Modern_epic wrote:Lateral Quicks wrote:No, I think starting pitchers are babied enough as it is.
Injury risk occurs when a pitcher gets tired and stops repeating their normal mechanics. I think we should consign pitch count to the dustbin of history, and instead focus on whether a pitcher is repeating his normal mechanics. If he tires and starts cheating in his mechanics, that's the time to get him out of there asap.
Of course, if your mechanics suck to begin with, you have a higher probability of being injured at any time.
This is a 10 year old theory, and the point of it isn't to baby the pitchers. They throw about the same number of pitches overall by throwing every 4 days instead of 5. The point is that a pitcher's performance degrades each time they go through the order, a bit more from batter familiarity than fatigue.
It is a strong enough effect that you are generally better with an average reliever than a #2 starter by the 4th time through. Bad starters shouldn't even see a 3rd time. Pulling a pitcher after 75 pitches is normally somewhere between 2 and 3 times through the order.
I do think we'll start to see more experimentation in this direction going forward because it relies on fewer premium guys (very hard to come by) and handles injuries a bit better (your relievers are potentially far closer to be re-trained as starters). Making pitching staff parts closer to interchangeable can only help with the rise of like 50% injury rate on pitching staffs.
That being said, I would be 100% against doing something like this midseason. IMO if you want to head in this direction you spend years ramping up to it and planning. If you want to experiment first before starting that process, do it in the minors. Don't mess with your major leaguers on a whim, that's total madness. At most I could see a team taking the 4th and 5th spot, splitting them up and using 3-4 guys for it in the short term at the major league level.
Still, in the long run, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if pitchers become 3+ times through the lineup, 2 times through the lineup, 1 time through the lineup, and OOGY's. It won't do away with pitch counts, but IMO where through the lineup you are and the number of 20+ pitch innings is more important than 90 or 100 or 110 pitches.