Doug on "2014 Plan"

[GetBuLLish]

The Korver trade was verified to me by sources from both organizations involved, so yeah, I know the Bulls could have had a 1st and a 1 year deal for Korver but opted not do it. The player would have been useful for us too IMO and made under 5 million.

Wow. What a f*cking joke.

[Bruteque]

Part of what makes discussing this hard (if not impossible) is that so many people pretend they want high risks, even though their history shows they rip any and every move that doesn't work. In other words, they want results, so while they pretend they want high risk/high reward they really want low risk/low reward. There is no patience or tolerance for moves that don't work.

Again somewhat ironically, I liked the Wallace/Johnson/Tyrus acquisitions while they've been panned by the alleged 'high risk' crowd'.

But on the two paths, I don't really agree there are two paths, I think this is a fallacy. It's very hard to get as good as the Bulls have been, which is a contender. An elite team is the end goal. They achieved that, yet some people aren't happy. But I do believe the Bulls would love to add another stud, and are going about that in the highest pct. way, but there's implication there are moves to do so that they are declining to do, without of course people actually mentioning the moves.

It's like I said, if you are going to advocate risk, then you have to accept that you can hurt your talent level as easily as you can help your talent level. If you do not advocate risk, then your ability to effect an increase in talent level through moves is very limited, and the scarcity of improvement is a natural consequence.

I never said you can only slice the full risk spectrum two ways. You can slice it any number of ways. You can slice it fifteen ways, name every one of the slices, and argue which move falls into which slice if you want, but if you slice it two ways, then every move or lack thereof is going to fall into one of the two and there is less argument over what falls where.

As far as your profession of faith in the FO goes, the moves the FO are making do not necessarily suggest incompetence. Obviously they want to field championship level talent. I mean, no blah they would love to add another stud. It's like many have pointed out before, fielding championship level talent is obviously a priority (duh), but the moves they have been making suggest that it may not be their top priority.

Reasonable dissatisfaction for a reasonable way to run a business.

[sporadiclee]

Great article, Doug. Interesting info about the Korver and Watson offers, too.

Youth seems to be an integral part of any rebuilding process, and the Bulls currently have 3 players under the age of 26, one draft pick that's not their own and one young guy stashed in Europe. GarPax have a ton of work ahead of them.

[WinCity]

The Korver trade was verified to me by sources from both organizations involved, so yeah, I know the Bulls could have had a 1st and a 1 year deal for Korver but opted not do it. The player would have been useful for us too IMO and made under 5 million.

Wow. What a f*cking joke.

Yup. JR is first class all the way. Whatever it takes to win.

[Ralphb07]

Does someone have a source that we could have traded any of Brewer, CJ or Kyle for a first round pick? That seem extremely hard to believe. Those guys have since been proven to be worth jack.

I know of trades that would have returned a 1st for both Korver and Watson that were rejected because the Bulls would have had to take back a one year contract and didn't want to add the salary.

Doug is correct here. I know of one with Korver. The team actually just did the same exact trade 2 days
ago.

Also Doug I have to say your podcast with KC was flat out awesome man. Keep up the good work

[babblin-on]

Lee signed a four year deal, Mayo a 2 year deal. How are they available next summer? Trade? Leaving aside the fact that their availability isn't a given, what's the advantage of trading assets of any sort for someone we could've just as easily absorbed into Korver's TPE this summer?

I agree with you to the extent that though the Bulls haven't cleared the decks for 2014 yet, there's enough time between now and then to make moves to free space up for that. But in terms of maintaining the ability to remain competitive in 12-13' I just don't see anything they've done this summer to further that goal, and in fact think they've made it less likely in letting assets go away for nothing.

Mayo signed a deal with an opt out for next summer.

That doesn't make his availability next summer a given. I think it's fairly likely he opts, out, but not certain.

If he does opt out next summer, there's a fairly good chance that will also mean that he had a good year and raised his asking price.

In the event his market value stays the same, it looks like we'll have to try and sign him via the MLE or at least part of it, where this year, we could've just used that TPE, in which case next year, I'd assume we'd have his Bird rights and therefore we could re-sign him and pick up an MLE guy as well. Sounds like a better scenario for a team looking to seriously compete in 13-14'.

Another benefit to using the financial flexibility of the Korver TPE to get a guy like Mayo(or preferably Lee) this year rather than next is that the guy would already have a year of acclimating to Thibs' system and building chemistry with his teammates, even Rose during whatever portion of the season he plays.

Sorry, but nothing this team has done indicates to me that they're looking to compete in 13-14. What do you perceive as a move they've made this summer that furthers that goal?

[Future Coach]

So are you saying we could have had a 1st round pick + Wes Johnson for Korver?


anyone know what kind of protection that pick has on it?

[mjaye]

It's funny how many posters have changed their tune from pre-draft threads and are now advocacting for the Bulls to rebuild through cheap talent as opposed to "retooling." The $ writing has been on the wall for awhile now and is absolutely why I pushed for the Bulls to move Noah/Deng for draft picks. The same goes for swinging a trade for Howard. Both scenarios show a clear direction by the FO, and are ones that the average fan can understand and get behind. Both scenarios also pull the Bulls out of their current exile into financial limbo.

Now, the Bulls are in a very precarious state. The FO is essentially retooling and sitting on the fence, hoping the present core can take them through the playoffs again. I have my doubts because the core is another year older and injuries are already a factor before the season even starts.

As much as people keep saying Boozer is a lock to be amnestied, I still have my doubts. Uncle Jerry is not going to pay more than he has to, and the whole hype of recouping a good chunk of Boozer's salary through an amnesty claim has been shot down by this years amnesty claims. Luxury tax or not, the Buls have an annual dollar figure in mind that they want to spend, and if amnestying Boozer doesn't align with that dollar figure then it's highly unlikely he gets amnestied.

Taj and Mrotic is an interesting situation. If the Bulls lock up Taj long term then he is likely to be our future starting PF. Bulls aren't likely to pay $8M-$9M for a bench player (see: Asik). If Mrotic comes over and shines in a backup role then we're going to have another Asik situation on our hands. It's in the best interest of the Bulls to bring Mrotic over on a longer term deal if they believe he's going to be used consistently in the rotation. Whether Mrotic will agree is another matter.

If the Bulls really are aiming for 2014 then I believe they're either pinning their hopes on Mrotic being the future starting PF on the cheap, they expect to re-sign Gibson on a reasonable deal, or they're targeting a FA/trade at PF (ex: Love). 2 out of those 3 scenarios see Gibson leaving, I'm not holding my breath on him being with the Bulls in 2014.

[DuckIII]

15 pages into this thread and I read only one poster who actually refuted Doug's article. And that was Duck. Duck basically proposed that the Bulls' '2014' plan might actually consist of dumping every player on the roster not named Rose or Noah. That way, the Bulls would have cap space for a max salary, unlike in Doug's article.

But is that plan really something to dump two years for?

You are misinterpreting what I wrote. I wrote that IF the 2014 plan is to gain maximum capspace for free agency, that the Bulls current path facilitates it. That's just a fact. Doug wrote out a presumed scenario to establish that the Bulls, even with this plan, would not have max space. That's just not accurate. I explained how they could (which, without Asik, is actually extremely easy). And, by the way, I explained how they could in a way that would also retain Taj (and Mirotic and the Charlotte pick, etlc).

Its ultimately letting Deng walk and amnestying Boozer, which is what its already been. What I wrote is not anything new at all. It was just a deconstruction of a flawed premise.

Furthermore, the underlined part is completely detached from what I wrote. What I wrote explains that, unlike doug's preferred plan which actually does sacrifice the next two years completely with no regard at all to Rose's health, the Bulls current plan DOESN'T do that, and lays the groundwork for a plan through which we still contend in Rose's healthy return year while also remaining flexible for 2014. Doug's proposed alternative plan is to accept zero contention for the next two years. I wholeheartedly reject that approach, barring future events (i.e., Noah blowing out a knee or some other horrific event).

[DuckIII]

Lee signed a four year deal, Mayo a 2 year deal. How are they available next summer? Trade? Leaving aside the fact that their availability isn't a given, what's the advantage of trading assets of any sort for someone we could've just as easily absorbed into Korver's TPE this summer?

I agree with you to the extent that though the Bulls haven't cleared the decks for 2014 yet, there's enough time between now and then to make moves to free space up for that. But in terms of maintaining the ability to remain competitive in 12-13' I just don't see anything they've done this summer to further that goal, and in fact think they've made it less likely in letting assets go away for nothing.

Mayo signed a deal with an opt out for next summer.

That doesn't make his availability next summer a given. I think it's fairly likely he opts, out, but not certain.

That was my point. He'll opt out. I had bad information on Courtney Lee. My bad. I thought he signed a one year deal.

Regardless:

Sorry, but nothing this team has done indicates to me that they're looking to compete in 13-14. What do you perceive as a move they've made this summer that furthers that goal?

Come on now. The fact that, contrary to many realgm message board urgings, the Bulls did not dump Deng, Noah, Boozer, etc., for hope and prayer lottery picks clearly evidences that they intend to retain the core to compete and contend in 2013-14. The additional moves that will facilitate that contention will be made at the trade deadline or next summer. This is obvious.

[Concept Coop]

The $ writing has been on the wall for awhile now and is absolutely why I pushed for the Bulls to move Noah/Deng for draft picks. The same goes for swinging a trade for Howard. Both scenarios show a clear direction by the FO, and are ones that the average fan can understand and get behind. Both scenarios also pull the Bulls out of their current exile into financial limbo.
Now, the Bulls are in a very precarious state. The FO is essentially retooling and sitting on the fence, hoping the present core can take them through the playoffs again.

Taj and Mrotic is an interesting situation. If the Bulls lock up Taj long term then he is likely to be our future starting PF. Bulls aren't likely to pay $8M-$9M for a bench player (see: Asik). If Mrotic comes over and shines in a backup role then we're going to have another Asik situation on our hands. It's in the best interest of the Bulls to bring Mrotic over on a longer term deal if they believe he's going to be used consistently in the rotation. Whether Mrotic will agree is another matter.

If the Bulls really are aiming for 2014 then I believe they're either pinning their hopes on Mrotic being the future starting PF on the cheap, they expect to re-sign Gibson on a reasonable deal, or they're targeting a FA/trade at PF (ex: Love). 2 out of those 3 scenarios see Gibson leaving, I'm not holding my breath on him being with the Bulls in 2014.

You people do realize the Bulls front office explored trades for Deng, right? And reportedly Noah, too. They are not simply "sitting on the fence" or content with "limbo". There is no timeline for them to make a deal. When they find deals that they feel help the team, they make them. The Bulls have been consistently active in the trade market and very good at finding talent in the draft.

The moment the front office starts making moves so that the "average fan" can get behind them, is the moment they turn into the Orlando Magic; surrounding Rose with horrible contracts for the sake of making a trade.

The hate that the front office is getting is not logical, in my opinion. People have created trade scenarios in their mind that may or may not have been options. Then, condemning the organization for not making them...just to make them.

OJ Mayo and Courtney Lee are below average starting options; Harrison Barnes and a bad contract is not good value for Deng; Keeping Asik and "flipping" Noah is not a smart basketball move; trading Noah and Deng for draft picks wastes 2-3 years of Derrick's prime and hurts our desirability to free agents; The front office has been told that Howard is not interested in playing here; And Asik's 15 million dollar season could prevent us from acquiring a top 10-15 player to pair with Derrick Rose.

The Asik situation sucks, but what could the front office do? They couldn't deal him before the deadline, because if Rose doesn't get hurt, he could have been the difference between beating the Heat and not. GarPax made a calculated move and it didn't work out the way they hoped. But their logic wasn't fundamentally flawed - sometimes you lose your assets for nothing but the service they provided you on the court during their time with the team.

[BuffaloBull]

15 pages into this thread and I read only one poster who actually refuted Doug's article. And that was Duck. Duck basically proposed that the Bulls' '2014' plan might actually consist of dumping every player on the roster not named Rose or Noah. That way, the Bulls would have cap space for a max salary, unlike in Doug's article.

But is that plan really something to dump two years for?

You are misinterpreting what I wrote. I wrote that IF the 2014 plan is to gain maximum capspace for free agency, that the Bulls current path facilitates it. That's just a fact. Doug wrote out a presumed scenario to establish that the Bulls, even with this plan, would not have max space. That's just not accurate. I explained how they could (which, without Asik, is actually extremely easy). And, by the way, I explained how they could in a way that would also retain Taj (and Mirotic and the Charlotte pick, etlc).

Its ultimately letting Deng walk and amnestying Boozer, which is what its already been. What I wrote is not anything new at all. It was just a deconstruction of a flawed premise.

Furthermore, the underlined part is completely detached from what I wrote. What I wrote explains that, unlike doug's preferred plan which actually does sacrifice the next two years completely with no regard at all to Rose's health, the Bulls current plan DOESN'T do that, and lays the groundwork for a plan through which we still contend in Rose's healthy return year while also remaining flexible for 2014. Doug's proposed alternative plan is to accept zero contention for the next two years. I wholeheartedly reject that approach, barring future events (i.e., Noah blowing out a knee or some other horrific event).

The other thing people see is that it's all about whether assets are moveable or not. As long as a team would be willing to take a player on their current contract for free, then that player could moved in the event that you wanted more space. For many of them, you could probably get a pick back as well. So 2014 isn't about bottoming out completely, 2014 is about as having as clean a balance sheet as possible: no guys you would have to pay to move. And that's it. The rest you figure out with your flexibility.

This team is one guy away. One. Rose, Player X, and Noah. Boom. A great core. And if the chips fall right, you might be able to keep one of Taj or Deng to go with that core. Even better. Mirotic and whatever young guys you have left after making that trade or clearing for space go with it. It's hard to ask for more than that, and that should be a championship-contending team for the heart of Derrick's prime.

Getting Player X is tough, really tough, but having the flexibility to do it 3 ways (outright signing, sign and trade, or talent trade) is really the best way to increase the odds of something happening. People may have different opinions on that, but with the new CBA, and real restrictions on above apron tax-paying teams, I do think that preserving flexibility for using all 3 moves is the best way to keep yourself ready for the right opportunity. Let's be honest. If Dwight wanted to be here, he probably would be, right now. The next guy might.

Once you get your #2 guy, the rest will figure itself out, because when your core is in place guys come play with you for less because they want to win (The Heat) and/or your system is so strong that you can find guys who need a system to excel at specific roles (The Spurs).

[drosestruts]

So are you saying we could have had a 1st round pick + Wes Johnson for Korver?


anyone know what kind of protection that pick has on it?

Minny traded their 1st round pick for Buddinger and you can't trade 1st round picks in consecutive years so I don't think he's talking about Minny.

I don't get why he's being so cute and coy either.

[Concept Coop]

Trading Watson/Brewer for bad salary and picks doesn't hurt flexibility, it helps it by adding more assets.

Not having bad contracts is an asset. Why do you think teams pay draft picks to get rid of them? It ABSOLUTELY hurts future flexibility.

How many late first round draft picks are going to help you feel better should Dwight chagne his tune and we don't have the capspace to take him?

We're talking about 1 year deals, those contracts would be more useful for trading for Dwight than the position we're in now. It's HARDER to trade for Dwight now than if we got these picks and kept one year deals on the books. It's harder to trade for Dwight than if we just kept CJ/Watson/Brewer. As I said, we've lost flexibility, not gained it.

I won't pretend that the front office isn't avoiding the tax - they are.

But trading role players for draft picks AND bad contracts would greatly hamper our flexibility. Those won't be 1 year deals.

[Pnjguy]

I'm fully on board with the FO and their decisions this past month. In 2 years, there will be a lot of teams that will simply be unable to do anything because of the new CBA, which does 2 things in the Bulls favor. 1) Teams with restraints will sell off their players pennies on the dollar 2) Available FA's will have a limited number of teams they can go to, they no longer can just pick and choose where they have to go. In other words, the owners won big time with the new CBA.

[thunderspirit]

Does someone have a source that we could have traded any of Brewer, CJ or Kyle for a first round pick? That seem extremely hard to believe. Those guys have since been proven to be worth jack.

I know of trades that would have returned a 1st for both Korver and Watson that were rejected because the Bulls would have had to take back a one year contract and didn't want to add the salary.

Doug is correct here. I know of one with Korver. The team actually just did the same exact trade 2 days
ago.

Also Doug I have to say your podcast with KC was flat out awesome man. Keep up the good work

I will admit, missing out on a deal like that is disappointing. I understand why they didn't do it, trying to avoid going over the apron figure. But it's still disappointing.

Also, +1 to Ralph on kudos for Doug.

[cot2]

Since Watson, and Brewer were not traded, waived, not claimed, and signed for minimum salary contracts, the players had zero value by themselves. The only value was that of being able to clear cap space, by cutting them, before they became guaranteed. Korver had enough positive value, relative to his contract, to get out from under the $500K guarantee, but not enough to bring a pick, without taking something bad back, or they would have jumped on it.

If there really were deals, that would have returned draft picks, almost by definition, the players obtained would have had a negative value, at least equal to those picks. The other team would in essence be paying the Bulls to take the contracts off their hands, sticking the Bulls with players that would tie up the limited cap space they had to work with.

So if there were any offered deals, the negative value of their contracts would make the Bulls worse short term, to gain whatever picks were supposedly offer. You can see why the Bulls would pass on that type of opportunity. I am surprised the Bulls board would want to go that route, but after the call for a Deng deal, and suggestions like this, it does support the tank idea some suggest.

I expect there was plenty of teams trying to dump negative value contracts into the non guaranteed deals. You can see how hard the Bulls are trying to fill out the roster that is now hard capped. If they had taken one of those deals, they would not even had the full MLE, and the BAE, to get the players they were targeting. Even if they were willing to pass on the players they liked, and accepted the player they did not, to get the pick, they would be paying his salary, and tax.

The end result would be the player they did not want, the MMLE, instead of the MLE, and BAE, and $8.5M in salary, and tax, in the Wes Johnson example, for a 1st round pick. You can get a 1st round pick much cheaper than that. That is malpractice in the basketball sense.

There is no rule in trading consecutive 1st round picks, just consecutive future 1st round picks, so once the draft was over, Minn was free to trade this years pick.

[Bruteque]

Does someone have a source that we could have traded any of Brewer, CJ or Kyle for a first round pick? That seem extremely hard to believe. Those guys have since been proven to be worth jack.

I know of trades that would have returned a 1st for both Korver and Watson that were rejected because the Bulls would have had to take back a one year contract and didn't want to add the salary.

It's misleading to think of 1-year bad contracts as assets. The asset is actually the team's willingness to take on worse salary. The 1-year bad contract merely serves as the mechanism to make use of that asset, with the asset being the team's willingness to take on worse salary.

The Bulls don't have that asset to begin with. Without it, 1-year bad contracts are just buggers you send away a 1st to get rid of.

[babblin-on]

That was my point. He'll opt out. I had bad information on Courtney Lee. My bad. I thought he signed a one year deal.

Maybe Mayo will, I thinks it's fairly likely. As I explained in more detail earlier though, I still think it will be harder to acquire him next summer, and that he'll bring less value to the team if he's acquired for 13-14' than if we had 12-13' to acclimate him to the system and culture.

Regardless:

Sorry, but nothing this team has done indicates to me that they're looking to compete in 13-14. What do you perceive as a move they've made this summer that furthers that goal?

Come on now. The fact that, contrary to many realgm message board urgings, the Bulls did not dump Deng, Noah, Boozer, etc., for hope and prayer lottery picks clearly evidences that they intend to retain the core to compete and contend in 2013-14. The additional moves that will facilitate that contention will be made at the trade deadline or next summer. This is obvious.

Well, in regards to Boozer, I think if there had been a chance to dump him for lotto picks the Bulls would've taken it, and I would not have faulted them for that, because it would open the possibility of getting a good young contributor on a cheap deal and greatly improve the team's flexibility.

As for Deng, well, depending on whether you believe the rumors, the reason he wasn't moved for a lotto pick is because such a move wasn't available that would also result in immediately saving money. But let's say those rumors were false, I think keeping him and Noah really only indicates that they're not tanking, not that they're willing to make the additional moves expenditures to build the team back up to the point where it'll contend as strongly as they have the past 2 years. That doesn't mean for sure they won't make those moves, but I do think that to truly contend in 13-14 they'll have to make the type of financial commitment they just had their bench mob fire sale to avoid. And they have less flexibility to make those moves with the much smaller contracts of Bellinelli, Nazr, and Radman.

[BullsFTW]

So Harden is available for an extension this summer. Any possibility negotiations between OKC and Harden goes sour? I understand OKC has stated they will keep him, but will they elect to offer him the max? If they do, they still need to sign Ibaka and then this will hinder their ability to sign others FA's. Contract negotiations between the two could possibly break down.

Next year he'll be a RFA, if OKC decides not to offer the max contract, and we somehow clear cap space by trading Boozer and Deng for expirings, maybe we can work out a S&T with OKC. Mirotic (who OKC likes) + Bobcats Pick for a newly signed Harden. Also, he can make it to 2014 w/out an extension and then he'll be a UFA. Then we can sign him out right. But Presti is not that naive...right?

Edit: If there's a possibility Harden can be had through S&T, the Bulls will probably be able to keep Deng as long as Boozer is traded, since they have $5M TPE.

Deng/Gibson/Noah/Harden/Rose in 2013-2014