Doug on "2014 Plan"

[GetBuLLish]

Doug put up an article this morning on the mythological "2014 plan." This really is a MUST READ article, especially for those who continue to espouse this plan. Here are some excerpts:

On what the 2014 plan is assumed to include:

In theory, the 2014 plan goes like this:
Luol Deng comes off the books
Carlos Boozer will be amnestied
Nikola Mirotic will come over from Europe

The theory goes that the Bulls will be maximum room under the cap in order to make a bunch of moves, however, it's unlikely to work out nearly so well in practice.

Derrick Rose will make about 19.2 million [most salary sites still show his salary at 17.8, but the max contract went up]. Joakim Noah will make 12.2. They'll have about five million tied up in Butler, Teague, a 2013 rookie, and a 2014 rookie, and they'll likely have to pay Mirotic at least three million to come over. That puts them at 39 million. Let's assume they keep Taj Gibson, now the salary is back up to 48-50 million.

...........They'll have less than max cap room to fill out the team.

On what an actual 2014 plan should have looked like:

Now instead of this, let's say the Bulls dumped Deng for Richard Jefferson and Harrison Barnes, a deal that was reportedly on the table. The Bulls would add Barnes and about four million in salary to this current core. All of a sudden things look a lot better. Maybe they also dumped Noah for Thomas Robinson, a deal that may have also been on the table, and they don't keep Taj Gibson and amnesty Boozer immediately.

If you were really playing for 2014 which of those situations is really better? The second one, it's not even close. The Bulls would have significantly more financial flexibility as well as young lottery talent in a strong draft class just beginning to enter its prime similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder

On what the Bulls are actually doing:

In an attempt to maximize their odds for a championship the Bulls could do a full rebuild around 2014, or they could try and maximize their talent around Rose every year. Right now, they're stuck in the middle of the street with a plan that neither maximizes their talent nor maximizes their future talent.

Full article: http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-bulls ... 2014-plan/

[BULLHITTER]

i read it and agree wholeheartedly. all that will happen in 2014 is space WILL be cleared, but: a) the new "moving goal post" will lament (and a host of fans will concur) "there's no one who'll put us over the top", b) "we need to re-address luol's deal, therefore we want to wait to see what his agent says before committing any more dollars".....and the beat will go on.

i suspect they will find a reason to not pursue love/aldrige with the veil of frugality excuse of "we just signed mirotic, we don't need another 4"...blah, blah.

as long as the FO can sell hope coupled with tickets, all is right with the world.

[boogydown]

2014 Plan = Trade Before the 2014 Plan Ever Happens

That's my 2014 Plan

We'll make a key trade in the 2013-2014 Season

[ryannik09]

I dont think the Bulls plan is to sign an of those FAs in 2014. It is to make a trade to acquire Kevin Love and or Eric Gordon who might be available.

Both of those guys just signed 4 year extenstions with an opt out after year 3, if their teams are still struggling in the summer of 2014 they may threaten to opt out in the summer of 2015 if they are not traded.

The Bulls could then work out trades with the T-Wolves and/or for those two players, involving Gibson, Teague, 2013,2014 1st rd picks maybe even Mirotic.

[SteveDobbs]

Read it. Loved it. Emailed it to Friedell.

[BuffaloBull]

2014 Plan = Trade Before the 2014 Plan Ever Happens

That's my 2014 Plan

We'll make a key trade in the 2013-2014 Season

Yup. People get worked up with a need to define a specific plan or player and it isn't about that. It's about having assets and flexibility to make a deal when one presents itself.

The Bulls thought Asik was an asset. They offered him the most money they could. But on Houston's deal, you really can't move him without some serious manuverings because he is untradable year one, poison pill year 2, and 15 mill in year 3. A four year deal would've been easier to manage because the money would have been even in years 3 and 4.

The options for getting players are a 1. straight trade 2. sign and trade 3. sign with cap space 4. draft. With the new CBA, if you go over the apron, it takes #2 off the table. Completely. The Lakers couldn't have gotten Steve Nash, next year, even with a trade exception like that had. That won't be permitted.

That's why the Bulls didn't make a move for a bad contract + assets (like the Ben Gordon deal) this offseason. Because next year you would be over the apron, and even if there was a sign and trade you wanted to do, you wouldn't be able to do it.

I'm fairly convinced the 2014 "plan" isn't about getting pure capspace. To me, it is an opportunity to have the flexibility to get that #2 guy. So when the next "Dwight Howard" situation arises, the Bulls will be able to offer a team a lot of different options. And the guy has to want to come here.

The key is to have no bad assets in 2014. And that will probably happen. Amnesty Boozer, Deng a UFA (so a roster option). In all likelihood only Rose, Noah, and Taj, on longterm deals, the rest of the team on rookie salaries or shortterm money. You'll be able to offer teams young players, draft picks, a core guy (Taj or possibly Luol in a sign and trade) and if neccessary, you should be able to make capspace by moving guys that have value. Omer at 15million has the potential to mess that up by being a negative value contract: a guy you have to give assets to move. And that's exactly what Gar said with why we didn't keep him, that the houston contract endangered getting top tier talent in the future.

The Bulls are playing a long game. They are going to build through the draft, and wait for a blockbuster deal to materialize. They aren't going to sacrifice their assets and flexibility, though, to add complementary pieces to a core that isn't complete. And I'm good with that.

[Rerisen]

We've been hammering the same basic points for a while now, and Doug remains on point, as he often is.

I laid it out like this, similarly the other day.

Again the numbers tell the story.

Going into 2010 Free Agency, Rose + Gibson + Asik cost 8.3 million.

Going into 2014 Free Agency, Rose + Gibson alone would cost 26 or 27 million. And Asik is just a talent loss.

That 18m or so difference (and minus Asik) is the money that paid all those role players and our depth.

So how are we supposed to come out as good as we did then? Even if you count Boozer's 15m as a total zero contributor, you still have less money, and less talent, even aside getting out from him.

So are we just screwed then? No, but you have basically two choices. Start acquiring picks to get talented players on cheap deals again (means trading players like Deng, Noah or Gibson), or start committing to pay well into tax like the other big boy teams in the league (L.A., Miami, OKC will be there), etc.

This was the first test year, and we chose not to pay. You might think Rose’s ACL was a worthy excuse not to, which is fine, but still does not halt the ballooning contracts we have. Then its time to start looking for some younger cheaper assets with potential.

Because expecting to beat those teams with less payroll while paying everyone you have market value, is just crazy and a downright pretty stupid plan. Unless that is you really have no great designs to go for titles, but are happy being 2nd round and out, or maybe lucking into an ECF every 5 years.

And maybe the organization is happy with that, as it is most likely the most profitable while being the least risky at the same time.

[mschmidt64]

If the Bulls could have gotten Robinson and Barnes for Deng and Noah, they should have done it. In that case they probably could have matched Asik as well.

They could have let Rose have this year off, then their own pick next year becomes very high too (and you could select Cody Zeller, Shabazz Muhammed or Nerlens Noel).

That would be a much better core going forward.

Rose
Barnes
Robinson
Zeller/Noel
Mirotic
Bobcats pick
Cap room

I'll take that over what we've got now, thanks.

[MGB8]

2014 Plan = Trade Before the 2014 Plan Ever Happens

That's my 2014 Plan

We'll make a key trade in the 2013-2014 Season

I think this is the key. We don't know what was or was not available. But we do know that we're not currently built for the 2014 (or possibly even 2013) plan.

All it takes to be ready for such a plan is to (1) not overpay Taj (Doug's example has us paying Taj 9-11M in 2014) and (2) to move Deng for less salary (or no salary) that season.

Let me add that if we can keep Deng at 8-9M / season (a hometown discount), it would be better to keep Deng than keep Taj at 7-8M per season. Taj's best role is as a 3rd big - and I do believe that he will soon be fine as a reserve center (ala Kurt Thomas, who isn't any taller, and Taj has longer arms but, as of right now, less mass). Paying over MLE for a 3rd big is a luxury. Paying much over MLE for a reserve big is nuts.

Anywho, if it's clear that Deng won't extended at a discount (and I think that's probable), then you want to move him, right now. And there are plenty of teams who should want to bring Deng on board.

Cleveland needs a starting level SF. So does Orlando, especially if they want to convince Dwight to stay. Sacramento desperately needs a veteran guy who can demonstate discipline and team play. Minnesota is so desperate at SF they are talking to AK47, who is best suited as a PF at this point in his career. New Orleans has Al-Aminu as their starting SF - completely unproven if decently talented.

There should be a market for Deng for a top-3 or so protected pick and no new salary. That allows you to go into next offseason and potentially amnesty Boozer then (if the FA picture looks good), will likely cement the Bulls in the lotto this season (more likely than not, IMO, even if Deng remains on the Bulls), and adds another first round pick to the Bulls assets in reloading around Rose and Noah.

[DuckIII]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

[Lanky Gunner]

The Bulls should really try to get after the 2013 FA class, if they're going to go the FA route (which they should seriously reconsider, because FA has been unkind to them, both in terms of not getting the best guys and overpaying the guys they do get, by quite a lot). Ideally, they'd make a trade to acquire talent, rather than pursuing it in FA, but if they go for FA, 2013 is the year, not 2014.

[BuffaloBull]

We've been hammering the same basic points for a while now, and Doug remains on point, as he often is.

I laid it out like this, similarly the other day.

Again the numbers tell the story.

Going into 2010 Free Agency, Rose + Gibson + Asik cost 8.3 million.

Going into 2014 Free Agency, Rose + Gibson alone would cost 26 or 27 million. And Asik is just a talent loss.

That 18m or so difference (and minus Asik) is the money that paid all those role players and our depth.

So how are we supposed to come out as good as we did then? Even if you count Boozer's 15m as a total zero contributor, you still have less money, and less talent, even aside getting out from him.

So are we just screwed then? No, but you have basically two choices. Start acquiring picks to get talented players on cheap deals again (means trading players like Deng, Noah or Gibson), or start committing to pay well into tax like the other big boy teams in the league (L.A., Miami, OKC will be there), etc.

This was the first test year, and we chose not to pay. You might think Rose’s ACL was a worthy excuse not to, which is fine, but still does not halt the ballooning contracts we have. Then its time to start looking for some younger cheaper assets with potential.

Because expecting to beat those teams with less payroll while paying everyone you have market value, is just crazy and a downright pretty stupid plan. Unless that is you really have no great designs to go for titles, but are happy being 2nd round and out, or maybe lucking into an ECF every 5 years.

And maybe the organization is happy with that, as it is most likely the most profitable while being the least risky at the same time.

I think they would've moved Deng for the right deal. There was a lot of smoke, anyway, around draft time. But both Sacramento and GS ended up getting guys who "fell" to them, so I doubt they would've pulled the trigger once they saw what was there. Takes two to tango on these deals, always.

I'm wary about extending Deng longterm. He's gotten hurt a lot in his career, and his peak hasn't been so high that you expect him to age the way a guy like Paul Pierce has. But he's a positive player, and a guy who is a leader and sets a tone, so I think you need to either get a young guy you love when you move him, or have a real plan in place to replace him.

I don't think the ideal plan is to go under the cap and sign guys outright. You maximize talent by trading salary for salary. BUT, if you have the flexibility to do it, for the right guy, then having it as a tactical option (i.e., if you could trade Taj to somebody and get a pick, then you would have max space) is good. It's all about getting the right guy and concentrating talent at the top. A team with an awesome top 3 and lesser role players is usually going to beat a team with a strong 5 or 6 but that is missing that top level talent. So if I have to go under the salary cap, but come back up with Kevin Love or Lamarcus Aldridge, I like that team.

Presumably, the Bulls at that point would have a slew of guys (Teague, Jimmy Butler, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, Mirotic etc) on rookie deals that are outperforming their true salary value if that was the case. And then competing from a talent standpoint is about keeping those guys when they come up for second contracts.

[Lanky Gunner]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

You're posting from your car?

[RoseTheFuture22]

2014 Plan = Trade Before the 2014 Plan Ever Happens

That's my 2014 Plan

We'll make a key trade in the 2013-2014 Season

I could not agree more, stop praying for "player x" to come here in free agency, time and time again we've tried that and end up overpaying for consolation prizes. If you want a player then you trade for them BEFORE they ever hit the market(like the Clippers, Knicks, and Nets have done).

Maybe GarPax is scared that if they trade someone will leave, but I can think of very few players that would leave a prime Derrick Rose and Chicago to go play anywhere else.

[DanTown8587]

I think people need to realize that if there is a 2014 plan, the Bulls likely will keep Mirotic and let Taj go if the value isn't there. I think the Bulls will have discussions with him and then see where those lead and if they're middling come playoff time, maybe make a move.

The 2014 plan is likely Rose, Mirotic and Noah and rookies.

I've changed my mind on Taj Gibson. He can't stay. His cap value is too high to a team that still wants scorers and won't go deep into the tax. Taj = luxury.

[coldfish]

+Doug.

The 2014 plan is basically awful. Any casual review of the situation can see that. I'll take it a step further. Are the Bulls really going to amnesty Boozer? Really?

In order for the 2014 plan to actually work, the Bulls need to start trading people now, like they did ahead of time for 2006 and 2010. As Doug noted, they aren't doing that though. They are keeping one foot in the "make the playoffs now" lane and it prevents 2014 from actually working.

In short, the 2014 plan is equivalent to the underwear gnome plan

1: Make it to 2014
2: ????
3: Championship

Hey! that's my go to line!

[Rerisen]

I think they would've moved Deng for the right deal.

I think we still might. That Deng (and potentially others) could be shopped till the deadline. If Deng shows he is healthy at some point, it will only increase his value.

While many are busy trying to rationalize how the blue light special players we got are going to equal all the talent we lost, and keep us just as competitive when Rose finally gets back, I think the Bulls may well have moved on, intending to use this year to continue to prep for future rebuilding - at least I hope so - as opposed to the other more ruthless profit goal I suggested.

But so far, we just don't know. And I think fans are not off their rocker to be skeptical, until such things happen. Because it seems we have likely already passed such chances.

[Mech Engineer]

2014 Plan = Trade Before the 2014 Plan Ever Happens

That's my 2014 Plan

We'll make a key trade in the 2013-2014 Season

Yup. People get worked up with a need to define a specific plan or player and it isn't about that. It's about having assets and flexibility to make a deal when one presents itself.

The Bulls thought Asik was an asset. They offered him the most money they could. But on Houston's deal, you really can't move him without some serious manuverings because he is untradable year one, poison pill year 2, and 15 mill in year 3. A four year deal would've been easier to manage because the money would have been even in years 3 and 4.

The options for getting players are a 1. straight trade 2. sign and trade 3. sign with cap space 4. draft. With the new CBA, if you go over the apron, it takes #2 off the table. Completely. The Lakers couldn't have gotten Steve Nash, next year, even with a trade exception like that had. That won't be permitted.

That's why the Bulls didn't make a move for a bad contract + assets (like the Ben Gordon deal) this offseason. Because next year you would be over the apron, and even if there was a sign and trade you wanted to do, you wouldn't be able to do it.

I'm fairly convinced the 2014 "plan" isn't about getting pure capspace. To me, it is an opportunity to have the flexibility to get that #2 guy. So when the next "Dwight Howard" situation arises, the Bulls will be able to offer a team a lot of different options. And the guy has to want to come here.

The key is to have no bad assets in 2014. And that will probably happen. Amnesty Boozer, Deng a UFA (so a roster option). In all likelihood only Rose, Noah, and Taj, on longterm deals, the rest of the team on rookie salaries or shortterm money. You'll be able to offer teams young players, draft picks, a core guy (Taj or possibly Luol in a sign and trade) and if neccessary, you should be able to make capspace by moving guys that have value. Omer at 15million has the potential to mess that up by being a negative value contract: a guy you have to give assets to move. And that's exactly what Gar said with why we didn't keep him, that the houston contract endangered getting top tier talent in the future.

The Bulls are playing a long game. They are going to build through the draft, and wait for a blockbuster deal to materialize. They aren't going to sacrifice their assets and flexibility, though, to add complementary pieces to a core that isn't complete. And I'm good with that.

I like your optimism and the idea. But, the problem is execution. The assets are not good enough to get that second star even when available or if it is enough....it will be a complete rebuild around Rose and that second guy. I seriously doubt Deng or Taj and picks/small contracts would get you that kind of star when they cannot get it now. It has to be Noah with picks/contracts etc..to get a Kevin Love or somebody of that talent. There goes your second best player.

When you do that, the team becomes Rose + "second star" + whatever is left. Then it will take another 2 years to rebuild at the minimum to fill other holes especially when they don't have a Center if they have traded Noah. And, on top of it those talents have to gel, might never be good enough as the other talents(Durant/Westbrook, LeBron/Bosh, new talents where Howard goes, Paul/Griffin which are forming chemistry from 12-13 season or earlier).

So, realistically the 2014 plan is basically a 2017 plan and that's really crazy for a big market when you already have a superstar who has already gone through his growing pains.

I understand the apron part and unable to do the S & T. What the Bulls should be doing is making some bold moves in this lost season of 12-13. They need to consolidate assets for a 2014 trade. Ideally, they should have amnestied Boozer now and resigned Asik and got by with Taj/another younger type PF for 12-13, 13-14. Maybe they should not have signed Hinrich to that money so as to be under the apron. What difference realistically does it make to have Hinrich or Mike James or a min Vet like CJ?
It is the almost 2 mil which could have gone to Asik.

They need to rank players on basketball talent/who will be or can be traded and pay those guys first.

[DuckIII]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

You're posting from your car?

Stoplights.

[molepharmer]

I think it's safe to say that nobody, including the FO, journalists and bloggers, etc has a 2014 plan where Luol Deng simply comes off the off the books without getting anything in return before he leaves. That is beyond stupid and even the FO on it's worst days wouldn't let that happen (hopefully).