Doug on "2014 Plan"

[Concept Coop]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

Using Omer to take one of the star player's team's bad contracts is a good carrot for them to trade said star to you. Why do you think you see so many ideas of trade Orlando XYZ for Dwight and HEDO. They get to dump Hedo. Omer's contract let's you do that.

We can't afford to do that. We can't afford to take on a contract like Hendo AND the contract of an all-star level player.

And, we could take on Hendo - in your senario - if we had the capspace and didn't have to send a huge expiring.

What if a team didn't want to take the salary back?

Any way you slice it, we have MORE options, financially, without Asik at 15 million.

[Rerisen]

I think the Cats pick is going to be huge and just might bail this ownership out...again...just like lucking into Rose.

It won't bail them out if all our other assets have gotten old or expired by them. Or let go because we couldn't afford them (Taj).

It will help them stay mildly competitive maybe, just like we are now. But by the time that player develops Rose going to be near 30.

[Rerisen]

Let's say the 2016 pick is a miracle fit like James Harden. That would be a wondrous stroke of luck. Well James Harden just became a star THIS season, his 3rd.

Rose age in accordance with a James Harden like 2016 pick progression.

2016: Rose 28 (Harden PER 14.0)
2017: Rose 29 (Harden PER 16.4)
2018: Rose 30 (Harden PER 21.1)

C'mon the Bulls can do better than this for Derrick Rose within the next 7 years.

But doing better means not just limping along toward the finish line.

If paying for the team to come back was sprinting for the finish line.

If trading to get young assets was going to back to the gym to train harder for the next race.

Then what we are doing now is continuing to run the race, but with one gimp leg. It's waffling indecision.

We should get such a young player as above, to start developing *right now* if we want their impact to coincide with Rose's prime.

[BuffaloBull]

We're going to have value contracts. Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Teague, 2013 pick, 2014 pick, and the Cats pick. Even if only 1/2 of those truly pan out, you're still in good shape.

But if you can get a second guy who is a major scorer next to Rose, Noah and Deng and Taj are exactly the kind of support players you want to round out the core with.

Why get rid of them when you will just have to go out and find them again? Why trade them away for the promise of a guy who you think is an overall better player, but might actually fit the role you have available for them, post-trade, worse than the guys you had before?

How are we getting this #2 guy while keeping Noah, Deng and Taj around?

Also, I feel you grossly overrate our assets. Mirotic could be really good, but my guess is that he's a 3rd option type at best. Butler/Teague/late picks...if they "pan out" they are solid role players...guys that can be signed any offseason.

You trade one of them, keep the rest. Adding a guy in 2014-2015 under this scenario isn't so much a talent for talent trade as it is either an outright signing/sign and trade or a leverage scenario on a 2015 guy.

I don't think that Mirotic and all the young guys are all that great, but they are easily movable, if necessary, and a few of them should have value to a team that is starting over. And the Bulls can also throw in multiple 1st plus the cats pick in any deal, which teams like Miami, New York, and LA can't do because they've already done that.

If you can come out of 2014 with 4 guys on a mature core: Rose, Player X, Noah, and one of Deng and Taj, +Thibs then you have done an awesome job, and you have a team with all the best elements of our current squad (defensive, rebounding prowess) + the added scoring and talent the current iteration of the squad lacks. Everything else beyond that is gravy in my opinion. Omer on a reasonable deal would've definitely contributed to that. Heck, Omer at a flat 8 million probably would've been a movable asset. But Omer at 15 million that summer effs up the cap window, and instead of spending all your assets to make one deal happen, you'd need to split them to move Asik and then get the guy. The deal gets more complicated and harder to pull off.

I think being close to the cap in 2014, and having the flexibility to outright sign a guy, if necessary, helps get you closer to that goal. Other people think it'd be better by taking on salaries (like that Gordon deal) to get more assets and then do talent for talent trades. I think everybody wants to end up in the same place.

[Concept Coop]

In fact, wouldn't Omer's poison pill year have been expiring in Love/Aldridge's expiring year's also...aka a good trade asset?

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

If the NBA GMs believe that Asik is a starting Center in the league and Center being a premier position, he will be getting a new contract after 2014-15 for his market value without any ballooning salary.
For ex, wouldn't Minnesota have his bird rights and can sign him to a reasonable extension of 15/18 mil/2 years after that? Plus, he would not be Brand or Boozer in terms of an expiring contract. He has value to almost every team in the league after his one-year mega deal except for a 6/8 teams.

It looks like they didn't want to pay Boozer and Asik together in 14-15 and that's why they made this decision. IMO, it was nothing else ...all those other reasons are rationalizations

That is a huge IF. He didnt' show any improvement from year 1 to 2.

Why are we pretending that paying him $15 million is a good thing? It's not. Expirings are valuable, but that value is not universal. Most of that value comes in the form of teams wanting to shed bad contracts - not something we will be looking to do.

We would need a team willing to simply TAKE Asik's contract, while giving up something big in the process. What good does that do them, when they can simply wait until he becomes a free agent?

Unless we are in the market for picks, in combination with bad contracts, it is a huge risk.

[Mech Engineer]

I think the Cats pick is going to be huge and just might bail this ownership out...again...just like lucking into Rose.

It won't bail them out if all our other assets have gotten old or expired by them. Or let go because we couldn't afford them (Taj).

It will help them stay mildly competitive maybe, just like we are now. But by the time that player develops Rose going to be near 30.

That's the bottom-line if people are not realizing it fast enough. Rose except for 12-13 season is available as a superstar. But, he has had a major injury which most c'ship winning superstars(LeBron, Kobe, Nowitzki,MJ, Shaq, Duncan) have never had. It is a super serious injury for a player who relies on his athleticism and who doesn't have the great PG skills of a John Stockton to begin with. And, that athleticism with this injury and aging will go down faster than what we thought in 2011. He will still be a great player, no doubt about it. But, will he regain that tiny bit of extra athleticism which would make the difference against somebody like a Kyrie Irving or a John Wall in critical playoff games as a #1 option. And, that will get worse as he gets older or the chances of another freak injury exist.

To wait for Mirotic or Kevin Love dream scenario( it is a lot of alignment) is really crazy.
Everybody knows you don't make hasty decisions. The biggest issue is don't hesitate to spend whichever the Bulls can when they have Rose healthy and optimize his complementary cast every year.

[Concept Coop]

Let's say the 2016 pick is a miracle fit like James Harden. That would be a wondrous stroke of luck. Well James Harden just became a star THIS season, his 3rd.

Rose age in accordance with a James Harden like 2016 pick progression.

2016: Rose 28 (Harden PER 14.0)
2017: Rose 29 (Harden PER 16.4)
2018: Rose 30 (Harden PER 21.1)

C'mon the Bulls can do better than this for Derrick Rose within the next 7 years.

But doing better means not just limping along toward the finish line.

If paying for the team to come back was sprinting for the finish line.

If trading to get young assets was going to back to the gym to train harder for the next race.

Then what we are doing now is continuing to run the race, but with one gimp leg. It's waffling indecision.

We should get such a young player as above, to start developing *right now* if we want their impact to coincide with Rose's prime.

You are assuming the plan is to simply luck out in 2016. It's not. That doesn't mean getting a top 3 pick isn't a GREAT thing.

It's not waffling indecision - it's calculated planning; it's not starting over and blowing it up. But not investing everything in a roster that likely won't win it all.

It's about being flexible and smart.

[Rerisen]

One explanation that I don't think has been put forth, that would explain this offseason perhaps better than most.

Maybe the FO really is deluding themselves to believe that what they have done this offseason IS going for it? Despite the price constraints and concessions. And that Kirky and co. IS going to have us competing for the title again when Rose gets back? Maybe they think Boozer and Rip have one last season gasp of inspired play in them. Maybe they believe it. Some here do.

[Wingy]

No. It would be a very negative "asset".

The poisen pill would only be appealing to those wanting to get rid of bad contracts. If we are looking for an all-star level player, nobody is taking Asik at 15 million back.

Using Omer to take one of the star player's team's bad contracts is a good carrot for them to trade said star to you. Why do you think you see so many ideas of trade Orlando XYZ for Dwight and HEDO. They get to dump Hedo. Omer's contract let's you do that.

We can't afford to do that. We can't afford to take on a contract like Hendo AND the contract of an all-star level player.

And, we could take on Hendo - in your senario - if we had the capspace and didn't have to send a huge expiring.

What if a team didn't want to take the salary back?

Any way you slice it, we have MORE options, financially, without Asik at 15 million.

Is that you Jerry? Why can't we afford it again?

Are we Memphis or Charlotte all of a sudden?

I love how so many have just rolled over, continue to pass their money and accept the team's self imposed hard cap while arguing with other fans as if to say "what the hell's wrong with you for asking your team to spend like all the other big markets?"

We have people who make smart basketball decisions in GarPax. When I say spend, it's spending with those guys at the helm...not the boobs the Knicks have had over the years...so don't try to throw back the spending for spending's sake.

What cap space? The other guys are gonna be on the books still and we can't just absorb a max type player in a mid-season trade...and once we do have space, those All Star guys will be UFAs able to go anywhere they want.

[Rerisen]

It's not waffling indecision - it's calculated planning; it's not starting over and blowing it up. But not investing everything in a roster that likely won't win it all.

If the roster isn't going to win it all - then you divest of players within the roster that don't fit the long term plan. You get something for them before you lose them for nothing, like already happened with Asik. We aren't (or haven't yet) done that.

I agree with you its calculated planning, just not with what the end of that plan is.

[Sonny_D1]

The 2022 plan.

[Wingy]

We should get such a young player as above, to start developing *right now* if we want their impact to coincide with Rose's prime.

Winner!

[Concept Coop]

To wait for Mirotic or Kevin Love dream scenario( it is a lot of alignment) is really crazy.
Everybody knows you don't make hasty decisions. The biggest issue is don't hesitate to spend whichever the Bulls can when they have Rose healthy and optimize his complementary cast every year.

The Heat lucked into being a dynasty. We don't have the luxary of being bad enough to build the way OKC did; hell, we've gone that route and it didn't work. The Lakers got very lucky with Kobe and Bynum, and were gifted Gasol.

Those are not options for us to pursue. They are either going to happen by a future HOF deciding to come here, or they won't. You can't really plan for that.

Throwing money around isn't going to do anyone any good. Especially this season.

[BULLHITTER]

Maybe the FO really is deluding themselves to believe that what they have done this offseason IS going for it? Despite the price constraints and concessions. And that Kirky and co. IS going to have us competing for the title again when Rose gets back? Maybe they think Boozer and Rip have one last season gasp of inspired play in them. Maybe they believe it. Some here do

they most certainly wouldn't STATE anything to the contrary, therefore i'm inclined to believe (based on their intimate knowledge of their financial constraints) that this delusion could very well be true.

[Concept Coop]

Is that you Jerry? Why can't we afford it again?

Are we Memphis or Charlotte all of a sudden?

I love how so many have just rolled over, continue to pass their money and accept the team's self imposed hard cap while arguing with other fans as if to say "what the hell's wrong with you for asking your team to spend like all the other big markets?"

We have people who make smart basketball decisions in GarPax. When I say spend, it's spending with those guys at the helm...not the boobs the Knicks have had over the years...so don't try to throw back the spending for spending's sake.

What cap space? The other guys are gonna be on the books still and we can't just absorb a max type player in a mid-season trade...and once we do have space, those All Star guys will be UFAs able to go anywhere they want.

Look at the new CBA, then get back to me. If you don't have the cap space, you don't get the player.

New Jersey would love to pay the tax and give Dwight the max. But that's not an option any more. If a team doesn't like what we have to offer, they don't have to take it, like they used to.

Having a 15 million obstacle is not a good thing.

[Concept Coop]

We should get such a young player as above, to start developing *right now* if we want their impact to coincide with Rose's prime.

Winner!

Hardly.

At what cost? If Rose comes back at 100%, we are a few minor moves from being a title contender. We won't be better than Miami, but we could luck into an All-Star and still not be. If the only end game to please you is to be better than Miami, or start over...we'll be starting over until LeBron retires.

You don't throw away the opportunity to compete over the next 3 years, to HOPE that a Harrison Barnes is a top 10 player.

[Wingy]

How are we getting this #2 guy while keeping Noah, Deng and Taj around?

Also, I feel you grossly overrate our assets. Mirotic could be really good, but my guess is that he's a 3rd option type at best. Butler/Teague/late picks...if they "pan out" they are solid role players...guys that can be signed any offseason.

You trade one of them, keep the rest. Adding a guy in 2014-2015 under this scenario isn't so much a talent for talent trade as it is either an outright signing/sign and trade or a leverage scenario on a 2015 guy.

So who's trading a championship level #2 for any of those guys..except for perhaps Noah...but we just left our pants down on that one by letting Omer walk.

[Rerisen]

If Rose is coming back to 100% then we should have kept the damn team around him that just led the league in wins 2 straight years.

That's the whole problem, we don't know if we are going for it, or rebuilding.

We are just trudging forward, having gotten weaker.

Even with a 100% Rose, this team would have needed everything to have gone right, and everyone we had to have performed to beat Miami. Chipping away even a little at those narrow odds we had, are sending them plummeting to unrealistic levels.

[BULLHITTER]

You don't throw away the opportunity to compete over the next 3 years, to HOPE that a Harrison Barnes is a top 10 player.

what's the difference between hoping (insert your guy here; i'm not a barnes fan ) and hoping that some stroke of luck will occur to upgrade the starting talent (via trade or FA) in 2014?

bulls want to compete for the playoffs, not necessarily for the championship.

[Mech Engineer]

That is a huge IF. He didnt' show any improvement from year 1 to 2.

Why are we pretending that paying him $15 million is a good thing? It's not. Expirings are valuable, but that value is not universal. Most of that value comes in the form of teams wanting to shed bad contracts - not something we will be looking to do.

We would need a team willing to simply TAKE Asik's contract, while giving up something big in the process. What good does that do them, when they can simply wait until he becomes a free agent?

Unless we are in the market for picks, in combination with bad contracts, it is a huge risk.

1. Who said paying him $15 mil is a good thing
2. The point is if there is an expiring which would have been valuable, it would be Asik's rather than an old/lost skill-set Brand and Boozer. Again, I am not saying that Asik's contract would be the best expiring in the history of the NBA.
3. It is a valuable expiring because the team doesn't have to take an useless expiring like Boozer's(for ex:) and also try to find another cheap player in that deal. It is tough to make trades. Asik would have been a contract which could have been extended easily in the future. And, yes he is a legit Center if you still have doubts about his ability.