Doug on "2014 Plan"

[MGB8]

+Doug.

The 2014 plan is basically awful. Any casual review of the situation can see that. I'll take it a step further. Are the Bulls really going to amnesty Boozer? Really?

In order for the 2014 plan to actually work, the Bulls need to start trading people now, like they did ahead of time for 2006 and 2010. As Doug noted, they aren't doing that though. They are keeping one foot in the "make the playoffs now" lane and it prevents 2014 from actually working.

In short, the 2014 plan is equivalent to the underwear gnome plan

1: Make it to 2014
2: ????
3: Championship

Hey! that's my go to line!

Cold,

I do believe that they will Amnesty Boozer. I don't think JR is quite as cheap as people make him out. I believe that the goal is to be fiscally responsible, and that amnesty of Boozer at the time, in order to make room for better, keep the fan base involved, while extending for 1 year an avoidance of extra tax payments for higher levels of tax will sell.

I also believe we will pay the tax when we have a contending team --- for that season. I believe that JR does not believe that is the case for this season, but they are still hedging somewhat.

That said, as the season unfolds, they will still have some flexibility in terms of seeing if the hedge is realistic or not. If many other eastern teams are much improved, I think they'll give up and you'll see the moves.

I don't know if that's wise, because I think now is the time to get value for Deng (assuming you talk to him and his agent and they make it clear that they won't extend right now - which they could do - for a hometown discount level amount). Taj you could wait on.

But I get what they are doing. A little too conservative for me. But, in there defense, I was A-OK with Krause moving Brand for Tyson, and taking his shot at McGrady and Hill. Even though it failed. I was less ok with the move for Jalen Rose because I didn't really like Jalen as a player, and thought they could make it work with a rotation including Brad Miller (who I did like) and the development of crazy Ron-Ron.

Of course, I thought Jamal Crawford (and Eddy Curry) would be much better than they ended up being, so...

[Ron Harper]

Bulls might still be looking to move Deng.

If Deng forgoes surgery, comes out and plays 42 minutes a night...I think teams might start calling.

[Rerisen]

Bulls might still be looking to move Deng.

If Deng forgoes surgery, comes out and plays 42 minutes a night...I think teams might start calling.

I don't think it will be that hard to sell such a move either. The only reason it would be is if the Bulls were doing as well without Derrick as last year, such that him coming back could reasonably put us in contention with the best.

And I find that near impossible. Even last year I think we overachieved without him. So to do the same this year with less talent, less room for error, not realistic.

If the Bulls are anywhere around .500 without Rose, trading Deng would not cause an uproar I think.

Plus, they can easily mute it down even more by being cautious with Rose and pushing him back to the back end of the timetable.

[sco]

I am not going to say that the Bulls FO are complete idiots for getting us in this position to begin with. The 2 drivers of our current situation (beyond Rose's injury) are:

1) Signing Boozer and paying him to be our 2nd option scorer. It was a risk that could have paid off...but didn't. It's not like there were a bunch of better options at the time. LeBron and Bosh, rightfully, pick Miami, and Joe Johnson or Amare would probably have been worse.

2) Not trading Omer. Sure we could have gotten some value there, but nobody thought that Houston would be this aggressive.

That said, I see our problem a little differently. We need a 2nd option scorer at one of the wing positions. Any scenario that has us trading Taj or Noah, only creates a new hole and doesn't really solve the problem that teams can stop the Bulls by trapping Rose high. We need a guy who can handle the ball and get his own shot off the dribble and be able to score 20ppg consistently.

[Rerisen]

That said, I see our problem a little differently. We need a 2nd option scorer at one of the wing positions. Any scenario that has us trading Taj or Noah, only creates a new hole and doesn't really solve the problem that teams can stop the Bulls by trapping Rose high. We need a guy who can handle the ball and get his own shot off the dribble and be able to score 20ppg consistently.

I think Deng+Taj+ Charlotte pick would certainly be enough value in theory for us to acquire a legit #2.

However, then you are trying to win with Boozer until Mirotic comes over. Though Boozer would only have to be a #3 in that scenario.

[Lanky Gunner]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

You're posting from your car?

Stoplights.

Seems unsafe, man. Also, do people honk at you when the light turns green and your eyes are cast down?

[BuffaloBull]

The other issue with completely bottoming out (i.e. trading Deng and Noah for rookies) is that it doesn't work because you are no longer an attractive destination. A true #2 is likely not going to want to come to the Bulls if they are not winning because they are playing a bunch of rookies. But with supporting players like Deng, Taj, and Noah, to go with Rose, that's a team where a really good scorer is going to be able to imagine the fit really easily. A guy who isn't a vapid moron like Dwight Howard is going to see that and want to join that team. A team where Noah and Deng (known quantities) have been exchanged for Barnes and Robinson is a team filled with question marks. And if one of those guys isn't the player you thought he could be (happens all the time, especially in the mid-lottery) then you've shot yourself in the foot pretty bad.

The Bulls have to serve two masters until they get that #2 guy: field a team that is as competitive as possible "so the guy will want to come here to make a dynasty" while also maintaining the financial flexibility to add him. And that means staying close to the cap line in 2014, so you can threaten a team with an outright signing then or next season if you have to.

Starting next year, megateams will not be able to take players back in sign and trade if they are above the apron. This is a really big deal. I can't stress this enough This is why Marc Cuban didn't just sign all his championship guys longterm and operate from an asset base of longterm contracts. So unless your core is completely in place (and the Bulls' is not, they need a true #2) exceeding the apron just cuts off one of the major avenues you have for getting better.

[Ron Harper]

Lets say this...Kings call and want to talk about Deng for Tyreke

Regardless of how you feel about who wins that trade...Can the Bulls make this type of trade while still going after it in 2014


Or would trading Deng at the deadline have to be a picks/expiring type of deal

[kuly1990]

i think Joe would have been better option than Boozer, but for less money offcourse!

[AAU Teammate]

I know Doug is just painting scenarios, but to all the tank people...I just really have a serious issue with turning our already very good talent (Noah/Deng) into young guys that may never be anything. Every year there are Tyrus Thomas/Hasheem Thabeet whatevers....and I don't want to trade already good talent for one of those.

Maybe I'm naive, but I'd like to move our established talent for established talent. Moves like the Bogut-Monta trade don't know people's socks off, but they are the way I envision roster upheaval happening. Make moves, but don't undercut everything you've done.

Frankly I share the article's insights that the FA mission is nebulous one at best. FAs don't want to come here. We should trade for established guys.

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

Same here man.

Cosidering I'm stopped by this train, let me quickly respond.

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

[BuffaloBull]

I like your optimism and the idea. But, the problem is execution. The assets are not good enough to get that second star even when available or if it is enough....it will be a complete rebuild around Rose and that second guy. I seriously doubt Deng or Taj and picks/small contracts would get you that kind of star when they cannot get it now. It has to be Noah with picks/contracts etc..to get a Kevin Love or somebody of that talent. There goes your second best player.

When you do that, the team becomes Rose + "second star" + whatever is left. Then it will take another 2 years to rebuild at the minimum to fill other holes especially when they don't have a Center if they have traded Noah. And, on top of it those talents have to gel, might never be good enough as the other talents(Durant/Westbrook, LeBron/Bosh, new talents where Howard goes, Paul/Griffin which are forming chemistry from 12-13 season or earlier).

So, realistically the 2014 plan is basically a 2017 plan and that's really crazy for a big market when you already have a superstar who has already gone through his growing pains.

I understand the apron part and unable to do the S & T. What the Bulls should be doing is making some bold moves in this lost season of 12-13. They need to consolidate assets for a 2014 trade. Ideally, they should have amnestied Boozer now and resigned Asik and got by with Taj/another younger type PF for 12-13, 13-14. Maybe they should not have signed Hinrich to that money so as to be under the apron. What difference realistically does it make to have Hinrich or Mike James or a min Vet like CJ?
It is the almost 2 mil which could have gone to Asik.

They need to rank players on basketball talent/who will be or can be traded and pay those guys first.

Asik's not really not movable on that deal, at all.

But it's not a 2017 plan at all.

It's about leverage. To get a main guy, you have to have an upset superstar (like Dwight) who wants to come to your team (not like Dwight) and assets to compensate the team enough to make the move.

Let's just use Kevin Love for a hypothetical. Minnesota doesn't get over the hump. Rubio tears his acl again, Pekovic turns into Andris Biedrins etc... they are treadmilling. Love wants out.

In 2014 he is on the final year of his deal. He makes it known he isn't going to resign, and he says his #1 choice is to join the Bulls to play with Rose cause he sees a championship if he does. So he says "either trade me now, or I walk to the Bulls next year."

That's a legitimate threat if Minnesota knows the Bulls can clear space for an outright signing in 2015. And they would be right there if they don't bring back Deng. All they would have to do is move a few guys who already have value (Taj, etc) and they can do it.

If the Bulls are way over the cap in 2014, Minnesota can say "screw them, they will never be able to sign you outright, don't try to leverage us." But if the possibility is legit, and you might lose Love for nothing, then you probably come to the table and deal.

Then at that point the Bulls can do Taj or possibly Deng plus any of these assets (Jimmy Butler, Teague, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, Cats pick, future picks) make a trade. And you can come out of 2014 with a core of Rose, #2 guy (Love, in this case), Noah, Deng, and Mirotic, which is a nasty, nasty core.

Now that's best case scenario. But to enact it you have to have the leverage of an outright signing.

So being flexible in 2014 sort of expands the field of "likely pickups": it allows you to be players for the 2014 guys (through sign and trade, or possibly, outright singings) AND 2015 FAs (through leverage, "hostile" acquisitions like the Chris Paul trade, or what Dwight failed to do). If you are over the apron you can't do that. You are limited to talent for talent trades.

[AirP.]

To everyone who thinks Chicago will amnesty Boozer, I really don't think it's going to happen.

What I expect to happen?

Well with the current roster... both Boozer and Hamilton will have to be featured in the offense more then they have been in the last few years. I suspect Hamilton to be moved to a contender at the trade deadline and Boozer to be moved at the deadline or in the offseason.

Chicago has options that don't include amnesty with Boozer. Chicago has no other options other then to feature Boozer and Rip on offense and with that there's a great chance both players will become desirable for contenders this upcoming season or next year(Boozer).

[Wingy]

I've always said, hit em where it counts and stop buying tickets, stop going to games and stop buying any kind of Bulls related merchandise. Most scoff at that and think it ridiculous.

We'll see how long it takes for everyone to get sick of being in middle ground hell when you're Chicago's size and with this ownership's profits. We'll see if everyone is so willing to keep feeding the pig.

The 2014 plan. What a joke. There's no free agents to sign in 2014! Who do they think they're kidding?

Sorry for being negative, but I just don't see any kind of real plan from this team other than to maximize profits.

I talked about this hope we start spending for the season after this one once Derrick is back...but really, that FA class stinks too. Our only chance is a trade and we didn't need to jettison our quality bench to be able to trade.

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

[Rerisen]

The other issue with completely bottoming out (i.e. trading Deng and Noah for rookies) is that it doesn't work because you are no longer an attractive destination.

The Bulls can't truly bottom out with a healthy D Rose. At worse you end up like the Heat, prior superteam, where Wade was carrying a bunch of scrubs to .500 and still eeking into the playoffs.

Miami did pretty much bottom out gutted their whole roster, sans Wade, prior to 2010. But because he was there, Bosh and LeBron were willing to come.

[veji1]

I must say I find Doug's article a bit "easy"... Sure the FO made choices that turned out to be mistakes (Boozer disappoints and Asik not traded), but It is fantastically easy for a beat writer to say "duh whe shoulda traded Deng for x and y and Noah for w and we would be in a much better position to sign a super duper player later"...

The so called 2014 plan is all in peoples mind. There is no "Big plan". What the FO ist trying to do is navigating the current situation (Rose out most of next year, Deng a big chunck, realistically a form of transition season) to the best they can... Should they throw everything away to rebuild in 2013 with Rose, as if they had just drafted him, with Rose + youngies and cap space and get rid of other key players in the current team that has won the regular season twice in a row (Noah, Deng, Taj)?

What do you do with Boozer ? The whole let's just amnesty the guy who cares about the money is an easy cop out...When you see what Brand gest paid from the Mavs, amnestying Boozer wouldn't bring much money because only teams under the cap can play... Say he goes to the Cats for 5 millions, that's almost the best scenario.

Now I am not defending the FO, but I can see what they are trying to do.. Weather the storm with short contracts, and try to be available for trades in the near future with assets (Noah, Deng, reasonnably extended Gibson(6 or 7 mils), Mirotic and Charlotte first). Failing trade they will do their best in FA... In the end what else can they do that isn't akin to staking everything on a lottery ticket.. Because make no mistake, the whole "let's trade everybody for unproven youngsters and rebuild around them and FAs will beg to come " scenario is just that : getting rid of known quantities and betting on unknowns, sure you can hit that 1,7, or 5 or 10 or 20% but you are taking a major gamble...

Fans want action, it is in their mindset, but still...

[Wingy]

The other issue with completely bottoming out (i.e. trading Deng and Noah for rookies) is that it doesn't work because you are no longer an attractive destination.

The Bulls can't truly bottom out with a healthy D Rose. At worse you end up like the Heat, prior superteam, where Wade was carrying a bunch of scrubs to .500 and still eeking into the playoffs.

Miami did pretty much bottom out gutted their whole roster, sans Wade, prior to 2010. But because he was there, Bosh and LeBron were willing to come.

I was going to quote this part of BBull's post to and point to the crap hole team that is NJ and Dwight creaming all over himself wanting to get to that crumby team.

[Concept Coop]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

[BULLHITTER]

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

does anybody have the specific elements of who's available, what's being asked for in trades, what is their intent regarding future draft picks, or how the player budget is allocated?

when someone DOES, then you can get someone with a plan. otherwise, someone offering their OPINION, is just subject to other non-informed fans slamming their OPINION; and since opinions are in mass supply herein, doug's is as credible as anybody else. history is most defiinitely on his side.

just because somebody doesn't co-sign managments moves or lack thereof, doesn't dismiss their valid concerns.

as such, 2014 is a sham, and JR will not PAY for a winner, IMHO.

[Rerisen]

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Why do you need a sure fire title winning plan for the next two years in lieu of what we are doing, for something else to be better? There is likely NO moves that would do that.

Doesn't mean the current course is the best.

People have laid out what they would have done like a million times, roughly similar approaches, how is someone still asking this.

It was either commit to being a big spending team, bringing back guys like Asik/Korver to keep competing with a healthy Rose. Alternately using the UG guys to get on a deal like the Gordon one, which would have returned talent and pick. Then trying to trade for your #2 option, via rebalancing total team talent that was already title worthy, or damn near (see record last two years). OR, if we are going to be a budget team start trading assets to get younger (like Deng at draft time) in order to replenish the great value to dollar deals we had prior to 2010, that helped us create such a good team out of that Free Agency.

In other words, don't go down a middle road where we are still holding on to too many big deals that are going to prevent us from clearing enough space to sign what it would take to create a championship team, while also not paying to surround those big deals with the supporting cast necessary to win that way.