Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[I_Like_Dirt]

I tend to think it's veterans who usually play themselves into shape in training camp and the regular season and gear up for a long season after rehabbing various knicks during the offseason. Younger players generally are able to handle less time between games and recover quickly. The only advantage I could see with older players is that they wouldn't need the practice time that was lost due to the compressed schedule as much as young players, so the young players wouldn't be able to gain ground in their understanding of the game as quickly as they otherwise might but would still have the added advantage of being fresher longer.

I'm not willing to put in the work as lazy as I am, but I'm fairly confident that line of thinking would hold up. Most contenders are loaded with veteran role players while perennial cellar dwellers are loaded with crappy lottery picks and forever tanking. The problem with any results (as is the case with most everything in the NBA) is that talent is just such an obvious source of error in the results that it makes it tough to analyze anything. A team that hits a homerun or two in the lottery doesn't need to try to get as many hyper-productive players since they've already got one of the best and there is only one ball to go around and really are working on shoring up their defense which is generally accomplished by older and less productive players rather than more productive but less reliable players (Nene vs. McGee). Teams that don't hit home runs are more likely to sit in the lottery accumulating crappier young players while the better team is already at an advantage by having the better player or two. Add to that that veterans are more likely to be unrestricted and therefore more likely to be able to choose to play for a winning team and that skews the results even more. Plus, veterans also cost more on the salary scale and with unrestricted free agency which historically meant they were more likely to play for a team like the Lakers or Dallas who would spend like crazy (although that might change a bit with the new CBA).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Not sure where this observation should go, so I'll just put hit here:

I was glancing at last year's standings and noted how important average age was a to a team's success. Old teams are always good or at least average, young teams generally stink with a few notable exceptions.

The 14 oldest teams last year had an average age exceeding 26.3. Of those 14 teams, 11 of them were what I would consider to be "good". They had an SRS rating exceeding +1.75. Those teams were: Dallas, LAL, Boston, Miami, Atlanta, San Antonio, LAC, Chicago, Denver, Indiana and New York. The other 3 "old teams" were about average (Phoenix, Portland and Orlando). There were no bad teams in the group.

The 16 youngest teams last year had an average age less than 26.3. Of those 16 teams, 3 were good (Memphis, OKC and Philly), 3 were average (Houston, Milwaukee and Utah), and 10 were terrible (Detroit, New Jersey, Cleveland, Toronto, New Orleans, Golden State, Charlotte, Minnesota, Sacramento and Washington).

Washington happened to be the youngest team in the league with an average age of 24.2. (Note, it looks like basketball reference is weighting average age by games played or minutes played somehow. The average age of our roster was certainly higher than 24.2 but that's because of low minute, high age guys like Mo Evans and Brian Cook.)

I say this because the Wizards got considerably older this year. Nene will take McGee's minutes; Okafor will take Blatche's minutes plus some of Vesely's and Booker's; Ariza will take most of Singleton's minutes; and all the returning players are a year older. The only place where we got younger is with Beal taking Young's minutes.

It's just one more reason to believe that the Wizards should fare pretty well next year.

I like the age of the team, nate. The Wizards should approach average wins and be better than those three "old" teams that did not make the playoffs.

The other thing EG and Ted got right is that the oldest players make the most money.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/WAS.html

I like the Wizards acquiring Webster at SG. He's only 25, but he's married, with kids, and a mature guy. He can add some leadership. Likewise, AJ Price is 26 years old, and a veteran of many position battles with players shuttled in and out of the Pacers' lineup. He and Webster will at least know their roles and demonstrate professionalism in practice.

Washington's roster is much, much better this upcoming season. Salary issues aside, I love the leadership Okafor and Nene can offer Seraphin. Practices are going to be very spirited and much more intense, if the newly acquired veterans can stay healthy.

Webster has experience hitting big shots. Ariza can get to the basket and he's a good passer. The roster is become more and more complete and balanced. Washington will be a lot better this season.

[nate33]

Interestingly, I just guestimated the Wizards' minutes-weighted average age for next year and came up with an average age of just 24.9. We only got .7 years older. Beal's tender age of 19 really pulls down the average after it gets increased by Nene, Ariza and Okafor and the aging of everyone else on the roster. (I'm assuming Beal averages 24 minutes per game.) We also lost Mason and Lewis.

[verbal8]

Interestingly, I just guestimated the Wizards' minutes-weighted average age for next year and came up with an average age of just 24.9. We only got .7 years older. Beal's tender age of 19 really pulls down the average after it gets increased by Nene, Ariza and Okafor and the aging of everyone else on the roster. (I'm assuming Beal averages 24 minutes per game.) We also lost Mason and Lewis.

I hope the Wizards are this years Memphis or Philly. The age distribution does look a little like Philly who had Brand and Iggy and a bunch of guys under 25. The Wizards will have Nene and Okafor as the vets getting major minutes and a bunch of guys under 25.

[hands11]

Not sure where this observation should go, so I'll just put hit here:

I was glancing at last year's standings and noted how important average age was a to a team's success. Old teams are always good or at least average, young teams generally stink with a few notable exceptions.

The 14 oldest teams last year had an average age exceeding 26.3. Of those 14 teams, 11 of them were what I would consider to be "good". They had an SRS rating exceeding +1.75. Those teams were: Dallas, LAL, Boston, Miami, Atlanta, San Antonio, LAC, Chicago, Denver, Indiana and New York. The other 3 "old teams" were about average (Phoenix, Portland and Orlando). There were no bad teams in the group.

The 16 youngest teams last year had an average age less than 26.3. Of those 16 teams, 3 were good (Memphis, OKC and Philly), 3 were average (Houston, Milwaukee and Utah), and 10 were terrible (Detroit, New Jersey, Cleveland, Toronto, New Orleans, Golden State, Charlotte, Minnesota, Sacramento and Washington).

Washington happened to be the youngest team in the league with an average age of 24.2. (Note, it looks like basketball reference is weighting average age by games played or minutes played somehow. The average age of our roster was certainly higher than 24.2 but that's because of low minute, high age guys like Mo Evans and Brian Cook.)

I say this because the Wizards got considerably older this year. Nene will take McGee's minutes; Okafor will take Blatche's minutes plus some of Vesely's and Booker's; Ariza will take most of Singleton's minutes; and all the returning players are a year older. The only place where we got younger is with Beal taking Young's minutes.

It's just one more reason to believe that the Wizards should fare pretty well next year.

lol. Nate Nate Nate.

This is no news flash brother. This has been the core agreement for what the Wizards did this year in the draft by taking Beal and no selecting any 2nd round players who would play this year. Its why they brought in more vets instead of using those two 2nd round picks.

Oh, and here is one more kink in the MIL story.
viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1203115

So Ellis will be playing with one foot out the door. Not good for team cohesion.

[nate33]

lol. Nate Nate Nate.

This is no news flash brother. This has been the core agreement for what the Wizards did this year in the draft by taking Beal and no selecting any 2nd round players who would play this year. Its why they brought in more vets instead of using those two 2nd round picks.

Spare me the condescension, hands. The news of my post wasn't that the WIzards are older, it's that being old correlates to wins to a much greater degree than many may have assumed.

You can bring the condescension when you actually post something informative rather than your usual incoherent ramblings.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Doug Collins is a excellent coach and will get the most out of the vets on the roster. Bynum has no alpha dog in Kobe and doesn't have to share space with another 7-0 footer to clog paint. Collins will ensure Bynum gets all the looks he needs to dominate. As long as Bynum plays 60-65 games or more, I can see them winning 40-45 games next season.

I'll go farther than that - If Bynum stays healthy, there's no chance Philly misses the playoffs, and they'll win at least 45 games. I think Jrue is better than a low end starter. He'll benefit from Iggy's absense - just like Turner will. Some people seem to think Iggy's a borderline superstar; he's not. He's a good player who was a lousy fit in Philly, and they're going to be better without him. Another bene of getting Bynum - Thad Young's poor size/rebounding at the PF position won't hurt the team as much. And he's puts up an efficient 18+ PER even with his lack of size.

Jru
Turner
Richardson
Hawes
Bynum

I would bet that Doug Collins will have this group at 5th or 6th in the East. Bynum and Hawes are going to be good together.

When the Philly trades occurred, all I saw was lost leadership with Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, and Elton Brand departed. I reacted negatively to my expectations of Nick Young, Kwame Brown, and Andrew Bynum under Collins. However, I hadn't considered how much depth Philly has. I also had not considered Hawes starting with Bynum. That revelation by Doug Collins changes things considerably.

Hawes is yet another 18+ PER player. He is every bit the passer Pau Gasol is--which makes him an elite passer. That changes everything in my calculations. Hawes to Bynum is a scary proposition offensively. That Hawes can pop a midrange jumper makes Philly that much more dangerous. The impact he has will make some of the role players less significant. Having considered fully Hawes at PF, Kwame moves further down the depth chart. He won't negatively affect the 76ers, because Philly can also call on Lavoy Allen. Allen filled in nicely at PF and C last season.

Philly also has scoring depth beyond Nick Young. Jason Richardson, Thad Young, and recently acquired Sam Young can provide scoring, too. (Sam, Nick, and Thad Young all on the same NBA team--ironic). Evan Turner won't have to force things and nor will Jrue Holiday.

Philly will make the playoffs, and as good a coach as Doug Collins is, they could win 50 games or more. If Bynum comes to play, this will be a dangerous playoff team.

[hands11]

lol. Nate Nate Nate.

This is no news flash brother. This has been the core agreement for what the Wizards did this year in the draft by taking Beal and no selecting any 2nd round players who would play this year. Its why they brought in more vets instead of using those two 2nd round picks.

Spare me the condescension, hands. The news of my post wasn't that the WIzards are older, it's that being old correlates to wins to a much greater degree than many may have assumed.

You can bring the condescension next to you actually post something informative rather than your usual incoherent ramblings.

The condescension was for both parts. lol


As for not many making the correlation, what constitutes no many? You don't have to answer that. I'm pretty much messing with you at this point.

I appreciate that you ran some numbers. Always nice to get more details on a topic like that.

But you news wasn't the first time we have talked about how they needed to get out of the cycle of just going with young players. I was actually the core of what Ted/EG are doing this year to move on to the next stage. Its why they didn't use those later 2nd round picks and why they stashed the one they used.

Last year they started two rookies. It was no surprise they had the record they did. But then again, that is what they wanted last year. Not so much this year. They are going for more wins. I think they still want to develop the younger players so I wouldn't say they are going for more win at all cost, but they are shooting for the playoffs. Having more experienced players instead of to many rookies and projects is required if that is your goal.

[hands11]

Doug Collins is a excellent coach and will get the most out of the vets on the roster. Bynum has no alpha dog in Kobe and doesn't have to share space with another 7-0 footer to clog paint. Collins will ensure Bynum gets all the looks he needs to dominate. As long as Bynum plays 60-65 games or more, I can see them winning 40-45 games next season.

I'll go farther than that - If Bynum stays healthy, there's no chance Philly misses the playoffs, and they'll win at least 45 games. I think Jrue is better than a low end starter. He'll benefit from Iggy's absense - just like Turner will. Some people seem to think Iggy's a borderline superstar; he's not. He's a good player who was a lousy fit in Philly, and they're going to be better without him. Another bene of getting Bynum - Thad Young's poor size/rebounding at the PF position won't hurt the team as much. And he's puts up an efficient 18+ PER even with his lack of size.

Jru
Turner
Richardson
Hawes
Bynum

I would bet that Doug Collins will have this group at 5th or 6th in the East. Bynum and Hawes are going to be good together.

When the Philly trades occurred, all I saw was lost leadership with Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, and Elton Brand departed. I reacted negatively to my expectations of Nick Young, Kwame Brown, and Andrew Bynum under Collins. However, I hadn't considered how much depth Philly has. I also had not considered Hawes starting with Bynum. That revelation by Doug Collins changes things considerably.

Hawes is yet another 18+ PER player. He is every bit the passer Pau Gasol is--which makes him an elite passer. That changes everything in my calculations. Hawes to Bynum is a scary proposition offensively. That Hawes can pop a midrange jumper makes Philly that much more dangerous. The impact he has will make some of the role players less significant. Having considered fully Hawes at PF, Kwame moves further down the depth chart. He won't negatively affect the 76ers, because Philly can also call on Lavoy Allen. Allen filled in nicely at PF and C last season.

Philly also has scoring depth beyond Nick Young. Jason Richardson, Thad Young, and recently acquired Sam Young can provide scoring, too. (Sam, Nick, and Thad Young all on the same NBA team--ironic). Evan Turner won't have to force things and nor will Jrue Holiday.

Philly will make the playoffs, and as good a coach as Doug Collins is, they could win 50 games or more. If Bynum comes to play, this will be a dangerous playoff team.

Yet you struggle to use that same logic of "glass half full" positive spin when you evaluate your own "home team" the Wizards ?

They are going to be big up front thats for sure. We will see how it works out. I still see that they lost those player you mentioned and did bring in players with questionable brains in Bynum, Nick and Kwame. And as I mentioned, Bynum is not exactly speedy up and down the court. They will be a handful when the offense and defense are set. But what about in transition which is what the Wizards would do against them. And its not like the Wiz will be bad this year in the half court sets. They have players for that now.

I see them fighting for the same spot as the Wiz along with MIL. Each of these teams could put it together and win more but I have them all slated about .500 If Philly is going to be good, I don't think it will be right out of the gate. They have some jelling to do.

Its going to be a fun year to watch our division and conference.

[closg00]

Another prognostication

the East has six teams that are locks to play in May. They are the defending champion Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, who last season weren’t in (a) Brooklyn or (b) the playoffs.

You can find whatever real or imagined faults you’d like with those teams. The fact remains that each one has too much talent to land in the lottery.

At the other end of the spectrum are five teams that have no shot in hell at the playoffs. The Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are pointed in the right direction but don’t have enough to compete.

The rest
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/08/27/preseason-playoff-picture-eastern-conference/

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html

A nice review of all the moves made in our conference.

It would be interesting to read some mock games from youll with the Wiz against the teams that we will battle against for a playoff spot.

The Wizards have upgraded the talent this calendar year, having started last season with just two lottery picks on the roster (Wall and Vesely) to now having five (Wall, Vesely, Nene, Okafor and Beal). But in order for Washington to escape the bottom and become relevant, Wall will have to be truly ready to take the next leap as a player.

Dramatic turnarounds usually require game-changing acquisitions, but the team has already urged patience with Beal. In two seasons, Wall has already shown that he has the physical tools to become a star in this league. He has also had a normal offseason – free of a lockout and an inordinate amount of exhibition games – to prepare for a possible breakout campaign.

Wall has trained with Team USA in Las Vegas, worked on improving his jump shot with Dave Hopla and gained knowledge from Rob McClanaghan, the trainer who has assisted all-star point guards Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Wall wants to be the “savior” and bring postseason basketball back to Verizon Center. With Blatche, Nick Young and JaVale McGee gone and a group of players noted fro their professionalism in town, he will have his opportunity to elevate the franchise.

--

Wall has the physical talent. Now he has a better team. And it looks like he did a lot of the right things in the offseason. He trained with the right people. So if all that work shows improvement ( hard to see how it wouldn't ) then that takes at lot of pressure off the team as they gel all these new players and Beal finds his way.

Sure they could come up short, but I see more then enough there to make me see a good chance that it all comes together. If it does, I like their chances to make the playoffs. There are 2 or 3 slots that are available for a team like the Wizards if they are as competitive as I think they will be.

[hands11]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/6/26 ... draft-2012

"I'm trying to add a post-up game, floaters, mid-range, a consistent, knockdown three-point shot for when people double-team off me and leave me open," Wall said. "Those are just things that guys in my position, like Derrick [Rose], Russell [Westbrook] and Chris [Paul] and all those guys have improved. That's the only way to get better. That's the only way you become a top point guard in the league."

More specifically, Wall emphasized "learning how to change speeds," "maybe use less dribbles" and following through while staying on balance on his jump shot.

The Wall audio
http://www.sportstalkflorida.com/today- ... e-6-26-12/

[closg00]

HoopsHype projection and Wiz recap, nicely done.
http://hoopshype.com/previews/washington.htm

[LyricalRico]

HoopsHype projection and Wiz recap, nicely done.
http://hoopshype.com/previews/washington.htm

I think the prose was mostly spot-on, but that the prediction doesn't really match.

To say that Wall's "All Star talent" could be "brought out" by an improved supporting cast, that Beal "should help greatly" in perimeter shooting, and that "with Nenê and newly acquired Emeka Okafor, the Wizards have greatly improved their interior defense"...and then to predict that they will still be third worst in the conference? Even with the clearly described negatives, that still strikes me as a contradiction.

The Wizards were second worst in the conference last year (only ahead of NJ), but were clearly on the upswing after the Nene trade. And the article is essentially saying that taking that and adding an improved Wall, improved defense, and the #3 overall pick will only help them move up one spot? I have to disagree with that.

Again, I liked the breakdown, but I think the prediction is artificially low.

[SOUL]

http://sportsoftheroundtable.com/2012/0 ... 13-season/

Wrote a small article about you guys. Nothing new, just think that you guys are getting underrated by people who aren't really Wizards fans.

I think you'll challenge for that 8th spot. I don't really trust Randy Wittman, though.

[GhostsOfGil]

http://sportsoftheroundtable.com/2012/09/03/dodging-bullets-the-washington-wizards-the-2012-2013-season/

Wrote a small article about you guys. Nothing new, just think that you guys are getting underrated by people who aren't really Wizards fans.

I think you'll challenge for that 8th spot. I don't really trust Randy Wittman, though.

I enjoyed reading that, thanks for posting

[SOUL]

Appreciate it bro!

[closg00]

Sheridan Hoops Power Rankings, Wiz 25
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/09/04 ... -rankings/

[LyricalRico]

Sheridan Hoops Power Rankings, Wiz 25
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/09/04 ... -rankings/

More contradictory "analysis" IMO. For example, they destroy the Bucks in their write-up, but then have them making the playoffs (#17 overall, but I counted 8th among East teams on this list). They they say that Atlanta (a playoff team last year) could have an "addition by subtraction" factor and they speak well of the Hawks' new additions, but then have them ranked as a non-playoff team.



Specifically for the Wizards, I liked what they said in the write-up. I agree that this could be a "darkhorse" team. They extolled the Nene/Okafor frontcourt and Wall as a passer, and said that Beal could put up ROY numbers. Yet, they still rank us as 4th worst in the East, behind an Orlando team that they describe as injury prone and basically having their whole roster up for sale.

Again...



As with some of the other previews we've looked at, most of the prose is solid but their rankings don't really seem to match IMO. Instead, they seem to be based too much on the previous year's record and/or other pre-existing opinions.

[hands11]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/9/6/ ... on-wizards

Wall's problems with the pick and roll are largely a result of a shaky jump shot that allows his defender to go under each screen. However, some of his struggles are likely the result of who is on the floor with him. Great pick and roll-oriented offenses tend to feature a great all-around point guard, a quick big man who can set brutal screens and shoot from 15 feet just as easily as he can roll to the basket and good spot up shooters spacing the floor


Read the rest of the article to see how they plug in the new players on the Wizards roster.

I think Nene will be great with Wall on PnR.

This is a big year for Walls development and I believe we will see him take meaningful strides this year. I see the entire team doing the same. Its going to be a lot of fun watching them this year.