thizznation wrote:Main Anti-West Arguments
-Lost to 68' Celtics?
-Missed some RS games.
-Not Athletic as T-Mac.
-All books, newspaper and sports articles are not credible sources since they were biased from West being white??
The tone of the conversation has seemed to change pretty drastically over the last few days. It seems like people really don't want West here. I'm fine with that, but I would like to hear some more reasonable, non-hyperbole laced Anti-West arguments here.
I'm not sure if I'm one of the "Anti-West" people that you're speaking of, though I was the one to mention TMac's athleticism so it would seem so. If so, I'd say that I'm in no way anti-West, I've just tended to be more pro- others that I've voted for so far. Obviously West has a case over TMac (or whoever else might get votes here), but to me it seems ridiculous on the opposite end to pretend that the only arguments presented to vote for TMac are the short list you made. Therealbig3, at the minimum, has been posting great TMac info for several threads now. I might not agree with it, but there's been plenty of volume of pro-Moses stuff. Barkley, Karl, Nash, Paul, Ewing...there's been plenty of stuff said about each of them so far that has nothing to do with any sort of anti-West theme. Couldn't it just be that, in comparison to other players, not everyone is as high on West as you?
As for TMac in particular, as I alluded to before, what I need to satisfy myself on is the impact of each player. Specifically TMac, as there has been some question raised about his RAPM numbers that I hadn't anticipated. But if you step out of the "impact" world, there is still plenty of ammunition for a TMac case. Here is the B-R breakdown for 2003 TMac vs 2008 West:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y2=2003If you start with the obvious: TMac averaged 32.1 ppg on 56.4% TS in the regular season, and 31.7 ppg on 56.1% TS in the postseason. West averaged 26.3 ppg on 59% TS in the regular season, and 30.8 points on 59.6% TS in the postseason.
Now, when doing the West/Dirk comparison I laid out some of the big confounders when comparing then and now, such that the pace for the West Lakers was DRAMATICALLY higher than for TMac's Magic, which has to play some unknown inflating value to West's points...but on the flip side, West was already the more efficient scorer and that's without the benefit of a 3-point line which would undoubtedly help his scoring efficiency to some unknown degree. So those are issues with no right answer, when put into context.
But on the flip side, unlike with Dirk 11, I think that even with those confounding issues it's pretty clear that TMac was doing heavier offensive lifting for his team than West was doing for his. Even if you don't like the pace adjustments, you can just look at percentage of team points scored. Even if we go by the playoffs where West's scoring increased, he was still "only" scoring 30.8 out of his team's 113.5 ppg, or about 27%. If you do the rough "each assist worth 2 points" thing, West was either scoring or assisting on 36.8% of the Lakers' points. On the flip side, TMac was scoring 31.7 points out of the Magic's 87.6 points per night in the postseason (36.2%), and either scoring or assisting on 47% of the points.
Now obviously, obviously, OBVIOUSLY I'm not saying that greater volume = greater player. No need for anyone to harp on that. That wasn't my point. But my point is that we can't just give West the benefit of his efficiency and the quality of his team's results but still ignore that TMac had to carry a heavier load and was having to do much more by himself. We need to look at all sides of the coin to tell the story.
Then we start getting more into the contextual, in-depth discussions that have been the norm in my interactions to date in this project. So again, I have no idea where that shot across the bow that you just gave came from. But I'd start looking at impact, and the in/out numbers suggest that West's was immense. Was TMac's? Well, RAMP says no. But according to the on/off +/- and 2-year APM studies that Rosenbaum did yeah, TMac's impact was pretty huge as well. And as therealbig3 pointed out, when I take a step back and remember the actual game that TMac played, with the quality of his teammates, with the box scores, AND with the other +/- stats thrown in, it sure seems like everything but RAPM is telling the same story in this instance. And then when you further add in that a) RAPM relies on previous year data, of which they only have partial for 2002, b) RAPM uses that previous year data to normalize, which if TMac's '03 was an outlier (which it was) would mean that RAPM scales it back, and c) (something I haven't heard anyone mention yet) the ridge regression in RAPM by-definition prevents any one teammate from showing up as extremely bad (instead normalizing all towards the middle)...so if TMac's teammates were truly heinous (which I would argue that they were), RAPM could in fact over-estimate them at the expense of under-estimating TMac. So yeah, at the end of a closer look, I find myself siding towards TMac having a pretty big measured impact in addition to his video game box score stats.
So then we move to portability...West was an ideally portable lead guard, capable of working on- or off- the ball and with a deadly jumper. What about TMac? Well, he was a wing with a versatile scoring game that worked off the ball, that also could facillitate very well with low turnovers. Two years prior to 2003 he had cut his teeth as a defensive/hustle specialist, and he was friggin 6-9 with stupid athletic ability. So yeah, it would seem that he was pretty portable as well.
So again, in the end, for me it comes down to whether West's in/out impact was enough to overcome TMac's better box score stats, heavier lifting of a poorer team, but still excellent portability, and yes, TMac's greater physical gifts that give his peak more upside IMO. As yet, I'm still leaning towards TMac having the greater overall package. But I'm reading/listening, and certainly willing to be convinced.
(And as I said, if someone comes back really pushing on Ewing I could see my vote shifting away from the perimeter players entirely).
Here are the top-minute getters McGrady worked with:
