colts18 wrote:ElGee wrote:So only 1 team in the modern era won a title lower than a 3 seed. In fact 5 out of 6 NBA champions are 1 or 2 seeds. That shows how important seeding is in the NBA.
What do you think the correlation is between seeding and quality of team?
Seeding is still important when it comes to good teams. I looked at every team from 84-12 that was a 4 seed or lower and had a 4+ SRS.
39 teams qualify:
avg seed: 4.5
53-29 average record
5.10 SRS
22-39 series record (.361)
Twice the team with the best SRS in the league was in this sample and they combined for 2 series wins. the 10 Jazz had the best conference SRS but were swept in the 2nd round (hmmm).
So you want the 2010 Utah Jazz to be one of 39 examples as to how HCA matters because you made a very convoluted effort to control for team strength?
Do you realize that the 2010 Lakers were coming off 2 FInals appearance, probably weren't playing full throttle and had their 3 best players miss a total of 43 games? Or that they matchup with the Jazz so well (that team was overwhelmed inside) that they beat them by an average of 13.8 ppg during the year? The Lakers were 36-11 with Bynum, Gasol and Bryant starting (63-win pace) and a 49-win pace otherwise. (You can check the SRS's if you want.) Guess which team
brutalized Utah?
But simply, and most importantly,
each team played the same number of home games in the series!18 out of the 39 won their 1st round series (.461). They faced each other in 7 series so when they didn't face each other, they had a .440 1st round series win% (11-14). Only 3 out of 39 teams even made it to the CF. Those were the 90 Suns who had the best SRS in the NBA that year yet still lost because they didn't have HCA in the WCF
And again, what's the issue here?
The 90 Suns played the same number of home games as the Blazers they lost to. (Not to mention they beat the 6.7 Lakers the round before w.out HCA!)
, the 94 Jazz who beat the 8th seed Nuggets in the 2nd round so a fluke, and 06 Mavs who actually had the #2 record and had HCA in the WCF. Only the Mavs made it to the finals. Mind you, here is the average NBA finalist loser since 84:
56 wins
5.36 SRS
1.97 avg seed
So they literally have similar SRS, yet they those "good" teams never made it far while the finalist losers did because they were the higher seed. If that is not proof then I don't know what is. Let's limit it to 4 seeds or worse with a 5 SRS or better:
4.45 seed average
54 wins average
5.72 SRS
13-20 (.394) series record
10 out of the 20 won in the 1st round
And why didn't you control for the OPPONENT quality? You list these teams but don't mention the quality of their opponent. Because...
and only 2 out of the 20 (90 Suns and 06 Mavs) even advanced to the conference finals. needless to say, none of those teams won the title. If you limit to 6 SRS teams, they were only 3-4 (.429) with a 7.09 SRS average and just 1 conference finals berth. These are elite teams yet they never advanced far because they had low seeds.
No, they are elite teams that didn't advanced because they often played
better teams. Or they just lost with HCA themselves.
92 Suns 5.7 SRS. Lost to 6.9 SRS team
94 Spurs 5.1 SRS. Lost to 4.1 SRS team (we've been over that one before, eh? And they played
the same number of home games.)
95 Sonics 7.9 SRS. Lost to 0 SRS Lakers...WITH HCA.
97 Hawks 5.5 SRS beat Pistons 5.5 SRS (in 5th game w HCA)
97 Hawks 5.5 SRS lose to 10.7 SRS Bulls
00 Spurs 5.9 SRS lose to Suns 5.2 SRS...WITH HCA (no Duncan obviously)
00 Suns 5.2 SRS lose to 8.4 SRS Lakers
01 Jazz 5.0 SRS lose to 4.6 SRS Mavs...WITH HCA
04 Kings 5.4 SRS lose to 5.9 SRS Timberwolves (in 7 games)
05 Mavs 5.9 SRS lose to 7.1 SRS Suns
06 Mavs 6.0 SRS beat 6.7 SRS SPurs (w/out HCA)
06 Mavs 6.0 SRS lose to 3.6 SRS Heat...
same number of home games played07 Rockets 5.0 SRS lose to 3.1 SRS Jazz in 7g...with HCA
08 Jazz 6.9 SRS lose to 7.3 SRS Lakers...same number of home games (and vastly superior team post Gasol trade)
08 Suns 5.1 SRS lose to 5.1 SRS Spurs...in 5g
09 Blazers 5.0 SRS lose to 3.7 SRS Rockets...with HCA
So your statement is about the furthest thing possible from the truth.
If you want further proof, here is how each final winner and loser ranked in conference SRS:
Avg winner: 1.86 in SRS
Avg loser: 2.10 in SRS
Now compare that to finalists based on seed:
avg winner: 1.66 seed
avg loser: 1.97 seed
Out of 58 finalists, 30 of them were #1 in conference SRS while 32 times they were #1 seed. 15 of them were #2 in SRS and 15 were #2 seed so 47 out of 58 were top 2 seed while 45 out of 58 were top 2 SRS. 54 out of 58 were a top 3 seed while only 51 out of 58 were a top 3 SRS. Only 1 NBA champion was worse than a 3 seed, while 4 NBA champions were worse than #3 in SRS including 2 #6 SRS teams.
The #1 seed in both conferences faced off against each other 10 times while the #1 SRS team faced off each other just 6 times.
You can't ignore the data. The facts are that Seed and HCA is more predictive in the playoffs than SRS. Thats why its so important.
And the facts are that attendance "predicts" team success using your correlative reasoning. Look up what a confounding variable is. Then read about causation and correlation. Do it like 10x so you never have to be corrected by someone like me ever again.