Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Not to hurt feelings but I think the Wizards just haven't been good judges of talent. Year after year well before the draft I suggest names who have turned out to be way better than who they select.

I think EG is blessed and highly favored to have a job and the he and his long-term scouts should be thankful. They could have been much more successful by doing what I and many others who post here have suggested early on. The consensus of us have been far more insightful on personnel moves. However, we don't have Ted Leonsis' agenda/business plan, and we aren't ingratiated/ingrafted/connected/whatever like EG. Their draft day and free agent decisions come from a different perspective IMO than those of us primarily concerned with Washington winning more games.

YODA, doclinkin, Dat2U, nate--some others to come around in the last couple years; have been way ahead of the moves EG has made. This season the media will praise the Wizards organization for being knucklehead-free but they could have had elite talent through the draft and better cap to boot. Instead they have an owner who talks about the reality of no free agent wanting to play in DC.

I hope this season goes well. I love the toughness of this Wizards team. I like Randy Wittman's coaching. Things will be better. Regardless, I think EG is average at best and very lucky to have been collecting checks for so long. I don't like this owner that much, but it's early in the game.

[Kanyewest]

Bottomline is that EG, perhaps with a backing by Pollin, bet on Arenas thinking that he would at least retain some effectiveness coming off of his knee surgery. It is easy now with hindsight to criticize the move to bring him back along with Jamison. However Arenas was still an effective shooter even in that playoff series against Cleveland. Somehow the injuries limited Arenas both mentally and physically and never became close to the same player again.

The jury is really still out on what the Wizards would have done with a healthy Arenas. The Wizards were competitive with the Cavaliers which was a team that ultimately made it to the NBA finals.

Now, I'm not sure if EG should keep his job based on the Foye/Miller trade or the hiring of Flip Saunders. Perhaps the Foye/Miller trade was more than anything of an approach that the Wizards were going to try to win now because of Abe Pollin. Bottomline though is that the Wizards were not in a win-now mode not because of that move but because Arenas never came close to the player he was in his prime, heck he wasn't even the player he was in the 2008 playoffs. Plus Caron Butler regressed under Saunders.

[verbal8]

The better-run organizations loaded up on prospects and will making roster decisions after camp-battles and preseason. In several cases 2nd round and undrafted players have already earned 3-year contracts.

I don't necessarily think those 3 year deals are "earned" yet. I think they are likely an attempt to lock down cheap talent. I think teams realize the luxury tax with some teeth makes cap management very important and saving 4 million dollars(mid-level vs. minimum) at the bottom of the rotation could easily really be 8 or 12 million when you factor in the luxury tax.

[payitforward]

...can't disagree that Faried and Leonard ...better ...(but) still believe that Ves will turn out to be the real deal—and worthy of a top 10 pick.

...not a big fan of Fields....

By going with vets like Ariza, Okafor, Price and Webster the Zards clearly made a decision to try to be competitive now....

That may turn out to be a mistake. Then again it may turn out to be a great decision. We'll see.

...Wall-Beal, what I expect to be one of the best young backcourts in the game

...establish a winning culture now rather than later...

Pulled out of your response what I want to comment on:

I agree about Vesely. But that doesn't mean he was as good a pick as Leonard. Either you make the best choice or you don't. If you don't, that's called failure to do your job to a high level.

Fields? He has had 2 seasons -- one of the best and most surprising rookie seasons in a long time, esp. for a round 2 pick, and a less good second season. But a) both seasons were way better than John Wall's (see your "I expect..." below), b) he is young enough that there is significant development ahead of him, c) even his 2d season was better than Ariza's recent seasons by a fair amount, d) he makes *much less* than Ariza and is signed through his best development years, and e) unlike Ariza he actually upgrades our *core*.

Competitive now? -- Trevor Ariza is below average for a starting SF, Price and Webster are wash-out busts. Okafor has declined year by year for quite some time and makes $14m. These guys are going to make a team "competitive now?" Please.... And, for these guys you mortgage a shot at enhancing your young core?

"...may turn out a mistake... may turn out a great decision" To make room for A.J. Price you pass on young talent? And that may turn out to be a great decision?

Wall and Beal -- You "expect" Wall to be one of the best. Not "hope" but "expect." Ditto Beal. That's called magical thinking. Assuming the conclusion you hope for in order to justify subsequent decisions based on that assumption. No thanks. That's how to create a loser.

When you *win games* you get "a winning culture." It doesn't go the other way.

[DCZards]

payit, as the old folks might say "you're a piece of work."

[hands11]

The issue some of us have Zard is that the Wizards were too-lazy to find-out who the best talent might be to play on the team and chose clearance-bin rentals instead. Price was a low-usage barely "vet", Webster's Injury history is well-known.

The better-run organizations loaded up on prospects and will making roster decisions after camp-battles and preseason. In several cases 2nd round and undrafted players have already earned 3-year contracts.

If it turns-out that Will Barton (example) is better than Webster or that Machado is better than Price, they will already be on other teams.

Right. So answer this. Are you staking ground that players like those two will not be available in the future ? I just can't get past this idea that because we didn't get those players this year that some how there will not be more players like that next year or the year after.

They made a decision to take a course. They didn't want more rookies added this year. They are building around the group of young players they already have. They added Beal. They tanked to get that high pick. They traded two non leaders for a legit front court leader. And they barely secured the 3rd pick in doing so. Just one or two more wins would have hurt the tank. Like it or not, that was the plan and the executed it well. And that is why Ves was a viable pick for them last year. They knew he was a scrappy player with good BBIQ that was not a scorer but in a few years would be a 6-11 legit player. Not NBA ready is fine if you plan of tanking that year. In a strike shortened year.

This year was about adding more vets, not rookies so Wall would have a more mature stable NBA experienced roster in his 3rd year.... for the first time in his career. Wall was the #1 pick. You want to maximize that asset. And Beal walks into a way better situation then Wall did so he should transition faster. Kawhi Leonard was drafted 15th. Lots of team passed on him. And besides, you think he would have had the same year he did last year if he was on the Wizards ? No, he wouldn't have.

So sure, they could have done lots of other things. But only players who fit with in the plan matter. So disregard any rookies this year other then the #3 pick. Disregard any NBA ready players last year. And disregard anyone who they would have needed to overpay this year on a contract longer then 1 or 2 years. Only consider trades for Lewis that would have actually worked.

And after you do all of that. Get over it. It didn't happen. You have a viable team better then anything you have seen in 20 years. By next year they will be better then any Gil, CB, AJ team we ever had and they have tons of upside from there. Most likely they impress most of you this year and all this complaining will be for nothing because you will jump on the bang wagon and say... opps and you will claim how you believed all along.

All they likely need is a SF to add to Wall, Beal and Nene while keeping the majority of their depth and they will have a legit second round team. From there you evaluate what the best next move is.

So sit back and enjoy until you actually have some evidence that shows this was all a mistake and the new path is not going to work. You will start to have that evidence in about 30 days.

[hands11]

So, because Abe was the team owner, Ernie bears zero responsibility for the team he was supposed to be running? Man, I'd love to have a multi-million dollar a year job working for someone who thinks like that. You hiring? I'm happy to do no accountability, no responsibility work for mid-six figures.

But wouldn't "accountability" be measured by how happy the owner is with your job performance? We all do our jobs the way our superiors direct us to. A lot of the stuff we do at my office is completely idiotic, but I still do it because it's what they want to see. Just because a GM's salary is much higher than mine doesn't mean they same concept doesn't apply to at least some extent. Obviously none of us were privy to their conversations, but if Abe essentially said "I know Gilbert is coming off an injury and Jamison is getting past his prime, but I want those guys back no matter what", what was Ernie supposed to do? Resign because of his conscience? (Same thing with any other GM that may be directed to sell off contracts because the owner wants to save money, or something like that.)

I've said that Ernie has made some missteps (the Blatche extension and waiting too long to trade McGee immediately come to mind, although the second one still turned out pretty good IMO). But I do disagree with the thought that we shouldn't account at all for an owner's influence in the decisions any GM makes.

Exactly. Abe/EG. If someone can post any facts that separate the EG decisions from that front office, I would love to read them. From what people post, you would think the GM is the owner and GM all in one.

[hands11]

Not to hurt feelings but I think the Wizards just haven't been good judges of talent. Year after year well before the draft I suggest names who have turned out to be way better than who they select.

I think EG is blessed and highly favored to have a job and the he and his long-term scouts should be thankful. They could have been much more successful by doing what I and many others who post here have suggested early on. The consensus of us have been far more insightful on personnel moves. However, we don't have Ted Leonsis' agenda/business plan, and we aren't ingratiated/ingrafted/connected/whatever like EG. Their draft day and free agent decisions come from a different perspective IMO than those of us primarily concerned with Washington winning more games.

YODA, doclinkin, Dat2U, nate--some others to come around in the last couple years; have been way ahead of the moves EG has made. This season the media will praise the Wizards organization for being knucklehead-free but they could have had elite talent through the draft and better cap to boot. Instead they have an owner who talks about the reality of no free agent wanting to play in DC.

I hope this season goes well. I love the toughness of this Wizards team. I like Randy Wittman's coaching. Things will be better. Regardless, I think EG is average at best and very lucky to have been collecting checks for so long. I don't like this owner that much, but it's early in the game.

Then pick a side and stick to it. You used to be one of my favorite posters but now you seem to be take both sides to often. If you believe, then hope for the best until things prove out differently. For now, they have made their moves. Lets see how it works out. Because as it is, you are saddling the fence. You give some praise and then you take tons of shots at them. I sure hope you don't bring it latter like you supported the plan all along. Because you haven't. You seem to like Charlotte and Denver more then the Wizards.

[hands11]

Bottomline is that EG, perhaps with a backing by Pollin, bet on Arenas thinking that he would at least retain some effectiveness coming off of his knee surgery. It is easy now with hindsight to criticize the move to bring him back along with Jamison. However Arenas was still an effective shooter even in that playoff series against Cleveland. Somehow the injuries limited Arenas both mentally and physically and never became close to the same player again.

The jury is really still out on what the Wizards would have done with a healthy Arenas. The Wizards were competitive with the Cavaliers which was a team that ultimately made it to the NBA finals.

Now, I'm not sure if EG should keep his job based on the Foye/Miller trade or the hiring of Flip Saunders. Perhaps the Foye/Miller trade was more than anything of an approach that the Wizards were going to try to win now because of Abe Pollin. Bottomline though is that the Wizards were not in a win-now mode not because of that move but because Arenas never came close to the player he was in his prime, heck he wasn't even the player he was in the 2008 playoffs. Plus Caron Butler regressed under Saunders.

For the record. My view is not hind sight. I didn't believe Gil was worth that kind of cash and I said trade him while he had value the year before. Before he got injured. That sounded crazy to some at the time, but man we could have gotten some assets and won big if we had done that. I never thought Gil would be a part of a sound second round team. I also said do the same with AJ while you could. He was a Lewis type expiring contract at one point. Or sign him for money where you could bring him off the bench.

Now do I think these kind of moves would have happened if Ted was owner at the time. I think they would have been much more likely. Why ? Ted has different standards and a longer term target.

[montestewart]

^
Arenas was part of a 2nd round team.

[hands11]

^
Arenas was part of a 2nd round team.

Sound second round team .. are you claiming they were that ?

[montestewart]

^
Arenas was part of a 2nd round team.

Sound second round team .. are you claiming they were that ?

I don't know what "sound second round" means, but it has a nice nursery rhyme sound to it. Of course Arenas could have been part of a better team, regardless of what you think. He just needed a better GM to construct it.

You're wearing out the tread on that claim that you called right on Arenas, and you always phrase it as if you were the only one. I recall a number of people saying he should be moved while the getting was good, almost everyone urging that Jamison should be moved as an expiring, and many people saying before and after the re-ups that they were both costing the team too much. Since in hindsight you always seem to think that you've predicted everything with 100% accuracy, yet you routinely misstate or flat out forget what you wrote a few posts up on the same page, I think I'm going to just go ahead and assume you didn't say any of that stuff about Arenas, and it's some sort of implanted memory regarding what is now a distant and hazy past, and all the records were lost in a fire. Prove me wrong, sound second round.

[closg00]

I think some board members were drunk-posting last night

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Then pick a side and stick to it. You used to be one of my favorite posters but now you seem to be take both sides to often. If you believe, then hope for the best until things prove out differently. For now, they have made their moves. Lets see how it works out. Because as it is, you are saddling the fence. You give some praise and then you take tons of shots at them. I sure hope you don't bring it latter like you supported the plan all along. Because you haven't. You seem to like Charlotte and Denver more then the Wizards.

I am not taking both sides. Some Wizards improvements are certain. They be a 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th seed--I don't know. The preseason hasn't started so I'm not too comfortable to predict. I think they'll be 9th, but it wouldn't surprise me if this season they made the playoffs with something like a 37 or 38-win season.

If the Wizards win 45 games, then EG/Ted are right and I'm wrong. That is enough of a winning bump to say they built the team expensively but it was worth it. I figure that winning bump will require good health by Nene, good team chemistry, and bounce back years from both Ariza and Okafor; or Wittman to have the courage to bench them for the young players if they don't get it done. That and the young guys will have to play better if Ariza and Okafor continue their play of the last few years. Things CAN go right if the perfect storm of good happens. I still think EG at best has purchased mediocrity at a high cost.

hands, the Wizards management IMO is sorry. Ernie Grunfeld has been so bad so long I can't stand it. I don't like the way Gilbert was treated at the end. I don't like the way EJ was fired 11 games after the playoffs. Flip came in and sucked. I hate being a fan of a futile, losing team that hasn't been past the first round but one time in the last 35 years. In watching what the Wizards management does wrong year after year, I am reminded I love basketball and other teams are doing things right.

I am gushing over what Denver has done and what Charlotte has done. I like it when teams like Golden State are smart enough to draft Steph Curry. Ernie acquired Flip's guys that he must have watched play with Minnesota, Foye and Miller. I will love watching Crowder at Dallas. I know Will Barton is going to be a stud. The reason I don't like the Wizards organization is I've posted here for free for years. I told their asses about Faried a year and a half before he was drafted. So, yeah, I think they're not too sharp and don't want to be embarrassed and do want to do things their way even if they don't win games. Yep, I guess that makes me sore.

hands, since you say I used to be your favorite let me tell you what I see from your posts. You remind me of this:



hands, I'm having a hard time getting past your defensiveness and your killing the messenger. All this is is message board where I may be as wrong as wrong can be. I don't stradle the fence. I still like Morris Almond even if his Wizards PER was something like 8. He's playing in Belgrade this coming season. I can be wrong and still man up, but one thing I can't take is carping with posters.

hands, if I get too depressing for you, just put me on ignore.

[I_Like_Dirt]

So, because some folks imagine that Abe MIGHT have mandated specific roster moves over Ernie's objections, Ernie bears no responsibility for the moves?

Dunno, but that sounds absurd to me.

Those are monumental "ifs".

I do like envisioning Ernie trying these arguments in a job interview where he was asked to explain the challenges of his past job and what he's learned from them and having him answer that he did a perfect job since he did exactly as he was told by his boss/the owner of the franchise and so, although the results/product were overwhelmingly sub-par for the past decade, it wasn't his fault because he was just following orders. If I were the one hiring, I know what I'd think of that kind of answer.

[payitforward]

So, because some folks imagine that Abe MIGHT have mandated specific roster moves over Ernie's objections, Ernie bears no responsibility for the moves?

Dunno, but that sounds absurd to me.

Those are monumental "ifs".

I do like envisioning Ernie trying these arguments in a job interview where he was asked to explain the challenges of his past job and what he's learned from them and having him answer that he did a perfect job since he did exactly as he was told by his boss/the owner of the franchise and so, although the results/product were overwhelmingly sub-par for the past decade, it wasn't his fault because he was just following orders. If I were the one hiring, I know what I'd think of that kind of answer.

Yes, but Ernie isn't looking for his next job. He's well into his '60s, and he's extending this one as long as he can before retiring. He's a terrible GM, you bet, but he has managed to hold onto this job through *a decade* despite producing awful results.

[closg00]

Hopefully we are bringing-in Mo Evans to groom as a Ernie's replacement. We desperately need a young, smart, quick-on-his feet GM who knows something about team-building and actually managing a team.

[hands11]

Yeah. It would be totally absurd for a GM to follow the game plan of the person who owns the company and pays the salaries.

I can only speak from personal experience.

The owner of my company loves to be in control of these things but hates to get his hands dirty actually doing the research required to make the right discussion. He has his own agenda. Once upon a time he was more plugged in so I suspect he draws on that history of making the right calls and thinks he can still do it. And back then, not only was he plugged in, but we meet more often and make group decisions. I think as he gets older, he has gotten more lazy about things. He has his so he can deal with the mistakes. Because it is so hard to evaluate the other paths that didn't happen, he thinks he is doing a good job making those decisions.

He doesn't really want to do what is required to make the right call but at the same time, he doesn't want to give up that much control. He tries to give it up at times, but in the end he takes it back whenever he wants.
And he doesn't see the insanity of doing things that way.

Yeah, sounds crazy but it happens all the time with owners. It is their company. They can decide whatever they want to decide. It your job to make the best of their decisions.

Now I could leave and go somewhere and I think about that often. Then I say, why ? I get paid well.

This kind of stuff happens all the time.

[montestewart]

So if all the decisions, good and bad, are attributable to the owner, why keep EG around? He doesn't do anything.

[closg00]

Yeah. It would be totally absurd for a GM to follow the game plan of the person who owns the company and pays the salaries.

I can only speak from personal experience.

The owner of my company loves to be in control of these things but hates to get his hands dirty actually doing the research required to make the right discussion. He has his own agenda. Once upon a time he was more plugged in so I suspect he draws on that history of making the right calls and thinks he can still do it. And back then, not only was he plugged in, but we meet more often and make group decisions. I think as he gets older, he has gotten more lazy about things. He has his so he can deal with the mistakes. Because it is so hard to evaluate the other paths that didn't happen, he thinks he is doing a good job making those decisions.

He doesn't really want to do what is required to make the right call but at the same time, he doesn't want to give up that much control. He tries to give it up at times, but in the end he takes it back whenever he wants.
And he doesn't see the insanity of doing things that way.

Yeah, sound crazy but it happens all the time with owners. It is their company. They can decide whatever they want to decide. It your job to make the best of their decisions.

Now I could leave and go somewhere and I think about that often. Then I say, why ? I get paid well.

This kind of stuff happens all the time.

Yes!!!! ABSOLUTELY