#9 Highest Peak of All Time (Duncan '03 wins)

[MisterWestside]

He slightly improved, but not to the extend that he was able to overcome the decrease in playing level of the team around him.

Eh...compared to 2011 his prior-informed RAPM didn't change much but he was back to being more "LeBron-like" in every other category. He came ready to play in a lockout season in which alot of players fell off production wise, and his play closer to the basket made him more valuable in the playoffs. Your rant about the media "narrative" is spot-on, but I don't agree with the bolded part. He stepped up in an impressive way.

[Josephpaul]

6 for Timmy 03
4 for Lebon 09
Sound right ?

[Doctor MJ]

Okay, so by my count, the end Top 3 results are:

Duncan '03 - 6
LeBron '09 - 4
LeBron '12 - 3

I'll chat a bit more on this in the next thread and the project thread, but:

Duncan '03 wins

[ElGee]

I changed my vote. Not sure about others...

[lorak]

So if Elgee changed his vote then LJ 09 has 5 votes and of course I also changing back to LJ 09 so it's tie 6-6 between Duncan 03 and LeBron 09.

[mysticbb]

How did you get 6.58 SRS for the Thunder after the trade? In 16 games (doesn't include the final), I got OKC with a 7.77 SRS in the games Perkins played (8.5 MOV, -0.73 SRS).

Starting with game 57 and going to game 81. Well, we could remove 57 and 58 due to the fact the Thunder played those two games without a center. When Mohammed came in, they started to work much better.

Either way, the Thunder were an elite team. In the playoffs, they had a 7.13 SRS. So if you combine together, in the 29 games with Perkins, I got a total of 7.22 SRS entering the Thunder series. The Mavs beat close to 4 Elite teams in their run while being heavy underdogs during the playoffs. The more context there is, the better Dirk looks.

It just shows that the Thunder in 2011 were better against the league average than in 2012, and all while the league average in 2011 had a higher level than in 2012.

I would have really liked to see the 2012 playoffs with a healthy Rose and a Lamar Odom playing on the 2011 level (at least in comparison to the league average). I'm pretty sure the finals would have been Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls instead. And I guess a lot of people would not think of James as being better in 2012 than in 2009. Just the simple fact that the Heat were worse in comparison to the league average in 2012 than in 2011 seems to be completely overlooked. And all that while the league average level of play dropped in a similar fashion as back in 1999.

Eh...compared to 2011 his prior-informed RAPM didn't change much but he was back to being more "LeBron-like" in every other category. He came ready to play in a lockout season in which alot of players fell off production wise, and his play closer to the basket made him more valuable in the playoffs. Your rant about the media "narrative" is spot-on, but I don't agree with the bolded part. He stepped up in an impressive way.

A big part of him looking more "LeBron-like" was due to the league-wide drop in playing level while James stayed the same. He dominated inferior competition more in terms of production and efficiency. That made him the clearly best player in the league, but not per se better than in 2011. Also, James was more often in situations where he could succeed than in 2011, that added to his "better look". Play those 2012 Heat against the 2011 Mavericks and James looks worse again and the Heat would likely even lose in a more convincing way. Look at the teams the Mavericks beat in 2011 and compare that to the 2012 competition of the Heat. The Heat play a Knicks team in the first round with a banged up Baron Davis as their starting point guard and a banged up Amar'e Stoudemire. Then they play a overachieving Pacers team, which wouldn't been there, if Howard wouldn't have had the back injury. In the next round they get in trouble against an older Celtics team, which lost their best guard defender to an injury and has no backup point guard left. A washed up Ray Allen also causing chemistries problems, which lead to his departure, and yet, the Heat need 7 games to win against that 2.3 SRS team. In the finals they play against a OKC team which was actually worse against inferior competition than the 2011 version. And then we look at the Mavericks in 2011 beating two teams which are basically on the level of the 2012 Thunder (Blazers and Lakers) and two superior teams than anything the Heat saw in 2012 (Thunder and Heat). That is the reality here, and people seem to completely ignore that and just focus on the fact that James looked better against worse competition in 2012 while having the ball much more often in his hands than in 2011? Yeah, he better looks better than in 2011, if we don't want to claim that he actually declined.

[Doctor MJ]

So if Elgee changed his vote then LJ 09 has 5 votes and of course I also changing back to LJ 09 so it's tie 6-6 between Duncan 03 and LeBron 09.

DS, I'm sorry, you didn't switch the vote before the deadline. Duncan '03 still wins.

[EGarrett]

In a season where the top stories figure to be the Lakers dream team and LeBron James, keep an eye on the Timberwolves! "

http://www.82games.com/comm1.htm

The more things change...the more they stay the same.

[MisterWestside]

A big part of him looking more "LeBron-like" was due to the league-wide drop in playing level while James stayed the same. He dominated inferior competition more in terms of production and efficiency. That made him the clearly best player in the league, but not per se better than in 2011.

Drop-off by everyone else is correct, but James staying the same? I mean, he did set career highs in ts% and oreb% while creating more shots in 2012 than 2011. The man made a concreted effort to play a more closer to the basket game this season and it showed. I wouldn't call that "staying the same" while everyone else dropped.

Also, James was more often in situations where he could succeed than in 2011, that added to his "better look". Play those 2012 Heat against the 2011 Mavericks and James looks worse again and the Heat would likely even lose in a more convincing way.

Don't agree with this either. We both agree that the media made way too much (surprise!) of LeBron's so-called "disappearing act" in the 2011 Finals and that the Mavs played great defense to keep him from getting to his spots on the floor, but I think that 2012 LeBron would play better against that team simply because he was more comfortable on the block. Instead of settling more for the long jump shot, he would have taken his game closer to the rim. Just my .02.

[bastillon]

In the next round they get in trouble against an older Celtics team, which lost their best guard defender to an injury and has no backup point guard left. A washed up Ray Allen also causing chemistries problems, which lead to his departure, and yet, the Heat need 7 games to win against that 2.3 SRS team.

let's get some things straight:
*Rondo was causing chemistry issues, not Ray Allen
*Celtics also lost JO, which wouldn't be a problem in the first place because JO sucks...except their only backup big is Stiemmsma
*Celtics SRS was very misleading. they were 15-17 pre-ASG, 24-10 post-ASG, 32-15 post-ASG + PS. I don't know what their SRS was post-ASG but it was surely a lot better than 2.3.

[C-izMe]

In the next round they get in trouble against an older Celtics team, which lost their best guard defender to an injury and has no backup point guard left. A washed up Ray Allen also causing chemistries problems, which lead to his departure, and yet, the Heat need 7 games to win against that 2.3 SRS team.

let's get some things straight:
*Rondo was causing chemistry issues, not Ray Allen
*Celtics also lost JO, which wouldn't be a problem in the first place because JO sucks...except their only backup big is Stiemmsma
*Celtics SRS was very misleading. they were 15-17 pre-ASG, 24-10 post-ASG, 32-15 post-ASG + PS. I don't know what their SRS was post-ASG but it was surely a lot better than 2.3.

Don't forget Pierce was injured too.

[mysticbb]

Drop-off by everyone else is correct, but James staying the same? I mean, he did set career highs in ts% and oreb% while creating more shots in 2012 than 2011. The man made a concreted effort to play a more closer to the basket game this season and it showed. I wouldn't call that "staying the same" while everyone else dropped.

His TS% was 0.1 higher than in 2010. Give him the same FT% as in 2010 and the values become the same. Also, James had 62 TS% for the first half, in the second half it was 59 TS%. While the league overall level increased from the first to the second half, James dropped.
His higher ORB% is also a result of him playing much more often the PF position than ever before. Playing closer to the basket will lead to more offensive rebounds. And, he had a similar ORB% in 2008. Put him into a similar position in 2011 more often and he will look similar.

If we compare the numbers without Wade in 2011 and in 2012, we see a similar player, 31.0/6.5/6.3 per 36 min with 58 TS% vs. 30.2/7.3/5.7 per 36 min with 59 TS%. The team has a similar scoring margin (+2.7 vs. +2.5 per 36 min). The difference is seen in rebounds, where he had some more, and assists, where he had some less. The difference between 2011 and 2012 are more minutes without Wade, more minutes at PF and in the playoffs worse opponents. Put the 2011 James into the same situation as the 2012 James and he would look very similar.

Don't agree with this either. We both agree that the media made way too much (surprise!) of LeBron's so-called "disappearing act" in the 2011 Finals and that the Mavs played great defense to keep him from getting to his spots on the floor, but I think that 2012 LeBron would play better against that team simply because he was more comfortable on the block. Instead of settling more for the long jump shot, he would have taken his game closer to the rim. Just my .02.

I doubt that the 2011 Mavericks would have allowed James to receive the ball as often closer to the basket as the teams he faced. The team defense was set to deny James the ball in halfcourt. You must assume that the Mavericks would change their approach here, otherwise it is not reasonable to assume that James would be more often in the post. And, even when you try to force the ball more often to James, you would just take the ball away from Wade, while the Mavericks defense made it easier to give the ball to Wade. Well, it was not like Wade couldn't do anything with the ball, in fact he was pretty efficient. Maybe James' numbers would increase, but I don't think the playing level of the 2012 Heat would have been higher than the level of the 2011 Heat. It is not like the 2011 Heat played incredible bad basketball. They still had 107.9 ORtg against a team wich held the Blazers, Lakers and Thunder combined in average to 105.7 ORtg, they held a team to 110.7 ORtg which had 113.8 in average in the previous rounds, the Mavericks played 5 points worse per 100 possession than in the rounds before against teams which were in average at about 6 SRS (look at the numbers after the trade deadline for the Blazers and Thunder!), those Mavericks just played at an incredible high level, they had a +7.1 scoring margin against 6 SRS teams, and then the Heat lost by an average of 2.3. It just seems as people trying to convince themselves that the Mavericks success was some sort of fluke, and that they just had incredible luck, but the reality is that those Mavericks played at a really high level. No way the 2012 Heat are beating such a team.

[MisterWestside]

His TS% was 0.1 higher than in 2010. Give him the same FT% as in 2010 and the values become the same.

Okay, but I thought we were using these values as they relate to James in Miami. My original point was that he went back to a more "LeBron-esque" level in 2012.

His higher ORB% is also a result of him playing much more often the PF position than ever before. Playing closer to the basket will lead to more offensive rebounds. And, he had a similar ORB% in 2008. Put him into a similar position in 2011 more often and he will look similar.

Didn't deny that playing closer to the basket didn't help with that:

I mean, he did set career highs in ts% and oreb% while creating more shots in 2012 than 2011. The man made a concreted effort to play a more closer to the basket game this season and it showed.

But this is LeBron working to "fit" his game with his new team better. Instead of playing the more perimter-based "drive and kick" game to set up his shooters in Cleveland, he played the post some more in '12 Miami. This allowed him to get back more to being the productive player he was as a Cavalier despite playing in a new team dynamic.

If we compare the numbers without Wade in 2011 and in 2012, we see a similar player, 31.0/6.5/6.3 per 36 min with 58 TS% vs. 30.2/7.3/5.7 per 36 min with 59 TS%.

The team dynamic also changes without Wade on the floor.

And, even when you try to force the ball more often to James, you would just take the ball away from Wade, while the Mavericks defense made it easier to give the ball to Wade. Well, it was not like Wade couldn't do anything with the ball, in fact he was pretty efficient. Maybe James' numbers would increase, but I don't think the playing level of the 2012 Heat would have been higher than the level of the 2011 Heat.

LeBron outside jumper/threeball was a bit flat in the Finals (compared to earlier rounds), and he committed some careless TOVs on the wings. Playing closer to the rim would have at least allowed him to stay effective in both areas and perhaps draw some more foul opportunities -- he wouldn't even have to take more possessions from Wade. Turn some of those long jumper misses in the Finals into easy buckets on the block and the Heat are going for a threepeat.

[mysticbb]

Okay, but I thought we were using these values as they relate to James in Miami. My original point was that he went back to a more "LeBron-esque" level in 2012.

And as I said, I don't see it that way at all. Put the 2011 James on the 2012 Heat, he would likely look very, very similar.

But this is LeBron working to "fit" his game with his new team better. Instead of playing the more perimter-based "drive and kick" game to set up his shooters in Cleveland, he played the post some more in '12 Miami. This allowed him to get back more to being the productive player he was as a Cavalier despite playing in a new team dynamic.

That's where you are wrong. The Heat shifted minutes in the frontcourt around (losing Ilgauskas at C for example and playing Bosh more C) while adding a wing player in Shane Battier. The team around him changed, forced a different situation. The 2011 James would have reacted similar to that, heck the 2008 James played more in the post too.

The team dynamic also changes without Wade on the floor.

For sure, but it also shows that even in 2011 James in a different situation performed different. That is simply what happened with James in 2012 as well for the most part. James was in a different situation, thus playing different.

LeBron outside jumper/threeball was a bit flat in the Finals (compared to earlier rounds), and he committed some careless TOVs on the wings. Playing closer to the rim would have at least allowed him to stay effective in both areas and perhaps draw some more foul opportunities -- he wouldn't even have to take more possessions from Wade. Turn some of those long jumper misses in the Finals into easy buckets on the block and the Heat are going for a threepeat.

See, in 2011 there was no Battier playing on the wings instead, there was Bosh, who occupied the room James would used instead. You would push Bosh out or the other C's out of the game entirely. Assuming that all players would then perform at the same level while James' improvement would just lead to a better team is a mistake here.

[MisterWestside]

And as I said, I don't see it that way at all. Put the 2011 James on the 2012 Heat, he would likely look very, very similar.

The 2011 James would have reacted similar to that, heck the 2008 James played more in the post too.

Perhaps. But you can't sit there and tell me that him playing in the post more was merely a reaction to personnel changes. From LeBron working with Hakeem over the summer, to Spoelstra designing a new offense to get LeBron/Wade to play on the post more and cut out their long-ball shooting, to LeBron using more of his team's possessions in the playoffs to incorporate more plays on the block - simply assuming that these changes weren't at all motivated by the team's "shortcomings" the previous year is misguided, don't you think?

For sure, but it also shows that even in 2011 James in a different situation performed different. That is simply what happened with James in 2012 as well for the most part. James was in a different situation, thus playing different.

This doesn't necessarily address the point that LeBron played a different type of game in 2012 than 2011, even with Wade on the floor with him.

See, in 2011 there was no Battier playing on the wings instead, there was Bosh, who occupied the room James would used instead. You would push Bosh out or the other C's out of the game entirely.

Not at all. I'm simply talking about the possessions in which James had the ball and made a play. Instead of some of those long jumpers that he missed, he would be taking those shots on the block, and he was more comfortable with that in 2012 than 2011. And even though Bosh is a fine player, I think I'd rather let LeBron create a shot during a possession than Bosh whenever possible.

[mysticbb]

Perhaps. But you can't sit there and tell me that him playing in the post more was merely a reaction to personnel changes. From LeBron working with Hakeem over the summer, to Spoelstra designing a new offense to get LeBron/Wade to play on the post more and cut out their long-ball shooting, to LeBron using more of his team's possessions in the playoffs to incorporate more plays on the block - simply assuming that these changes weren't at all motivated by the team's "shortcomings" the previous year is misguided, don't you think?

Do you think the plan was to play worse? Do you honestly believe that they thought, guess what, we played too good last season, we just want to play worse. So, let put James on the block instead of Bosh, let our interior defense suffer to make room for Battier and Mike Miller and lets make Wade look worse. That is our plan for the season, maybe we get lucky and Rose and Howard are getting injured, the Celtics losing their bigs besides Garnett, and in the finals we are getting a team with a weak frontcourt. Yeah, sounds like a great idea ...

Honestly, most of that was due to circumstances. Yes, you can run some more plays with James in the post, but at the end of the day that is a TEAM game, and misusing the rest of the team in order to make a single player look better is foolish. Give the Heat a better frontcourt option at C and a healthy Bosh, see how James looks a bit worse again and the team gets better overall. The thing is, they likely did not have a chance to improve their frontcourt, they had not planned with Wade getting injured and have trouble, they didn't plan to play Bosh much more at C at the start of the season. They just signed Battier, because they were afraid Mike Miller is out again, and they become incredible thin on the wing again. In order to win it all, you need to be able to put ALL players into better position for them to succeed.

I think a lot of that is just winning bias. It worked against weaker opponents than last season, now we assume the Heat would have also won against the better competition from last season with the same strategy. That is not how it works. That Heat team 2012 might end up losing to the 2011 Bulls.

Not at all. I'm simply talking about the possessions in which James had the ball and made a play. Instead of some of those long jumpers that he missed, he would be taking those shots on the block, and he was more comfortable with that in 2012 than 2011. And even though Bosh is a fine player, I think I'd rather let LeBron create a shot during a possession than Bosh whenever possible.

Yeah, because the Mavericks would have just taken out Nowitzki and Chandler and would have let Barea and Terry handle the post. :roll:
Do you think that James is a better post player than Pau Gasol? Do you think that Bosh is a better wing player than James? Do you think it is wise to have James matched up with Nowitzki on the defensive end? Or let him handle Chandler?
There was a reason James didn't receive the ball in halfcourt near the post; the Mavericks defense actually tried hard for that. Now you just assume they let him catch the ball closer? Or do you think James should start on the perimeter with the post-up and then just get doubled and having Bosh taking outside shots instead? You can't just simple assume that you can put a player into a different position on the court without changing it up for the rest of the team. You put other players into different roles, roles they probably or even likely not comfortable with. That doesn't equate to more team success per se, as you assume it would.

[MisterWestside]

Yeah, because the Mavericks would have just taken out Nowitzki and Chandler and would have let Barea and Terry handle the post.
Do you think that James is a better post player than Pau Gasol? Do you think that Bosh is a better wing player than James? Do you think it is wise to have James matched up with Nowitzki on the defensive end? Or let him handle Chandler?

Huh? What do any of these things have to do with what I said? And what's with your tone in that post? You're not the world's sole authority on basketball -- get over yourself already and at least defend your points in a civil manner. Okay?

Moving forward...

There was a reason James didn't receive the ball in halfcourt near the post; the Mavericks defense actually tried hard for that. Now you just assume they let him catch the ball closer?

Yes, the Mavs played good defense. Didn't say or imply otherwise. But it's not like they didn't do their homework on LeBron's weaknesses -- one of them being that at the time he was more comfortable on the perimeter than the post, and they baited him to settle more often. It's not always about the defense playing good defense; the offensive player can beat himself by not using his possessions wisely. 2012 LeBron didn't have that flaw with his more focused commitment to post play. Are you assuming that he/the Heat couldn't take advantage of that?

Or do you think James should start on the perimeter with the post-up and then just get doubled and having Bosh taking outside shots instead?

Bosh is a good midrange shooter though, and who says he just has to take outside shots anyway? And is he the only other player on the floor? The weakside would open up for open looks for shooters like Chlamers, Miller, etc. And this still doesn't address my point about LeBron simply swapping his own long-jumper possessions for better shots down-low.

You can't just simple assume that you can put a player into a different position on the court without changing it up for the rest of the team.

And I never did that. Just saying to trade some of his long jumpers for closer shots.

[mysticbb]

Huh? What do any of these things have to do with what I said? And what's with your tone in that post? You're not the world's sole authority on basketball -- get over yourself already and at least defend your points in a civil manner. Okay?

Do you honestly think the Heat staff wouldn't have realised that as well during the finals? Making an adjustment in order to compensate? James posted up successfully many times before the 2011 finals, but now all of the sudden he lost that ability? Don't you get that he simple wasn't in a good position to do that during the finals? Don't you get that this is just your own belief you are trying to defend. And frankly, I get tired of that, which explains my "tone".

I'm not the one proclaiming that James would have just needed to change his game up a bit, you are the one, pretending that James became incredible better at that and thus can now be considered some great post-up threat who can easily post-up against Nowitzki or Chandler, when even a guy like Pau Gasol had HUGE trouble doing it. A 7ft guy, way more skilled in the post than James gets completely shut down by the Mavericks interior defense, but you just assume that James can get that easily done. The Mavericks slowed down Aldridge, they took out Gasol, they took out most of Bosh's post play (which is also superior to James'), but you just want to ignore that. And on top of that you ignore that in a TEAM game, you can't just easily move everything around and expect to get the same from those players. Yeah, maybe James looks a bit better, if he gets some more plays in the post, but how about the other players? Oh yeah, true, it wasn't a problem in 2012, right?

I just try to imagine the conversation between the Heat coaching staff and James during the 2011 finals:

Staff: LeBron, take it to the hoop, post them up when Barea or Terry are on you.
James: Oh well, I'm not comfortable with that, they are badass dudes, you know!
Staff: LeBron, you can do that, don't worry.
James: Nah, I just don't feel it, they probably will hurt me.

Well, I just think that it is far more reasonable that James just didn't receive the ball in situation in which a post-up was actually really the right decision. Because you have to take into account possible double teams (Kidd's quick hands), possible weakside help (Chandler), possible offensive fouls (refs like to call that on the bigger guy), timing (shot clock usage), etc. pp.

[MisterWestside]

Don't you get that this is just your own belief you are trying to defend. And frankly, I get tired of that, which explains my "tone".

I could say the exact same thing about you. The only difference is that I simply presented/defended my take here without the attitude, "right" or not. Why can't you do the same?

Thanks for the debate.

[mysticbb]

I could say the exact same thing about you.

You could. But do you honestly think that it is unreasonable "to believe" that a change up for one player, would change the whole game dynamics? You make it sound as if that is just simple to put James into a better position for a post-up. If it would have been so simple, the Heat would have done it in 2011. The latter is my take, the former is yours. Even if we assume that James got so much better with that, we still have to see that he needs to be in a position to use that "better skill". Don't you agree with that?
And if James is in a different position, don't you think that this changes the dynamic as well? The changed dynamic this season was partially responsible for Wade getting worse looks too. If you want James to be in a better position for a post-up, you need to make changes to the set plays in order to have someone making a proper entry pass. They tried it against the Mavericks a couple of times, and Bibby and Chalmers failed with it. Sometimes just leading to a steal by Kidd.

The whole discussion reminds me a bit on the situation with Bryant and his new added post-up game. I was unimpressed with that, because I saw no value for the Lakers. They have multiple guys who were comfortable in the post, they could have more used better 3pt shooting and better off-ball defense on the perimeter. What was the result? The Lakers offense got worse. The blame was on everyone else, because they had to adapt to Bryant's post-game?
Yes, the Heat this season needed someone getting better in the post. James taking on that role was very reasonable, but the Heat also became worse. It is not like the post-up game is a high efficient option for James. And they had better perimeter options this season as well. So, it makes sense. But that looked different in 2011. And overall the Heat still became worse, they still performed in average worse than in 2011.

You don't want to argue that a better free throw shooting James and a better 3pt shooting would have made a difference. Two things which would have not needed shifts in terms of plays for the Heat. Those things could have been integrated into the thought process while it is very reasonable to expect everyone else is unchanged. But changing the positions on the court and expecting no change for the rest of the team, sounds not in the slightest way reasonable to me.

The only difference is that I simply presented/defended my take here without the attitude, "right" or not. Why can't you do the same?

Because it irks me, when someone tries to explain to me that 1+1=3 and not 2. You agreed that the media narrative about James in 2011 was wrong, but then you go on with an idea which is basically based on the same narrative; James was afraid of posting up against smaller players, he didn't feel as comfortable with that as in 2012. If James had the same confidence in his post game as in 2012, the Heat would have won. That is your statement, and looking at the strength of the Mavericks defense and the implied change to the Heat offense, I don't see any reason for that. The Heat didn't lose due to incredible bad offense, they lost, because they couldn't play out their strength in transition as much. When the Mavericks made mistakes on offense, when the Heat defense was able to disrupt the Mavericks' ball movement, the Heat went out in transition and were able to build up leads. When the Mavericks made less mistakes, the Heat lost ground. That was the Heat strength, being disruptive on the defense end while being the best in transition. The Mavericks limited that with their offensive game, making it tough for the Heat to get those easy opportunities in transition. That was a bigger key here than James' supposed fear to postup smaller guys.