My criteria is easy peasy, either your team is a contender w/ a chance to win a championship, is a pretender which is a fringe playoff team, or they're just plain bad.
The contenders are the cream of the crop, they rise to the top, they never eat a pig because a pig is a cop, BUT contenders may also fall into pretender or just plain bad considering their championship window, the same way a pretender or bad team could easily become a future pretender or contender depending on player/ FA movement.
I'm also placing a high value on rookies cause after all, the NBA is dependent upon them transforming into the next stars (Durant), great players (Kobe), high quality players (Cassell), or great role players (Horry) of the League and some go onto fulfill their potential, some don't, some actually won a title as a rook.
I'm doing a Top 8 because 16 teams total from both conferences make the playoffs w/ 8 usually being perennial 1st RD fodder while the final 8 simply have a chance to win it, some greater than others but w/ the 2011 Mavs winning it all in a year they weren't projected to got hot at the right time and they took advantage of their time.
W/ that said here's my Top 8 Win Now selections & Top 8 Win Future teams in order:
TOP 8 WIN NOW CONTENDERS
1:
Short window of opportunity (1-2yrs) then it's over, meantime I don't see any team beating a Nash, Ginobili, Gasol, Hibbert core in 7 games and w/ them in the East, it makes their path much easier to get to the Finals. Year 2 they'd have to determine to bring back Manu + D Wright and likely they will but at what cost? If either of those guys leave (moreso Manu) then yr 2 window shuts.
2:
The Mavs win the West and have a 2yr window but I don't see Dirk, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford being quite enough to lead them over the Pacers but I see a 7 game series between them. Joe Johnson also being used at SF doesn't help either.
3:
W/ LeBron James and Marc Gasol, they'll always be a threat to win it all and w/ Brooks and Burks who'll only get better but their window will be determined by Jameer Nelson's health and if MarShon Brooks and LeBron share defacto PG duties, this team could easily be #1.
4:
Bobcats have a very nice defensive team w/ Rondo, Tony Allen, Granger, and Paul Millsap, I see their problem ultimately being scoring and if Granger can't get it together then this team is in for a really long season.
5:
I see the Thunder led by Kobe Bryant (who I'm still high on) w/ Luol Deng and Kenyon Martin along w/ Reggie Evans and vet PG Andre Miller as being able to “out tough” most of the teams in the BaT. Brook Lopez and his health will determine how much of a threat this team can be w/ a 2-3yr window (tops).
6:
Tough, tall frontcourt w/ Bynum and Duncan and this teams only chance at winning would be to play a slowed down halfcourt game or go small ball bringing Duncan off the bench, otherwise, teams who can run on them should as not many teams have the size to match the Hornets froncourt. Question Tayshaun Prince's fortitude (in real life) as he chose to stay in a losing situation in Detroit instead of moving forward to a true contender while Afflalo, Mo' Williams, and Thomas will have to provide the scoring along w/ Bynum. Not a good mix of shot creators on this team but defense will keep them in every game likely.
7:
Timberwolves have a decent mix of players who are really good at what they do, the question is can Harden transform into a bonafide premiere player, my guess is yes since he'd still be 2nd best player on his team after Paul Pierce but this teams window is now or never as they'll simply out hustle teams to get wins.
8:
Well put together team making the West even that much more tougher for teams to get to the Finals and w/ Griffin, Batum, Noah, and Lin they have a very good chance to make it happen but Lin as the only proven closer they'll need Blake to improve to make the leap to Champions.
TOP 8 WIN FUTURE CONTENDERS
1:
Best win future team w/ LeBron and co developing, just in time before that yr 5 window closes.
2:
No way all those rookies don't develop, even if not, Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard seem to be the truth, Parsons has shown to be quite effective, Asik is a good defensive C, all they'd need is for Beal to progress and they have Championship written all over them, especially considering they'll get another high draft pick which they could easily package to make a deal for a proven scorer/ closer (maybe a Rudy Gay or Carmelo Anthony), another big due for a contract (Howard or Bynum), OR a young up and coming RFA SG like James Harden who may likely see greener (or more golden) pastures in the Bay Area in California instead of staying in the cold weather of Minnesota and this team has PERENNIAL winner written all over it.
3:
Easily see a core of Kyrie, Favors, George, and Turner w/ Kyrie Irving leading the way being a legit threat to win it all. Their biggest hole will be the C position and how Zeller develops or if Favors ends up being a fulltime NBA C. Huge question mark and once that's answered, they should develop or evolve the team accordingly.
4:
Young core who'll only get better over time.
5:
Any team w/ a backcourt of Derrick Rose and Avery Bradley is gonna give teams fits, while Z-Bo's game is mostly unathletic and ground bound, he should age well but can Bismack develop into a shutdown force in the paint? If so they have a good chance of making some noise in the East.
6:
Another young team w/ far too much high potential talent in Javale McGee, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Kawhi Leonard to go along w/ Eric Gordon to not be a contender via player development or trade.
7:
Cavs have a really nice backcourt duo of Lawson and Thompson who'll matchup well or favorably w/ any backcourt, young or old, they'll need a C moving forward to go w/ Monroe and Gallo to round out that frontcourt for them to make the step to Champion.
8:
As most other teams are in the middle of the pack w/ terrible long term contracts w/ a mixture of youth and/ or aging players by default only, I choose the Rockets and I see them as a team who'll for the next 5 yrs could be in the Playoffs due to the nice mix of talent (considering they stay intact since Pek and Redick expire this season) but w/ Parker leading the way and Popvich coaching, they'll compete but not win it all.
