The Amazingly Suck Theodore Leonsis Thread

[TGW]

As down as I am on Grunfeld, there is no way in hell the Bobcats are remotely close to being on the same level as the Wizards. The Wizards are better at every position, except for maybe small forward.

CCJ, I have no problem taking your money if your up to it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I gotta say, you're delusional on this one. It's one thing if you want to be down on the Wizards' chances this season. But it's a whole another story if you want to talk about the Bobcats having some success. Or them landing a big time free agent (bigger than Nene).

I'm a big Rich Cho fan, and I think eventually he'll find a way to make the Bobcats respectable again, but it's not happening this year.

Not …. the first time I've been called delusional, rocky.

Honestly, I'm not down on the Wizards. They have a pretty good shot at the playoffs. It is more that I am a lot more optimistic about the Bobcats than pretty much everyone else. Occasionally, I get this feeling and it comes through. I'm talking about the Bobcats having a heap of success.

When I look at the careers of Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Ramon Sessions; I think Sessions is probably the most likely to have a huge bump in production. You say the Wizards are better at every position, but let's start at PG. Sessions has a chance to put up extremes in career numbers again because he will get shots, minutes, and the starting nod. This wasn't the case when he played behind #6 pick Jonny Flynn, or #1 pick Kyrie Irving, or when he was the 4th option behind Kobe, Pau, and Andrew Bynum. Here's what happened when Sessions was the man.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramon_Sessions

On April 14, 2008, Sessions scored a then career-high 20 points, adding 8 rebounds and a Milwaukee Bucks franchise-record 24 assists against the Chicago Bulls in a 151-135 home loss.[8] His double-double performance was also the first "20-20" with points and assists in Bucks history.[8] The following night he topped his career-high with 25 points, in a 110-101 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.[9] Sessions would later top his career high again by almost doubling it: on February 7, 2009, in an overtime loss against the Detroit Pistons, he scored 44 points.[10] On April 1, 2009, Sessions recorded his first career triple-double against the Los Angeles Lakers scoring 16 points with 16 assists and 10 rebounds.[11]

Wall's better, but if you look at career PER, career WS/48, career high points, career high assists--Sessions has him beat.

Move to SG and the Bobcats addressed a major weakness, three point shooting, when they added Ben Gordon. It's one thing to project how good Beal may become, but I know Ben Gordon's2011-2012 split numbers.

Ben Gordon had a MONTH where he hit over 50% from three. He ended the season hitting 48%FG and 46% 3PT. He's maybe the best three point shooter in the league, way better than Webster, Ariza, Crawford, and probably Beal. I saw a game where Gordon hit 9 straight threes. I think he's going to help another UConn grad, Kemba Walker, a ton. He's going to also help Gerald Henderson when teams want to collapse on him. On top of that, Gordon didn't have anyone passing him the ball at Detroit. Not Rodney Stuckey, or Rip Hamilton, or Brandon Knight. Now he's got a great assist guard, Ramon Sessions. rockymac52, I think the Bobcats backcourt will compete with the Wizards. Wall can't stop Sessions, and Gordon's going to be wide open much of the time.

At SF, you say the Wizards are better. I don't think so. MKG as a rookie will be better than ALL of the Wizards SFs. Reggie Williams under a new coach and healthy can do something better than Wizards SF: Score the ball. He hits threes at a high clip, too. Jeff Taylor out of Vandy might contribute. They've also got Gerald Henderson to fill at SF. I don't see Trevor Ariza, Chris Singleton, and Martell Webster outclassing the Bobcats at SF.

At PF the Wizards have an advantage for sure, if you count Nene/Booker/Vesely/Seraphin as all possible PFs. Center looks to have the same names. I give the Wizards an advantage up front, but with a caveat:

Brendan Haywood might have been a corpse in Dallas and he's in decline, but I know he can defend. He allows Bismack Biyombo to play PF. That young guy is a shotblocking phenom who played Dwight Howard straight up better than anyone (Trevor Booker played him well too, once). I think having Haywood with legit size will shore up a major weakness. Brendan is a Tar Heel who is going home and he will play his best basketball in years. I also expect to see Byron Mullens at PF at times. Mullens can score about like Seraphin. He just can't defend and he's not a true C. I haven't mentioned Tyrus Thomas but I will say under Coach Dunlap you just don't know. Thomas is a freak athlete who played meaningful playoff minutes in 2009-2010.

rocky, I think Charlotte is going to shock (almost) everyone next season. The reason I pump them up is their owner got cheap vets to boost and build around his young players. MJ/Cho brought in a PG from SC and a C from NC. Their G trade brought a first and a UCONN guy to mentor a UCONN guy. They drafted a player who IMO is flat better than Brad Beal. MKG is the real deal. And they have a new coach who has as good a resume as Wittman.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As down as I am on Grunfeld, there is no way in hell the Bobcats are remotely close to being on the same level as the Wizards. The Wizards are better at every position, except for maybe small forward.

CCJ, I have no problem taking your money if your up to it.

TGW, hold that thought and lets discuss this around training camp time. I'm thinking some kind of fair exchange via mail or gift certificate.

When you say remotely close, do you think within 5 wins is close?

[verbal8]

I bet the Bobcats will be about as good as the Wizards this season. I also would wager that when Rich Cho invests money next season, he will get better veterans than Okafor or Ariza; AND he will also land a marquee player that is better than Nene.

Paul is from NC. MJ is the owner. You guys watch and see Micheal Jordan turn that team around way quicker the Ernie and Ted. Their sights are squarely on the bottom line and peak around mediocre.

I think you are overly optimistic about the Bobcats in the short-term. However in the long-term I think they may finally be headed in the right direction. MJ as the "face of the franchise" and Cho as GM. I don't think Dunlap is the long term answer at coach, but his success at the college level indicates he could help develop young talent.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... --nba.html

[TGW]

As down as I am on Grunfeld, there is no way in hell the Bobcats are remotely close to being on the same level as the Wizards. The Wizards are better at every position, except for maybe small forward.

CCJ, I have no problem taking your money if your up to it.

TGW, hold that thought and lets discuss this around training camp time. I'm thinking some kind of fair exchange via mail or gift certificate.

When you say remotely close, do you think within 5 wins is close?

5 wins is close. I would venture to say the Bobcats win less than 20. The Wizards will win around 35. Both not inspiring, but I'd say a 35-win team is much better than a 20-win team.

[hands11]

I bet the Bobcats will be about as good as the Wizards this season. I also would wager that when Rich Cho invests money next season, he will get better veterans than Okafor or Ariza; AND he will also land a marquee player that is better than Nene.

Paul is from NC. MJ is the owner. You guys watch and see Micheal Jordan turn that team around way quicker the Ernie and Ted. Their sights are squarely on the bottom line and peak around mediocre.

I think you are overly optimistic about the Bobcats in the short-term. However in the long-term I think they may finally be headed in the right direction. MJ as the "face of the franchise" and Cho as GM. I don't think Dunlap is the long term answer at coach, but his success at the college level indicates he could help develop young talent.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... --nba.html

Absolutely they are headed in the right direction. As for what it will look like this year. Only time will tell. Depends on how quickly it comes together.

[nate33]

I'm still pissed that Charlotte managed to get a 1st round pick in exchange for taking on Gordon, and we got squat for taking on Okafor.

[closg00]

I'm still pissed that Charlotte managed to get a 1st round pick in exchange for taking on Gordon, and we got squat for taking on Okafor.

And I thought I had problems letting go , but our anger is justified.

We are also due for some major heartburn watching several 2nd round/undrafted draft-steals on other teams instead of the Wizards.

[payitforward]

I'm still pissed that Charlotte managed to get a 1st round pick in exchange for taking on Gordon, and we got squat for taking on Okafor.

And I thought I had problems letting go , but our anger is justified.

We are also due for some major heartburn watching several 2nd round/undrafted draft-steals on other teams instead of the Wizards.

Oh yes. Oh yes. It's going to be very very annoying.

[Dat2U]

CCJ, I gotta say, you're delusional on this one. It's one thing if you want to be down on the Wizards' chances this season. But it's a whole another story if you want to talk about the Bobcats having some success. Or them landing a big time free agent (bigger than Nene).

I'm a big Rich Cho fan, and I think eventually he'll find a way to make the Bobcats respectable again, but it's not happening this year.

Not …. the first time I've been called delusional, rocky.

Honestly, I'm not down on the Wizards. They have a pretty good shot at the playoffs. It is more that I am a lot more optimistic about the Bobcats than pretty much everyone else. Occasionally, I get this feeling and it comes through. I'm talking about the Bobcats having a heap of success.

CCJ, the first time I called you delusional you was spouting off some ridiculous nonsense about a guy drafted in the 2nd round (Carlos Boozer) being better than a recent #1 pick in the draft (Kwame Brown). I may have also called you an idiot too, lol.

But your not delusional on the Bobcats. And I think everyone is sleeping on MKG big time, he's going to be a legit stud, I'm still disappointed we couldn't find a way to get him. He'll be an elite slasher, defender and finisher from day #1.

When I look at the careers of Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Ramon Sessions; I think Sessions is probably the most likely to have a huge bump in production. You say the Wizards are better at every position, but let's start at PG. Sessions has a chance to put up extremes in career numbers again because he will get shots, minutes, and the starting nod. This wasn't the case when he played behind #6 pick Jonny Flynn, or #1 pick Kyrie Irving, or when he was the 4th option behind Kobe, Pau, and Andrew Bynum. Here's what happened when Sessions was the man.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramon_Sessions

On April 14, 2008, Sessions scored a then career-high 20 points, adding 8 rebounds and a Milwaukee Bucks franchise-record 24 assists against the Chicago Bulls in a 151-135 home loss.[8] His double-double performance was also the first "20-20" with points and assists in Bucks history.[8] The following night he topped his career-high with 25 points, in a 110-101 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.[9] Sessions would later top his career high again by almost doubling it: on February 7, 2009, in an overtime loss against the Detroit Pistons, he scored 44 points.[10] On April 1, 2009, Sessions recorded his first career triple-double against the Los Angeles Lakers scoring 16 points with 16 assists and 10 rebounds.[11]

Wall's better, but if you look at career PER, career WS/48, career high points, career high assists--Sessions has him beat.

Move to SG and the Bobcats addressed a major weakness, three point shooting, when they added Ben Gordon. It's one thing to project how good Beal may become, but I know Ben Gordon's2011-2012 split numbers.

Ben Gordon had a MONTH where he hit over 50% from three. He ended the season hitting 48%FG and 46% 3PT. He's maybe the best three point shooter in the league, way better than Webster, Ariza, Crawford, and probably Beal. I saw a game where Gordon hit 9 straight threes. I think he's going to help another UConn grad, Kemba Walker, a ton. He's going to also help Gerald Henderson when teams want to collapse on him. On top of that, Gordon didn't have anyone passing him the ball at Detroit. Not Rodney Stuckey, or Rip Hamilton, or Brandon Knight. Now he's got a great assist guard, Ramon Sessions. rockymac52, I think the Bobcats backcourt will compete with the Wizards. Wall can't stop Sessions, and Gordon's going to be wide open much of the time.

At SF, you say the Wizards are better. I don't think so. MKG as a rookie will be better than ALL of the Wizards SFs. Reggie Williams under a new coach and healthy can do something better than Wizards SF: Score the ball. He hits threes at a high clip, too. Jeff Taylor out of Vandy might contribute. They've also got Gerald Henderson to fill at SF. I don't see Trevor Ariza, Chris Singleton, and Martell Webster outclassing the Bobcats at SF.

At PF the Wizards have an advantage for sure, if you count Nene/Booker/Vesely/Seraphin as all possible PFs. Center looks to have the same names. I give the Wizards an advantage up front, but with a caveat:

Brendan Haywood might have been a corpse in Dallas and he's in decline, but I know he can defend. He allows Bismack Biyombo to play PF. That young guy is a shotblocking phenom who played Dwight Howard straight up better than anyone (Trevor Booker played him well too, once). I think having Haywood with legit size will shore up a major weakness. Brendan is a Tar Heel who is going home and he will play his best basketball in years. I also expect to see Byron Mullens at PF at times. Mullens can score about like Seraphin. He just can't defend and he's not a true C. I haven't mentioned Tyrus Thomas but I will say under Coach Dunlap you just don't know. Thomas is a freak athlete who played meaningful playoff minutes in 2009-2010.

rocky, I think Charlotte is going to shock (almost) everyone next season. The reason I pump them up is their owner got cheap vets to boost and build around his young players. MJ/Cho brought in a PG from SC and a C from NC. Their G trade brought a first and a UCONN guy to mentor a UCONN guy. They drafted a player who IMO is flat better than Brad Beal. MKG is the real deal. And they have a new coach who has as good a resume as Wittman.

[rockymac52]

If the Bobcats manage to come within 5 Wins of the Wizards this season without a serious injury to Wall or Nene, or their acquisition of an all-star, then I will give up.

There's just no way. I understand some of your optimism that they might not be as bad as people expect them to be, but you have to remember that people expect them to literally be the worst NBA team of all-time. Winning 20 games is probably exceeding expectations for the Bobcats this season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

rocky, they are radically different, not the same players at all this season.

New coach. New, veteran PG. New, veteran C. Those are the key positions. They drafted a transcendent talent who has a motor and will to win that are very rare. MKG is from an NCAA champion. His rebounding will be beyond elite at SF. He is going to score a lot, too. The strength of hs game will be his Pippen-esque defense. Charlotte brought in a terrific shooter who is also from an NCAA championship program. He is going to mentor Kemba Walker, who will improve--and Walker was a champion in the NCAAs as well as Final Four MVP. He's only in his second year. Biyombo will improve. This coach has a great reputation. This isn't those Bobcat teams of the past. Not at all.

rocky, many "experts" spew out the same old group speak and 95% of them haven't looked at this like I have. I know the Bobcats are going to be way better. I think they very well could have as good a record as this Wizards team.

Folks didn't trust me when I said Wall would struggle and Cousins would be a future star. They didn't trust me when I said I would trade Wall for Irving's rights and a future pick. I'm not always right, but to me the Bobcats look like a very safe bet to be near as good as this Wizards team.

[OffTheWall2]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2 ... -gilchrist

^-- This also should not be discounted. They have smart basketball people in Charlotte, if MJ gets out of the way then I can definitely see how that franchise is in better position than this one.

[rockymac52]

rocky, they are radically different, not the same players at all this season.

New coach. New, veteran PG. New, veteran C. Those are the key positions. They drafted a transcendent talent who has a motor and will to win that are very rare. MKG is from an NCAA champion. His rebounding will be beyond elite at SF. He is going to score a lot, too. The strength of hs game will be his Pippen-esque defense. Charlotte brought in a terrific shooter who is also from an NCAA championship program. He is going to mentor Kemba Walker, who will improve--and Walker was a champion in the NCAAs as well as Final Four MVP. He's only in his second year. Biyombo will improve. This coach has a great reputation. This isn't those Bobcat teams of the past. Not at all.

rocky, many "experts" spew out the same old group speak and 95% of them haven't looked at this like I have. I know the Bobcats are going to be way better. I think they very well could have as good a record as this Wizards team.

Folks didn't trust me when I said Wall would struggle and Cousins would be a future star. They didn't trust me when I said I would trade Wall for Irving's rights and a future pick. I'm not always right, but to me the Bobcats look like a very safe bet to be near as good as this Wizards team.

CCJ, let me start by saying that over the years I have always respected your opinions, more so than I do for almost anyone on this message board (Nate and Nivek are probably my favorites at the moment). But that goes especially for when it comes to evaluating underrated draft prospects. There's no denying you've been on the money with plenty of guys in the past that were overlooked. You have earned my complete trust in that regard.

But I simply do not agree with your analysis of the Bobcats here.

I'll say this, there really isn't anywhere to go but up. But we all know that doesn't mean anything. Just like we know that the talking heads at ESPN and the like will always make safe predictions and contribute next to nothing of value when it comes to real insight and analysis. I'm not saying that I expect the Bobcats to be really bad this season just because lots of media types are saying similar things. They are definitely saying such things, but just because I don't respect the talking heads' opinions most of the time doesn't mean that I can't agree with them sometimes. In this case, I do.

The Bobcats are bad. Real bad.

They may have some guys who develop down the line and turn into quality players, and they may be making prudent roster decisions as they build for the future, but that's not what we're debating right now. We're debating about what they're going to do THIS SEASON, and how that compares to what the Wizards will do. Now, I've personally bought into a lot of the offseason hype of this Wizards team, but let's say that doesn't pan out, and we're the same **** Wizards we've been for the past few years, and we find ourselves bottom 5 in the league once again. If that's the case, then yes, I could see the Bobcats being within 5 wins of us, or even with a better record. At that point, **** happens. Goodbye Ernie. But let's forget about what the Wizards will do for a moment, and just focus on the Bobcats.

I agree that this year's team is a lot more well-rounded than last year's was. But it's simply not very good still.

At PG, I'm somewhat intrigued to see what kind of numbers Sessions puts up. On a team devoid of scorers, I think he's going to be a prominent part of the Charlotte offense (outside of simply being the PG). He'll put up good offensive numbers with a relatively high usage rate, but as good as he is on offense, he's that much worse on defense. His offensive contributions are negated by his defense. He does have value though as a high usage high efficiency player on offense (the type of player the Wizards desperately need, IMO). As far as Kemba Walker, I'm just not sold... at all. He's horrendous on defense, and is a high usage ball dominant PG. That's extra troublesome considering how piss poor he was on offense last season. Chalk that up to the Bobcats being a mess and having no other options and being forced to ask him to do too much if you want, but it's not a good start. I think he'll post more efficient numbers now if his role decreases and he stops trying to be the hero on offense all the time. This position, as a whole, isn't necessarily that bad. The problem is probably that both of their PGs are high usage guys who really only play one way - all offense, no defense.

Ben Gordon has declined every year since he left the Bulls, both offensively and defensively. I refuse to believe that he'll experience some sort of re-invigoration now that he's on the Bobcats. If anything, I expect he'll decline even further. Even when he was "good", he was a real liability on defense. Gerald Henderson is a bust, plain and simple. He's not making it in the NBA. Reggie Williams could be decent, or he could be worthless. You mention his ability to score the ball. That's something he did quite well when he was in Golden State, but when he came to the Bobcats, he wasn't good on offense at all.

With MKG and Taylor at the 3, it's hard to say, since they're both rookies. I think MKG's a talented player. He seems like a great guy to have on your team, with the attitude, IQ, work ethic, and all that good stuff. I don't think he's going to be that much of an impact player on offense like you seem to though. It's just not his game. If he ends up having a product season offensively, then that could go a long way as far as the Bobcats' winning goes. Taylor I honestly don't know enough about to feel confident in analyzing him, so I won't pretend that I do.

To make a vast generalization, I feel like Biyombo is another hyped up African prospect who's "raw" and "oozes potential" and is a "freak athlete" and all of your favorite buzz words. Obviously to group him into all the other African prospects of the past isn't a fair evaluation, but it's where I see him eventually ending up. I was never impressed with his game leading up to the draft, and I was never impressed with his game in his first season in the NBA. Maybe he really is oozing potential, and he's just raw, and he'll eventually get better, but if that's the case, I'm sorry, but he's just not making that massive jump all in one season, let alone his second. Tyrus Thomas is a guy I feel bad for because I think he has a lot of talent and just doesn't have his head screwed on right. I feel sympathy for him because he reminds me of way too many Wizards of the past. What I learned about those guys though, is that those types of players almost never figure it out and end up good. Even with his issues, he's still a solid player. Not good, but not really bad, honestly. He won't hurt you too much.

Brendan Haywood is the man. Always has been. Back in the day I was infuriated every time we went with Etan Thomas instead of him, or when my friends would argue that Haywood's garbage and/or that Thomas was good. I'm well aware of what Haywood brings to a team. With that said though, he's getting older. It's hard to imagine him playing motivated ball at this point in his career on a team like the Bobcats. I'd like to think he'll still put up solid, efficient numbers, with exceptional defense, but if he started a steep decline this year, I wouldn't be shocked. BJ Mullens blows. 100% bust. Diop hasn't played even halfwya decent basketball in years. He's worthless these days. Even if Haywood is still Haywood, they're weak down low.



Overall, they're clearly a better group than they were last year. But as a whole, there's really no one that stands out to me. MKG COULD be that guy. Especially if he can play offense well from the get-go. I just don't see that happening (the offense, that is). This team is dysfunctional, and they're a lock for bottom 5 in the league.

[verbal8]

Overall, they're clearly a better group than they were last year. But as a whole, there's really no one that stands out to me. MKG COULD be that guy. Especially if he can play offense well from the get-go. I just don't see that happening (the offense, that is). This team is dysfunctional, and they're a lock for bottom 5 in the league.

I think the Bobcats season is like the Wizards in that what happens really will key on one player. With the Bobcats it is MKG. I can see him being with the beginning of turning the franchise around. MKG would have to be a runaway Rookie of the Year for the Bobcats to have a chance of being decent next year. Even if he was, it doesn't guarantee a good season. Just look at Irving and the Cavs.

[nate33]

I agree with every word of rockymac's analysis.

The Bobcats will stink. Rookies never make an impact, particularly rookies who played just one year in college. MKG may turn out to be a stud, but it's not going to happen this year. Ben Gordan and Brendan Haywood were quality role players a few years ago, but neither have had a good season in a while. It's hard for me to believe they will break out on the Bobcats. Walker and Biyombo were not impressive at all as rookies. There's no reason to believe that they will be anything more than mediocre role players in this league.

I think CCJ's analysis is tainted by his odd fascination with Ramon Sessions. Sessions has a history of putting up good numbers for bad teams. I expect that to continue. I suppose it can be argued that Sessions has been the victim of bad timing, having been replaced by Kyrie Irving and then Steve Nash, but I still think that if he is as good as CCJ believes, he would have found a home on a good team by now.

[Nivek]

Keep in mind that the Charlotte could make HUGE improvements from last season and still be one of the worst teams in league history. Last season, they had the worst winning percentage in league history. If they literally doubled that -- from .106 to .212 they'd still have the 42nd worst winning percentage in league history. They'd be a 17-18 win team.

It really can't be overstated just how bad Charlotte was last year.

Some measures from last season:

- 30th in scoring differential -- 2nd worst in league history.
- 30th in offensive rating -- 9th worst in league history.
- 30th in defensive rating -- one of the 100 worst defenses in league history.

They were 30th in shooting with an efg of just .439. To put this in perspective, league average was .487. Cleveland was 29th -- the Cavs shot .463. Usually bad shooting teams do decently on the offensive boards -- not Charlotte. They were one of the league's worst offensive rebounding teams last season.

On defense, they were lousy at forcing misses and bad at getting defensive rebounds. They also didn't force turnovers.

According to PER, not a single Charlotte player rated above average last season. Their highest ranked player was Kemba Walker with a 14.9 -- average is 15.0. Of course, PER rewards players like Walker who shoot a lot, even if their shooting is inefficient. In my system (which properly values shooting efficiency), Derrick Brown rated right at average. Everyone else was well below average, including Walker. And it looks like they're not even bringing Brown back.

When I look at the guys they brought in, I don't see them getting in the vicinity of .500. I think it would take a miracle for them to get to 30 wins.

Here's how their acquisitions rate in my system:
- Sessions -- average
- Haywood -- average, and at a point where he's likely to decline
- Ben Gordon -- replacement level last season

As for the rookies, MKG will probably be good, but nate's correct that he's likely not to be great right away. Jeff Taylor is a nice value pick where they got him, and might make a solid pro. But he's not going to change the franchise's fortunes either.

I don't see how they go from being an 8-9 win team (over an 82-game schedule) to 35-40 wins. If they can get to 20 wins, I'd call that a successful season for the Bobcats.

[montestewart]

developing their young players within a good mix of veterans and being in a position to get another top pick would be a good season for the Bobcats

[Severn Hoos]

Brendan Haywood is the man. Always has been. Back in the day I was infuriated every time we went with Etan Thomas instead of him, or when my friends would argue that Haywood's garbage and/or that Thomas was good. I'm well aware of what Haywood brings to a team.

This made me smile. And then put my fist through a wall thinking about what the mid-Oughts Wiz could have been if Haywood had been the clear starter at C, and Etan had been shipped off to Milwaukee. (Oh wait - or if they had simply not matched his offer sheet. )




[Full disclosure - I was reluctantly in favor of matching the offer sheet, but never for the sake of keeping him around, only on the hope of getting some value for him in a later trade. That was when I learned the painful lesson that if you don't want the guy for yourself, let him go. Keeping a guy around in the dream of "getting value" is one of the biggest mistakes a GM can make.]

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate and Nivek are probably the two most knowledgeable guys that post here.

I agree with every word of rockymac's analysis.

The Bobcats will stink. Rookies never make an impact, particularly rookies who played just one year in college. MKG may turn out to be a stud, but it's not going to happen this year. Ben Gordan and Brendan Haywood were quality role players a few years ago, but neither have had a good season in a while. It's hard for me to believe they will break out on the Bobcats. Walker and Biyombo were not impressive at all as rookies. There's no reason to believe that they will be anything more than mediocre role players in this league.

I think CCJ's analysis is tainted by his odd fascination with Ramon Sessions. Sessions has a history of putting up good numbers for bad teams. I expect that to continue. I suppose it can be argued that Sessions has been the victim of bad timing, having been replaced by Kyrie Irving and then Steve Nash, but I still think that if he is as good as CCJ believes, he would have found a home on a good team by now.

Keep in mind that the Charlotte could make HUGE improvements from last season and still be one of the worst teams in league history. Last season, they had the worst winning percentage in league history. If they literally doubled that -- from .106 to .212 they'd still have the 42nd worst winning percentage in league history. They'd be a 17-18 win team.

It really can't be overstated just how bad Charlotte was last year.

Some measures from last season:

- 30th in scoring differential -- 2nd worst in league history.
- 30th in offensive rating -- 9th worst in league history.
- 30th in defensive rating -- one of the 100 worst defenses in league history.

They were 30th in shooting with an efg of just .439. To put this in perspective, league average was .487. Cleveland was 29th -- the Cavs shot .463. Usually bad shooting teams do decently on the offensive boards -- not Charlotte. They were one of the league's worst offensive rebounding teams last season.

On defense, they were lousy at forcing misses and bad at getting defensive rebounds. They also didn't force turnovers.

According to PER, not a single Charlotte player rated above average last season. Their highest ranked player was Kemba Walker with a 14.9 -- average is 15.0. Of course, PER rewards players like Walker who shoot a lot, even if their shooting is inefficient. In my system (which properly values shooting efficiency), Derrick Brown rated right at average. Everyone else was well below average, including Walker. And it looks like they're not even bringing Brown back.

When I look at the guys they brought in, I don't see them getting in the vicinity of .500. I think it would take a miracle for them to get to 30 wins.

Here's how their acquisitions rate in my system:
- Sessions -- average
- Haywood -- average, and at a point where he's likely to decline
- Ben Gordon -- replacement level last season

As for the rookies, MKG will probably be good, but nate's correct that he's likely not to be great right away. Jeff Taylor is a nice value pick where they got him, and might make a solid pro. But he's not going to change the franchise's fortunes either.

I don't see how they go from being an 8-9 win team (over an 82-game schedule) to 35-40 wins. If they can get to 20 wins, I'd call that a successful season for the Bobcats.

But IMO they're both wrong this time.

nate, rookies can make an impact. Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried started on playoff teams. Kyrie Irving played like a veteran. Steph Curry made an impact as a rookie. (He had a 42 point game and three other games of 30+ points with 10+ assists). DeJuan Blair had a fine rookie season. (He had a 28 point 21 rebound game and a 27 point 23 rebound game as a rookie.) Micheal Kidd Gilchrist will make a tremendous impact as a rookie.

I've read what both of you have posted and I respect it a lot. You have heard my predictions, but I just want to give you a glimpse of what I base my analysis off of:

Gerald Henderson, 2012-2012 stats from various sites
=================================================
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ege02.html
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F30%2F2012
http://www.82games.com/1112/11CHA4.HTM


Ben Gordon, 2012-2012 stats from various sites
==========================================
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... obe01.html
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F30%2F2012
http://www.82games.com/1112/11DET5.HTM


Ramon Sessions, 2012-2012 stats from various sites
==============================================
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ira01.html
(Sessions with the Lakers)
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F30%2F2012
http://www.82games.com/1112/11LAL2.HTM
(Sessions with the Cavaliers
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F30%2F2012
http://www.82games.com/1112/11CLE2.HTM


Brendan Haywood, 2012-2012 stats from various sites
================================================
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... obr01.html
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F30%2F2012
http://www.82games.com/1112/11DAL16.HTM

I have looked at PER, WS/48, Win Produced, Points over Par, On/Off Different in terms of points per 100 possession--among other things. I've researched a few items.

Sessions played for Cleveland and LAL. How did he affect those teams? How did Haywood affect Dallas? How did Gordon affect Detroit? How did Henderson and Biyombo affect Charlotte?

Suffice to say that it is subjective, more art than science, trying to predict how the Bobcats will do--or any other team, the Wizards included.

I think they'll win 25-35 games, possibly a few more.

I don't think Walker will start at PG. I don't know that Henderson should start. Williams seems a better alternative at SG. MKG is the logical choice to start at SF and he will have an immediate impact. PF could be Mullin, but I think the Bobcats will opt for Biyombo. C will be Haywood, because MJ is the owner and the team is a Carolina team in Charlotte.

They'll be way better than a lot of people think.