bastillon wrote:I was looking at the best SRS teams ever:
http://bkref.com/tiny/KkpXBmy first thoughts: "okay, Bulls are actually underrated because Rodman missed some games at the start of that season and they went 14.2 SRS with him"; "Milwaukee must've been great two results in the top4"; "hey look there's another Milwaukee team... wait, another".
as we all know that team had Kareem on their roster. but what really stood out is the period... it didn't correlate directly with Kareem's presence, it correlated with the addition of Oscar Robertson. so let's take a tour into the 60s. Oscar joins his team, where he has the smallest bigs in the league. year after year he anchors top2 offenses in the league (mostly #1s)...and yet the Royals are mediocre to average most of the time. here's why: Jerry Lucas and co. couldn't play defense so every year Royals would've amazing offense, but were last in the league defensively, which caused them to suffer against the top teams.
anyway there goes his entire prime, he's still elite player going for 25/9/6 on league's best efficiency in his last two years in Royals uniform, but he's not recognized for his true greatness because his numbers don't seem to translate into team's success. (they actually did, Royals were the best offensive team of the decade by far)
so what happens now is key to understand Oscar's value. let's go back to 1969: Bucks win the lottery, select Lew Alcindor, who was later known as the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; they also select Dandridge, a Worthy-type player in terms of value. the turnaround is great: they're going from 27 wins to 56 wins...but what actually happened is Bucks overachieved in the RS, their SRS was at 4.25 which is consistent with ~52W team. now, having established the level of play of Milwaukee Bucks 1970, we also have to take into consideration it was Kareem's rookie year.
however big impact that may have made on their performance the next year, let's consider the following:
1)Traded Zaid Abdul-Aziz and cash to the Seattle SuperSonics for Lucius Allen and Bob Boozer.well, solid role players who went later to become really good players, but they were too young to make any kind of significant impact and played 22 and 19 mpg, posting 9/5 and 7/3/3, respectively. and actually Abdul-Aziz besides having a really royal name (current Saudi Arabia dynasty is Abdul-Aziz) also contributed nicely with 7.5/7.5 in 20 mpg.
2) Traded Charlie Paulk and Flynn Robinson to the Cincinnati Royals for Oscar Robertson.Paulk didn't even play on that 1970 team so he's pretty much irrelevant. Flynn Robinson however was their 2nd best scorer 22/5.5/3 on good efficiency - that must've hurt. they got Robertson instead but he was actually posting similar numbers - 19/8/6.
so Kareem made a rookie sophomore improvement, they traded for couple of good role players giving up a very good role player instead, and Flynn was swapped with Oscar whereas they produced similar boxscore stats.
so what you would've expected in this situation is a minimal progress. but what really happened was one of the greatest SRS improvements in league's history, an unprecedented +7.7 SRS jump. so to give you an idea of how much of a jump that is, let's put that into some perspective:
1) Bill Russell joins the Celtics +4 SRS
Bill Russell retires -7 SRS
2) Larry Bird joins the Celtics +12 SRS (wow thats big)
3) Magic Johnson retires due to AIDS -7 SRS
4) Shaq joins Magic +7 SRS
5) Michael Jordan retires in 93 -3 SRS; it'd be -7 if we're taking 92 as a comparison point
Michael Jordan comes back for 96 +7.5 SRS (+10 SRS with Rodman; +6.5 SRS without Rodman)
6) Tim Duncan joins the Spurs and David Robinson comes back from season ending injury +11 SRS
7) Steve Nash starts balling +10 SRS
8) Big Three arrives +13 SRS
now that we have a proper context, let's look at what Oscar did. the guy was a superstar, was posting ridiculous statlines on bad teams and everyone thought he was a loser. now the guy is traded for someone who puts up really solid numbers (22/5.5/3) and instead of barely improving his team, he makes them play at historical level - Milwaukee Bucks 1971 have the highest SRS rating of all time (but actually Bulls with Rodman would've been better had it not been for his missed games).
so long story short:
1970 Kareem and Dandridge are drafted +9 SRS
1971 Oscar shows up +7 SRS; they're now at all time best 11.9
1972 4th all time 10.8 SRS, Oscar missed some games during which Bucks played a lot worse
1973 30th all time 7.8 SRS as Oscar slowly finishes his career and his numbers drop to 15/7/5
1974 36th all time 7.6 SRS as Oscar plays his last season in the NBA; puts up 13/6/4
1975 Oscar retires, Bucks miss the playoffs as Kareem was injured for 20 games; -7.5 SRS
1) we should stop pretending Oscar Robertson is a top15-20 player of all time. based on this impact I'd be willing to say he's close to Magic Johnson. the guy came to a 4.2 SRS team and improved them to all time best 11.9. who else came close to that ? Michael Jordan came back and his team was +6.5 SRS (not accounting for Rodman).
2) is that impact attributable to Oscar ? how do I know it's him who made it work ? Oscar was leading the top2 offense annually in the 60s. then he proceeded to go to the Bucks and in 1971 Bucks had top4 offense of all time.
3) so what happened when Oscar missed games, how much of an impact did that make on his team ?
Bucks in 1968 went 3-14. for the rest we have Elgee's stats which are more accurate because they're showing pt differential with and without Oscar:
Robertson 1968 (21g) 14.4 to 2.5
Robertson 1972 (18g) 8.2 to 13
Robertson 1970 (11g) 5.8 to 2.1
basically, the improvement is immense. thinking about it now, 1972 Bucks were even a better team that year than in 1971, because 13 pts differential at that pace is still about 12.5 SRS...but Oscar was injured for the playoffs (went down in game 3) and this is what happened:
The teams split their first two games, and Robertson was injured late in the third game. The Lakers rallied to win and then swept the last two games, with Robertson playing at half speed in the fourth contest and not at all in the fifth.that contest wasn't close anymore without Oscar. and again, it's not very surprising; Elgee's stats have Bucks at +4.8 pt differential and this is basically a 50 win team without him. thing to remember: 1972 Lakers were one of the greatest teams of all time - by SRS they're 3rd all time at 11.65.
basing on the evidence I've just presented I'm going to go out on a limb and say Oscar Robertson belongs to the Larry Bird/Magic/Duncan/Hakeem group and should be finally given credit for his tremendous impact during his entire career. he was arguably the greatest scorer of his days, he was arguably as good a passer as Magic or Bird.
join the Oscar bandwagon; give credit where it's due