Those aren't stats. That's counting.

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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#61 » by EvanZ » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:19 am

CablexDeadpool wrote:Just because one uses measurements and the scientific method doesn't make their findings without bias.


It reduces bias.

I can make numbers say anything.


Thought-terminating cliche.

A thought-terminating cliché is a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance. Though the phrase in and of itself may be valid in certain contexts, its application as a means of dismissing dissent or justifying fallacious logic is what makes it thought-terminating.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought-te ... lich.C3.A9
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#62 » by CablexDeadpool » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:41 am

EvanZ wrote:
CablexDeadpool wrote:Just because one uses measurements and the scientific method doesn't make their findings without bias.


It reduces bias.

I can make numbers say anything.


Thought-terminating cliche.

A thought-terminating cliché is a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance. Though the phrase in and of itself may be valid in certain contexts, its application as a means of dismissing dissent or justifying fallacious logic is what makes it thought-terminating.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought-te ... lich.C3.A9




Scientific Method does not reduce bias. Scientific Method can even confirm a bias or a preconceived belief. You can go into an experiment or an endeavor expecting to find any information that confirms your position therefore your findings can be bias influenced.

See Observer-expectancy effect.

A Double Blind is the best bet to reduce or even eliminate a bias.
ken6199 wrote:A Rocket's loss really brought out the best of people. It makes me realize this forum is filled with jobless scumbags with their only intention to come hate the team they hate and realize their anger from their life/job/wife/kids or whatever.


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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#63 » by EvanZ » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:45 am

CablexDeadpool wrote:

Scientific Method does not reduce bias. Scientific Method can even confirm a bias or a preconceived belief. You can go into an experiment or an endeavor expecting to find any information that confirms your position therefore your findings can be bias influenced.



If you follow the scientific method rigorously, personal bias should be reduced. That's kind of the whole point.

See Observer-expectancy effect.

A Double Blind is the best bet to reduce or even eliminate a bias.


Double blind testing is a specific technique for certain types of studies. You can't apply DBT to just anything you feel like. And, btw, the idea of DBT is obviously consistent with following the scientific method.

You are contradicting yourself within the same post.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#64 » by CablexDeadpool » Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:22 am

EvanZ wrote:
CablexDeadpool wrote:

Scientific Method does not reduce bias. Scientific Method can even confirm a bias or a preconceived belief. You can go into an experiment or an endeavor expecting to find any information that confirms your position therefore your findings can be bias influenced.



If you follow the scientific method rigorously, personal bias should be reduced. That's kind of the whole point.

See Observer-expectancy effect.

A Double Blind is the best bet to reduce or even eliminate a bias.


Double blind testing is a specific technique for certain types of studies. You can't apply DBT to just anything you feel like. And, btw, the idea of DBT is obviously consistent with following the scientific method.

You are contradicting yourself within the same post.


I am regarding to using the scientific method of it regarding using it in statistics to measure NBA players. Meaning using the standard, define the question etc.


You would need to use Blind tactics such as the Double Blind, which many people don't use when measuring players. Most use the stats and cherry pick to support their biases. Or even the eye test. Or they just assume.

One may believe a player like Wilt isn't skilled enough and was just a 7 foot tall player playing with a bunch of white stiffs and disregard him completely.

OR One can believe MJ is the greatest player ever and nobody can come close

OR believe the 70s and 80s is a defensively weak era


Many look at the stats and come up with a conclusion and since the stats say so it must "true."

Especially in regards to previous eras in the NBA and their only argument is stats without regarding for rule changes, such as the 3 point line and eliminating the physicality of the NBA.

Sorry I am all over the place. But what I am trying to say, using the standard scientific method, the prediction, observation etc, without using qualitative elements or blind elements yields extremely biased opinions which is then just spewed all over as fact.
ken6199 wrote:A Rocket's loss really brought out the best of people. It makes me realize this forum is filled with jobless scumbags with their only intention to come hate the team they hate and realize their anger from their life/job/wife/kids or whatever.


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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#65 » by EvanZ » Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:35 am

CablexDeadpool wrote:
Many look at the stats and come up with a conclusion and since the stats say so it must "true."



No doubt that people do this, and I'm not saying that's a good thing. But where is the "bias" in it? How does a number contain bias or cause the observer of the number to be biased? I'm not seeing the connection.

I ask because this issue came up the past few days in the GSW forum. Several members there also seem to be making the argument that I can only paraphrase as "numbers are just as biased as your eyes", which to me is nonsense. Nobody there has explained it to me in a satisfying way, so I'm hoping maybe you can enlighten me where they have failed.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#66 » by Nivek » Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:54 pm

The gist of what Cablex and Quants seem to be saying boils down to: Must consider context. To which I'd say: a) duh; and b) that's what any good statistical analyst does.

I don't know who "one" is or who "they" are. I know what I do when I use stats, and I know that I consider context. Every stat guy I know whose analysis is worth a damn consider context.

As for using "anecdotes" -- I'm dubious. It'd be sorta like trying to decide who won a golf tournament by letting people tell stories about who had the best swing. The stories might be great. They might even be accurate. But they won't tell me who got around the course with the fewest strokes.

As far as comparing, for example, Jordan vs. Oscar vs. Lebron (or whoever), there's are better methods than "back in my day..."

The stats are a record of what happened during the game. An imperfect record, no doubt, but far superior to "watching" or (as David Berri puts it) "staring at players." There's much to be learned from statistical analysis. Especially when the analyst is doing his best to reduce bias and understand what the numbers are actually saying.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#67 » by ElGee » Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:52 am

QuantMisleads wrote:I do despise, however, the intellectual dishonesty among some posters and their appeal towards what they think is scientific analysis.

You raise some important points that I didn't explicitly raise perhaps in my last few posts. There are two issues at play when I see someone resort to DRTG/ORTG or other advanced statistical numbers and then pin most of it on one player:
1) Preconceived biases
2) Using themes to support the quantitative.


I've never been called intellectually dishonest, so that's pretty neat. :)

Offensive rating and defensive rating are nothing "advanced." Should I assume you know this given your position of intellectual superiority over everyone in the room? ;)

So as I mentioned before, we try to find the numbers to support our hypothesis...big surprise there.


This is undoubtedly my favorite of your positions. Can you be so kind to tell me what my hypotheses were in each specific case, since you seem to have such a big problem with "them?" (I put them in quotes because I don't even understand what a hypothesis would be for trying to estimate pace before 1974..."I believe they used to play fast" I suppose was my hypothesis.)

For example, we want to rationalize why Wilt only won 2 championships. So the theme is created to explain away EVERY YEAR HE PLAYED AND LOST, and we use whatever statistical tool we can find to support it!


Do you think someone who launches a full-scale attack on someone else should at least be familiar with their positions first?

There is always going to be bias in our interpretations, but we're not doing the best of trying to root it out. The problem so much isn't with you guys, but that there are few educated dissenting voices. The problem with me is that I get easily angered at intellectual dishonesty so I can't seem to hang around for longer than a month, nor are my comments helpful in the right direction either because I'm too lazy to try to find the newspaper article or interview to rebut someone.


Yeah it's a basketball forum. I would think you'd want to enjoy it. And enjoy the game...but it sounds like you don't. I'm impressed I have so much power over you. :lol: (PS -- I have all the newspaper articles -- I'm probably one of the few people in the country who has read them.)

And for me, finding someone's dishonesty is particularly easy, even when it comes to people like ElGee, who has used 1965 and 1969(much like Bastillon, I might note) (without any historical analysis) to "prove" that Chamberlain had no impact when he switched teams.


You aren't reading closely. Sometimes I think this is my fault, but given that 75% of my posts on here lately are clarifying analytical positions, I really don't think that's the case anymore. I think it's people wanting to believe what they want to believe (cognitive biases) and then not hearing my message. I've never once said something about "proving" anything along these lines.

You might want to ask yourself why you think I've said that...
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#68 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:02 pm

CablexDeadpool wrote:What QuantMisleads is saying is that reality is subjective. Meaning your beliefs and biases and your perception makes your reality.

Using objective tools to in measurement or an experiment with an already preconceived assumption does not reveal the truth, it's only an educated opinion or bias that is presented as truth, the "scientist" points the data and numbers he has cherry picked with his assumption to "prove" his "truth" and everyone else sees his data and his theory and if it makes enough sense, it is "truth".

That is why double blind experiments are the best. It attempts to eliminate biases and assumptions.

So what QuantMisleads is trying to say. If I put Michael Jordan's career stats, with Oscars' and Lebron's stats and then say who is the better player.

Statistically speaking no doubt all of them impressive. But what if I wanna find out who is the better scorer, all 3 put up 27 a game or more points in a season. What if I wanna find out who is the better passer, all 3 has averaged more than 6 assists a season.

You can't get those things by just looking at stats, you would need to know the offensive system, the era, the teammates, their offensive skill set etc.

You would be looking more at historical data than anything else. It will be foolish for me to look at someone's PER and the pace and the points avg. and say it's Jordan.

What if I want to know who is the more athletic player between Oscar, Jordan and Lebron? There isn't a stat for that. Yes I can look at the combine measurements, but OJ Mayo has a 40 vert and he doesn't play as athletic as DWade who has a 35 inch vert. I would have to watch games and get anecdotes from people around them.

Qualitative Analysis and Quantitative Analysis goes hand in hand. The world isn't objective no matter how many measurements and stats you have. Objective tools can measure a subjective world to a certain extent, but you will still have biases and assumptions that will interfere with an objective endeavor.

Just because one uses measurements and the scientific method doesn't make their findings without bias.

I can make numbers say anything.


I want to respond here, and first say that Quant and I had a talk and I expect he's going to leave this thread alone. So I'm going to try, and I want other to try to leave Quant out of this as much as possible. Pretty unfair if we talk about him and he feels he can't respond.

If I take what you're saying as a representation of your own beliefs, this is a legit viewpoint which I'll try to address separate from what was before, and with as much politeness as possible.

To me what you're saying fundamentally is that use of science doesn't necessarily eliminate bias. Completely agree.

The real question is though: Does me using the scientific method in good faith make me more likely to have a bias, or is it more likely to reduce the bias?

If this answer is not obvious to you, then I'm rather flabbergasted. To me it's obvious it helps.

Now last, when you say:

CablexDeadpool wrote:I can make numbers say anything.


You can't though. You can put up numbers, and claim they say a certain thing...and if you're being unreasonable, people like us will tell everyone in the vicinity that you're wrong.

Now realistically in our society, one of the major problems is that most people don't have a group of experts they know and trust on their shoulder at all times as they move from discipline to discipline just trying to live their lives, and thus people end up having to take it on faith that strangers are honest experts...when the strangers are likely to be trying to sell them something.

That is a problem. And of course, if you don't trust your neighborhood stat buffs, you're still in that boat unless you get off your butt and learn to understand these things yourself (which you should do if you're going to spend this much time on basketball forums anyway).

What's unreasonable however, is to have mass attacks on the stat people on the grounds that they might be confused or they might be biased. I mean, if you want to say we're fallible that's fine, but saying "You're not infallible, therefore I'm going to ignore your analysis" is not a legit argument.

Anyone who wants to say, "I can't understand your argument. Not saying you're wrong, but unless I can understand it, it won't sway me.", I think that's totally fine (would hope they'd try to learn more going forward, but omniscience is not ever to be demanded of a conversation participant.). But to attack the character of people using novel techniques that have worked elsewhere essentially because they are using novel techniques that have worked elsewhere is never going to be a rational way to behave for an honest person.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#69 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:31 pm

CablexDeadpool wrote:Sorry I am all over the place. But what I am trying to say, using the standard scientific method, the prediction, observation etc, without using qualitative elements or blind elements yields extremely biased opinions which is then just spewed all over as fact.


Others have already chimed in, but I do feel compelled to say that when you talk about "the standard scientific method", you're already off on the wrong foot. "the standard scientific method" is something taught to middle school kids that is so simplistic that even at the high school level the teachers are banging their head against the wall due to the over-simplistic mindset.

Different scientists have to work in very different ways in order for it to actually make any kind of sense, and throughout all of it there is a community of other scientists who can score points if they find flaws with what you're doing.

Fundamentally the idea of science is also a recognition of limitations: correlation is not causation. We can prove things false, but we cannot prove things true. If he get theories that can be tested with predictions that keep proving correct again and again we'd be fools not to make use of the theories, but that's all we're doing.

Yes, on a basketball board the formality is typically not kept. This isn't a scientific journal, and if people insisted on treating it like one, no one would want to come here to have fun. So I'm not going to preface every post with "in my opinion" or "based the theory that...", but it's supposed to be a given that no one has a monopoly on explaining causality.

Of course as I say this, as I said before, we can prove things false, and if someone else is saying something that simply doesn't fit with facts, it has to be reasonable to bring up those facts. People asking, "If Wilt was so dominant as a scorer, how come his team offenses didn't do better?" are asking something that clearly should be asked when so many people simply assume certain things.

I'm sure that part of the problem here, is that what started out as simply asking the questions that needed to be asked let to productive discussion and analysis, and long periods of time that leaves people no longer phrasing things as a question. So now someone comes in with a "Wilt is the GOAT scorer" belief system, and people respond in the most succinct way possible. They simply cut to the end of the discussion that's already been had, and give their answer with a few bullet points for reasons. The answer then is sometimes too far away from the new poster's belief system and he comes to the conclusion that there's a village of crazy people here, and begins to extrapolate their moral failings.

To a certain point, there's nothing to be done. If a group of people are having a conversation where they discuss A, B, C, D, etc, and every few minutes someone new comes in and says, "What about C?", that group is going to lose patience. Of course if that new person said, "I'm getting stuck on C, could one of you help me when you get a chance?", people in the group are going to work with the guy. More often though on RealGM, the new person will actually say, "The answer is C. What's wrong with you idiots?"...oh, and sometimes, that new person isn't new, he's been banned before because he calls people who don't agree with him "idiots".

And heck, even if people had the patience of saints, and did use proper scientific terminology to prevent ignorant people from assuming that causality is known, where would that get them? After being the victim of a hit and run one time, the DA made a point to "coach" me to talk more like a normal person because he said that me using precise language about what is absolutely known would make normal people assume that I wasn't sure what I saw. It's really hard for me to imagine someone being anti-"scientific method" themselves speaking strictly in scientific terminology that makes explicit what the minor doubts are.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#70 » by QuantMisleads » Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:15 am

ElGee wrote:
Do you think someone who launches a full-scale attack on someone else should at least be familiar with their positions first?


I've read a few things you've said, otherwise I wouldn't have specifically mentioned you.

Yeah it's a basketball forum. I would think you'd want to enjoy it. And enjoy the game...but it sounds like you don't. I'm impressed I have so much power over you. :lol: (PS -- I have all the newspaper articles -- I'm probably one of the few people in the country who has read them.)


Well, I like it when people have interesting things to say, or interesting ways of putting it, I'm more of a spectator than a talker in a perfect world. In one, however, where most people will naturally converge to someone's position based on statistics rather than on qualitative data, my temperature rises. And you say you have newspaper articles, but I think I've seen you use them maybe once or twice. I'd appreciate it if you used at least as much of those as you used advanced statistics, because then you actually have a narrative in which you can tell your story that people can accept, even if they disagree with you.

You aren't reading closely. Sometimes I think this is my fault, but given that 75% of my posts on here lately are clarifying analytical positions, I really don't think that's the case anymore. I think it's people wanting to believe what they want to believe (cognitive biases) and then not hearing my message. I've never once said something about "proving" anything along these lines.


Yes, and this is like when you said you weren't making that argument about Duncan/Wilt in the other thread and told me I couldn't read, but bastillon then took you to the thread where you had said it...and, if it wasn't you that said it, you made it entirely unobvious that you were (continuing) to quote someone else. But by the way you were using punctuation and such, it seems like it was a statement you made. All I'm saying is I know what I read, and you remember not what you wrote.
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Re: Those aren't stats. That's counting. 

Post#71 » by ElGee » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:23 am

Well, I don't want you to get in trouble because I know Doc warned you about this thread. A few things to consider and then you're welcome to have the last word, or move the discussion to my blog where you won't get in trouble.

-If you don't want to accept that data convinces many people more than stories, you are going to be having a high temperature frequently. You can choose to do that if you want, but obviously it seems counterproductive to me. I used to tell stories, and I find them manipulative. Many people want information, and I provide them with that, often with the means to draw their own conclusions.

-You obviously didn't read the RPOY project. In it, I broke down GAME FILM. Game. Film. As in, full games. Do you have any idea how ridiculous this is? Oh, I also provided dozens of links to specific newspaper articles (how many people do you think know the MVP voting history in the ABA?) and literally EVERY old Sports Illustrated written on basketball from the years I participated (something like 64-85 - I don't remember exactly, but they are in the threads).

-Nah, I never said you couldn't read. You've conjured that up because you've assumed something negative about me. In this instance, you are correct in saying you know what you read, and I do not remember what i wrote. :)
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