Draft Results: Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard, Will Barton.

[Shem]

I new video with an interview and highlights of Damian Lillard:
http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_t ... ef:nbahpt2

It does talk about how he first learned how to play basketball.

[Shem]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQz4I_dL1yk[/youtube]

[mojomarc]

Wow--I didn't know Hersey Hawkins was part of the management staff. Talk about a perfect guy to help mentor Lillard. Another small college guy who no one really knew about until his last year in college, who worked himself into an NBA all star and a 22ppg scorer.

[Shem]

You guys should see this video of Meyers Leonard. He shows some skills I didn't know he had and can really see some potential there:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LWNpaPEw6o[/youtube]

[d-train]

Jason Quick ‏@jwquick
By the way, Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry gushed about Blazers rookie PG Damian Lillard. "That kid is going to be great,'' Gentry said.

This is encouraging.

It's it interesting that you said this:

We have a lot riding on a rookie PG who is going to make fat Felton look like a 1st team All-NBA player.

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=1198225

Not only is Lillard unlikely to be better next season than Felton was last season, I doubt Lillard will be as good a PG as Felton's backup, Crawford. This doesn't mean that I expect Lillard to be a bust. Not many rookie PG's are good. Anyone expecting Lillard to be Brandon Roy will most likely be very disappointed.

The Blazers don’t have any backup plan to Lillard so he is going to play and get numbers. But, he isn’t going to know how to lead an NBA team to victories. Nobody was satisfied with Felton showing up to games and filling the box score. Felton was expected to help the Blazers win games and after the expectations were removed, Felton was better. At least Lillard has low expectations in his favor. It was fair to expect results from Felton but it isn’t reasonable to expect great results from Lillard.

I don’t know if Lillard will be a great NBA player or a bad NBA player. I can wait to see him play a few NBA games before I decide what he is capable of accomplishing. I will not be surprised if he and the team struggle and are bad next year. If Lillard is good, obviously that dramatically improves the Blazers chances of being competitive. But, you would have to be living in a fantasy world to think the Blazers have a good chance to win more than 30 games next year with the information we have right now.

[ebott]

Anyone expecting Lillard to be Brandon Roy will most likely be very disappointed.

But, you would have to be living in a fantasy world to think the Blazers have a good chance to win more than 30 games next year with the information we have right now.

Reading your post got me thinking. Let's say Lillard has a statistically good season next year. Heck, let's go nuts and say he has the exact same stat line that Brandon Roy had his rookie season...

Player G M/Gm FG% 3% pts rbs ast
roy,brandon 57 35.4 .456 .377 16.8 4.4 4

The Blazers only won 32 games that year and Roy arguably had a better team around him than Lillard has this season. What win total would the Blazers need to hit in order for those numbers to be legit rather than dumping them in the good numbers on a bad team pile?

[PDXKnight]

Anyone expecting Lillard to be Brandon Roy will most likely be very disappointed.

But, you would have to be living in a fantasy world to think the Blazers have a good chance to win more than 30 games next year with the information we have right now.

Reading your post got me thinking. Let's say Lillard has a statistically good season next year. Heck, let's go nuts and say he has the exact same stat line that Brandon Roy had his rookie season...

Player G M/Gm FG% 3% pts rbs ast
roy,brandon 57 35.4 .456 .377 16.8 4.4 4

The Blazers only won 32 games that year and Roy arguably had a better team around him than Lillard has this season. What win total would the Blazers need to hit in order for those numbers to be legit rather than dumping them in the good numbers on a bad team pile?

It's a pretty grey area. Most PG's don't have good rookie seasons, this is why I'm dead set in my belief that Lillard won't lead us to the playoffs next season. Obviously A + B doesn't always equal C but it often does. I imagine Lillard would have to put up 18/7 on good shooting for us to have a shot at the playoffs. A lot would have to go right for Lillard to have that kind of season. I think if Dame ends up with good stats it'll be because he has a late season surge. In other words, there will be an adjustment process for anywhere between 15 and 25 games at least then we can judge what he can do a bit more accurately.

[SinceClyde]

The Blazers don’t have any backup plan to Lillard so he is going to play and get numbers. But, he isn’t going to know how to lead an NBA team to victories. Nobody was satisfied with Felton showing up to games and filling the box score. Felton was expected to help the Blazers win games and after the expectations were removed, Felton was better. At least Lillard has low expectations in his favor. It was fair to expect results from Felton but it isn’t reasonable to expect great results from Lillard.

I don’t know if Lillard will be a great NBA player or a bad NBA player. I can wait to see him play a few NBA games before I decide what he is capable of accomplishing. I will not be surprised if he and the team struggle and are bad next year. If Lillard is good, obviously that dramatically improves the Blazers chances of being competitive. But, you would have to be living in a fantasy world to think the Blazers have a good chance to win more than 30 games next year with the information we have right now.

I disagree with this. I don't think Lillard has any issues with leadership. Lillard will have some growing pains; such as adapting to a defense that has scouted him, working on NBA level defense vs the Westbrooks of the league, and reading defenses to get the right players the ball. I see Lillard is a winner that will know what to do.

The only reason I think Lillard will get a rocky start is because of a difficult beginning schedule.

I also disagree that Lillard will be worse than last seasons felton. Lillard's conditioning ALONE will help this team in ways not shown directly on the stat sheet.

You want to talk about players who are going to need time, let's talk Meyers Leonard. Lillard? Not perfect but I think he'll do much better than Felton or Crawford.

On the last point, winning over 30 games will be tough next year. As a season ticket holder who was at the Roy Houston OT game, I can tell you that anything can happen. If the blazers are healthy, DEN UTAH MIN unhealthy, Blazers COULD go 35-40.

[GoBlazersGo]

Not only is Lillard unlikely to be better next season than Felton was last season, I doubt Lillard will be as good a PG as Felton's backup, Crawford. This doesn't mean that I expect Lillard to be a bust. Not many rookie PG's are good. Anyone expecting Lillard to be Brandon Roy will most likely be very disappointed.

The Blazers don’t have any backup plan to Lillard so he is going to play and get numbers. But, he isn’t going to know how to lead an NBA team to victories. Nobody was satisfied with Felton showing up to games and filling the box score. Felton was expected to help the Blazers win games and after the expectations were removed, Felton was better. At least Lillard has low expectations in his favor. It was fair to expect results from Felton but it isn’t reasonable to expect great results from Lillard.

I don’t know if Lillard will be a great NBA player or a bad NBA player. I can wait to see him play a few NBA games before I decide what he is capable of accomplishing. I will not be surprised if he and the team struggle and are bad next year. If Lillard is good, obviously that dramatically improves the Blazers chances of being competitive. But, you would have to be living in a fantasy world to think the Blazers have a good chance to win more than 30 games next year with the information we have right now.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HoaFWI5S0Q[/youtube]

[Shem]

Obviously A + B doesn't always equal C but it often does.

Actually A + B = AB

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Not many rookie PG's lead to a winning season, although Rubio did a good job trying last year. Still, I think it would take about 2 or 3 years until you can really be sure if a point guard can contribute wins or just numbers.

[ebott]

I’m callin my shot and saying that Damian Lillard is going to be better than Brandon Roy.

Fact: The 2006 Portland Trailblazers won 32 games.

Theory: If the Blazers win 32 or more games next year it proves that Damian Lillard is better than Brandon Roy.

Assertion: The surrounding cast of 2006 team that had Brandon Roy was better than the team that Damian Lillard has in 2012

rank 2006 2012 player advantage
1 Zach Randolph LaMarcus Aldridge 2012
2 Jarrett Jack Nick Batum 2012
3 Travis Outlaw Wesley Mathews 2006
4 Lamardus Aldridge JJ Hickson 2006
5 Juan Dixon Elliot Williams 2006
6 Ime udoka Nolan Smith 2006
7 Martell Webster Luke Babbitt 2006
8 Jamaal Magloire Meyers Leonard 2006
9 Fred Jones Victor Klaver 2006
10 Raef Lafrentz Joel Freeland 2006
11 Sergio Rodriguez Will Barton 2006

X will be assigned the value of the 2006 team. Y will be the value of Brandon roy.
U will be the value of the 2012 team. V will be the value of Damian Lillard.
Z will be the total number of wins.

We know X + Y = Z to be true
We’re asserting X > U to be true
So if U + V >= Z ends up being true the resulting outcome is Damian Lillard > Brandon Roy

Q. E. D. ?

[Shem]

We have a lot riding on a rookie PG who is going to make fat Felton look like a 1st team All-NBA player.

just curious, what is your prediction for Lillard's stats. I mean they have to be really bad in order to make Felton look like an "All NBA Player".

Not only is Lillard unlikely to be better next season than Felton was last season, I doubt Lillard will be as good a PG as Felton's backup, Crawford. This doesn't mean that I expect Lillard to be a bust. Not many rookie PG's are good. Anyone expecting Lillard to be Brandon Roy will most likely be very disappointed.

Most rookies aren't that good at any position. That's the way it is. Yet there are rookies who excel at all 5 positions in any given year which is why you have ROY's coming from all types of positions.

2012: Kyrie Irving - PG
2011: Blake Griffin - PF
2010: Tyreke Evans - SG
2009: Derrick Rose - PG
2008: Kevin Durant - SF
2007: Brandon Roy - SG
2006 Chris Paul - PG
2005: Emeka Okafor - C

In the last 8 seasons, I've named at least one guy from each of the 5 positions. 3 of them were point guards. I could argue that if Blake Griffin hadn't missed his first year in the NBA, he would have won it the year before, which would have knocked Evans out of it and then John Wall would have won it instead in 2011 which would have made it 4 of the last 8 ROY's were point guards.

And another thing, usually the top point guard prospect does well their rookie year and Lillard just happens to be that guy this year.

[a_sensei]

The point guards that usually come right out and shine are the ball dominate scorers. Rose, Iverson, Marbury, Francis, Stoudamire, Jennings, etc... Lillard may very well be the next one.

There have been a number of PGs in recent time that took awhile (a year to five years) to develop but became some of the best ever at the position.
Steve Nash, Chauncy Billups, Kevin Johnson, John Stockton and Gary Payton all fit into this category. It seems like there are more PGs in this category than other positions.

[Shem]

From Lillard's Facebook page:

I want to be rookie of the year...I want to be an All-Star in the next few years, and after that, I want to be in the Olympics in 2016.

Damian Lillard on August 6, 2012

[call.me.dude]

I’m callin my shot and saying that Damian Lillard is going to be better than Brandon Roy.

Fact: The 2006 Portland Trailblazers won 32 games.

Theory: If the Blazers win 32 or more games next year it proves that Damian Lillard is better than Brandon Roy.

Assertion: The surrounding cast of 2006 team that had Brandon Roy was better than the team that Damian Lillard has in 2012

rank 2006 2012 player advantage
1 Zach Randolph LaMarcus Aldridge 2012
2 Jarrett Jack Nick Batum 2012 ... by a whole lot
3 Travis Outlaw Wesley Mathews 2006 ... absolutely disagree
4 Lamardus Aldridge JJ Hickson 2006
5 Juan Dixon Elliot Williams 2006
6 Ime udoka Nolan Smith 2006
7 Martell Webster Luke Babbitt 2006
8 Jamaal Magloire Meyers Leonard 2006 ... wash
9 Fred Jones Victor Klaver 2006
10 Raef Lafrentz Joel Freeland 2006 ... disagree
11 Sergio Rodriguez Will Barton 2006

X will be assigned the value of the 2006 team. Y will be the value of Brandon roy.
U will be the value of the 2012 team. V will be the value of Damian Lillard.
Z will be the total number of wins.

We know X + Y = Z to be true
We’re asserting X > U to be true
So if U + V >= Z ends up being true the resulting outcome is Damian Lillard > Brandon Roy

Q. E. D. ?

I don't think the 2006 team minus Roy was a whole lot better than the 2012 team minus Lillard.
I also doubt we're going to win more than 32 games.

IMO, there's no chance Lillard is as good as ROY Roy, let alone better (in his prime) than Prime Roy. And I reaaaaally like Lillard.

[call.me.dude]

From Lillard's Facebook page:

I want to be rookie of the year...I want to be an All-Star in the next few years, and after that, I want to be in the Olympics in 2016.

Damian Lillard on August 6, 2012

awesome. now put in that work young fella!

[King d]

The point guards that usually come right out and shine are the ball dominate scorers. Rose, Iverson, Marbury, Francis, Stoudamire, Jennings, etc... Lillard may very well be the next one.

Hi

[GreenRiddler]

The point guards that usually come right out and shine are the ball dominate scorers. Rose, Iverson, Marbury, Francis, Stoudamire, Jennings, etc... Lillard may very well be the next one.

Hi

Hello!

[PDXKnight]

Obviously A + B doesn't always equal C but it often does.

Actually A + B = AB

Touchee.