#9 Highest Peak of All Time (Duncan '03 wins)

[Lightning25]

He seemed to take his defense up a notch in the playoffs, and he was clearly having massive impact (check the on/off for the playoffs),

What is the site for that? Basketballvalue? How do you even read that site? I've been there plenty of times but I have no clue how to read or understand those numerous stats they give out. I'm assuming it's the APM stat though.

[therealbig3]

He seemed to take his defense up a notch in the playoffs, and he was clearly having massive impact (check the on/off for the playoffs),

What is the site for that? Basketballvalue? How do you even read that site? I've been there plenty of times but I have no clue how to read or understand those numerous stats they give out. I'm assuming it's the APM stat though.

Yeah, it's at basketballvalue. It's not APM (if I'm not mistaken, APM is about scoring margin, not time spent on the bench).

I go to basketball value, go to LeBron James, and there's a drop-down tab at the top, and you can select the 2012 playoffs. That should give you, among other things, his net on/off for the playoffs.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm changing my vote to LeBron '12, because I think LJ '09 has no chance to win this time - Elgee and Bastillon will not change their votes (LJ '12), but people who voted LJ '09 might switch to '12...

I do feel the need to say again and again:

Caving on your vote for strategic reasons is literally you making someone else's preference matter more than your own.

As the project runner, I don't really see a way to stop people from doing it so I'm not saying you can't, but I think you want to be very careful assuming that other people are simply more stubborn than you.

[bastillon]

I am gaining more and more respect for LeBron's 2012 though, and I wouldn't have a problem switching to that year if it has a better chance of winning. I'd take either year at this point.

It's true, LeBron in 2012 didn't need a jump shot to still dominate a game (as he showed throughout the playoffs). He seemed to take his defense up a notch in the playoffs, and he was clearly having massive impact (check the on/off for the playoffs), and he reverted back to Cleveland LeBron mode with Wade hobbling and Bosh out. And he did it against better defenses than he faced in 09.

I don't know, it's probably a toss-up for me at this point, but I won't switch as of yet.

LeBron didn't have a jumpshot ? have we been watching the same PS ? during which part of /2nd Rd/ECFs/finals did LeBron lose his jumpshot ? I remember him torching the Celtics with bunch of midrange jumpshots from the midpost and low post, and then killing OKC with floaters and jumpshots off post ups.

I don't know, maybe you were refering to the RS, but I know damn well that when it counted, LeBron did have a deadly jumpshot. he was like 17/22 at one point of game 6 vs Celtics. most of them midrange jumpshots.

in general these have been great debates, but I do have a problem with people putting so much emphasis on the RS. what really matters is your performance vs contenders in the PS. LeBron totally dominated after game 3 vs Indiana, when it counted the most. Wade was terrible, he just kept losing the ball and complaining on the floor while his opp ran to the other side and scored in transition. Bosh wasn't even playing. LeBron offensive cast was far worse than in Cleveland. at least Cavs players were elite 3pt shooters. those guys couldn't even make open shots very often. LeBron had to deliver every game and he did. that game 6 was the difference between winning and not winning a title. LeBron MADE the difference. (unlike, say, game 6 in 2009 when his team got blown out, while Dwight totally dominated both ends of the court and LeBron was padding stats after the game was long over and played 45 mins despite the game was never close)

[drza]

*Peak Garnett is arguably the best combo of defense and offense in a single player in at least the last decade. Dirk was an offensive beast and a solid defender, but overall he wasn't as strong

Mr. James wants a word with you.

Mr. James can have that word. I think KG was a better offensive player than LeBron has ever been a defensive player, and KG's defense is the best in the NBA for the last decade. LeBron's a great 2-way player, just not as good as KG

[bastillon]

had a gamewinner against Orlando

nice for you to mention that game winner, but he also missed like 3 other game winners in that series. so there's that.

[drza]

Ok. I'll still put him under KG though.

I think this is a pretty reasonable thing to say, and it's worth comparing KG to Shaq.

Shaq has the edge over KG because you can make a good case that at his peak he was the best in the game at both sides of the ball.

KG however is still among the very few who you can argue could be the best at offense or on defense depending on what the team needs. Granted, he'd only be best on offense in a relatively weak year for offensive players, but the claim itself is pretty staggering.

Jordan & LeBron could also be argued to be an ideal balance between offense & defense based on them being arguably ideal within their limitations, but neither should win DPOY.

Of course you know I agree with the overall sentiment of your post, but I do notice that "only the best in a weak year" is becoming a theme because KG's #1 finish in offensive RAPM came in the 2004 where some of the other contenders had down years. Which is fair.

I do feel like I should point out, though, that KG finished #2 in offensive RAPM (behind only Shaq) in the 2003 season that is used as one of the peak seasons for the powerhouses of his generation such as T-Mac, Kobe, Duncan and Dirk. KG was also top-5 in both PER and offensive win shares that season, leading the team with the #4 ranked offense in both scoring and assists. KG was also among the league leaders in offensive RAPM (#6), PER (#1), and offensive win shares (#4) while leading the #6 overall offense in both points and assists in 2005.

Just saying. KG's offense measured out right there at the top of the NBA at his peak whether the other offensive powerhouses were healthy or not. Making the claim that he was arguably the best offensive player in the league wasn't an asterisk fluke, nor was it limited entirely to 2004.

[colts18]

I am gaining more and more respect for LeBron's 2012 though, and I wouldn't have a problem switching to that year if it has a better chance of winning. I'd take either year at this point.

It's true, LeBron in 2012 didn't need a jump shot to still dominate a game (as he showed throughout the playoffs). He seemed to take his defense up a notch in the playoffs, and he was clearly having massive impact (check the on/off for the playoffs), and he reverted back to Cleveland LeBron mode with Wade hobbling and Bosh out. And he did it against better defenses than he faced in 09.

I don't know, it's probably a toss-up for me at this point, but I won't switch as of yet.

LeBron didn't have a jumpshot ? have we been watching the same PS ? during which part of /2nd Rd/ECFs/finals did LeBron lose his jumpshot ? I remember him torching the Celtics with bunch of midrange jumpshots from the midpost and low post, and then killing OKC with floaters and jumpshots off post ups.

FG% on 16-23 feet shots in the playoffs:
06-08: 30.2%
09: 48.6%
10: 38.9%
11: 37.8%
12: 33.3%

So clearly he made an improvement in 2009. His jumpshot in 2012 was off. In the Boston and OKC series combined, LeBron shot 28.3% on jumpshots (53.3% on other FG attempts).

[Dr Positivity]

When you say Walton's separated from Erving, while making clear that Kareem's above Walton in your mind, it raises an eyebrow for me.

I guess that's just the impression that I got from going back through that thread. It seemed like the real battle was between Kareem and Walton, with Julius being a very distant 3rd.

It's interesting that in that thread Walton and Kareem went down to the wire, and in this thread the separation is several spots on the all-time PEAK list. The voting in that particularly RPOY thread was one of the closest in the project in terms of separation between 1st and 2nd, so I guess that sort of shows how different the voters think from one project to the next. If they were indeed so close then you'd expect Walton to have gotten in at #6 just behind Kareem and ahead of Bird, and yet he may not even crack the top 10.

Definitely. In fact I think I remember voting for Walton that year, admittedly with my vote for Kareem being higher here. If we reran the RPOY my vote might be for Kareem this time, I may have underestimated how killer that season was.

With that said, a person could argue Walton was more important to HIS team in 77 and thus had the more impactful year, but Kareem's season is more valuable in a vacuum, if that makes sense. I could see someone calling the voters our for inconsistency though. Personally though the complaint seems stronger about the RPOY vote than in this project - that the voters were too biased by Walton winning the title and Kareem not in 77 and that if they both lost, Kareem likely blows him out in the voting - so for the purposes of this project it's probably irrelevant whether we may have made that RPOY vote too close

[therealbig3]

I'm pretty sure that Skip Bayless wouldn't let go of the fact that LeBron was dreadful on jump shots after game 6 against Boston.

And for the playoffs, LeBron's shooting from 16-23 feet was 36%, which isn't very good at all.

He had some big games that kept his percentages up (like game 1 against NY, game 4 against Indiana, and game 6 against Boston), but for the most part, he was a subpar outside shooter throughout the playoffs. He wasn't consistent at all.

That's kind of why it was still so impressive how he still kept dominating.

[Lightning25]

FG% on 16-23 feet shots in the playoffs

So does the regular season not matter or anything?

His % from 16-23 ft in 2012 was the same as it was in 2010 and 2009, and that is a bigger and better sample size since he played 60+ games in that sample size whereas he only played 10-20 games in the other.


His 16-23 shots were pretty much the same as they were for the past 3-4 seasons with 39-40%.

2009 - 40% (5.5 A)
2010 - 40% (5.4 A)

2012 - 39% (5.6 A)

If you are talking about the best playoff runs of all-time, you would have a point, but this is the best peak of all-time and regular season is apart of the season and the peak. This isn't just playoff exclusive.

You should also factor in and look at his percentages from 10-15 ft because that was the area he made a major improvement on heading into the 2012 season. He worked on his low/high post game and 10-15 ft is pretty much that area.

2009 - 25% (1.3 A)
2010 - 32.2% (1.2 A)

2012 - 47% (2.2 A)

It was a massive improvement.

Here are the numbers combining 10-15 ft with 16-23 ft...

Makes/attempts from 10-23 ft
.
2012: 3.2/7.8 = 0.410
2009: 2.5/6.8 = 0.368

Feel free to find the playoff numbers for those but those are the regular season numbers and percentages.

[ElGee]

FG% on 16-23 feet shots in the playoffs:
06-08: 30.2%
09: 48.6%
10: 38.9%
11: 37.8%
12: 33.3%

You have to try and think deeper when you post stats like these. Ask yourself more questions -- don't just rote post data. What's the giant obvious difference about LeBron's playoffs in 2008, 2010, 2011 2012 and 2009??

*Thinking**

The correct answer? He didn't play the Celtics in 2009.

Against non-Boston defenses, the results look like this:

2008: 34%
2009: 48%
2010: 47%
2011: 40%
2012: 31%

Then you should also include the sample size, which is 60-70 shots in 09, 11 and 12 (~30 in 08 and 10). Which means the difference between 2012 and 2009 on long 2's is about 11 makes (22 points). The difference between 2011 LeBron's "outside shot" -- why are we ignoring 3's here? -- and 2009 is 5 makes over the course of the playoffs. Well within standard variance on a 40% proposition. Of course, you should also note that in Miami he's taking 4 per game, down from the 5-6 he used to take in Cleveland.

If you want the quality of his outside, you should include the 3-ball too. Vs. Non-celtic teams, it looks like this:

2008: 33%
2009: 41%
2010: 48%
2011: 37%
2012: 31%

[therealbig3]

In the playoffs from 10-15 feet for LeBron:

09 (1.3 attempts/game): 44%
10 (0.6 attempts/game): 29%

12 (2.4 attempts/game): 42%

[Doctor MJ]

Definitely. In fact I think I remember voting for Walton that year, admittedly with my vote for Kareem being higher here. If we reran the RPOY my vote might be for Kareem this time, I may have underestimated how killer that season was.

With that said, a person could argue Walton was more important to HIS team in 77 and thus had the more impactful year, but Kareem's season is more valuable in a vacuum, if that makes sense. I could see someone calling the voters our for inconsistency though. Personally though the complaint seems stronger about the RPOY vote than in this project - that the voters were too biased by Walton winning the title and Kareem not in 77 and that if they both lost, Kareem likely blows him out in the voting - so for the purposes of this project it's probably irrelevant whether we may have made that RPOY vote too close

I think you should elaborate on "valuable in a vacuum". Clearly you're saying at least one of these players was in a situation abnormal enough that it isn't a good gauge of what typically could be expected. The obvious question in response to that is Why? What was it specifically about the other players on these teams that made each player so unusual in his impact compared to what you'd normally expect?

[therealbig3]

Since 2012 LeBron is getting discussed more and more (and since I find myself respecting his 2012 season more and more), here's how the Heat did offensively in the playoffs overall, and then series by series:

Overall: +8.4 (average DRating 101.2)

Vs NY: +11.9 (average DRating 101.0)
Vs Indiana: +3.5 (average DRating 103.1)
Vs Boston: +10.7 (average DRating 98.2)
Vs OKC: +11.9 (average DRating 103.2)

Some slight error is there in the calculation series by series, because if you average the weighted offensive values in each series, you get +9.3.

Either way, the 2012 Heat were dominant offensively in the playoffs, and outside of the Indiana series (in which they lost Bosh for the entire series, and Wade didn't wake up until the 2nd half of game 4), they were destroying opposing defenses, including Boston's defense.

[therealbig3]

FWIW, LeBron-led offenses from 09-12 in the playoffs:

09: +7.3
10: +3.7
11: +4.1
12: +8.4

So for people concerned about how well LeBron can lead an offense, his teams seem to do pretty well offensively in the playoffs. When he struggles (10 and 11), the offense is still around +4 (that's an elite offense), and when he plays well (09 and 12), the offense is historic.

[colts18]

Of course you know I agree with the overall sentiment of your post, but I do notice that "only the best in a weak year" is becoming a theme because KG's #1 finish in offensive RAPM came in the 2004 where some of the other contenders had down years. Which is fair.

I do feel like I should point out, though, that KG finished #2 in offensive RAPM (behind only Shaq) in the 2003 season that is used as one of the peak seasons for the powerhouses of his generation such as T-Mac, Kobe, Duncan and Dirk. KG was also top-5 in both PER and offensive win shares that season, leading the team with the #4 ranked offense in both scoring and assists. KG was also among the league leaders in offensive RAPM (#6), PER (#1), and offensive win shares (#4) while leading the #6 overall offense in both points and assists in 2005.

Just saying. KG's offense measured out right there at the top of the NBA at his peak whether the other offensive powerhouses were healthy or not. Making the claim that he was arguably the best offensive player in the league wasn't an asterisk fluke, nor was it limited entirely to 2004.

He had a good offensive season, but that didn't translate into the playoffs. He had a 100 O rating in the playoffs. Very mediocre for a superstar. Compare that to LeBron's 128, and Dirk's 125, thats a massive gap that KG isn't making up with his defense consider both LeBron and Dirk were solid defensive players. I value postseason more so LeBron and Dirk get a boost there, but in the regular season they were better than KG in the impact stats.

[therealbig3]

Again, the Celtics offense wasn't anything great with KG in 08, when he was still in his prime and he had two really good offensive players around him, and some decent role players.

I still don't get why he should be ranked ahead of Duncan. It's generally agreed Duncan can drag lesser supporting casts to better results, but the reason why KG is supposed to be better is because he can take good teams to better results than Duncan can.

But compare the 05 and 07 Spurs to the 08 Celtics, and I don't see why that would be the case. Duncan was a part of two really good teams, just like KG was with the 08 Celtics. He was having huge impact and was the reason why they were contenders, just like KG was with the 08 Celtics. The 05 and 07 Spurs were comparable teams to the 08 Celtics, and Duncan was having similar impact.

So if Duncan is pretty much equal in terms of being able to lift a good team to elite heights, and is a little better at lifting a mediocre team to above average heights (which can still be good enough to win a title, like in 03, if the competition is weak), doesn't that make him a little bit better?

[colts18]

FWIW, LeBron-led offenses from 09-12 in the playoffs:

09: +7.3
10: +3.7
11: +4.1
12: +8.4

So for people concerned about how well LeBron can lead an offense, his teams seem to do pretty well offensively in the playoffs. When he struggles (10 and 11), the offense is still around +4 (that's an elite offense), and when he plays well (09 and 12), the offense is historic.

Yeah, LeBron's offenses were elite in the playoffs:

12 LeBron +8.4
09 LeBron: +7.3
11 Dirk: +7.3
04 KG: -1.0

Now which one do you think doesn't belong in the discussion? Even Dirk's 2011 defense was elite (Mavs were -4.3, and the Mavs were -4.57 better on defense with Dirk on court). I like LeBron's 12 season, but I believe Dirk's 2011 run was better. The run where the Mavs went 2-7 without Dirk convinced me of his massive impact on the game. He is literally an offensive savant. Dirk beat 2 6+ SRS teams without HCA in huge upsets. KG lost to a team with a 4.35 SRS with his team having HCA.

[bastillon]

FWIW, LeBron-led offenses from 09-12 in the playoffs:

09: +7.3
10: +3.7
11: +4.1
12: +8.4

So for people concerned about how well LeBron can lead an offense, his teams seem to do pretty well offensively in the playoffs. When he struggles (10 and 11), the offense is still around +4 (that's an elite offense), and when he plays well (09 and 12), the offense is historic.

Yeah, LeBron's offenses were elite in the playoffs:

12 LeBron +8.4
09 LeBron: +7.3
11 Dirk: +7.3
04 KG: -1.0

Now which one do you think doesn't belong in the discussion? Even Dirk's 2011 defense was elite (Mavs were -4.3, and the Mavs were -4.57 better on defense with Dirk on court). I like LeBron's 12 season, but I believe Dirk's 2011 run was better. The run where the Mavs went 2-7 without Dirk convinced me of his massive impact on the game. He is literally an offensive savant. Dirk beat 2 6+ SRS teams without HCA in huge upsets. KG lost to a team with a 4.35 SRS.

good post, but that needs to be clarified. what was Lakers SRS with Kobe/Malone/Shaq all playing ? Lakers had tons of injuries that year. Malone missed half of the RS, Shaq had a toe injury, Kobe had a shoulder injury, at one point Payton was the guy leading the Lakers for christ's sake. so it's pretty safe to say the Lakers were ~7 SRS team when healthy and that was the case in the WCFs. also, Wolves lost Cassell at that point. Wolves s5: Olowokandi-KG-Hassell-Spree-D.Martin - ouch. you can't blame KG for losing in that series. particularly when Duncan had the same results with incomparably better supporting cast. Duncan totally disappeared after the first two games. Malone completely shut him down. Duncan was hopelessly ineffective.