In Defense of Okafor and Nene

[payitforward]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

Can't argue w/ that at all if what you mean is "no individual is likely...".

But if you mean it's unlikely that any rookie other than Anthony Davis will be a difference-maker this year, a very different statement, I'm pretty sure you will turn out to be wrong. There will be 2 or 3 I think.

Correct - I should have worded it "no individual is likely...". Say, you have 60 lottery tickets, but only 2 are winners. Each of the tickets by themselves is not likely a winner, but in the end 2 will be winners - possibly 3 if Ernst & Young is auditing.

Eggzackly! And all 3 would be yours if I were auditing!

[MF23]

Nene's 2011-2012 stats compared to: Bosh, Boozer, Ibaka, Noah, Stoudemire.

http://bkref.com/tiny/ct7mW

He'd probably have the best overall statistical line were it not for turnovers.

Nene's one of the better big men in the world but there are issues. How do I say this, when he wants to only Dwight Howard is somebody I would say is better than him.

I don't have a problem with playing a Oak, Nene, Sar front court. I just have a problem with how much money they make.

None of this matters! It all revolves around John Wall's development. He's the difference and from what I'm hearing he's doing it this summer.

[Ruzious]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

I'd be willing to bet MKG has something to say about that.

What's he going to say - Ruz was right? Are the CharBobs going to win 15 games instead of 12 now that they have him. Oh, that's right; they also got Sessions and Brendan Todd Haywood. Make it 16 wins.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nobody in this rookie class is likely going to be a difference-maker as a rookie other than Anthony Davis.

I'd be willing to bet MKG has something to say about that.

What's he going to say - Ruz was right? Are the CharBobs going to win 15 games instead of 12 now that they have him. Oh, that's right; they also got Sessions and Brendan Todd Haywood. Make it 16 wins.

I'll say they win at least 24 games.

For all the boasting of improved defense on the Wizards, Brendan Haywood is as good defensively as Okafor or Nene. MKG will be a better defender than Ariza. Biyombo will be a shot blocker and rebounder with higher defensive upside than any Wizard. Jeffrey Taylor is more athletic and potentially better defensively than any wing player the Wizards have. Tyrus Thomas gets a new coach to try to tap into his defensive potential. With those defensive improvements, Sessions and Ben Gordon will add to the offense. Not having the ball stop at Maggette will be a plus.

The Bobcats have a new coach who will be much better, potentially, than Silas once Wallace and Jackson were no longer Bobcats.

I think Charlotte will be a lot better.

[Kanyewest]

How I look in the roster in terms of being a legit contender:

Code: Select all

Pos Starter      2nd string/rotation     3rd string/non-rotation 
PG John Wall       ............          A.J. Price & Shelvin Mack
SG Bradley Beal    ............          Jordan Crawford
SF ...........     Trevor Ariza          Cartier Martin & Chris Singleton
PF Nene            Trevor Booker         Jan Vesely
CE ...........     Kevin Seraphin & Emeka Okafor

Were probably 3 players away from legitimately contending. I like Nene as a complementary big. Same with KSera and Okafor. We've got great depth up front but outside of Vesely there isn't a lot of length and the consistently ability to hit a jumper is always in question. I could see Nene, KSera or Okafor starting for a contender, but not alongside each other.

Ariza would be a solid 20 minute backup, if he wasn't getting paid $7 mil per and having to start, I might feel better about his acquisition. Also, it would be nice if he wasn't so inefficient. Suffice it to say the team lacks a legit #1 option. An all-star quality SF that can fill it up would be nice.

Backup PG isn't as big of a need as having an aggressive 3rd guard off the bench that a team can run an offense through when your top scoring options need a break. JCraw failed miserably in this role last season. I honestly don't want him in the rotation this year. Lou Williams, Jason Terry and James Harden are perfect examples of big a role these guys can play in a team's success.

For now, I don't know what to think of Ariza. Yes, he's been statistically bad the last few years. But he was IMO the 4th best player on that Lakers team that won the title, for that season anyways. I'm not sure how much Ariza's game has changed since then like has become less athletic since his Laker days and/or his shot selection and his role change since I don't recall seeing Ariza play since then other thana pretty good playoff series against the Lakers with New Orleans.

Now it does make sense why Ariza's stats fell off in Houston. For much of that season, Ariza was relied upon to be the Rockets primary or secondary scoring option with Yao out.

Then he goes to New Orleans and puts up poor numbers in the regular season with CP3. And then after CP3 leaves town, Emeka and Gordon go out with injuries, at least Ariza put up slightly better numbers.

So perhaps Ariza will go as the Wizards supporting cast will take him. Maybe Ariza can be an efficient player if he takes around 7-8 shots a game like he did with the Lakers as opposed to the 10-14 which he has been taking in New Orleans and Houston. Or maybe his game has regressed with age. We'll see.

[Kanyewest]

I think we'd have a good team if it was 1992. This team was made for the Pat Riley era. We've got that early to mid 90s type frontline with a bunch of bruisers in Oak, Nene, Booker & KSera. Back when they allowed handchecking, we could simply punish teams into submission with our physicality.

Problem is it's 2012 and I think EG is about 20 years late on being like the old style Knicks or Pacers (w/ the Davis bros.). The game is much more about quickness and skill now. Are we quick enough to stay with stretch 4s with Nene & Oak both in the game?

Secondly, how do we score? Who's the #1 scoring option? Or #2 or even #3? Is it our non-shooting PG in Wall? Is it our incredibly high volume but very inefficient SG in Crawford? Is it the 19 yr old rookie?

I think its a poorly built roster with a gaping hole at SF, young bigs whose development is being blocked by older veteran bigs who aren't much better and we still failed to address the #1 issue heading into the offseason, efficient scoring.

We'll be better no doubt, well simply because we were the second worst team in the league, and when you add $42 mil in guaranteed salary, chances are that their should be some improvement. But I don't know if 30-35 wins means were on the right path.

Ha this post made me laugh, because it's true. This team totally reminds me of a team from that era.

But you know, some things are tried and true. I see the pattern to be following the Bulls, with the pg as the focal point and defense. I'm looking forward to watching a couple crafty vets who are willing bang in Oak and Nene. I used to love watching the Beef Bros, and Wes before that, and Moses afterwards. And I love the idea of bringing in Seraphin and Booker off the bench to dish out more punishment vs the 2nd strings.

The Bulls analogy is interesting. Of course each team has their #1 pick in pgs in Wall and Rose. The Bulls before had Ben Gordon and now the Wizards have Beal who can hopefully defend shooting guards.

Okafor and Noah are very similar players (I wonder if people would have seen more value in Okafor if he was a #9 pick vs a #2 pick and if he had played most of his career alongisde an elite player like Rose). The Wizards essentially signed Nene while the Bulls have Boozer.

[willbcocks]

The Bulls analogy is a good one, and if Beal is a legit second star, I like the team we have better than Chicago's for the long run.

The problem with the analogy is it illustrates just how dependent we are on something that is not a great bet: Wall becoming a superstar. I like Wall, and I think there's a chance that he'll be a superstar of Rose's caliber, but it's at 20% chance, not an 80% chance. And if it doesn't happen, our flexibility is limited.

[Dr Positivity]

Terrence Ross is very inconsistent, but I think he's much more athletic finishing the ball at the rim.

I think he's a step below Beal in this category. Beal is built like a bull and seem to use his body well finishing. Ross' big weakness is scoring points in the paint and free throw line. His arms are really short so he can't really extend to finish well, Beal actually has the same wingspan/standing reach despite being 3 inches shorter. Also on the topic of scoring I would expect Beal gets a lot more minutes than Ross this year

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Terrence Ross is very inconsistent, but I think he's much more athletic finishing the ball at the rim.

I think he's a step below Beal in this category. Beal is built like a bull and seem to use his body well finishing. Ross' big weakness is scoring points in the paint and free throw line. His arms are really short so he can't really extend to finish well, Beal actually has the same wingspan/standing reach despite being 3 inches shorter. Also on the topic of scoring I would expect Beal gets a lot more minutes than Ross this year

Dr Positivity, you could be right.

I really liked, at the last minute, Terrance Ross. He didn't put up great stats, but he closed the season strong in the NIT. Ross is fluid and long on defense. You're right that he doesn't get to the line. Maybe I've bought into the highlight reel dunks on Ross. He was open on those cuts to the rim.

It will come down to minutes, probably, as to who has the better rookie year. Beal has the sturdier build, but Ross looks quicker to me.

[Ruzious]

What's he going to say - Ruz was right? Are the CharBobs going to win 15 games instead of 12 now that they have him. Oh, that's right; they also got Sessions and Brendan Todd Haywood. Make it 16 wins.

I'll say they win at least 24 games.

For all the boasting of improved defense on the Wizards, Brendan Haywood is as good defensively as Okafor or Nene. MKG will be a better defender than Ariza. Biyombo will be a shot blocker and rebounder with higher defensive upside than any Wizard. Jeffrey Taylor is more athletic and potentially better defensively than any wing player the Wizards have. Tyrus Thomas gets a new coach to try to tap into his defensive potential. With those defensive improvements, Sessions and Ben Gordon will add to the offense. Not having the ball stop at Maggette will be a plus.

The Bobcats have a new coach who will be much better, potentially, than Silas once Wallace and Jackson were no longer Bobcats.

I think Charlotte will be a lot better.

You're trying to have it both ways. If you think Cha is going to be that good, you gotta predict a helvalot more than 24 wins. 24-58 is horrific. It's epic failure, as the kids say. The way you talk about them, they should be at least .500 next season.

BTH looked slow last season with Dallas, and I'm not expecting him to get quicker with age. MKG isn't likely to be better than Ariza in anything as a rookie - mainly because he's a kid - and a kid who can't shoot to save his life. I like BB's po, but even with him and Ty Thomas - they were putrid defensively. Jeffrey Taylor is most likely NOT going to be a good NBA player. He was a mediocre college player until he was an over-aged senior, and while he's a good athlete, his lack of length makes his defensive potential LESS than average. Do Sessions and Gordon get to come out of the game on defense and Ty Thomas and BB get to come out on offense? Based on how Sessions "improved" the Twolves, the Cavs, and the Lakers... the Bobs should be champions - especially with Paul Silas' impressive track record as a head coach.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You're trying to have it both ways. If you think Cha is going to be that good, you gotta predict a helvalot more than 24 wins. 24-58 is horrific. It's epic failure, as the kids say. The way you talk about them, they should be at least .500 next season.

BTH looked slow last season with Dallas, and I'm not expecting him to get quicker with age. MKG isn't likely to be better than Ariza in anything as a rookie - mainly because he's a kid - and a kid who can't shoot to save his life. I like BB's po, but even with him and Ty Thomas - they were putrid defensively. Jeffrey Taylor is most likely NOT going to be a good NBA player. He was a mediocre college player until he was an over-aged senior, and while he's a good athlete, his lack of length makes his defensive potential LESS than average. Do Sessions and Gordon get to come out of the game on defense and Ty Thomas and BB get to come out on offense? Based on how Sessions "improved" the Twolves, the Cavs, and the Lakers... the Bobs should be champions - especially with Paul Silas' impressive track record as a head coach.

Ruz, the Bobcats hired Mike Dunlap.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... index.html

The 54-year-old has an intriguing résumé. He led the Division II program at Metropolitan State College in Denver from 1997-2006, winning two national titles, making nine straight NCAA tournament appearances and finishing 248-50. He then spent two seasons as a Nuggets assistant under George Karl -- he took over for a coach who is doing quite well these days: Oklahoma City's Scott Brooks.

Great hire by Bobcats!" Karl wrote on his Twitter account after the Charlotte Observer broke the news of Dunlap's hire. "Mike Dunlap is one of the most creative defensive minds I've ever worked with. Welcome back to the NBA!"

In Dunlap's St. John's bio, Karl said of his former assistant: "Mike Dunlap absolutely elevates every player and team he comes into contact with. ... He will take you from good to great. Name any top-level, elite coach in the game -- the only difference between Mike and them is their address. There is no higher level of coaching ability than his. There is absolutely no one better."

As for my prediction, the Bobcats went 7-59 in 2012. That was an 8-74 pace.

From start to finish in 2011-2012 the Bobcats ranked 30th of 30 teams last season. Charlotte was an epically bad team. (From that link, video clip #10 makes actually me feel better about Ariza.)

Tell you what, Ruz, I'll predict they go 28-54.

That's four times as many wins this season and an over 20-game improvement for Charlotte. I won't be surprised if the Bobcats aren't any more than 5 game or so behind the Wizards this season. Their coach will mold that roster and far outperform expectations.

[montestewart]

I would call 28 wins very significant improvement for the Bobcats, and especially if the record improves as the season progresses. They'd probably still need one more bad year after that before thinking about the playoffs, but if a couple of the young players really take off and/or they strike hot in the draft and keep making moves, who knows?

[nate33]

Tell you what, Ruz, I'll predict they go 28-54.

That's four times as many wins this season and an over 20-game improvement for Charlotte. I won't be surprised if the Bobcats aren't any more than 5 game or so behind the Wizards this season. Their coach will mold that roster and far outperform expectations.

I guarantee that Charlotte wins less than 28 games and that the Wizards will exceed Charlotte's win total by more than 5 wins. I'd take that bet even with 10-1 odds against me.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, would you take a bet of Charlotte winning at least 24 and the Wizards win no more than 34?

--That would be within a 10-game spread, meaning the Bobcats still improved more than the Wizards, who at 20-46 finished 13 games better.

--I think a season of someting like 33-49 for Washington and 26-56 for Charlotte would indicate MJ and Cho will have gotten things right a lot more than Ted and Ernie. If my high end number comes true, 28-54 for Charlotte and 33-49 for the Wizards, that won't shock me, either.

[nate33]

It wouldn't surprise me if Charlotte "improved" more than Washington because I think last season's win total for Charlotte was artificially low due to tanking. They were bad, but no team should win just 8 (prorated) games in a season. You should get 8 wins based on the schedule alone (opposing teams with back-to-backs or injuries). If last season was replayed, I would expect something more like 12 or 13 wins out of that roster. So it's almost like they're being spotted a 5-win improvement before we even consider the improvement they'll make due to roster and coaching changes.

And besides that, it's simply harder to improve the more wins you have. Going from 25 to 40 wins is a more difficult task than going from 8 to 23 wins.

[Ruzious]

You're trying to have it both ways. If you think Cha is going to be that good, you gotta predict a helvalot more than 24 wins. 24-58 is horrific. It's epic failure, as the kids say. The way you talk about them, they should be at least .500 next season.

BTH looked slow last season with Dallas, and I'm not expecting him to get quicker with age. MKG isn't likely to be better than Ariza in anything as a rookie - mainly because he's a kid - and a kid who can't shoot to save his life. I like BB's po, but even with him and Ty Thomas - they were putrid defensively. Jeffrey Taylor is most likely NOT going to be a good NBA player. He was a mediocre college player until he was an over-aged senior, and while he's a good athlete, his lack of length makes his defensive potential LESS than average. Do Sessions and Gordon get to come out of the game on defense and Ty Thomas and BB get to come out on offense? Based on how Sessions "improved" the Twolves, the Cavs, and the Lakers... the Bobs should be champions - especially with Paul Silas' impressive track record as a head coach.

Ruz, the Bobcats hired Mike Dunlap.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... index.html

The 54-year-old has an intriguing résumé. He led the Division II program at Metropolitan State College in Denver from 1997-2006, winning two national titles, making nine straight NCAA tournament appearances and finishing 248-50. He then spent two seasons as a Nuggets assistant under George Karl -- he took over for a coach who is doing quite well these days: Oklahoma City's Scott Brooks.

Great hire by Bobcats!" Karl wrote on his Twitter account after the Charlotte Observer broke the news of Dunlap's hire. "Mike Dunlap is one of the most creative defensive minds I've ever worked with. Welcome back to the NBA!"

In Dunlap's St. John's bio, Karl said of his former assistant: "Mike Dunlap absolutely elevates every player and team he comes into contact with. ... He will take you from good to great. Name any top-level, elite coach in the game -- the only difference between Mike and them is their address. There is no higher level of coaching ability than his. There is absolutely no one better."

As for my prediction, the Bobcats went 7-59 in 2012. That was an 8-74 pace.

From start to finish in 2011-2012 the Bobcats ranked 30th of 30 teams last season. Charlotte was an epically bad team. (From that link, video clip #10 makes actually me feel better about Ariza.)

Tell you what, Ruz, I'll predict they go 28-54.

That's four times as many wins this season and an over 20-game improvement for Charlotte. I won't be surprised if the Bobcats aren't any more than 5 game or so behind the Wizards this season. Their coach will mold that roster and far outperform expectations.

However you slice it, 24 wins is 24 wins, and 24 wins sucks matza balls <copywrite>. 28 will give you some cred.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ruz, if you want me to really go out on a limb I will tell you that it is possible Charlotte will end up with a BETTER record than the Wizards.

While people keep mistaking Wall for a superstar, I will not be surprised when Sessions and Gordon scoring efficiently as the Bobcats are the surprise of the NBA. Sessions for the regular season he made 43-97 3PT shots. (44% ) Ben Gordon shot 63-147 3PT shots (43%). John Wall shot 3-41 3PT last season. In addition to their outside scoring, the player you think can't score will prove you wrong, Ruz. MKG could be a top-4 player in this draft.

I'm confident the Cats will win in the mid-20s, at least.

[Ruzious]

CCJ, nobody that I know of has called Wall a superstar. They've called him a future superstar, and I still believe he has a very good chance of being one. And if you'd rather have Sessions, then I don't know what to say to you. Why do you think he fell out of favor with the Lakers - a GOOD TEAM that wanted a good shooting/scoring point guard? And what was his 3 point shooting before last season?

Mid 20 wins - ooh ahh, you're really going out on a limb for your new team. 24 wins is mid 20's, so you haven't even budged on that. Sorry, but that still sounds lame to me.

And of course MKG could be a top 4 player in this draft. But I doubt he makes much of an impact AS A ROOKIE.

[queridiculo]

Wall sucks, Nene is either going to get injured or suck (or a combination of both), and Okafor, well, he sucks.

The Bobcats will mop the floor with the Wizards while Blatche will win a championship with the Heat against the Nuggets featuring McGee as the MVP of the 2013 season.

I'm going out on a limb here, but the Wizards, well, they're going to suck.

[TGW]

MKG could be a top-4 player in this draft.

I would hope so, considering he was taken second.