ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Synciere wrote:Lin's contract would be in the top 80% if it's signed by the Rockets. If it's signed by the Knicks, that 15 million in one year totally degrades the value of that contract. Sure, it'd be an expiring, but we'd still have to take back 15 million in salary, so the tax hit would be the same.
Jeremy has no ELITE skills. He's not an elite playmaker, passer, defender, shooter, or finisher. He is a good basketball player, but the majority of your comparisons are totally arbitrary. Perkins is an ELITE post defender. Wilson Chandler is a better scorer and defender than Lin, and his contract won't cause his owner to have to pay any additional amount in the dozens of millions. Millsap, Conley, Thorton, Gortat, Varejao and Afflalo are all better basketball players at this stage. You stated they do not have Conley and Millsap do not have Lin's upside. Whaaaa? I say Conley for sure has just as high an upside as Lin. He is better in almost all departments except for hype. And again, his contract contains no poison pill.
You can say that keeping Lin makes us better. You can say the Knicks' organization and Cablevision will be more valuable with Lin on board. Hell, you can even say Lin is better than Felton or Kidd or Priogini (sp?). What you can't say is that bringing Lin backs guarantees the Knicks advance in the playoffs. You can't say Lin guarantees us 10 more wins next year. And if not matching him allows us to still sign and trade or gives us additional flexibility, you can't say yet if that is in the best interest of the Knicks. Again I have to ask: Does bringing Lin back SUBSTANTIALLY improve this team as currently constructed? That means you have to include alternate solutions at his position, fit with current personnel, and ability to improve.
I think the answer to that question is clearly that he doesn't improve us much at all now. He may down the line, but by then will Dolan be paying out his a**. If the tax had no impact, why is Fields not a Knickerbocker any longer?
No, that's the whole point. It doesn't help us get any other players or improve our flexibility.
Fair enough. So then it comes down to how much he makes the franchise off the court versus how much signing him will cost. I've never been amongst those who have said signing a player is immediately double in terms of the tax because the team also has other players who contribute to going over that tax amount. However in this situation, I will, because the Knicks have now signed or traded for three point guards since the beginning of free agency. In addition, I believe Lin only makes the Knicks more money if he's consistently playing at Linsanity levels. Yao made the Rockets money because he was an elite player. I don't put Lin in that category. Lastly, even if matching the sheet doesn't hurt our flexibility, it most definitely hurts Dolan's bottom line, unless Lin is Linsanity.
What are the chances Lin comes back and plays like he did that month for an entire year. Consider how he played with the return of Amare and Melo. Consider that we have alternatives now. Consider his performances against elite competition. Consider his own skills. I think it's highly unlikely he plays on that level; still a good player, but not worthy of a tax hit that is sure to come. If you're Dolan, can you really blame him for saying: you know what, I don't want to pay that extra 40 million in 2015?
