Interpreting Lineup Datarealbig3, I've really enjoyed your posts in this project. I like where you're going here. But I think your last post here is a perfect example of not looking at the entire picture. (There's a bit of cherry picking here, and I imagine it's unintentional.)
(1) We need to consider the small sample size of the PS. There's really no other way to say this, it's a REALLY big deal in trying to make these kinds of conclusions. Way way moreso with lineup data, where the most used lineup of a team might play 200 min. Variance/error are off the charts
(2) The most used lineup of the 2011 PS Mavs had an ORtg of 94.4. I mention this because you have quite a story to tell if you say "well hey, look, the Nowitzki-led lineup that played 163 min had an ORtg of 127!" Well, yeah, and the Nowitzki-led lineup that made one substitution, Jason Terry for Deshawn Stevenson, was terrible offensively by the same standard. How do you reconcile this?
(3) The thing you should be looking at, if you haven't already, is whether this data is impressive relative to other lineups. Is it?
According to BR, the 2011 Mavs have the two best ORtg lineup from 2008-2012, and they are indeed both somewhat outlying. Of course, we know the Mavs are the originators of obsessing over lineup data, so maybe it isn't too surprising if we dig deeper...
The Best Offensive Lineup of the Last 5 Playoffs...
Let's look at the No. 1 lineup, the Peja lineup...they couldn't even play it against the Heat, which was predictable heading into the series. Let me say that again --
they could not play this offensively-slanted lineup against Miami bc of matchup problems. (They tried it for 10 pos, were outscored 8-7, and scrapped it.)
Another thing to note is the 3-point shooting. Like, a big, giant huge note. Mavs hit 16 3's per 100 possessions at 56% shooting -- this was the lineup that went bonkers against LA. If you bring the 3-point shooting down to just "fantastic," at 40%, you lose 13.4 points/100 off the total.
The Mavericks Best LineupThe second lineup on the list burned Miami. They were the lineup that put together the perfect shooting run (save for a blocked shot) at the end of G2. They also never really played for more than 4 consecutive minutes. (In a game in LA they went 5:03 together!) Again, shouldn't you be asking yourself
"if this lineup is so dominant, why does it seem to play only at strategically opportune times?" (eg the Lakers 2010 lineup REGULARLY played for 5-8 minute stretches uninterrupted.)
[You can also look at the RS to increase sample. The RS ORtg of the Terry unit was 119 in 187 min. For the outlying 137 unit with Peja, it was 111 in 41 min.]
Oh, and these are all things that you should intuitively know from watching the PS.
(a) The Mavs pick and choose lineups brilliantly.
(b) The Mavs were video-game hot during stretches WITH hand-picked lineups.
(c) The Mavs also struggled with other lineups which is
(d) why the Mavs won an extremely close title and didn't roll people like the 96 Bulls, despite their outlying lineups.
No reasonable human with working eyes watched the 2011 playoffs as they unfolded and thought "man, this Mavs offense is HISTORICALLY dominant, only they keep subbing in bad players for some reason!"
And while +35.6 is amazingly impressive (Terry lineup), no one actually thinks that's anywhere close to how good they "really" are, right? Because we could just also use the RS data and we'd see it's the 3rd-best offensive lineup of the last 5 years, but only the 13th-best overall lineup:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... y=diff_pts Of course, they play in strategically beneficial situations, as you'll notice they are the BEST big-minute lineup of the last 5 years...but they only average 5.5 mpg together. (!) The other "notable" top lineups -- as in, this is our best lineup, we want to play it as much as possible -- average 13 to 16 minutes.
For an actual, no holds bard, holy **** impressive lineup, look at the Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perkins lineup -- they played 4400 minutes together at +13.5 and
19.2 mpg. Now THAT's a freaking impressive lineup. (Or even the Pho starting lineup in 2005 -- 1520 MP,
19.5 mpg, +14.7. The Det starting 5 played 4700 MP over 3 years at +11.5 while playing
21.2 mpg. And on and on...)