joints, knees. He's lasted way longer than I thought he would, but he's seeing the effects of such an aggressive style more and more. Any word on how long Rafa will be out?

[Doctor MJ]

Yes, that's all true. I'm a bit of a homer when it comes to Fed. I want him to keep winning so much that I look at his position favourably, when in fact it could go either way. Still, not many gave him a shot to reach No. 1 again. And even though staying there is harder (Novak is only 75 points behind him) it must be a huge boost for him mentally.

Part of that luck (and his tremendous success throughout his career) is staying healthy. His game/playing style in part has allowed him to stay so injury free as opposed to, say, Rafa's, which is so strenuous particularly on the weakest joints, knees. He's lasted way longer than I thought he would, but he's seeing the effects of such an aggressive style more and more. Any word on how long Rafa will be out?

I'll raise my hand and admit I never thought he'd get back to #1 again. I'm still shocked, and thrilled. Things just got more exciting, and I expect Nola wakes up out of his mild slump.

[Doctor MJ]

Rafa's out of the US:

http://espn.go.com/tennis/usopen12/stor ... nee-issues

Okay, now it's time to be very concerned. Poor guy.

[Yoga]

Rafa's out of the US:

http://espn.go.com/tennis/usopen12/stor ... nee-issues

Okay, now it's time to be very concerned. Poor guy.

That's sad. His style of play eventually caught up to him