#2 Highest Peak of All Time (Shaq '00 wins)

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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#61 » by C-izMe » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:34 pm

drza wrote:
C-izMe wrote:And if you want to talk about relative to the league Shaq was the best offensive player and a serious candidate for the best defensive player in the game that year. Who else can say they've done that?


I'd say that Hakeem, Robinson, KG, Wilt, Kareem, and perhaps LeBron are guys off the top of my head that might have had an argument for that in a given season.

Hakeem - Has a legit argument
Robinson - Did you just say best OFFENSIVE player? No argument at all.
KG - Never had a real argument for he's offensive player.
Wilt - Defensively wasn't better than Russell or Thurmond. Offensively was better than Oscar/West only in 67.
Kareem - I hope someone posts it but someone has written a post about his overrated defense a while back that comes up commonly.
Lebron - No. Isn't the best defender at his position so definetly not best in the league.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#62 » by ardee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:34 pm

ElGee wrote:vote: Shaquille O'Neal 2000

It's a pretty clear vote to me for reasons I've outlined. Since there's a deadline up on the thread, I'll try and discuss some of the other players later. First, let me address some misinformation by a poster who has a habit of this garbage in these projects.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1198314&start=105&p=32874661&view=show#p32874661

Unbiased Fan wrote:There's a huge problem with this train of thought.

1) In 2000, the Lakers had Glen Rice along with Kobe. So while Kobe was hurt, they still had a good scorer to fill some of that void.

And while the did start they year 11-4 without Kobe, you forgot to factor in SOS. Only 3 of those wins came against an opponent with a SRS above 0.


I will admit it bothers me to have to address someone who thinks he can easily beat Michael Jordan in a game of 1-on-1 when he was an NBA all-star
. So if I come across as harsh, I assure you it's merely impatience.

When you say" I forgot to factor in SOS," you are simply 100% wrong. I have no idea what would cause someone to boldly claim YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG!!! without even checking what they are wrong about in the first place. SRS includes SOS. Do you not know this?


I'm really sorry, Unbiased Fan, we're both massive Kobe supporters, I like your arguments and the way you present them, but....

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#63 » by drza » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:40 pm

colts18 wrote:
drza wrote:
colts18 wrote:Why are we talking about Russell's +10 defensive impact and completely ignoring the fact that he is a negative on offense?


Because it hasn't been brought up or shown yet. If Russell's a negative on offense, put some logic/numbers to it. In my last post I argued that Russell's defensive impact may have been bigger than Wilt's combo of offense/defense by itself. Can you demonstrate that Russell's offense is a big enough negative to counter his super-sized defense?


In 1965, he scored 12.5% of his teams points and had a -0.7 TS%. That is the equivalent of 12.0 PPG and .525 TS% in today's game. So the comparables to today's game would be Conley, Bellinelli, Bass, Nelson, West. The Celtics offense was -3.4 (8th out of 9) in 1965.


Right, but the argument here isn't whether Russell is a big positive on offense (that could be an interesting debate, but for the sake of this vote I'm not sure it matters). The argument is whether Russell was actually an offensive NEGATIVE, big enough to overcome that his defensive impact may have been bigger than the offense/defense combined of other greats.

And what you posted here doesn't suggest that at all. First of all, you listed a bunch of guards and two jump-shooting PFs. None of them are really comparable to Russell's role. And of the one's you mentioned, Conley finished among the top-15 in the NBA in offensive RAPM, West finished with a solid positive mark in the regular season and led the postseason in on/off +/-, Nelson finished with an even more solid positive mark on offense in RAPM; Belinelli finished as a net zero on offense, and only Bass had a net negative score in offensive RAPM.

Extrapolating a bit, of the 5 examples that you gave, the 3 that had positive scores were also involved in the passing aspect of their team's offense. Bellinelli and Bass are the two least involved in that aspect, and they are the two that scored the worst in terms of offensive impact. Russell, on the other hand, finished top-5 in the NBA in assists in 1965 so clearly he was a passing hub on the squad.

Bottom line: seems unlikely that Russell was a huge negative on offense. Meanwhile, his defensive impact still dwarfed the two-way impact of (perhaps) every other player.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#64 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:47 pm

ardee wrote:
I'm really sorry, Unbiased Fan, we're both massive Kobe supporters, I like your arguments and the way you present them, but....

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Not so fast my friend, I think you're underrating my offensive/defensive peak. :lol:
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#65 » by colts18 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:01 pm

drza wrote:Right, but the argument here isn't whether Russell is a big positive on offense (that could be an interesting debate, but for the sake of this vote I'm not sure it matters). The argument is whether Russell was actually an offensive NEGATIVE, big enough to overcome that his defensive impact may have been bigger than the offense/defense combined of other greats.

And what you posted here doesn't suggest that at all. First of all, you listed a bunch of guards and two jump-shooting PFs. None of them are really comparable to Russell's role. And of the one's you mentioned, Conley finished among the top-15 in the NBA in offensive RAPM, West finished with a solid positive mark in the regular season and led the postseason in on/off +/-, Nelson finished with an even more solid positive mark on offense in RAPM; Belinelli finished as a net zero on offense, and only Bass had a net negative score in offensive RAPM.

Extrapolating a bit, of the 5 examples that you gave, the 3 that had positive scores were also involved in the passing aspect of their team's offense. Bellinelli and Bass are the two least involved in that aspect, and they are the two that scored the worst in terms of offensive impact. Russell, on the other hand, finished top-5 in the NBA in assists in 1965 so clearly he was a passing hub on the squad.

Bottom line: seems unlikely that Russell was a huge negative on offense. Meanwhile, his defensive impact still dwarfed the two-way impact of (perhaps) every other player.

Russell's passing is overrated. He had a 14.8 AST% that season. Marshon Brooks was at 14.6 AST% last season with a 2.3 AST/game average. What exactly is special about a big man averaging 2.3-2.5 AST/game. Why would you want to have an offensive hub around an inefficient big man? That's why they were -3 that season on offense. No one on REALGM is praising Rondo for being the offensive hub of a mediocre offense similar to Russell's with HOF supporting cast. yet we are going to praise Russell's offense. At best he was average.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#66 » by MisterWestside » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:06 pm

And of the one's you mentioned, Conley finished among the top-15 in the NBA in offensive RAPM, West finished with a solid positive mark in the regular season and led the postseason in on/off +/-, Nelson finished with an even more solid positive mark on offense in RAPM; Belinelli finished as a net zero on offense, and only Bass had a net negative score in offensive RAPM.


While I agree with your main point about Russell, I wouldn't put those players amongst the league's top players on offense.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#67 » by drza » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:13 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
And of the one's you mentioned, Conley finished among the top-15 in the NBA in offensive RAPM, West finished with a solid positive mark in the regular season and led the postseason in on/off +/-, Nelson finished with an even more solid positive mark on offense in RAPM; Belinelli finished as a net zero on offense, and only Bass had a net negative score in offensive RAPM.


While I agree with your main point about Russell, I wouldn't put those players amongst the league's top players on offense.


I didn't. He listed those 5 players as examples of "Russell-like" offensive players who would presumably be big offensive negatives, and I noted that one of them had a good finish in offensive RAPM, 2 of them were reasonable net positive (1 of which had a good postseason run), one was essentially a net zero, and the other was a net negative. That's the extent of my mentioning of those players.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#68 » by drza » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:15 pm

colts18 wrote:
drza wrote:Right, but the argument here isn't whether Russell is a big positive on offense (that could be an interesting debate, but for the sake of this vote I'm not sure it matters). The argument is whether Russell was actually an offensive NEGATIVE, big enough to overcome that his defensive impact may have been bigger than the offense/defense combined of other greats.

And what you posted here doesn't suggest that at all. First of all, you listed a bunch of guards and two jump-shooting PFs. None of them are really comparable to Russell's role. And of the one's you mentioned, Conley finished among the top-15 in the NBA in offensive RAPM, West finished with a solid positive mark in the regular season and led the postseason in on/off +/-, Nelson finished with an even more solid positive mark on offense in RAPM; Belinelli finished as a net zero on offense, and only Bass had a net negative score in offensive RAPM.

Extrapolating a bit, of the 5 examples that you gave, the 3 that had positive scores were also involved in the passing aspect of their team's offense. Bellinelli and Bass are the two least involved in that aspect, and they are the two that scored the worst in terms of offensive impact. Russell, on the other hand, finished top-5 in the NBA in assists in 1965 so clearly he was a passing hub on the squad.

Bottom line: seems unlikely that Russell was a huge negative on offense. Meanwhile, his defensive impact still dwarfed the two-way impact of (perhaps) every other player.

Russell's passing is overrated. He had a 14.8 AST% that season. Marshon Brooks was at 14.6 AST% last season with a 2.3 AST/game average. What exactly is special about a big man averaging 2.3-2.5 AST/game. Why would you want to have an offensive hub around an inefficient big man? That's why they were -3 that season on offense. No one on REALGM is praising Rondo for being the offensive hub of a mediocre offense similar to Russell's with HOF supporting cast. yet we are going to praise Russell's offense. At best he was average.


And again...you're not addressing the point. Russell's defense was super-sized. In order for his offense to matter, it would have to be so bad that it was hurting his team to an extent to cancel out his defense. You haven't addressed or even hinted at anything like that yet. If you feel Russell's offense is average at best, cool...his defense still puts him firmly in the conversation for GOAT peak.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#69 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:18 pm

With Shaq and MJ in my rear view, I'll move on to the players I see as the next immediate candidates and address some of what is being said about them:

Bill Russell and Wilt: As of right now, he's my next vote. I suppose it makes sense then to compare him to Wilt, who as I have mentioned I apparently view quite differently than most. I've seen posters, like Dipper, reference that Wilt would have been better in the future. If you have so boldly chosen to enter the world of "how would these guys do in ANY time or TODAY?" then by all means I agree. I've said many times I think this method is so unclear it borders on silly, but if that's how one values this project then I understand (reluctantly).

IF, on the other hand, you are like me and feel we can only judge what a guy did relative to his league that year, then what is your evidence for valuing the impact of Wilt and Russell? I've outlined, in great detail, how I see the 1967 Wilt season independent of all other candidates in this project. When I then stack him up against each other, Wilt falls behind MJ, Shaq and even Russell (and maybe Bird and Magic -- talk about them next post).

WIth Wilt, I always feel like I'm higher on his defense than everyone and lower on his offense. And in 67, people are just talking about his offensive season in a way I can't get behind. SELL ME -- why do you view his offense so highly?? (Don't use isolated raw stats.)

Now, in 67 he's operating differently, but then people need to think how much credit should Wilt be getting for this? He's on a really good offensive team, and while the results are their best in history to that point basically, they aren't on order of what we see from Russell's defenses or Magic's offenses. So I'm wondering why people hold this season so highly on offense. Consider...

Jerry West's Lakers probably DID have the best offensive results with him on the court during this decade, and that's something people should really understand if they are going to use the team ORtgs as ballparks to start judging the highest impact players. In 1968, the very next year Jerry West missed 30 games:

1968 SRS IN 8.1
1968 SRS OUT -0.5

If we assume a constant pace, the Lakers ORtg with West in the game would have been 106.3, 4 points better than the 67 76ers and +8.7 to the league. Most teams plays faster with their stars (especially star guards), so I don't think that's a likely occurrence. Let's assume that LA played a 120 pace with West and 114 without him.

ORtg Estimation
1968 w West: 104.3 (+7.4)
1968 w/out West: 100.6 (+3.7)

By comparison, the 67 76ers were +5.3 in ORtg (102.3 ORtg).

So in the very next season, there's a team in LA led by someone who yes, I feel is definitely a better offensive player than Wilt (Jerry West), and another good offensive player in Elgin Baylor (plus Clark and Goodrich) and they are clearly doing comparable, if not better things on offense than Philly. Do we know that they didn't sacrifice defense to push the offense? No...but with West in the game they nearly had the same SRS as the 67 76ers (!), so this doesn't seem like something we should be overly concerned with. (Note the 68 Lakers PS performance: With Goodrich being a non-factor in the Finals, they were outscored by 6 pts in 6 games, including a 120-117 OT loss in a pivotal G5.)

Now, people look at Bill Russell's Celtics DRtgs (peaking at -11) and instantly want to give Russell the lion's share of the credit. I think we all agree, based on

(a) video
(b) reports
(c) stats

That he should get the bulk of the share. But you have to consider what ORtg/DRtg measures and if there is any tradeoff ever. It makes a big difference if you say "Boston was like 8 net points a game better because of their defense)" -- you are giving back some of the credit to scheme -- and 11 points because of the defense.

For me, I need to establish some baseline ballpark the team would function at without Russell on defense. Do they still play the same scheme? What does a "replacement" center at the time provide? I personally side toward something around even or slightly better (I think the C's would have been a decent defensive team, with Red, KC Jones and Satch Sanders...and obviously they would need a decent big). And yes, if you add up that credit and give it to Russell, you are matching nearly any player's OVERALL peak in my numerical estimations. That's exactly why Boston had such a huge margin of error, why they won 8 in a row, and why Russell was so dominant in his time period IMO.

And lord no I don't think peak Bill Russell was a negative on offense. What would you think a replacement center during that time period would look like? If there are 16-20 active centers in the league, and you are consistently on the top-5, what is your impression of 60's centers offensively???
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#70 » by drza » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:20 pm

C-izMe wrote:
drza wrote:
C-izMe wrote:And if you want to talk about relative to the league Shaq was the best offensive player and a serious candidate for the best defensive player in the game that year. Who else can say they've done that?


I'd say that Hakeem, Robinson, KG, Wilt, Kareem, and perhaps LeBron are guys off the top of my head that might have had an argument for that in a given season.

Hakeem - Has a legit argument
Robinson - Did you just say best OFFENSIVE player? No argument at all.
KG - Never had a real argument for he's offensive player.
Wilt - Defensively wasn't better than Russell or Thurmond. Offensively was better than Oscar/West only in 67.
Kareem - I hope someone posts it but someone has written a post about his overrated defense a while back that comes up commonly.
Lebron - No. Isn't the best defender at his position so definetly not best in the league.


Listed several players off the top of my head that could probably be argued. I'm not going to make all the arguments, but these are all players among the leading scorers in the league that by different metrics (DPoY votes, advanced stats, etc.) had arguments among the best defenders. I think that's all that's required to deserve a mention.

As for KG (who I will very likely be making arguments for in this project), in 2004 he:

*Led the entire NBA in points scored
*Tied for 2nd in the NBA in points/game
*Led a top-5 offense in the NBA
*Led the NBA in PER (a heavily offensive-based stat)
*Was 2nd in the NBA in offensive win shares
*Led the NBA in offensive RAPM

What exactly is required to have "a real argument for he's an offensive player"?
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#71 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:21 pm

colts18 wrote:
drza wrote:
colts18 wrote:Why are we talking about Russell's +10 defensive impact and completely ignoring the fact that he is a negative on offense?


Because it hasn't been brought up or shown yet. If Russell's a negative on offense, put some logic/numbers to it. In my last post I argued that Russell's defensive impact may have been bigger than Wilt's combo of offense/defense by itself. Can you demonstrate that Russell's offense is a big enough negative to counter his super-sized defense?


In 1965, he scored 12.5% of his teams points and had a -0.7 TS%. That is the equivalent of 12.0 PPG and .525 TS% in today's game. So the comparables to today's game would be Conley, Bellinelli, Bass, Nelson, West. The Celtics offense was -3.4 (8th out of 9) in 1965.


And so you must think that 1967 is a Tyson Chandler type offensive player by this logic, right?
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#72 » by ronnymac2 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:36 pm

drza wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:As somebody who isn't voting but hopes Shaq gets in at number 2 and thinks many of the criticisms of him in this thread are crap, I want to say that LeBron James, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar all have arguments for having the GOAT peak. They are above everybody else.

Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Bill Walton, and Julius Erving never were superior peak players then those nine GOAT players (the eight I mentioned above and Jordan).

Of the players coming up, the one I want to hear about most is Larry Bird. I'll wait until the conversation about him heats up though.


Lol. I know you're not voting, but isn't this post exactly what you just criticized someone for doing in your previous post? This is a lot of opinion, with nothing to really say why. I certainly see folks in that second group with arguments above some in that first group.


If you know I'm not voting...


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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#73 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:46 pm

Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.

Of course, most people consider 86 Bird's peak -- not sure how much they differentiate on offense but defensively he was a better team defender still. Well, McHale missed 17 games that year as well and the Celtics were a 110 (+3.1) offense during that time...and a +9.6 SRS team. Scott Wedman replaced McHale in the starting lineup and they just slid Bird to PF. What did Bird do there?

Averaged 27-12-8 57.4% TS 3.1 TOV 7.8 FTA/g 2.1 stls and 0.8 blks in those games. Ho hum stuff.

Now, you can see where the 87 Lakers offense parks itself in the playoffs: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/12/19/the ... ince-1980/ Right near the top of the 3-pt era at +10.5. For comparison, the 86 Celtics were +8.2 and the 85 Celtics were +8.5.

In short, I believe these to be the best passers AND two best offensive players in NBA history.

Bird is perhaps the highest portable offensive player there is: he's a GOAT-level off-the-ball player, not in the Reggie Miller mold, but ITO of movement and position through the post and out onto the wing for spacing. He's a ridiculously good rebounder because of this. He's a GOAT-level outlet passer if you want to run. He's a GOAT-level trailer in semi-transition. He's a great post player. He's great off picks. His passing is freakish. He can clearly flourish at either forward position. At his peak, he's still giving you quality defense with positioning and defensive rebounding (it wanes as his body wears down IMO).

For Magic, you give him the keys to the car and get out of the way. Although early Magic's career demonstrates how powerful his GOAT-level passing can be even when Norm Nixon was still handling the ball more. Peak Magic -- unarguably 1987 -- developed his shot so well that he was a major treat to score from the outside and from the line. People have a misconception that Magic was a transition-only offensive threat ("Showtime"), but he was deadly in the halfcourt because of his use of screens and mismatches against smaller players. He is virtually un-guardable, calls his own number efficiently and like Bird, it seems as if he can drop into any system and help "run" the offense.

Mostly due to shot selection, I consider Magic's offensive peak to slightly higher than Bird's. The defensive difference (Magic is a minor liability) makes the peaks very hard for to distinguish. I'll be looking for arguments to help me decide one way or another (do people have these peaks clearly separated in their minds??)

KAJ: A quick note here because I just don't seem him as having a GOAT-level peak. (Note, I have KAJ 3rd all-time on my GOAT list.) Really, what kind of evidence do people have that his peak is better than Walton's? If you are considering answering by posting H2H or 1-on-1 stats, you need to really think about basketball as more than a 1-on-1 game and really need to be thinking about what is being measured by these stats.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#74 » by colts18 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:57 pm

ElGee wrote:And so you must think that 1967 is a Tyson Chandler type offensive player by this logic, right?


To a certain extent yes. Wilt got his efficiency up partly because he stopped shooting.

Wilt 67: 11.2 FGA/36 minutes
Russell career: 11.4 FGA/36 minutes
Chandler 2012: 6.2 FGA/36

For Wilt 67, I estimated about 12.3 FGA/100 possessions. That's not a lot. The comparison doesn't work because even with Wilt's lack of shot attempts, he took way more than Chandler and he was a focal point of the offense unlike Chandler (and Russell). Wilt's Assist% was 21.7% which is about the equivalent of 4.7-5.2 AST/36 minutes. That is about what Billups, McGrady, Blake, Bledsoe, and Holiday are averaging. Wilt's assist/game is over 8x higher than Chandler's.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#75 » by ronnymac2 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:01 pm

ElGee wrote:Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.


OK, so this was going to be my question.

Where do you rank Bird's 1988 regular season relative to himself and relative to everybody else in history when considering offense only? Because I remember looking at that season and thinking to myself it might be the best individual offensive regular season ever.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#76 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:03 pm

colts18 wrote:
ElGee wrote:And so you must think that 1967 is a Tyson Chandler type offensive player by this logic, right?


To a certain extent yes. Wilt got his efficiency up partly because he stopped shooting.

Wilt 67: 11.2 FGA/36 minutes
Russell career: 11.4 FGA/36 minutes
Chandler 2012: 6.2 FGA/36

For Wilt 67, I estimated about 12.3 FGA/100 possessions. That's not a lot. The comparison doesn't work because even with Wilt's lack of shot attempts, he took way more than Chandler and he was a focal point of the offense unlike Chandler (and Russell). Wilt's Assist% was 21.7% which is about the equivalent of 4.7-5.2 AST/36 minutes. That is about what Billups, McGrady, Blake, Bledsoe, and Holiday are averaging. Wilt's assist/game is over 8x higher than Chandler's.


Woah, timeout. Chandler shot more frequently per possession than Wilt.

And when you say "he was more a focal point," is that not exactly the point of the Russell comparison to random modern players with the same ppg line??

(And McGrady's ast% was much closer to 30%. Billups too, peaking at 40%. etc. etc.)
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#77 » by colts18 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:05 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:
ElGee wrote:Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.


OK, so this was going to be my question.

Where do you rank Bird's 1988 regular season relative to himself and relative to everybody else in history when considering offense only? Because I remember looking at that season and thinking to myself it might be the best individual offensive regular season ever.

This project also includes playoffs and 88 Bird was a playoff failure. That Detroit series was an all-time bad series for a GOAT type player. He shot 35% from the field in that series including a 4-17 clunker in Game 6.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#78 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:06 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:
ElGee wrote:Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.


OK, so this was going to be my question.

Where do you rank Bird's 1988 regular season relative to himself and relative to everybody else in history when considering offense only? Because I remember looking at that season and thinking to myself it might be the best individual offensive regular season ever.


The RS alone? Verrrrrry high. I have it right on par with the other peak Bird seasons. I don't even know if I'd object to ranking it first (which it make it my No. 2 all-time offensive season behind 87 Magic). Unfortunately for Bird, his body falls apart that post season.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#79 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:08 pm

More great stuff guys. Keep it up. You might have guess that I'm traveling right now, so I'm just checking in when I can. A few things I wanted to say about Russell:

Re: Why '65 over '62? Well to me '64 & '65 are the big years to consider for Russell because it's with those are the first two years after Cousy retired, and instead of the team dropping off, they got even better. Their defense was God-like, and while their offense wasn't good, it is noteworthy in a positive way for Russell's argument that Russell was the one who took over as the team's primary distributor. (No, it doesn't make sense to say that Russell's actions made the team offense bad, if Russell was worse than the other players, they would not have used him in that role. He's obviously not Magic as a passer, when he was the best passer on a team totally reliant on his defense. That is in no way something that should be used against him.)

In terms of '64 vs '65, I have a real tough time being passionate for one year over the other. Both were amazing. When the time comes to really decide the year to get behind, I doubt I'll make a stink, but I'm certainly interested to see what Reg and some others think.

Speaking of Regul8r, first off, loved the Magic post. Every time we do a project, I'm hopeful we'll get to see such posts from you. Second though, I feel like you're acting too much the defeatist when it comes to Russell's candidacy. I think we all implicitly understand that Russell's lack of offensive sexy could hurt him unfairly, so let's try to counteract that with knowledge distribution.

Of course, to my knowledge, you favor Wilt's peak over Russell's, so it's perfectly understandable that you wouldn't say much of Russell at this point.

ElGee, interesting to see you advocating peak Russell over Wilt. I think there's a good argument for that, but I get confused when you start talking about West's offensive decade over Wilt's. I take it as a given that West was typically a more impactful offensive player than Wilt, but in '67, the 76er offense reached heights well above anything a West or Oscar offense had done to that point.

I do understand that that 76er offense still wasn't anywhere near as dominant as the best Russell Celtic defenses, and as y'all know I give Russell a ton of credit for those defenses, but he wasn't everything. When we're talking about double digit points better than average for those defenses, do we all agree that Russell wasn't himself responsible for double digit defensive impact?

This isn't to say that I consider '67 Wilt's offense to be more impactful than peak Russell's defense, but when you consider the overall package, I haven't really taken any issue with the Wilt peak superiority. Frankly, it's still not clear to me that Russell in '64 was better than Wilt in '64 (his 2nd best year imho).

With all this stuff, at this point, I'm expecting to start seriously considering Russ as soon as Wilt gets in, and who knows, maybe sooner.
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Re: #2 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Tue 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#80 » by colts18 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:10 pm

ElGee wrote:Woah, timeout. Chandler shot more frequently per possession than Wilt.

And when you say "he was more a focal point," is that not exactly the point of the Russell comparison to random modern players with the same ppg line??

(And McGrady's ast% was much closer to 30%. Billups too, peaking at 40%. etc. etc.)

I don't Chandler's exact per 100 possession stats but that does make my point to a certain extent. Wilt 67 is great, but his scoring gets overrated because he rarely shot. Once teams adjusted, he was still too content to not shoot the ball anymore. But Wilt still did create his own shot more frequently than Chandler.

Those assist% are from last season. I was comparing him (and Russell) to players from last year.

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