#12 Highest Peak of All Time (Walton '77 wins)

[PTB Fan]

Vote: '77 Walton.

Too tired from my 7 day holiday in Greece to look back for the old posts.

Will do that tomorrow.

[bastillon]

For me these are super hard questions historically and I find myself drifting away from the team success years in many cases:

02 Duncan > 03 Duncan
03 Garnett > 04 Garnett?
94 Robinson > 95 Robinson
93 Hakeem > 94 Hakeem?

and so on...

being fan of both Hakeem and Garnett I agree 100%. to me 2003 KG was insane. I have no idea how he dragged those scrubs to 50W and then competed against the Lakers. 93 Hakeem is probably the most perfect big man ever for me, he's Michael Jordan playing center. 02 Duncan was very impressive with his defense in the postseason. he could hit free throws too.

[An Unbiased Fan]

For those who weren't there, I always encourage getting a barometer with something like POMs. http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/pom.html

It's a slightly different type of vote than MVP (less team, more statistical, shorter peak bursts of play), but it gives you a feel of how "high" someone was regarded in certain seasons and throughout certain seasons. Note the guys we've enshrined so far (post 1980):

Bird 86 2x POM (coming off a 2x POM year in 85)
Magic 87 2x POM
Jordan 91 2x POM (coming off 2x year in 90)
Hakeem 94 1x (coming off 2x in 93)
Shaq 00 3x!
Duncan 03 0x (coming off 2x in 02)
Garnett 04 4x (split votes, coming off 2 of last 3 in 03)
LeBron 09 4x (split votes, coming off 2 in 08)

And yes, one thing you might notice is Garnett thrashing Duncan in the overlapping years that were discussed so...oh wait, they weren't discussed.

That's interesting, though I would also say it's hard to gauge because of split conferences after 2001. Perhaps if we could go back and compare the East vs West winners, then they could yield a more accurate picture. For example, I doubt Boozer's 21/13 month in Feb 10', would beat out LBJ's 33/7/11 month in the East.

[JordansBulls]

For those who weren't there, I always encourage getting a barometer with something like POMs. http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/pom.html

It's a slightly different type of vote than MVP (less team, more statistical, shorter peak bursts of play), but it gives you a feel of how "high" someone was regarded in certain seasons and throughout certain seasons. Note the guys we've enshrined so far (post 1980):

Bird 86 2x POM (coming off a 2x POM year in 85)
Magic 87 2x POM
Jordan 91 2x POM (coming off 2x year in 90)
Hakeem 94 1x (coming off 2x in 93)
Shaq 00 3x!
Duncan 03 0x (coming off 2x in 02)
Garnett 04 4x (split votes, coming off 2 of last 3 in 03)
LeBron 09 4x (split votes, coming off 2 in 08)

And yes, one thing you might notice is Garnett thrashing Duncan in the overlapping years that were discussed so...oh wait, they weren't discussed.

It's a shame they decided to make POM into the West and then East Conferences instead of one POM for the entire league like it used to be.

[colts18]

I don't think it's impossible for David Robinson to have been a better player at his peak. I do see Walton having a defensive advantage AND an offensive one though. I'll take a high-post, passing hub, outside shooting big man on offense who fits with a billion types of teams and can score 15 or 30 depending on what you need over someone who seems miles behind as a passer, and worse as a screener and BBIQ guy, etc. (although Robinson can be very active around the hoop). Of course, Walton might not look as good if you trade him to a different as well...

Walton fits a billion types of teams offensively except one where he has to be leading scorer and creator for the team (11 Bulls, 01 Sixers, 95 Spurs, 94 Rockets). I don't see Walton as that great of an offensive player because he couldn't draw fouls and wasn't that efficient. He was averaging 3 FTA/game in his peak. It might be better than Robinson's peak, but that's because Robinson wet the bed from 94-96.

Defensively, I like Walton more. Higher motor and smarter. We don't know exactly how the DRtg of the teams stacks up, we don't know the on/off or DRAPM, etc. but we do know we are talking about sizable effects with both. Individually, Robinson's about a 24% DREB% man on teams ranging from even (93) to +320 (92) in rebounding differential. Walton's a GOAT-level 32-34% DREB% guy on +160 to +260 differential teams (with him missing 25% of the season, it's reasonable to think the effect would be larger). Walton's a 5% blk% guy basically, Robinson is more like 6%. But the motor and IQ is Walton's biggest edge -- just never really seen someone so active with such court coverage.

Walton might be a better offensive player, but to me Robinson is clearly the better defensive player. Just look at his impact in 92:

-68 G played: 102.6 D rating, 70.4 Dreb%, .512 TS%, +4.7 MOV
-14 G missed: 111.6 D rating (-9 D rating drop), 65.6 Dreb%, .534 TS% (2.2 TS% drop), -3.3 MOV (+8 with Robinson than without)
+9 D rating difference, -4.8 Dreb%, +2.2 TS%, +8 MOV
-Playoffs w/o Drob: 119.6 D rating, 63.2 Dreb%, .578 TS%, -9 MOV

With Robinson, the defense is -2.12 from the mean. To put that into perspective:

04 Pistons: -1.98 Standard Deviations
04 Spurs: -2.32 Standard Deviations

The 04 Spurs are the #1 defense ever by D rating minus League average. So they were an all-time GOAT defense with Robinson. Old Robinson from 01-03 is probably just as good defensively as peak Walton.

[Narigo]

Erving stuff

good post

[ervee]

Kobe 01/03/06/07/08 is better than any version of Erving. What a joke. ABA lol.

[ardee]

Kobe 01/03/06/07/08 is better than any version of Erving. What a joke. ABA lol.

Welcome back Revv/Devve. We'll see you waived soon

On a serious note, I suggest you read up on Erving and his performances.

[ElGee]

I don't think it's impossible for David Robinson to have been a better player at his peak. I do see Walton having a defensive advantage AND an offensive one though. I'll take a high-post, passing hub, outside shooting big man on offense who fits with a billion types of teams and can score 15 or 30 depending on what you need over someone who seems miles behind as a passer, and worse as a screener and BBIQ guy, etc. (although Robinson can be very active around the hoop). Of course, Walton might not look as good if you trade him to a different as well...

Walton fits a billion types of teams offensively except one where he has to be leading scorer and creator for the team (11 Bulls, 01 Sixers, 95 Spurs, 94 Rockets). I don't see Walton as that great of an offensive player because he couldn't draw fouls and wasn't that efficient. He was averaging 3 FTA/game in his peak. It might be better than Robinson's peak, but that's because Robinson wet the bed from 94-96.

Isn't it really weird then that Walton was the leading scorer AND distributor on the 1978 Trailblazers that were a 9 SRS team with him in the lineup for 58 games? How do you explain this? You explain this because he couldn't draw fouls??? Drawing fouls? What does that have to do with outside shooting, high post passing and outlet passing?

I'm glad you were critical enough to think of outlying teams Walton wouldn't fit well on...except why would we care about how Walton does on absolutely garbage offensive teams? You don't think he could lift them to mediocrity while making the defense monstrous even after, in all likelihood, leading Portland to the top ORtg in the league in 1978?

Look, you can't have it both ways. Either the pace barely increase with Walton in, in which case the offense looked like this:

1977 w/out Walton: +0.0
1977 w Walton: +5.2

1978 w/out Walton: -3.4
1978 w/Walton: +4.5

Both would be good enough for tops in the league on offense. If you think they played faster, then the defense becomes historic. Either way, in 2 years and 112 games, the Blazers played +8.5 SRS basketball with Walton in, and in 39g without him (control for Lucas, include PS) -2.2 without him. A 35-win team turned into a 64-win team with some combination of his offense and defense...

Defensively, I like Walton more. Higher motor and smarter. We don't know exactly how the DRtg of the teams stacks up, we don't know the on/off or DRAPM, etc. but we do know we are talking about sizable effects with both. Individually, Robinson's about a 24% DREB% man on teams ranging from even (93) to +320 (92) in rebounding differential. Walton's a GOAT-level 32-34% DREB% guy on +160 to +260 differential teams (with him missing 25% of the season, it's reasonable to think the effect would be larger). Walton's a 5% blk% guy basically, Robinson is more like 6%. But the motor and IQ is Walton's biggest edge -- just never really seen someone so active with such court coverage.

Walton might be a better offensive player, but to me Robinson is clearly the better defensive player. Just look at his impact in 92:

-68 G played: 102.6 D rating, 70.4 Dreb%, .512 TS%, +4.7 MOV
-14 G missed: 111.6 D rating (-9 D rating drop), 65.6 Dreb%, .534 TS% (2.2 TS% drop), -3.3 MOV (+8 with Robinson than without)
+9 D rating difference, -4.8 Dreb%, +2.2 TS%, +8 MOV
-Playoffs w/o Drob: 119.6 D rating, 63.2 Dreb%, .578 TS%, -9 MOV

With Robinson, the defense is -2.12 from the mean. To put that into perspective:

04 Pistons: -1.98 Standard Deviations
04 Spurs: -2.32 Standard Deviations

The 04 Spurs are the #1 defense ever by D rating minus League average. So they were an all-time GOAT defense with Robinson. Old Robinson from 01-03 is probably just as good defensively as peak Walton.

There's something off about how you are calculating possessions. And I have no idea why you've switched to MOV when we have SRS and can opponent adjust...if we do that:

Robinson IN 1992 (68g) 4.3 SRS, -0.3 ORtg, -4.9 DRtg
Robinson OUT 1992 (17g) -4.0 SRS, +0.0 ORtg, +4.9 DRtg

-4.9 away from league average would be 65th best all-time, a little bit behind the 01 Suns. That's a top 5% defense by that metric. Of course, Robinson was replaced by Antoine Carr and the Spurs played without a true center for the last 17 games of the year, so there's always that to consider.

There was also another giant change to consider on the 92 Spurs. This guy named Larry Brown stopped coaching the team. Brown, it turns out, was a coach often inclined to heavily stack the deck toward the defense.

Brown's first 38 games: 33.2% OREB%
Bass' first 30 games: 35.7% OREB% (Robinson injured game 68)

The players didn't magically become better offensive bounders. Cummings missed a few games and so did Anderson, but this wasn't some individual changing the offensive rebounding culture, it was likely a change in strategy. Because, regardless of how much emphasis was taken off of Brown's defensive schemes for the offense, this happened:

Brown's first 38 games: -6.4 DRtg
Bass' first 30 games: -2.9 DRtg

Neither of those results say anything bad about Robinson or the Spurs D. And, as usual, they point to Brown being defensive-centric. But you should also be careful in how much you want to invest in a single team split metric like this...David Robinson didn't become a worse defensive player halfway through the 1992 season, but the 3.5 point drop here looks really large.

So if you were trying to control for variables -- and you should ALWAYS be trying to identify and control for such factors -- the Spurs defense in 1992 went from -2.9 (30g) to +4.9 (17g) with Antoine Carr replacing Robinson at center when the coaches were the same. (SRS went from 3.8 to -4.0.) The 7.7 raw change in DRtg is comparable to what we see from Rodman in 1993 (7.5, 23g), Sean Elliot in 93 (6.7, 12g), Mourning in 94 (7.9, 22g), 95 Hakeem (7.4, 9g), 92 Hakeem (10.8, 12g) and 05 Duncan (6.7, 13g controlling for Ginobili) just to name a few.

[PTB Fan]

Before I start, I want to give out major props to TheRegulat8or for his Walton and Dr J posts. Here's mine..

"The Portland Trail Blazers, formally announced the firing of Lenny Wilkens yesterday naming Jack Ramsey to succeed him as a coach of the National Basketball Association team. Ramsey, fired by Buffalo after guiding the Braves into the Eastern semi-conference finals, is the fourth coach of the Blazers, who joined in the 1970. Ramsey said, "I think this the best coaching opportunity in professional basketball, and I took the position here for that reason."

"I have great regard for the talent of this team" Ramsey said. "It is like an iceberg. What you see isn't the mass that is really there. Sure Bill Walton has to be healthy and play almost a full season if we are to achieve great success.

"I want a team that can run, a team that can make the transition from offense to defense and be aggressive when it gets to defense. Bill Walton is a great big man and he will give us up front quality. I am looking forward to his playing a major part of the schedule."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Mf ... lton&hl=en

"Depend on the health of center Bill Walton, this could be the turnaround season for the Portland Trail Blazers in the National Basketball Association. So far, Walton is healthy -- the healthiest he's ever been since he's turned pro -- and Portland is in a high state of optimism.

"Our future has to be now" says Ramsey, a successful veteran of the NBA wars who left Buffalo after three straight playoff seasons after falling out with the Braves front office. Ramsey admits Walton is the key to a turnaround. "I want at least 60 games out of Bill this season" he said. "If we get that, we will be in good shape."

Walton, the former UCLA All-American, can be awesome when healthy. But he was an injury prone in his first two pro seasons, getting in the equivalent of only one season's play over two years. For the first time, he came to training camp with no injuries:

"Walton is such a fine talent, so coachable, and unselfish." said Ramsey. "He does everything well. I like the spirit on this club. These players want to win. You can see it in practice and we saw it in exhibition games."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=1E ... lton&hl=en

"His third season's been a charm, so far, for big Bill Walton of the Portland Trail Blazers. The sometimes controversial redheaded is off to his best National Basketball Association start ever, and the reason is simple.

For the first time in his pro career, Walton's completely healthy. "I don't think about the injuries. I try to keep up in the best physical condition that I can prevent injuries, but I don't think about them" Walton says.[/b]

But he's had a bad reason to think a lot. He had nine broken bones of one kind or another in his first two NBA seasons. Coach Jack Ramsey wanted the 6-11 center, who was drafted No.1 from the UCLA in 1974, to come to camp a bit lighter this season. And he did -- about 10 pounds.

Ramsey thinks with less weight, there's less chances of an injury from pressure on the legs and knees. The Blazers have something of a new attitude under Ramsey, more of a team concept. But Walton says his attitude are about the same ever.

"I don't think I've changed. I have the same values and the same interests." says Walton, who turned 24 last week. Still bearded, he says he's got long hair cut for comfort, nothing else. The coach has nothing but praise for Walton.

"He is a blend of all the skills of the game" Ramsey says. "He'll do whatever is necessary to win, and that's all he's concerned about.

"I think he could be the most valuable player in pro basketball." But Walton, who has been a leading scorer for Portland and tops the league in rebounds so far in this season, says what counts in the end is the final tally on the scoreboard.

"I go by wins and loses and not by the boxscore. Boxscores are extremely misleading." Walton says. And he's glad to be mended. "It is pleasant to go to practices this season and be able to practice." [/i]

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=7P ... lton&hl=en

"The red ponytail is gone and so is the bandanna. So, too, are the aches and pains, the injuries that dogged Bill Walton through his first two years as a pro. "I'm healthy, that's the biggest difference" said Walton, who is playing the way Portland folks had hoped when they drafted him at No.1 in 1974 out of UCLA.

The 6-foot-11, 225 pounded is in great shape and is playing nearly 40 minutes a game. He still wears bandages on his knees, and after games he soaks his chronically sore feet in a tray of ice. But to have gone through seven weeks of the season with no injuries is a new experience, one he is enjoying.

"This is the most I've played in the NBA in one strach" Walton said following a 114-96 victory over the New York Knicks Tuesday night in which he contributed with 16 points, 15 rebounds and 8 blocked shots.

"Consistency, that's the most important thing," he said. "I've been able to develop all the areas of my game. When you play two weeks and then get hurt and sit out two weeks, you can't do that."

Ramsey who has nothing but praise for Walton, who leads the league in rebounds and blocked shots and is Portland's leading scorer at 21.1 points a game. "Bill's been just super" Ramsey said. "He's a very team first oriented guy. He's been working his tail off to help this team. He has great rapport with his teammates."

Walton, 24, is the captain of the Blazers. a position which he was voted to by other players. "It was nice of the guys to select me captain" he said with a smile. "but this team doesn't really need a captain to get them going. They know what to do, how to win games. But it was nice."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Ia ... lton&hl=en

"Center Bill Walton of the Portland Trail Blazers will not play Sunday in the National Basketball Association All-Star Game in Milwaukee because of an inflamed Achilles tendon. He will be replaced by Don Buse of the Indiana Pacers.

Walton, who leads the NBA in rebounds and blocked shots, hasn't played in two weeks because of the injury. He said there has been noticeable improvement in the injury in the past three days."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=NB ... lton&hl=en

"A jubilant coach Jack Ramsey called it the return "of the old Portland Trail Blazers" and the New Orleans Jazz felt the sting, losing 131-104 in a National Basketball Association game here Tuesday night.

The win broke a three-game Portland losing streak and put the Blazers back within 2 and half games within the leading Los Angeles in the Pacific Division. Center Bill Walton made his return to the Portland lineup after missing five games because of an ankle sprain. He played only 17 minutes, but tallied 12 points, eight rebounds, four assists and four blocked shots.

"We ran well" said Portland forward Maurice Lucas who scored 18 of his 20 points as the Blazers built 66-44 lead. "It makes so much difference with Bill (Walton) back. Also I can do many more things with him there."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=12 ... lton&hl=en


For the season, Bill Walton averaged 18.6 points, 14.4 boards, 3.8 assists and 3.2 blocks on 52.8% field goal percentage, 69.7% free throw percentage and 56.3% true shooting percentage in 34.8 minutes per game. He led the league in rebounds, blocked shots and defensive rebound percentage while ranking top 5 in other advanced and basic stats (#2 in block %, #3 in total rebound %, #3 in win share per 48, #8 in effective field goal %, #2 in defensive rating).

Portland posted a 49-33 record in which he was arguably the main contributor. He finished second in the MVP voting, and for his excellence in the RS, he was awarded with a All-NBA Second selection ( only to the eventual MVP, Kareem) and All-NBA First Defense Team selection as well.


In the postseason, Walton averaged 18.2 points, 15.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.4 blocks on 50.7% field goal percent, 68.4% free throw percent and 52.7% true shooting percent in 39.7 minutes per game. He ranked fourth in rebounding, eight in assists and second in blocks in the playoffs. Walton managed to top all in four advanced stats (defensive reb %, DWS, Drtg and block %) and to lead all in total boards, blocks and assists in the same run.


In the first round against the Chicago Bulls, he posted averages of 17.3 points and 12.3 rebounds, as he had game logs of 11/9, 24/17 and 17/11 in those three games. Then came the series against the Los Angeles Lakers, who had the league MVP Kareem that was coming off a dominant series versus the Warriors.

"They were both All-Americans at UCLA and now the match up will be Kareem Abdul-Jabbar against Bill Walton as the Los Angeles Lakers battle the Portland Trail Blazers in the National Basketball Association semifinals.

The best of seven series starts Friday night at the Forum, home of the Lakers and where they've 41-4 record this season. The latest was a 97-84 triumph Wednesday night over the Golden State Warriors, who had beaten the three times in Oakland but lost all four playoff games at the Forum.

Abdul-Jabbar, who was Lew Alcindor when he played at UCLA, stands 7-foot-2 which gives him a three inch height advantage over Walton, who followed him at UCLA. "He's a good center and they're a good team" said Abdul-Jabbar, who spearheaded the Laker attack in the triumphant quarter-finals. He scored 40 or more points and 36 in the last one.

"It's going to be a tough series. There's no doubt that the home court is an advantage, at least it has been for us this year. But I've seen things turn around quickly."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=_U ... kers&hl=en


Against LA, he averaged 19.3 points, 14.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.3 blocks on 50.7% field goal percentage and 51.7% true shooting percentage in a series where he was a major factor to Portland's surprising series sweep. He did a solid job defensively on Kareem (holding him to 10 points below the average from the previous series with a decent help from his teammates), matched him in other areas and made his impact in Portland's wins.


In the Finals against the 76ers, Walton led his team from 0-2 to win the next straight 4 games with him dominating. For the series, Walton averaged 18.7 points, 19 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 3.7 blocks on 54.5% field goal percent and 57.9% true shooting percent en route to a title and Finals MVP. Had there been a Defensive Player Of The Year award, he'd have most likely won that award as well.

"Portland became National Basketball Association champions Sunday, mostly because Coach Gene of Philadelphia 76ers could not find any way to stop Bill Walton of the Portland Trail Blazers. Shue tried four different men on Walton in Sunday's sixth game of the championship final but none could handle him.

Caldwell Jones, Darryl Dawkins, Harvey Catchings and George McGinis all tried, but failed as Portland posted a 109-107 victory to overcome the multi-talented 76ers 4-2 in the best of seven series.

"Bill Walton has been our lead all the way" said Portland coach Jack Ramsey. "He is our team captain in every sense of the word. There is no better player, no more co-operative player, no better person than Bill."

Shue said: "Bill Walton is the best player for a big man who has ever played the game of basketball. We couldn't contain him. He dominated the middle and that threw us out of our game." Walton, who scored and rebounded in double figures in every game of the series, had 20 points, 23 rebounds, seven assists and eight blocked shots in the series finale.

He was named Most Valuable Player in the series for the way he anchored Portland's offense and defense."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=fU ... lton&hl=en

[thebottomline]

I totally get that Dr. J had a dominant playoff run of 13 games, 6 of which were against an all-time great defender, on his way to a championship.

But from strictly a value/skillset standpoint I'm having a hard time seeing Dr. J's inclusion with the "sacreds" (whose peaks, I would generally agree, are a step above the rest). Based on the discussion so far it seems like a given that he'll be voted #13...but why, exactly? To me he seems closer to the next group of guys (Robinson, Wade, Kobe, etc.) than he does to the top 12 assuming Walton takes this one... Offensively, a step or two down from guys like Wade, Kobe, McGrady; defensively it's harder to say but although I do think Dr. J was a disruptive defensive player I don't see his defense clearly pushing him over the Wade/Kobe group and into the top 12 group. Personally I wonder if I'd even have him top 15, again, from purely a value/skillset/impact perspective which is how I'm evaluating these players' peaks for my own personal list.

[ardee]

I totally get that Dr. J had a dominant playoff run of 13 games, 6 of which were against an all-time great defender, on his way to a championship.

But from strictly a value/skillset standpoint I'm having a hard time seeing Dr. J's inclusion with the "sacreds" (whose peaks, I would generally agree, are a step above the rest). Based on the discussion so far it seems like a given that he'll be voted #13...but why, exactly? To me he seems closer to the next group of guys (Robinson, Wade, Kobe, etc.) than he does to the top 12 assuming Walton takes this one... Offensively, a step or two down from guys like Wade, Kobe, McGrady; defensively it's harder to say but although I do think Dr. J was a disruptive defensive player I don't see his defense clearly pushing him over the Wade/Kobe group and into the top 12 group. Personally I wonder if I'd even have him top 15, again, from purely a value/skillset/impact perspective which is how I'm evaluating these players' peaks for my own personal list.

That entire paragraph sounds like it was written for '06 Wade

You bring up certain good points though. For example, I'd like to hear some more about Doc's defense.

[bastillon]

ElGee, what do you think about this:
Walton 1975 (31g) 2.6 to -0.3
(it's probably 1976, as Walton only played in 35 games in '75)

why was Walton's impact so negligible ? also, what about his rookie year ? when it comes to Walton we can make all kinds of assumptions but there's no better way than actually checking out his results. there's a much larger sample than this 2-year peak. 75-76 is a great sample of young Walton, then you have 14 games of Walton in 80, then 3 half healthy years in 83-85. his per-36 numbers were comparable so it seems we could make some kind of conclusions based on those other years as well.

[Doctor MJ]

ElGee, what do you think about this:
Walton 1975 (31g) 2.6 to -0.3
(it's probably 1976, as Walton only played in 35 games in '75)

why was Walton's impact so negligible ? also, what about his rookie year ? when it comes to Walton we can make all kinds of assumptions but there's no better way than actually checking out his results. there's a much larger sample than this 2-year peak. 75-76 is a great sample of young Walton, then you have 14 games of Walton in 80, then 3 half healthy years in 83-85. his per-36 numbers were comparable so it seems we could make some kind of conclusions based on those other years as well.

I think that before the year he's being considered for here ('77), Walton was a 1st and 2nd year player injured so much that he had less experience going in to '77 than a typical rookie. This might seem like a copout - it's perfectly reasonable to ask "What specifically did Walton improve on that allowed this major change?" - but I've basically come to the conclusion that rookies typically don't have much impact, especially if major things are going wrong.

Here's something I'll say though, and I think this is both a reassuring explanation AND a possible crack to begin a rebuttal:

In '76-77 Jack Ramsey became coach and implemented a new offense, for which he will shout to the rafter was COMPLETELY based on Walton's talents. The result was that the Blazer's ORtg skyrocketed. From 2nd worst to 2nd best in the league - which also means that the unexpected offensive on/off for Walton is probably legit and not a pace adjustment which should probably be looked upon as his defensive impact.

As I say this though, it's gotta be noted that when Walton fell into injury hell in '78-79, it wasn't Portland's offense that fell off the charts, it was the defense. It's possible to put this into a narrative, but it's uncertain enough I'll refrain from doing too much here.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Julius Erving '76

I do consider the debate with Walton a good one, but I side with Erving. To me the top end impact they each had, which obviously happened in the years we're considering here, was comparable (and GOAT-ish) but I have more faith in my ability to orchestrate getting that with Erving in a new place than with Walton in a new place.

[ElGee]

ElGee, what do you think about this:
Walton 1975 (31g) 2.6 to -0.3
(it's probably 1976, as Walton only played in 35 games in '75)

why was Walton's impact so negligible ? also, what about his rookie year ? when it comes to Walton we can make all kinds of assumptions but there's no better way than actually checking out his results. there's a much larger sample than this 2-year peak. 75-76 is a great sample of young Walton, then you have 14 games of Walton in 80, then 3 half healthy years in 83-85. his per-36 numbers were comparable so it seems we could make some kind of conclusions based on those other years as well.

This is discussed by Walton in interviews and in Breaks of the Game. Walton struggled mightily just to find a rhythm because of these injuries. It was mentally frustrating as well. He'd get into a groove mid-season and then injure himself again. He came off the bench and then had a good last week of the 76 season. In the 76 off season, he felt healthy and ready. He was able to train and built his body up by "using the Nautilus" to like 250 lbs and very lean. (Wouldn't "using the Nautilus" be a great euphemism for PED's?) Add in the chemistry with Ramsey, and that as Doc said, he wanted to make Walton the centerpiece of the team, and this obviously isn't an apples to apples comparison. Heck, you see Walton in 76 posting a 49% TS% AND blocking half the amount of shots...obviously a big deal for a super-active shot blocker.

Looking at anything after all his feet surgeries is silly since he isn't even remotely close to the same player. The guy basically missed FIVE full years before he started to be able to play again, and then when he did he was playing on very wobbly wheels.

All that said, you can see in 1976 stuff like Walton coming back from injury mid-season, finding a brief groove, and Portland winning 9 of 10. Overall, if we adjust for opponent:

Walton 1976 IN (51g) +0.7 SRS
Walton 1976 OUT (31g) -3.8 SRS

This suggests something very good about a second-year banged up player, does it not? If you also x-out the dozen or so games they slowly bring Walton back off the bench at the end of the year, the team was +1.7 with him (a net increase of 5.5 in SRS).

[ElGee]

---

West v Oscar v Barkley-- West would have my 16 vote, Oscar my 17 vote. West's 1968 season is just sick to me. It is one of the view cases where I look at the in/out data we have as a real tipping point in my mind, mostly because of what the "on" looks like. If I told you that there's a player in the late 60's and he played with:

Mel Counts
Elgin Baylor
Gail Goodrich
Archie Clark

And 51 games into the season they had an 8.1 SRS, and most of it was from their offense (which was performing waaay better than any offense in NBA history up that point and would for quite some time-- +8.7 using pace estimation and assuming a constant pace), would you take notice?

Then what if I told you in the last 31 games of the year, this player was injured and his team played BELOW .500 basketball? Because that's what happened to Jerry West and the Lakers in 1968 (not in that order, of course).

I include Barkley in this pack because 3 guys are really offensive savants to me, and coincidentally I have them quite close because neither does much on defense. Still, Jerry West impresses me the most.

Not sure what you're insinuating, my friend. The Lakers were 28-23 51 games into the '68 season. They then finished 23-7. What do you mean that they played below .500 without West ? And which West season are you looking at to vote?

I'm having a hard time deciding between '65, '66 and '70.

I was insinuating if you re-shuffled the order of the games, West's narrative might be a little different. Because he did, in point of fact, miss 31 games that year, and the Lakers were very much a -0.5 SRS team in those games. With West in 51 games? An 8.5 SRS team.

I'm not entirely sure why you're stuck on 65, 66, and 70. I can guess (40 ppg PS average, 66 58% TS average, 70 2nd in MVP, all-nba and all-D.) Here are West's In/Out runs:

1963 West In (54g) 5.5 SRS
1963 West Out (26g) -2.1 SRS

1967 West In (65g) 1.4 SRS
1967 West Out (16g) -5.4 SRS

1968 West In (51g) 8.1 SRS
1968 West Out (31g) -0.5 SRS

1969 West In (61g) 5.4 SRS
1969 West Out (21g) 0.7 SRS

1970 West In (90g) 3.8 SRS *including PS
1970 West Out (8g) -8.6 SRS

1970 West In w Baylor In (36g) 2.1 SRS *including PS
1970 West In w Baylor and Wilt In (29g) 3.9 SRS

1971 West In (69g) 5.1 SRS
1971 West Out (13g) -7.2 SRS
1971 West Out (25g) -1.9 SRS *including PS

1973 West In (69g) 9.8 SRS
1973 West Out (13g) -1.0 SRS

This is a guy knocking on the door of Nash, Walton, LeBron, Thurmond, super-value to his team. There's a lot that looks impressive there, consistently. To me, I'm left trying to untangle the following:

-how did West's teams perform at their best?
-how did West's teams perform without him (if available)
-how did West's teams look ITO of roster, health and coaching?
-how did West's individual statistics look in conjunction with that information?

As you can see, the 1968 team was RIDICULOUS with West in the lineup. This was with someone not regarded as a coaching genius, with good lineup continuity around him, and an offensive slant (eg Clark, Goodrich, Baylor) and it may have, based on plausible explanations, produced an offensive level that was rarely matched until the 3-point era. This is huge huge stuff.

Then you look at what West did individually. He set a career high in FG% that he'd never come close to (a weird drop in FT% that year). This led to a career and league-best 59% TS%, 9.2% better than league average! In the postseason, he averaged a career-best 59.6% TS% on 31-5.4-.5.5 and a career-best 52.7% FG%.

In the Finals against Boston (-4.9 est DRtg), he had 35 in G2 to steal serve from the Celtics. 33 in G3, 38 in a G4 win to even the series. The Lakers thought an 8-day layoff before game 1 cost them the game, and then lost G5 in Boston in OT 120-117...West had 35 more in the game. West sprained his ankle at the end of G4 and it caught up to him in G6, and without an effective West (8-19 FG), the Lakers were blown out in the first half.

[fatal9]

I totally get that Dr. J had a dominant playoff run of 13 games, 6 of which were against an all-time great defender, on his way to a championship.

But from strictly a value/skillset standpoint I'm having a hard time seeing Dr. J's inclusion with the "sacreds" (whose peaks, I would generally agree, are a step above the rest). Based on the discussion so far it seems like a given that he'll be voted #13...but why, exactly? To me he seems closer to the next group of guys (Robinson, Wade, Kobe, etc.) than he does to the top 12 assuming Walton takes this one... Offensively, a step or two down from guys like Wade, Kobe, McGrady; defensively it's harder to say but although I do think Dr. J was a disruptive defensive player I don't see his defense clearly pushing him over the Wade/Kobe group and into the top 12 group. Personally I wonder if I'd even have him top 15, again, from purely a value/skillset/impact perspective which is how I'm evaluating these players' peaks for my own personal list.

This is kind of my opinion too.

Watched some classic Dr. J games again recently, and assessment is pretty much same as before. An amazingly dynamic full-court offensive player. His all around offensive skills have probably become underrated with time and his overall game fits in really well in a team setting. However, you could argue Doc is flawed offensively in two ways. His jumpshot wasn't pure/range wasn't that great. But I don't really see this as a flaw (the not having range on his shot) because with the way he played, he didn't need to be taking threes. His efficiency was good, he had a good midrange game (bankshot from midrange was money!), constantly working for position around the basket and was in super aggressive attack mode to the basket drawing fouls or finishing at the rim (scoring wise sounds a little bit like LeBron this year, who we credited for not taking as many long jumpers, doesn't it?). The one flaw that I do see in his offensive game where I question whether he truly belongs over the other elite wings (KB, T-Mac, Wade) is his ball handling. I feel like this is a legitimate flaw. In the full court it was fine, but in the half court he just didn't appear to be a very versatile ball handler. Now again, you can argue this is maybe sort of a good thing because Dr. J was a little bit of an anti-ball-stopper to me...he got the ball and attacked right away. But then again, lack of handles also IMO made him a less dangerous scorer than the other guys when you took away his first move. His playmaking was also below the rest of these guys for this reason (though Doc is actually an underrated passer imo). Not quite seeing his iso-scoring game on the level of Kobe or '09 Wade, and this is a legitimate criticism because after watching many of Doc's playoff games from '77-'82, there were a lot of times when the Sixers really could have used him to generate more offense for himself. I felt like this was something I saw consistently in his NBA playoff career, not quite the go to scoring as the other wings when the game really slowed down and it came down to his skills.

But that's not his peak, '76 is according to this thread, which I agree with but I don't think '76 version of Doc possessed more skills than '80 or '81 version of Doc so my point is that the '76 version comes with the same flaws. The '76 version was just even more physically dominant (who was also playing in a league that suited his strengths really well). We recognize these flaws when comparing LeBron with Dr. J (which is why he was ranked over him) but seem to forget them in comparison to the other guys in the next tier.

Defensively, a better team defender than man defender for sure. But very good on that end, and especially amazing at converting defense into easy baskets. He's like the SF version of a 80s Hakeem defensively, questionable man defense because susceptible to fakes/tricks/poor judgement, sometimes committed too many careless gambles, but raw athleticism, good reaction and timing still allowed him to have a tremendous impact defensively. This is something I've heard even Doc admit in his ABA interviews (that his man defense needs to get better).

So while I see Dr. J around this area peak-wise, I just think there's a bit more discussion about his peak and the next group of guards (Oscar, West, Kobe, T-Mac, Wade). His combination of numbers, team performance and playoff performance probably eclipses all of them, but he did play when the league was split in two (and ABA style really really suited his strengths....it's not so much I think ABA players sucked or didn't play defense, it's that stylistically I see it as a perfect setting for his game to flourish and that needs to be considered). His playoffs though probably swing the balance in his favor but based on the type of things you could expect from him nightly, I don't see him above those guys. Regardless, what an amazing player to watch, he draws anticipation almost every time he touches the ball.

Does anyone know what Doc's wingspan was btw?

[ElGee]

vote: Walton 77

[drza]

vote: Walton 77