Will this be John Walls breakout year?

[nuposse04]

Why do people think he'll be more pass first when his 3 best offensive teammates are Nene, Kevin Seraphin, and Bradley Beal? The team is devoid of scoring talent. If Wall is going to take a jump anywhere, it's going to be in his scoring numbers, not his passing.

I'll take Nene and Beal over young and mcgee. Also okafor moves Nene to the 4 booting out blatche. There's plenty of guys who can finish better than what they use to have. Ariza can at least run with Wall..

I realize that, but I just anticipate some struggles from that team given that there's no proven player on the roster who can score at least a semi-efficient 15-20 points per night besides maybe Nene.

15-20 might be hard for us, true. It will be a balanced effort for the most part. I expect an average jumpshot for Wall this season, which, for him would be remarkably great. If he's actually been doing well this offseason like I hear than maybe there is valid room to hope he'll manage games better and have noticeable more efficiency. Is he going to be scoring like Westbrook? No he isn't that confident with his shot yet...but I think between 18-20 ppg is within reach.

Nene Should be good for about 16 ppg as well. People should also take notice on Seraphin, if his rebounding improves, he'll probably be the most physically imposing center in the east not named Bynum. He has pretty damn good post moves for only his 2nd season and was a solid defender. He was easily averaging double figures once McGee's dumbass was shipped out. All our supporting players a decently efficent as well, no star power but they can play, Booker is the perfect bigman off the bench, Jan actually looked like he had a jumpshot in Vegas summer league and C. Singleton....well I don't know, he tries. Beal has the pedigree to be good this season, I have my doubts as to if he can score 15+ a night efficiently early on.

Washington's best chance at success is to become a defensive oriented team and grind out wins like Chicago and Memphis. Those teams are still offensively better than us, but I can see us trying to build an analogous way of winning like those clubs.

[Sasaki]

Wall will and the Wizards will break out this year. Not like they will compete for the Finals, but they will be a better playoff team than people think. The trade did more than just improve the bbiq of the team, but also the physicality, and the team competed, rather than just playing.

It also allowed Wall to revert back to being a more natural pass first point guard, rather than the less natural score first point guard he played because the traded players were not competitors.

Then also, because of the newly infused competiveness of the team, Wall will really breakout defensively as well. He will be the #1 defensive point guard, along with 18 and 9, with 5 re's, and about 1.5 blocks per game.

1.5 blocks. What.

Dwyane Wade, arguably the greatest shotblocker for his size ever, has averaged a block a game throughout his career, and NEVER 1.5.

[rockymac52]

If you take Rose's shooting percentage numbers from different distances from the hoop from his 3rd season, his MVP season, and give Wall those same percentages, with the same amount of field goals attempted from each location this past season, not including 3 pointers and at the basket (Wall was better in the latter), Wall would have scored an additional 1.4 PPG. That's all he would have got.

[Dr Positivity]

Okay, let's go with your 1/3 physical, 1/3 skills, 1/3 IQ method, for a second. Never mind the fact that it's an incredibly simplistic and unrealistic way to evaluate players, for now.

You say Wall has the 1/3 physical. But not the 1/3 skills and 1/3 IQ.

Why do you think he doesn't have a high basketball IQ? I get that your hypothesis leads you to believe that given his physical tools, any player with a halfway decent basketball IQ would be an all-star, but that's simply wrong.

You know what, nevermind. I don't even want to waste my time explaining how ridiculous what you said was.

Well my system refers to the last 1/3 as "feel for the game". I don't have a problem with the IQ label but I think feel for the game gets more to the point of what I'm looking for.

I look for two major things in regards to feel for the game - a) Whether the game looks like it's moving fast or slow for them, b) Whether they "make it look easy" and natural. Wall when he drives feels out of control, not all that spatially aware of where he is vs teammates, and relying on just being a wrecking ball of speed/power. He doesn't have a lot of ability to adjust mid-play or pace/craftiness. Whether he makes it look easy is a different question - one thing about Wall that may give a somewhat illusion of feel for the game is that he's such a stunning/graceful athlete, that he it be his athleticism that's so aesthetically pleasing, but not his game. I don't think the game comes particularly easily to him, actually.

Because of the high standards of the PG position, I would personally put Wall as somewhere between average and below average in feel for the game, based on what I've seen so far.

By my system it doesn't say elite physical tools and halfway decent bball IQ is enough to be an all-star btw. To put it in numerical terms if you've seen the Statistical Analysis forum thread, a score of say a perfect 11 in physical tools, 5 in feel for the game, and 2 in skill, which is about what I'd give Wall for a PG, adds up to 18, which by the way the system is designed is meant to be worth as much as an 18 PER player (So a good player but not a clearcut all-star). Serge Ibaka would probably have a very similar top of the line physical/ok feel for the game/weak skill split for PFs, and is also not an all-star. If you're wondering what Derrick Rose is, I have him as 11 physical, 5 skill and 7 feel for the game (23).

[drewCo]

If you take Rose's shooting percentage numbers from different distances from the hoop from his 3rd season, his MVP season, and give Wall those same percentages, with the same amount of field goals attempted from each location this past season, not including 3 pointers and at the basket (Wall was better in the latter), Wall would have scored an additional 1.4 PPG. That's all he would have got.

That's gives good perspective. On the other side it would be interesting to see what his percentages would have looked like had he matched Drose's FGA.

[Brenice]

Wall will and the Wizards will break out this year. Not like they will compete for the Finals, but they will be a better playoff team than people think. The trade did more than just improve the bbiq of the team, but also the physicality, and the team competed, rather than just playing.

It also allowed Wall to revert back to being a more natural pass first point guard, rather than the less natural score first point guard he played because the traded players were not competitors.

Then also, because of the newly infused competiveness of the team, Wall will really breakout defensively as well. He will be the #1 defensive point guard, along with 18 and 9, with 5 re's, and about 1.5 blocks per game.

1.5 blocks. What.

Dwyane Wade, arguably the greatest shotblocker for his size ever, has averaged a block a game throughout his career, and NEVER 1.5.

1.5 may be a lil high but I stand by Wall proving to be a better shotblocker than Wade. Wade goes up with power for his blocks but Wall goes up and hovers like a helicopter when he blocks shots from behind the player going to the rim

[Sc0pe92]

I wonder how he will play next to bradley beal

[kasino]

two seasons of 16/8/4 and shooting better each season you would think people wouldn't act as if he is a bust
better scorers would open up for better looks for him and possibly more assist
the kid is a stud, wonder what would be consider a breakout year for him?

[BrooklynBulls]

If you take Rose's shooting percentage numbers from different distances from the hoop from his 3rd season, his MVP season, and give Wall those same percentages, with the same amount of field goals attempted from each location this past season, not including 3 pointers and at the basket (Wall was better in the latter), Wall would have scored an additional 1.4 PPG. That's all he would have got.

If you take Rose's shooting percentages from his MVP season and give them to John Wall, he'd average 1.4 more points a game on much better efficiency, average less turnovers, open the floor up for his team, and add anywhere from about 3-8 wins to his team. Yeah. That's..."all."

And just to add, though Wall his 1% more of his inside field goals, he had less OF them. 6.4 points inside to Rose's 7.1. Part of Rose's ability to get to the rim was the ability to completely leave the first guy standing there, respecting Rose's jumper too much to play off of him. It also greatly helped Rose's ft volume, to have primary defenders not even in the picture, forcing bigs to foul.

What Rose does once he's at the the rim is what makes him a special player. It's the same for Wall. He needs the jumper to open that up further, to open the floor for everybody else, and to give him a chance to score when the defense has done everything correctly and prevented him from getting to the rim.

[Winsome Gerbil]

I'm saying yes, but not breakout as in superstar. Just breakout as in settles in behind all those vets up front, starts playing more in control, begins to be a positve force almost every night etc. Possibly sets up a breakout in 13-14.

[Bravenewworld]

Im saying no.
I dont think Wall will have a "break-out" year that people expect him to, ever. Of course im not saying he will not improve, but i just dont see him becoming what Rose is or CP3, or any of these top PGs that people want to consider him as eventually being and i do not see his numbers drastically increasing in one or two seasons, rather a gradual and small increases.

[flashstinson0]

How can a guy be a bust when his career averages are 16 PPG and 8 APG and 4 RPG????

If he has a breakout season you guys do realize that'd be in the neighborhood of 20-22 Points 10-12 Assist and 5-7 Boards per?

That's big big time for a 22 year old in his 3rd year, he'd have the best numbers for a guard in the L, hands down.

Wall is not a bust at all, he just needs to polish his O.

im not sure what exactly makes you think he would automatically have those types of numbers just because hes had a breakout year. the numbers you posted arent breakout year type numbers, they're fairy tale type numbers.

Can you read??????

I said IS THAT WHAT PEOPLE EXPECT FOR HIM TO AVERAGE IN ORDER TO HAVE A BREAKOUT YEAR!!!!!

His numbers are already beyond solid, all he has to do is polish up his offensive skills and start winning.

So read vefore you post dummy.

[dangermouse]

He just doesn't have enough going for him in his game past physical tools. I estimate physical tools as making up about 1/3 of talent. So while Wall might be GOAT level in that area for his position, if he's like below average in the other 2/3s he'll only get so far. I estimate just being average in skill/IQ for his position would make him an all-star though so he has a shot

Don't you know it takes 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain and 100% reason to remember the name!

[dangermouse]

I wonder how he will play next to bradley beal

They are a match made in basketball heaven. I am more excited about seeing Beal and having those two in the back court than I am with a possible 'breakout' year for Wall.

Good shooter, great catch and shoot guy, can handle the ball well and has a nice bball iq, is a threat to penetrate, has a juicy looking floater in the lane. Good defender too. He is just perfect to pair with Wall.

[xclearscreen]

if he doesn't can we continue to say his teammates sucks?

[bledredwine]

If you take Rose's shooting percentage numbers from different distances from the hoop from his 3rd season, his MVP season, and give Wall those same percentages, with the same amount of field goals attempted from each location this past season, not including 3 pointers and at the basket (Wall was better in the latter), Wall would have scored an additional 1.4 PPG. That's all he would have got.

If you take Rose's shooting percentages from his MVP season and give them to John Wall, he'd average 1.4 more points a game on much better efficiency, average less turnovers, open the floor up for his team, and add anywhere from about 3-8 wins to his team. Yeah. That's..."all."

And just to add, though Wall his 1% more of his inside field goals, he had less OF them. 6.4 points inside to Rose's 7.1. Part of Rose's ability to get to the rim was the ability to completely leave the first guy standing there, respecting Rose's jumper too much to play off of him. It also greatly helped Rose's ft volume, to have primary defenders not even in the picture, forcing bigs to foul.

What Rose does once he's at the the rim is what makes him a special player. It's the same for Wall. He needs the jumper to open that up further, to open the floor for everybody else, and to give him a chance to score when the defense has done everything correctly and prevented him from getting to the rim.

Thank you. These people claiming a jump shot is the only difference between Wall and Rose ( ) makes me wonder if they've ever watched Rose finish. Rose is definitely stronger, quicker, and can make crazy plays at the rim with tough defense (see lay-up against Lebron/Wade, crafty). To say Wall's as good of a finisher or defender is silly. He has the potential, dude's going into his 3rd season now, but just...no.

So I'm supposed to believe Wall improving his jumper would give him 9 more PPG on higher efficiency? Hmm....

[bledredwine]

The stats suggest Wall is a better finisher. Wall made 62% of his shots at the rim, Rose made just 58% last year and 60% the year before. And this despite Wall having to finish against tougher interior defense because opposing defenses can pack the lane (since neither Wall nor his teammates can shoot from the perimeter). Wall also averaged .45 free throws per shot attempt (compared to Rose's .34).

I also challenge the notion that Rose is a better defender, though defense is harder to prove with statistics.

Rose is a much better midrange shooter. That's the dramatic difference in their games. If Wall ever learns to shoot a respectable percentage from midrange, there's no reason at all to think that he won't be roughly as good as a healthy Rose. Wall also has better court vision.

Well said Nate. Also @bledredwine, I doubt Wall will average 20+ ppg. With the addition of Nene Okafor and Beal, Wall will be able to play his more natural style as a pass first point guard. I'm still a firm believer that EVEN if wall doesn't improve his outside shot, he can still be a game changer with his passing. Im expecting 18ppg and 9-10 assists with a SLIGHT bump in efficiency.

I actually agree with this. And as a floor general, Wall shows tons of potential. Honestly, I do think he needs the right players around him...... Next year will definitely be an improvement.

And your predictions are accurate: I was saying best case scenario.

[MalonesElbows]

He has one year left to save him from bust status. The troubling signs are he didn't improve one ounce from his rookie year to sophomore year. He also led his team to 20 wins, Rose led his team to 62 wins his sophomore year.

[Brenice]

That is absolutely ridiculous. Wall is far from a bust.

[bullsnewdynasty]

He has one year left to save him from bust status. The troubling signs are he didn't improve one ounce from his rookie year to sophomore year. He also led his team to 20 wins, Rose led his team to 62 wins his sophomore year.

That was actually his 3rd year, but Rose did carry a crap supporting cast to the playoffs his 2nd year, pretty much single handedly. In the 2nd half of that season he averaged something like 22/6.5 on 50% shooting.