Doug on "2014 Plan"

[Addicted123]

To everyone who thinks Chicago will amnesty Boozer, I really don't think it's going to happen.

What I expect to happen?

Well with the current roster... both Boozer and Hamilton will have to be featured in the offense more then they have been in the last few years. I suspect Hamilton to be moved to a contender at the trade deadline and Boozer to be moved at the deadline or in the offseason.

Chicago has options that don't include amnesty with Boozer. Chicago has no other options other then to feature Boozer and Rip on offense and with that there's a great chance both players will become desirable for contenders this upcoming season or next year(Boozer).

I agree. I consider trading Boozer a more likely scenario then an amnesty. If the Bulls aren't exactly keen on paying players, do we really expect Reinsdorf to love the idea of paying a player while he provides his services to ANOTHER team? I can see the Bulls aggressively trying to trade Boozer for a bad contract player that expires after the 13/14 season. Without Rose, it is realistic to assume Boozer's numbers will be higher and that there could be a team or two out there (especially b/c of injuries) that will want him.

That will keep this mythical 2014 plan alive without the Bulls having to pay Boozer to play for another team.

[Rerisen]

The other issue with completely bottoming out (i.e. trading Deng and Noah for rookies) is that it doesn't work because you are no longer an attractive destination.

The Bulls can't truly bottom out with a healthy D Rose. At worse you end up like the Heat, prior superteam, where Wade was carrying a bunch of scrubs to .500 and still eeking into the playoffs.

Miami did pretty much bottom out gutted their whole roster, sans Wade, prior to 2010. But because he was there, Bosh and LeBron were willing to come.

I was going to quote this part of BBull's post to and point to the crap hole team that is NJ and Dwight creaming all over himself wanting to get to that crumby team.

Likewise even the Bulls in 2010. We had lost Gordon the year before, then dumped Tyrus, Salmons, and Kirk midseason, and still ended up with 41 wins. With a worse version of Rose, and boob coach.

[pb-ceo]

it's pretty clear that the bulls FO and ownership never expected derrick would get to max NBA salary as fast as he did. that mucked up the entire plan and hurts future financial flexibility. the MVP alone cost them almost $3m of base year cap space. they now have to think in terms of moving JKN off the books to clear space for a big signing and then try to get lucky in the draft for a #3. I think they like taj as part of the long term core.

[coldfish]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

Same here man.

Cosidering I'm stopped by this train, let me quickly respond.

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

Cut brewer.
Cut watson
Sign Hinrich
Trade Korver + future first for Mayo
Retain Asik

Hope to tread water until Rose gets back in January then catch fire with
Rose / Hinrich
Mayo / Hinrich / Rip
Deng / Rip / Butler
Boozer / Gibson
Noah / Asik

That team could win a title next year depending on how well Rose responds.

Of course, people are going to ask for a team that has a good chance of winning a title instead and that reply is simple. Never going to happen. Ever. The Bulls are not going to be able to ever create a team that is significant favorites over the Heat or maybe even the Thunder. By using that as a criteria, you are putting the team on a permanent treadmill that will never go for a title.

[Wingy]

Now I am not defending the FO, but I can see what they are trying to do.. Weather the storm with short contracts, and try to be available for trades in the near future with assets (Noah, Deng, reasonnably extended Gibson(6 or 7 mils), Mirotic and Charlotte first). Failing trade they will do their best in FA... In the end what else can they do that isn't akin to staking everything on a lottery ticket.. Because make no mistake, the whole "let's trade everybody for unproven youngsters and rebuild around them and FAs will beg to come " scenario is just that : getting rid of known quantities and betting on unknowns, sure you can hit that 1,7, or 5 or 10 or 20% but you are taking a major gamble...

Fans want action, it is in their mindset, but still...

Liked your post for the most part, but don't see eye to eye on a few things. People mentioning sweetheart deals for Taj and Deng in the future. It's just not happening. That's just total optimism from a fantasy sports perspective. Those guys are gonna wanna be paid and someone will pay them.

Here's the advantage I see on the youngster route vs. trade/FA route. The trader/FA route is just as much of a crap shoot as the draft. You don't know when a player will be completely illogical like Dwight/Lebron/Bosh and say middle finger to a great basketball situation like Chicago. To me planning is just one big roll of the dice just like drafting rookies. The one thing I always point to is that our team is good at evaluating draft talent.

NY/NJ/LA/MIA are always gonna outshine Chicago. You also have the uber attractive OKC just based on talent. With players holding so much leverage, those teams aren't going away. At least in the draft, you control the evaluation of youngsters...and those youngsters work cheap.

I really wish we tried to unload guys for picks this offseason. Maybe we tried and the deals just weren't there, but I think if you are going to go the money saving / flexibility route, don't go half way like we just did.

[Wingy]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

Using Omer to take one of the star player's team's bad contracts is a good carrot for them to trade said star to you. Why do you think you see so many ideas of trade Orlando XYZ for Dwight and HEDO. They get to dump Hedo. Omer's contract let's you do that.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

Using Omer to take one of the star player's team's bad contracts is a good carrot for them to trade said star to you. Why do you think you see so many ideas of trade Orlando XYZ for Dwight and HEDO. They get to dump Hedo. Omer's contract let's you do that.

And, Omer will still be a good young player who has likely increased his worth even more - to the point a team might actually want him on the floor as opposed to just taking him so they can dump one of their longer contracts.

[Lanky Gunner]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

Same here man.

Cosidering I'm stopped by this train, let me quickly respond.

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

Cut brewer.
Cut watson
Sign Hinrich
Trade Korver + future first for Mayo
Retain Asik

Hope to tread water until Rose gets back in January then catch fire with
Rose / Hinrich
Mayo / Hinrich / Rip
Deng / Rip / Butler
Boozer / Gibson
Noah / Asik

That team could win a title next year depending on how well Rose responds.

Of course, people are going to ask for a team that has a good chance of winning a title instead and that reply is simple. Never going to happen. Ever. The Bulls are not going to be able to ever create a team that is significant favorites over the Heat or maybe even the Thunder. By using that as a criteria, you are putting the team on a permanent treadmill that will never go for a title.

+Fish.

[BuffaloBull]

The other issue with completely bottoming out (i.e. trading Deng and Noah for rookies) is that it doesn't work because you are no longer an attractive destination.

The Bulls can't truly bottom out with a healthy D Rose. At worse you end up like the Heat, prior superteam, where Wade was carrying a bunch of scrubs to .500 and still eeking into the playoffs.

Miami did pretty much bottom out gutted their whole roster, sans Wade, prior to 2010. But because he was there, Bosh and LeBron were willing to come.

Yeah but how often are you going to pull the Decision on people?

It's still an option, but it's much more risky. Unless the FO "knows" something, like Riley knew something in 2010, you probably end up in a worse place. And the Bulls don't need multiple guys. They need one regular All Star type talent. And I'd say if you get one, guys like Noah, Deng, and Taj are exactly the type of guys you want to round out your core: selfless players who don't need the ball constantly on offense to contribute and who are extremely stout on defense. You give that up for guys who are question marks, or sort of psedo-offensive stars like Barnes and Robinson project to be, and you might end up with a core that fits your core philosophy of rebounding and defense as strengths a whole lot less.

[Rerisen]

Liked your post for the most part, but don't see eye to eye on a few things. People mentioning sweetheart deals for Taj and Deng in the future. It's just not happening. That's just total optimism from a fantasy sports perspective. Those guys are gonna wanna be paid and someone will pay them.

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, definition of insanity right.

Boozer = Overpaid
Deng = Overpaid (a little)
Asik = Overpaid (so we say, drop him)
Taj = Overpaid (we are fearing it, drop him if he doesn't take a hometown discount)

So with that history and present situation starting us in the face, what is the call from the conservative side of the fanbase to remedy the above problem. It's to gut the team for more cap space! So we can try to sign some more Free Agents that will likely be just as overpaid in 2014.

Seriously, that is the plan? Hope Rudy Gay wants to come to the Bulls in 2014 for half what he's worth? Hope someone gives the Bulls a 'hometown discount', when other teams are offering them millions more.

Market value deals and Free Agency has failed the Bulls time and time again. You can overcome that if you are willing to pay enough. Lakers do it, Miami is going to do it. OKC will probably do it. But if you don't want to do it, you better start either tanking for the lottery, or acquire lottery picks with assets you already have, before you are paying several role players 10m+ and ending up in cap hell.

[Rerisen]

It's still an option, but it's much more risky. Unless the FO "knows" something, like Riley knew something in 2010, you probably end up in a worse place.

But remember the original context is trading for good picks, not just create space like Miami.

The fear of bottoming out was due to fear the return on Noah/Deng being rookies that will either bust or take a while to develop, sending your record down.

But the plan is that you actually make good picks, and have value contracts. Then you put some cap space signings WITH that young talent, and your superstar in Rose, and now you have a stable and promising salary structure. At least long enough to open a new contending window, until those picks need to be resigned. At which point you'd think about replacing them with Mirotic /Charlotte pick, or doing more trades for youth at that point.

The whole idea in an example is that a Harrison Barnes (pick your favorite rookie) ends as good or close to as good as someone like Deng in a couple years, while being 10 million cheaper, and you use that 10m on top of replacing a 5m guy like Rip, to find your real #2 option.

It's risky, but has higher upside than what we seem to be doing now. Which is a constricted approach without much upside or bad downside either. But rather just tread in the current waters of mid conference seed without much mobility in sight either way.

[BuffaloBull]

I wish I wasn't in my car so I could blast this.

Same here man.

Cosidering I'm stopped by this train, let me quickly respond.

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

Cut brewer.
Cut watson
Sign Hinrich
Trade Korver + future first for Mayo
Retain Asik

Hope to tread water until Rose gets back in January then catch fire with
Rose / Hinrich
Mayo / Hinrich / Rip
Deng / Rip / Butler
Boozer / Gibson
Noah / Asik

That team could win a title next year depending on how well Rose responds.

Of course, people are going to ask for a team that has a good chance of winning a title instead and that reply is simple. Never going to happen. Ever. The Bulls are not going to be able to ever create a team that is significant favorites over the Heat or maybe even the Thunder. By using that as a criteria, you are putting the team on a permanent treadmill that will never go for a title.

Mayo went to Dallas to put up shots, man. He probably didn't want to come here, even on more money, because we would be asking him to play nearly the same role he had at Memphis. He saw Dallas as a chance to start and be the primary backcourt option. Better fit for his needs.

[Mech Engineer]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

If the NBA GMs believe that Asik is a starting Center in the league and Center being a premier position, he will be getting a new contract after 2014-15 for his market value without any ballooning salary.
For ex, wouldn't Minnesota have his bird rights and can sign him to a reasonable extension of 15/18 mil/2 years after that? Plus, he would not be Brand or Boozer in terms of an expiring contract. He has value to almost every team in the league after his one-year mega deal except for a 6/8 teams.

It looks like they didn't want to pay Boozer and Asik together in 14-15 and that's why they made this decision. IMO, it was nothing else ...all those other reasons are rationalizations

[Wingy]

And, Omer will still be a good young player who has likely increased his worth even more - to the point a team might actually want him on the floor as opposed to just taking him so they can dump one of their longer contracts.

And, did I mention that kid is a freaking Walmart, K-Mart blue light special the next 2 damn seasons at $5 million per? Nevermind, don't wanna derail to Omer-ville and I'm preaching to the primate choir.

Also, great players have been traded for just expirings and a few other assets directly - Pau to LA being the most recent prominent example.

[BuffaloBull]

It's still an option, but it's much more risky. Unless the FO "knows" something, like Riley knew something in 2010, you probably end up in a worse place.

But remember the original context is trading for good picks, not just create space like Miami.

The fear of bottoming out was due to fear the return on Noah/Deng being rookies that will either bust or take a while to develop, sending your record down.

But the plan is that you actually make good picks, and have value contracts. Then you put some cap space WITH that young talent, and your superstar in Rose, and now you have a stable and promising salary structure.

We're going to have value contracts. Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Teague, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and the Cats pick. Even if only 1/2 of those truly pan out, you're still in good shape.

But if you can get a second guy who is a major scorer next to Rose, Noah and Deng and Taj are exactly the kind of support players you want to round out the core with.

Why get rid of them when you will just have to go out and find them again? Why trade them away for the promise of a guy who you think is an overall better player, but might actually fit the role you have available for them, post-trade, worse than the guys you had before?

[Wingy]

If we truly are targeting 2014 as a possible FA target, then going for youngsters is also ideal due to the makeup of that class.

I crapped on it earlier because there's a lotta names but they are all gonna be ooolllldddd by the time they are playing for us.

So if you're aiming at old guys, then you pair them with a mid-20's Rose and some talented guys on rookie deals to strike a balance.

[veji1]

Liked your post for the most part, but don't see eye to eye on a few things. People mentioning sweetheart deals for Taj and Deng in the future. It's just not happening. That's just total optimism from a fantasy sports perspective. Those guys are gonna wanna be paid and someone will pay them.

Here's the advantage I see on the youngster route vs. trade/FA route. The trader/FA route is just as much of a crap shoot as the draft. You don't know when a player will be completely illogical like Dwight/Lebron/Bosh and say middle finger to a great basketball situation like Chicago. To me planning is just one big roll of the dice just like drafting rookies. The one thing I always point to is that our team is good at evaluating draft talent.

NY/NJ/LA/MIA are always gonna outshine Chicago. You also have the uber attractive OKC just based on talent. With players holding so much leverage, those teams aren't going away. At least in the draft, you control the evaluation of youngsters...and those youngsters work cheap.

I really wish we tried to unload guys for picks this offseason. Maybe we tried and the deals just weren't there, but I think if you are going to go the money saving / flexibility route, don't go half way like we just did.

Appreciate your answer. Just to clear it out, I didn't say that Gibson or Deng would take discounts. I said that I think the plan is to move forward with that core group still together and trying to get Gibson to sign a reasonnable extension (6 or 7 mils, that is the FO should offer him 30/5 or something like this and not go above 35/5), of course if they can't get him for that price than they would have to trade him..

[Rerisen]

We're going to have value contracts. Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Teague, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and the Cats pick. Even if only 1/2 of those truly pan out, you're still in good shape.

By value contract I meant for the production provided, not just as in they are cheap players.

Jimmy Butler and Teague aren't going to pan out in the way a lottery pick pans out. We have to be realistic. The stuff farther down the line, yes maybe, but again are you comfortable expending 4 years of Rose's prime career to wait for Mirotic and the Charlotte pick?

Bulls don't know when Mirotic is coming over. His contract runs through 16-17. If he comes early he will likely need a couple years in the league to become what he will. If we don't have Taj to support that position for that time, we better have value for Taj, prerferably another young player with high potential.

That plan is just too far out. Bulls should be retooling right now, and looking to use the Charlotte pick to enhance our chances right now, heck I was for using it last year.

Dragging these assets out is nothing but the path everyone is already decrying. Keeping the team just 'decent' right now, while also insuring it is just 'decent' in the future. Always staying on the edges, always bringing in profit, never going all in.

Luol Deng and Taj Gibson are not going to be part of the 2016 plan. They will be well into their 30s that is why you trade them now if you have a plan that far out.

[Wingy]

We're going to have value contracts. Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Teague, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and the Cats pick. Even if only 1/2 of those truly pan out, you're still in good shape.

But if you can get a second guy who is a major scorer next to Rose, Noah and Deng and Taj are exactly the kind of support players you want to round out the core with.

Why get rid of them when you will just have to go out and find them again? Why trade them away for the promise of a guy who you think is an overall better player, but might actually fit the role you have available for them, post-trade, worse than the guys you had before?

How are we getting this #2 guy while keeping Noah, Deng and Taj around?

Also, I feel you grossly overrate our assets. Mirotic could be really good, but my guess is that he's a 3rd option type at best. Butler/Teague/late picks...if they "pan out" they are solid role players...guys that can be signed any offseason.

I think the Cats pick is going to be huge and just might bail this ownership out...again...just like lucking into Rose.

[Wingy]

Appreciate your answer. Just to clear it out, I didn't say that Gibson or Deng would take discounts. I said that I think the plan is to move forward with that core group still together and trying to get Gibson to sign a reasonnable extension (6 or 7 mils, that is the FO should offer him 30/5 or something like this and not go above 35/5), of course if they can't get him for that price than they would have to trade him..

I know you didn't mention Deng, but some have. If trying to get Taj to resign on a cheap deal is part of our "plan"...goodness help us.

I took a huge dump on Taj when he was drafted. Boy was I wrong. I love what he brings to our team. But, he's going to be overpaid, and if we missed out on flipping guys for youngsters this offseason, then I think Taj gives us another chance at it...and yeah, it could be another swing at moving Deng too.

Also letting go of Omer, we put ourselves in a tough position because I always maintained Noah was our best trade asset...and now we compromised our ability to move that asset letting Omer walk...another big reason why not resigning him was a mistake.