therealbig3 wrote:@ElGee
Well, as colts18 pointed out, you can see that LeBron in Miami is still having serious offensive impact even though he is playing next to someone that doesn't fit him that well. No he's not the greatest at playing off ball and thus blending in with a lot of other stars (KG or Allen would be perfect though), but why would you want him to? It's like taking the ball out of Nash's hands. He could play off-ball, but you'll get the best results if you just give him the ball.
And in 2011 and 2012 combined, Miami is a -3.2 team without LeBron or Wade out there. Put Wade in, and they're +1.2, for a lift of +4.4. Take Wade out and put LeBron in, and the Heat are +5.3, for a lift of +8.5. And when it's just Wade and LeBron, we see a team that's +13.1 with a 114.8 ORating. That's all-time great offense, and that's an all-time great team. So I don't think the less than ideal fit of LeBron and Wade is as crippling as some people think, and I actually think it's quite impressive how he's blended in with Wade and Bosh. And we saw him play quite well with his cuts to the basket and his screens when he did play off-ball in the 2012 playoffs, and that was with a much weaker jump shot than he had in 09.
And similarly to how you said Magic is a guy you just give the ball to and get out of the way, I think that's the same case with LeBron. And just like Magic, LeBron was still a high impact player without having the ball in his hands as much and playing with other talented ball handlers. I think because 09 LeBron was a superior shooter to 12 LeBron, I don't think his portability is as big of an issue as you seem to think.
And the redundancy of a LeBron/Wade pairing is what really holds the duo back. If you paired Magic with Wade, I honestly don't think you'd see spectacular (relatively speaking) results either. Maybe better than LeBron/Wade, but again, you'd be forcing Wade to play off-ball, which as we've seen with LeBron/Wade, he isn't that great at. And if you gave the ball to Wade, you'd be forcing Magic off-ball, which would be totally wasting Magic's talent, and the offense wouldn't be as great as people would think it should be on paper. And that wouldn't be a knock on Magic imo. Even then, I agree it would work better than LeBron/Wade, but only because Magic and Wade aren't practically carbon copies of each other like LeBron/Wade are. LeBron/Wade play very similar games, so the redundancy there is more than we've seen from any other great duo imo.
Also, Paul vs LBJ offensively according to RAPM:
2008: +5.3 (LBJ) vs +3.8 (Paul)
2009: +6.6 (LBJ) vs +4.5 (Paul)
2010: +7.1 (LBJ) vs +3.1 (Paul)
2011: +4.1 (LBJ) vs +4.1 (Paul)
2012: +4.2 (LBJ) vs +5.3 (Paul)
They've only been comparable the last two years when LeBron paired up with Wade, and even then they're about the same level, with a slight edge to Paul last year.
And compare LeBron to Nash (who has been compared favorably to Magic/Jordan/Bird offensively) using RAPM and compare their best RAPM finishes to each other (05-12):
+7.9 (2007 Nash) vs +7.1 (2007 LeBron)
+7.4 (2008 Nash) vs +7.1 (2010 LeBron)
+6.3 (2010 Nash) vs +6.6 (2009 LeBron)
+6.2 (2009 Nash) vs +5.3 (2008 LeBron)
+6.2 (2011 Nash) vs +4.2 (2012 LeBron)
+4.7 (2012 Nash) vs +4.1 (2011 LeBron)
+4.4 (2006 Nash) vs +3.9 (2006 LeBron)
+4.0 (2005 Nash) vs +2.0 (2005 LeBron)
From 06-12, LeBron and Nash are quite comparable offensively, with a slight edge to Nash probably. At their peaks, pretty identical.
And this is supported by the 4-year RAPM from 07/08-10/11:
+6.6 (LeBron) vs +7.7 (Nash)...and LeBron is far and away the best in the league in terms of overall RAPM at +10.2. FTR, Paul is at +5.5 offensively.
Good posts -- what I was looking for.
But there's an element to these numbers that are being overlooked: they are on-court and lineup-specific numbers, not full game numbers. Don't forget the time these guys play with weaker lineups and when they are out of the game 20-25% of the time. (!)
When the 96 Bulls post a +13 (or whatever) MOV with Jordan-Rodman-Pippen PER GAME, that INCLUDES all the permutations of lineups those guys play with AND the 20% of the game they were on the bench. It's not correct to equate the top lineup (eg 115 ORtg) to the FINAL TOTAL of a team (eg 115 ORtg for season). Just look at LeBron in Cleveland in the exact data I posted -- those are 115-116 ORtg lineups (excellent) but they are
+4 offense on the year.
You have to curve these numbers based on these other factors. It's pretty safe to say Bird's 1988 offense I spoke of that posted a 117 ORtg
on the season featured Bird-McHale-X lineups that were 120 or higher. That's what it takes. The actual difference is mostly going to be based on (a) how much the star sat and (b) how well the team can play with the star(s) on the bench.
TL;DR: The lineup numbers aren't actually showing (historic) or super-high level offenses. My concerns aren't entirely alleviated.
Miami, like Cleveland, isn't a good team outside of James-Wade. I think an interesting question to ask is: 2012 Miami Heat, replacing LBJ with a replacement player...what's their SRS? Your point about keeping LeBron on the ball is excellent. I definitely don't buy the standard positions, and LeBron and Wade essentially play the same "position." I do think of LeBron in the Nash/Paul positional designation...
But I suppose what I'm asking is, if LeBron goes to an above average offensive team, what does the makeup have to look like for him to maintain his huge impact? I don't think they can be a high-level PG driven team or else he's just improving on one of the guys making them above average.
eg a Kevin Johnson offense is +3. Replace with LeBron they might go to +4 or +5.
In 2012, what kind of ORtg do you think the following teams have if you simply put LeBron on the ball?
SAS
OKC
Den
LAC
Pho
LAL
In short, you want your elite offensive players taking lots of lineups to outlying areas, not so just "good" areas. LBJ + mediocre/bad offensive teams are not posting +7 ORtgs. *waits for someone to make defensive-strategy argument*
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For RAPM, my understanding is you can't compare the numbers evenly across years. With that said, RAPM is a great stat but it's not perfect (and not just from standard error). The numbers will be impacted by quality of team. To me, I see a difference in what Nash is doing and James:
Nash
2010 112 --> 119
2009 109 --> 118
2008 104 --> 119
2007 106 --> 119
2006 106 --> 115
2005 104 --> 122 (!)
I've included 2010, an excellent year for Nash, because he had a backup playing really well that year. He still comes in and bumps the team up to historic levels (lineups at 119+ ARE historically good, unlike 115
lineups). For James, the ceiling of his offenses isn't as high. It looks like:
James
2012 99 --> 112
2011 109 --> 115
2010 102 --> 1172009 104 --> 116
Green font??
