#1 Highest Peak of All Time (Jordan '91 wins)

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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#201 » by Vinsanity420 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:20 pm

That was a nice post from Elgee on Wilt's pace adjusted numbers a couple pages back. I would argue his raw numbers can be a given pass for, considering how historically great the '67 76ers were. And I felt like Dipper's cool injury post was somewhat lost in the shuffle as well -

You had to be there to appreciate it . . . the way Hal Greer and Wally Jones ran and shot on battered knees; the way Wilt Chamberlain played the middle with a volcano in his stomach and an injured toe shot full of needles; the way Johnny Green kept hustling although long past the point of exhaustion; the way Luke Jackson, Chet Walker and Matt Goukas played their guts out despite assorted injuries.


Pollack ticked off some of the cases, which read like a medical diary:

-Wilt Chamberlain (partial tear of the calf muscle in his right leg, a strain in his right thigh and an injured right toe):

-Wally Jones (injured knee cartilage):

-Luke Jackson (pulled hamstring muscle):

-Hal Greer (bursitus in his right knee):

-And, Billy Cunningham (broken right wrist).

"That's not mentioning (rookie) Jim Reid who had a knee operation after injuring it the first game of the season," said Pollack, "and Larry Costello," the veteran guard who tore an ankle tendon after one-third of the season was gone.

The most recent injury was to Chamberlain in Friday night's Eastern Division playoff contest with the Celtics. The dipper was given whirlpool treatments for the calf muscle tear, but Pollack wasn't sure how he'd respond.


This kinda thing causes chemistry/team synergy problems, simply put. It sounds almost like a Clipper or Blazer bad luck on injuries. Wilt still seemed to have GOAT type of impact this year, though, mainly because his D was better. It's odd. I see Wilt being capable of playing out of the world defense, offense, everything, but he never really does it all at once despite having monstrous levels of stamina.

That assist post makes me frown, though. Some would argue that he's being a great competitor by chasing it, but it really makes me wonder if he didn't maximize his offensive value at times because he was looking to rack up his assist totals. This has been somewhat of an issue with him for his entire career... much like the scoring title chase or the 50+ point games or the play all 48 minutes game chase he had in his career. You have to wonder at times how much that really benefited/hurt the team he played for.

Vote: Michael Jordan '91

I just feel safer going with MJ as GOAT for the moment. Wilt might be #2 or #3, but it doesn't really matter, since the exact number he's at is irrelevant... the fact that we extensively discussed his peak in the #1 thread says enough about his peak greatness.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#202 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:05 pm

ardee wrote:
Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html


1971 was probably not even Kareem's own best year.... That should go to '76 or '77.


It's a tough call which was his best year to be honest. At this point probably makes more sense to talk about how I see Kareem.

First off, on my GOAT list for career, I rank Kareem 3rd behind Russell and Jordan. Probably gives you a picture there. Unless you see Kareem as quite erratic, pretty good chance he'll show up for me in this project after both of those guys.

I think it's very helpful to watch him against Walton, and ask: Does he do anything as well as Walton other than shoot?

That is meant to be a bit of a damning statement, but I do think it reads too harsh, because the thing is: Walton is unreal at everything except shooting, and Kareem's shooting is God-like. It's very possible to agree with my above statement but rank Kareem's peak ahead of Walton.

But what about Wilt? When Wilt is on in '67, can you just about say the same stuff about him? I do have one or two doubts about his passing ability generally, but there's doubt it worked like crazy in '67 and that the threat of him scoring was quite impactful as well, and this is a man who's strength and explosiveness quite clearly surpasses Kareem. There were times where Kareem looked quite clearly like he wasn't the strongest man on the court, and that was a problem. I've never heard anyone ever say that of Wilt.

So yeah, among the bigs, peak-wise, I'm probably putting Wilt, Shaq, and Russell ahead of Kareem. Hakeem & Walton could have arguments as well.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#203 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:22 pm

So, here's where I am right now: I've given the 3 primary guys on my mind (Shaq, Jordan, and Wilt) and I've thrown down gauntlets a couple times to have someone come back and thoroughly destroy any notion of weakness I'm thinking I may be seeing. The truth is, I have a real tough time separating out these guys, so I'm going to stick my finger in the electrical socket again:

In '00, Shaq's Lakers were the best defense in the league and Bill Walton called him the best defensive player in the league. He finished 2nd in DPOY to a guy (Zo) whose defense would improve the following year despite his health struggles causing him to hardly play.

Do you think Shaq should have won DPOY?
Do you think at his best he was flat out the best defensive player in the world?

How do you think his defensive impact measured out against Wilt '67 where he seemed to be not at his greatest defensive focus?

Pivoting...

One of the beliefs I have that I've said a lot over the years is that in general, your most impactful offensive players will be perimeter players (and on defense it will be the bigs). APM studies bear this out in dramatic fashion as far as general tendencies, and logically it just makes sense every time you see a team struggling to get a big the ball in a place where he can operate.

That statement though made more than one person ask (including myself), "but what about Shaq?" We know he was a dominant scorer, who seemed to get more dominant on his way to titles. We also know that when we look at those APM studies, we're talking about the field of mortals not superstars. It's debatable whether we have anyone of Patrick Ewing's offensive caliber around today, and the gap between Shaq's scoring and Ewing's scoring is astounding by any measure.

We now have APM data going back to '02, and what we find is that Shaq dominates in the offensive studies. This same tool that tells us that bigs are not for offense in general, is telling us that Shaq was the premier offensive player in the league in '02 & '03, which of course wasn't his peak.

All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#204 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:28 pm

mysticbb wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:One has the validity edge, the other has the reliability edge, I feel I need to use both.


APM does not have the edge in terms of validity. And as I pointed out before, we have RAPM instead, clearly better than APM. 2yr APM has some value, also because it is available easily via basketballvalue.com, but that's about it.


Okay two things:

1) Can you explain why APM doesn't have a validity edge compared to box score based metrics?

2) When I talk about APM vs box score stats, this is not meant as a preference for APM over RAPM. I'm talking about a family of statistics here, and the reasons why Regularized APM is orthogonal to box score are of course the same reasons why APM is orthogonal to box score. Perhaps you'd rather I just call the family +/- instead of APM?
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#205 » by PTB Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:45 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ardee wrote:
Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html


1971 was probably not even Kareem's own best year.... That should go to '76 or '77.


It's a tough call which was his best year to be honest. At this point probably makes more sense to talk about how I see Kareem.

First off, on my GOAT list for career, I rank Kareem 3rd behind Russell and Jordan. Probably gives you a picture there. Unless you see Kareem as quite erratic, pretty good chance he'll show up for me in this project after both of those guys.

I think it's very helpful to watch him against Walton, and ask: Does he do anything as well as Walton other than shoot?

That is meant to be a bit of a damning statement, but I do think it reads too harsh, because the thing is: Walton is unreal at everything except shooting, and Kareem's shooting is God-like. It's very possible to agree with my above statement but rank Kareem's peak ahead of Walton.


It's an interesting comparison. Walton did find a way to make a positive impact in Portland's surprising sweep. I guess you could someone could try and argue for Walton, however IMO Kareem was better in that series. He beat him in most stats category, carried the Lakers on offense better and was almost equally good defensively.

Kareem was on a god level though.. he had a 40/17 performance in Game 2 but LA didn't have anyone to match the Blazers in the back court and they lost. They just outrun them.. drop the ball to Walton at the high post, make a cut and Bill will find you. That was the way they played all series long and won.

I'm glad that the Blazers won though :D
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#206 » by PTB Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:51 pm

One thing is interesting here.. Jordan has an edge, yet he's been least discussed here. Nonetheless, it's a matter of how you define greatness here that will in the end make you chose one guy, and to be honest, they can go in any order.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#207 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:59 pm

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lsh01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

Kareem scored more points on higher FG% than Shaq

Collected mor rebounds than Shaq ..
Avg more points per game in the regular season
Had a high TS%

Hmm don't see how Shaq is better
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#208 » by C-izMe » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:27 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:So, here's where I am right now: I've given the 3 primary guys on my mind (Shaq, Jordan, and Wilt) and I've thrown down gauntlets a couple times to have someone come back and thoroughly destroy any notion of weakness I'm thinking I may be seeing. The truth is, I have a real tough time separating out these guys, so I'm going to stick my finger in the electrical socket again:

In '00, Shaq's Lakers were the best defense in the league and Bill Walton called him the best defensive player in the league. He finished 2nd in DPOY to a guy (Zo) whose defense would improve the following year despite his health struggles causing him to hardly play.

Do you think Shaq should have won DPOY?
Do you think at his best he was flat out the best defensive player in the world?

How do you think his defensive impact measured out against Wilt '67 where he seemed to be not at his greatest defensive focus?

Pivoting...

One of the beliefs I have that I've said a lot over the years is that in general, your most impactful offensive players will be perimeter players (and on defense it will be the bigs). APM studies bear this out in dramatic fashion as far as general tendencies, and logically it just makes sense every time you see a team struggling to get a big the ball in a place where he can operate.

That statement though made more than one person ask (including myself), "but what about Shaq?" We know he was a dominant scorer, who seemed to get more dominant on his way to titles. We also know that when we look at those APM studies, we're talking about the field of mortals not superstars. It's debatable whether we have anyone of Patrick Ewing's offensive caliber around today, and the gap between Shaq's scoring and Ewing's scoring is astounding by any measure.

We now have APM data going back to '02, and what we find is that Shaq dominates in the offensive studies. This same tool that tells us that bigs are not for offense in general, is telling us that Shaq was the premier offensive player in the league in '02 & '03, which of course wasn't his peak.

All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?

This is how I feel. If it came down to just regular season it would be Shaq easily IMO. But his PS run isn't top 5 IMO (just outside). That's what makes this hard.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#209 » by JordansBulls » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:33 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?


Not sure how you can say Shaq was the best defensive player in the world as well when he wasn't even 1st team all defense that year in 2000. MJ was and Wilt well the all defensive team didnt exist at the time.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#210 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:51 pm

I didnt read that as Doc saying he was--I think Doc was trying to get some opinions to the matter. We all know all-defensive teams tend to run like Gold Gloves. Reputation often goes further than actual performance in any given year. Let some people comment on it--I think thats all Doc is asking for.

edit: take this year where Tyson is DPOY but isnt first team all-defense. Cant let those be the only gauge.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#211 » by C-izMe » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:54 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?


Not sure how you can say Shaq was the best defensive player in the world as well when he wasn't even 1st team all defense that year in 2000. MJ was and Wilt well the all defensive team didnt exist at the time.

He was at least the second best in he world. Just like Wilt was second (or even third). And MJ was being ranked with guards. Being the best defensive guard doesn't make you the best defender.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#212 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:54 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?


Not sure how you can say Shaq was the best defensive player in the world as well when he wasn't even 1st team all defense that year in 2000. MJ was and Wilt well the all defensive team didnt exist at the time.

Very true. Shaq defense was never elite if the reward is based off rep than shaq has no excuse.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#213 » by C-izMe » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:02 pm

Josephpaul wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

Kareem scored more points on higher FG% than Shaq

Collected mor rebounds than Shaq ..
Avg more points per game in the regular season
Had a high TS%

Hmm don't see how Shaq is better

71 isn't even his 3rd best year. 72 ,76, 77 are better. Forget about adjusting for the many more possessions Kareem played (which would drop his scoring well under Shaq's). Looking at the numbers we have Kareem was a worse rebounder, way worse passer, and he was definetly a worse defender. He also had a worse all around PS and played with the second best PG ever. 71 Kareem wouldn't rank top 20 IMO.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#214 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:04 pm

Can't be serious . Kareem was better rebounder numbers don't lie..
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#215 » by C-izMe » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:31 pm

They don't.

Kareem - 18.9TRB% (19.2TRB% PS)
Shaq - 19.3TRB% (20.4TRB% PS)
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#216 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:39 pm

JordansBulls wrote:Not sure how you can say Shaq was the best defensive player in the world as well when he wasn't even 1st team all defense that year in 2000. MJ was and Wilt well the all defensive team didnt exist at the time.
How can we say that Tyson Chandler or Kevin Garnett were the best defenders last year if they didn't even make the first team? How can we have Mutombo as DPOY in 95 if he couldn't even beat out Robinson in all-defense team voting?
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#217 » by ElGee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:33 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question


I don't agree with this. These last few posts have really made it clear to me why I'm viewing 67 Wilt as slightly below these guys. Here's the rub:

-People view volume scoring Wilt as awesome. (I've made it fairly clear why I don't agree with this.)
-People view 67 Wilt as an upgrade from volume scoring Wilt.
-As a result, people think "Awesome Wilt Upgrade? Must be God-Like Wilt!"

Obviously, I don't see the evidence for this, so the conclusion is faulty based on the premise.

So when you (Doc) say it's fair to say Wilt was the best offensive player in the world, I disagree. Jerry West (definitely, injury aside) and Oscar Robertson (probably) seem like guys still having more impact on offense. Now, if you have Wilt's season in that high regard that you think it's better than West on offense...I'd ask you why??

As I've said, the 76ers were a plenty capable offensive team without Chamberlain. Probably average at worst. The 68 Lakers were in all likelihood a BETTER offensive team with Jerry West than the 67 76ers. How do you explain this?

Then someone brought up Walton, and I'd to have ask how people think Walton and Wilt differ on offense. Both are high-post hub type players. No offense to Wilt, but I'll take Walton as an outlet passer over almost anyone. He's a better shooter. A better passer. Wilt is far stronger as a scorer closer to the hoop, and that counts for a lot, but in 67 there's almost a similar mold to what Walton was doing...only Wilt was surrounded by really good offensive players. And do I think Walton has a higher bball IQ and better "feel" and fits in in more places than Wilt (obviously he won't always have Portland-level impact)? Yes, because again, what's the evidence suggesting otherwise?

With all that said, it's not clear which peak is better between Wilt and Walton to me. (For the record, I have Wilt's offense as better but Walton's D as better.) For now, I'll be voting Wilt in first because of health...but that's about it.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#218 » by An Unbiased Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:43 pm

C-izMe wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
All of this seems to say then that it's quite fair to say that really all 3 of the guys I'm talking about (Shaq, Jordan, Wilt) were the best offensive player in the world in their year in question, but coming full circle, was Shaq the only one of the 3 who was the best defensive player in the world too?


Not sure how you can say Shaq was the best defensive player in the world as well when he wasn't even 1st team all defense that year in 2000. MJ was and Wilt well the all defensive team didnt exist at the time.

He was at least the second best in he world. Just like Wilt was second (or even third). And MJ was being ranked with guards. Being the best defensive guard doesn't make you the best defender.

Shaq really wasn't the 2nd best defender in 2000 though. I think people look at LA's #1 DRtg, and attribute it to Shaq, when it was more about that whole rotation.

It's a bit strange to see the DPOY voting used when Eddie Jones was tied for #3 that year with Deke at 11 votes. Defense is not something I want the media voting on, but rather the coaches. The All-D team seems more reliable, and there you have guys like Payton, Duncan, KG, and even Shaq's very own teammate on the 1st team. Was Shaq really a better defender than these guys in 2000? I mean what great offensive centers were even in the NBA by 2000. If he were running around the court giving great help D like Dwight does, then I could see it, but shutting down old versions of Vlade, Longley, Sabonis, Smits.....just doesn't quite compare to MJ checking quality offensive perimeter/impact players.

It should be noted that Shaq didn't guard great offensive PFs either, while guys like Zo/Deke did. Shaq didn't check TD in the RS, nor did he guard Webber or Sheed in the PS. I don't want it to seem like I'm ragging on the guy because I really thought he was great that year, but the reality is that he had a rather easy time with the crop of centers he faced.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#219 » by C-izMe » Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:34 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Shaq really wasn't the 2nd best defender in 2000 though. I think people look at LA's #1 DRtg, and attribute it to Shaq, when it was more about that whole rotation.

It's a bit strange to see the DPOY voting used when Eddie Jones was tied for #3 that year with Deke at 11 votes. Defense is not something I want the media voting on, but rather the coaches. The All-D team seems more reliable, and there you have guys like Payton, Duncan, KG, and even Shaq's very own teammate on the 1st team. Was Shaq really a better defender than these guys in 2000? I mean what great offensive centers were even in the NBA by 2000. If he were running around the court giving great help D like Dwight does, then I could see it, but shutting down old versions of Vlade, Longley, Sabonis, Smits.....just doesn't quite compare to MJ checking quality offensive perimeter/impact players.

It should be noted that Shaq didn't guard great offensive PFs either, while guys like Zo/Deke did. Shaq didn't check TD in the RS, nor did he guard Webber or Sheed in the PS. I don't want it to seem like I'm ragging on the guy because I really thought he was great that year, but the reality is that he had a rather easy time with the crop of centers he faced.

To be honest I don't trust either All D or DPOY but your reasoning is off. Shaq was second team behind the best defender that year in a position where only one person makes it. Saying that Kobe, Duncan, and KG was voted first team and Shaq wasn't just proves that they were top 2 at their positions. Shaq's second team proves the exact same thing and he's also at center (not SG) and led the top ranked defense. And rebounding/keeping people out the paint by just being there made their defense better. He couldn't run around the court like Dwight but he could defend the area around the basket amazingly when he felt like it.
He also didn't guard the best PF because they needed their 7-2 325+ center in the paint. Makes sense to me.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#220 » by therealbig3 » Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:20 am

Ok, I'm not kidding when I say this:

If Jordan and Shaq can be argued over Wilt because their offense was so good...what about 09 LeBron?

I don't see how anyone can overlook how dominant he was (and still is) offensively, and he is a great defensive player too...his defensive impact for a wing is huge.

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