FFL - 2012-13 - Voting on Rule Change - draft order posted

[sabonis]

Next four team previews are up:

SAbonis
overview

Sabonis’s team might be renamed “A Tale of Two Cities”. On the one hand, he’s a big man team, but on the other, he’s also a guard team. Though he started the draft going after a few guys who are strong in %s, boards, and scoring, he also added some strong assist-getters (sorry, I have a hard time using the words “strong point guard” for Jameer Nelson). Interestingly enough, assists may actually be one of his strongest categories, as he has 2 guys who will get at least 6 assists a game. His points are even stronger, and he may rank in the top 5 of the league in that regard. Oddly enough, though, where his FT% will naturally be low for a big man team, his blocks are pretty bad, and his rebounds are barely competitive. His FG% should be strong though. On the guard side, his TOs will be high, but his steals may not be competitive enough. In short, this team is a team that could beat other big man teams with his guard strength and beat other guard teams with his big man strength. Of course, it could go the other way around too. (lose to other big man teams because he’s not big-man focused enough, you get the picture)
X Factor: Roy: I may be in the minority, but I believe in Roy, and grabbing a guy who could be top 50 at 134 may be a steal. Then again, his knee may spontaneously combust on the court and it still wouldn’t be too big of a loss of a pick. But the bottom-line is, if Roy works out, he’s the best complement to a big-man stat team you have in a guard (maybe 2nd to only Wade).
Draft Gems: Jerebko. Yeah, I’m going to give it to the Swede. He could be the glue guy that fills in the gaps for his big man and guard stats, and he likely will outdo being picked 227th.
Outlook: Playoff team

thanks for all the input but I have to say one thing, I think my FG% is a bust and my FT% is pretty strong at around 79.1%

is there anyway that you typed it wrong? or did you not really put down some projections for my guys?

to win every week you need something like %80.5 but mine should be pretty good

hibbert, glen davis and odom are the worst FT shooters on my team and they are all around 70%, while mullens is around 80% and jerebko can as high as 80%

[Breakdown777]

So, is everyone like me? Once you get down to this point of the draft I'm prone to taking players with Jazz connections.

You all do that? Take guys with connections to your favorite team when the pickins get thin?

Funny story, but a reason I passed on Stiemsma is because of the hazing I was sure to get from you. I almost took Steamer at 111 over Jason Smith...had it typed in and everything...then went for consistent minutes over Pek insurance. Then Steamer falls into my lap at 233, I panic because there are few GF options left that I really like and take Rip instead...and Steamer goes right after.

Adding insult to injury, I discover that Rip is only a SG this year...making my target of a F eligible player who gets decent assists worthless.

I do like the Stiemsma pick though, I just became scared of his potential to only get about 8-10 minutes a game (which would have been negated in my case if I had him handcuffed to Pek). Oh well...

I also find it interesting that everyone thinks nobody good is left. I still like quite a few players (none of which are going to fall to 273, but still).

[writersblock]

thanks for all the input but I have to say one thing, I think my FG% is a bust and my FT% is pretty strong at around 79.1%

is there anyway that you typed it wrong? or did you not really put down some projections for my guys?

to win every week you need something like %80.5 but mine should be pretty good

hibbert, glen davis and odom are the worst FT shooters on my team and they are all around 70%, while mullens is around 80% and jerebko can as high as 80%

Actually, I have no idea why I said your FG% would be good. Looking at my numbers, it's going to suck. Maybe I was doing too many teams at the same time or something. As for FT%, I have you at about 77%, but it could go higher because I have project it lower than it could be.

[stick]

Hrumph. I was going to take Drummond at 210 then I did a search and found he was drafted. I guess I got confused with DeAndre Jordan or something. D'oh!

Harkless, you better come through for me.

IMHO
Harkless has just as much upside for the next couple seasons as Drummond.
Harkless/Nicholson will be the starting forwards in Orlando at the end of the season

[writersblock]

Thanks Fran. I didn't know I had so much power!

[fraanciiscoo]

Thanks Fran. I didn't know I had so much power!

u the man
now is better?
242 for kperk should be that bad worst case cenario he is ranked that not wrost all that can come its good imo

[stick]

Thanks Fran. I didn't know I had so much power!

u the man
now is better?
242 for kperk should be that bad worst case cenario he is ranked that not wrost all that can come its good imo

couldnt agree more

[writersblock]

Thanks Fran. I didn't know I had so much power!

u the man
now is better?
242 for kperk should be that bad worst case cenario he is ranked that not wrost all that can come its good imo

Well, I'm not a fan of Perkins at all, but he definitely makes your team better.

[theman]

Hrumph. I was going to take Drummond at 210 then I did a search and found he was drafted. I guess I got confused with DeAndre Jordan or something. D'oh!

Harkless, you better come through for me.

IMHO
Harkless has just as much upside for the next couple seasons as Drummond.
Harkless/Nicholson will be the starting forwards in Orlando at the end of the season

I agree. Then again, neither were available when I picked.

So are you a Celtics fan with that big Darko Pick? If he gets back to his 10-11 numbers, he will be a steal, for you and the Celtics.

[writersblock]

Hrumph. I was going to take Drummond at 210 then I did a search and found he was drafted. I guess I got confused with DeAndre Jordan or something. D'oh!

Harkless, you better come through for me.

IMHO
Harkless has just as much upside for the next couple seasons as Drummond.
Harkless/Nicholson will be the starting forwards in Orlando at the end of the season

I agree. Then again, neither were available when I picked.

So are you a Celtics fan with that big Darko Pick? If he gets back to his 10-11 numbers, he will be a steal, for you and the Celtics.

Yeah, and I just finished Stick's team analysis before he picked Darko. He was already a contender in my book. If Darko pans out in Boston, he's going to be nye unbeatable.

[hamncheese]

Bad news for floppy with Frye. Reportedly out for the season now.

[tkunit]

thanks WB

I guess thats what i get for refusing to pay full price.

[floppymoose]

It begins.

[writersblock]

Lo and behold, another 3, this time Cy, Stick, and Break


Cy
overview
The official “hit or miss” team. Cyrus is fairly average across the board, nothing overly dominant, but nothing overly underwhelming. His steals are his strongest category, and any given week he could win points, 3s, or assists, but most weeks, he’ll probably lose boards and blocks, just because of the level of competition on those stats this year. His %s could go either way every week, with the stronger advantage to his FG%. The thing that may hurt his team, though, besides Lopez’s and Curry’s health, will be the role of guys like Chandler and Butler, whose numbers may change this year. Ok, well Chandler could see 25 mins., 10 ppg, 5 boards, with almost a steal and a block, but he could very likely see less than 20 any given night. Butler I have even less hope for. I think Odom soaks in a lot of his minutes, and Caron’s minutes drop by almost 10 mins/game. Consequently, his production will drop to probably 8 ppg and <1 3 per game. Of course, this is all guesstimating since, let’s face it: I’m not a coach. Heck, I’m not even a sports analyst. In the end, I think Cy’s team narrowly misses the playoffs.
X Factor Ed Davis. 2 areas where Cy is on bubble on is his boards and blocks, and if for some reason Valanciunas doesn’t live up to expectations, Davis is going to step in and push Cy’s boards and blocks up into a competitive level. The question is, how long will it take before Davis gets the green light, if he ever does?
Draft Gem Jeff Green. As recently as a year and a half ago, Green was putting up 15 and 5, with one 3 and almost a steal a game. Of course it took him 37 mins a game to do it, but I think if he can find a role in Doc’s rotation, he could approach those numbers.
Outlook: Consolation

Stick
Overview
For the record, I’m figuring Stick’s team out without Derek Rose, because let’s face it, he’s not coming back any time before the all-star break, and maybe not earlier than March. By that time, the standings may be set. However, if he can hold on and just make the playoffs, he’ll be really hard to beat. In fact, I’m going to call Stick’s team “the Thief in the Night” because 1) if he sneaks into the playoffs, he’ll be stealing a lot of teams’ hopes (yeah, these are the jokes people) and 2) he could be the unquestioned leader in steals. Of course, that happens when you draft 2 guys who swipe the ball more than 2 times per game. The thing is, he may very well make the playoffs, because his points, assists, and 3s are among the league leaders, or at least, among the teams I’ve already analyzed. His FT% could be dominant as well. FG% isn’t too bad either. Bottom line, Stick could be a playoff team even without Rose, which is crazy. But he has some guys that I think could dip in production this year, including Dorell Wright, Marion, Gooden, and Bayless.
X Factor Rose. Enough said.
Draft Gem See X Factor.
Outlook: Contender. I’m just going to say it, his team is good enough to compete without Rose, with Rose, who I think will come back strong, he’s definitely a contender.
Breakdown
Overview
Finally, a guard team. Break’s got the stereo-typical guard persuasion, 3s, assists, points, FT%--pretty much what you’d expect. And they’re strong. His boards and blocks are severely lacking, as are his TOs. What worries me, though, about his team is his steals and FG%. If Ak47 comes back to form, then there will be no reason to worry, but that’s still a guard team with gaps in steals and FT% (for a guard team at least). I liked his Zeller pick (he took him right before I was going to) but I didn’t like his Devin Harris pick, as he’s stuck as a back-up PG in ATL, and I don’t think that Billups will bounce back very well from last year, so that could hit his guard stats pretty severely. He also has a little dead weight in guys like Jason Smith and Rip Hamilton, but so does everyone else. Still, he should be strong enough to push past the consolation and make the playoffs, though I think he could land anywhere between 7 and 10.
x factor. Easy one. Ak47. It could be the rebirth of AK in Minnesota, and this new Euro-team they’ve built there could fit his strengths perfectly.
draft gem: Tyler Zeller. I think he’ll seriously outplay his position, and end up top 150 ish.
Outlook: Playoff or Playoff Bubble

note: I have now done Sabonis, Gokce, TK, Insfo, Cy, Stick, Break, BWW, Jfrost, Fran, Jazz, Floppy, and Hopper. The last 7 I should get done tomorrow. I'll post all of them together at the end, in case anyone doesn't want to have to sift back through the pages and find my write-ups.

[Breakdown777]

Breakdown
Overview
Finally, a guard team. Break’s got the stereo-typical guard persuasion, 3s, assists, points, FT%--pretty much what you’d expect. And they’re strong. His boards and blocks are severely lacking, as are his TOs. What worries me, though, about his team is his steals and FG%. If Ak47 comes back to form, then there will be no reason to worry, but that’s still a guard team with gaps in steals and FT% (for a guard team at least). I liked his Zeller pick (he took him right before I was going to) but I didn’t like his Devin Harris pick, as he’s stuck as a back-up PG in ATL, and I don’t think that Billups will bounce back very well from last year, so that could hit his guard stats pretty severely. He also has a little dead weight in guys like Jason Smith and Rip Hamilton, but so does everyone else. Still, he should be strong enough to push past the consolation and make the playoffs, though I think he could land anywhere between 7 and 10.
x factor. Easy one. Ak47. It could be the rebirth of AK in Minnesota, and this new Euro-team they’ve built there could fit his strengths perfectly.
draft gem: Tyler Zeller. I think he’ll seriously outplay his position, and end up top 150 ish.
Outlook: Playoff or Playoff Bubble

Which is it? Strong in FT% or gaps in FT%? I think my FT% will fluctuate like crazy, depending on the week Gay has. I had a team like this last year, in which Wade was the only guy who was a lock for 6+ free throws a game. My yearly FT% was nearly identical to Wade's (it matched it to the hundredths place). This year I have the same issue. Mostly strong FT shooters, but nobody really gets there a lot. I'm hoping Deron's FT attempts and percentage increase.

I'm confident in my steals. I don't have any major thieves that get 2+ a game, but almost everyone on my team averages around 1. That mantra has worked well for my steals CAT in the past.

As for my FG% - I'm hoping the poor shooters (Johnson, Harris, Ridnour, Billups) will shot less since many are in line for a minutes reduction. Add Pek to that equation and I think I'll beat every team that doesn't have FG% as a top priority any given week.

All I want Billups to do is stand around and shoot 3's or dish to an open man...hopefully that won't put too much pressure on his recovering achilles. And at 128 I wanted one more PG and it was a toss up between Billups and Kidd...the two PGs I took back to back last year (whom both burned me). I thought the timeshare Billups was in was better than Kidds (basically I like Felton more than Jamal Crawford).

I liked Harris very much where I took him...for some reason I can't stand Jeff Teague, so maybe my biased got the best of me. Again, he's a backup (might even be 3rd string if Lou Williams gets PG minutes) but I'm hoping that leads to more efficiency.
On a related note, another reason I took both Ridnour and Devin Harris is because I think they are prime candidates to get traded to a team that sorely needs PG help (New Orleans, Portland, etc.)

I'm really happy I picked Zeller where I did.
My list for 208 and 211 originally looked like this:
Booker
Haslem
Stiemsma
Drummond
Jason Smith

My list for 233 and 238 looking like this:
Zeller
Ed Davis
Hansbrough
Best GF available

Booker went a few picks before 208, and then I decided that I didn't want to take boring ol' Haslem that early, and after some research noticed his ADP was much lower, decided that Zeller was one guy I really wanted to root for so I should take him first and let the chips fall as they may. I'm glad I went for a more exciting guy, otherwise my picks in the 200's would look very different (and much more boring).

Thanks for the write-up. I appreciate your insight.
I'll probably be doing mine shortly, as I'm growing impatient and I don't see any "game changers" left. I'm likely to write them all and make one huge post though.

[floppymoose]

Then someone else should be long one draft pick. But I don't have that anywhere. ?

It's me. 270 is my extra.

Then I'm missing a player for you. I have 13 players for you and pick 270. There has to be an extra player or pick somewhere.

[sabonis]

flop sent u an email

[Woody Allen]

Floppy, check you PMs, please.

[stick]

Hrumph. I was going to take Drummond at 210 then I did a search and found he was drafted. I guess I got confused with DeAndre Jordan or something. D'oh!

Harkless, you better come through for me.

IMHO
Harkless has just as much upside for the next couple seasons as Drummond.
Harkless/Nicholson will be the starting forwards in Orlando at the end of the season

I agree. Then again, neither were available when I picked.

So are you a Celtics fan with that big Darko Pick? If he gets back to his 10-11 numbers, he will be a steal, for you and the Celtics.

You insinuating Im a Celtics fan? Doesn't realgm have like TOA or something that says no name calling.
That was entirely offensive...

But, no, I do think he is a good fit there.
There wont be a middle ground.
He will either fail badly and quickly or he will flourish.

He's definitely a headcase, but I got to watch him a lot here in Orlando and he has both the talent and the body.
Something we haven't gotten to see a lot.
Weve seen a headcase with the body (Kwame) a headcase with the talent (Beasley); but a headcase with both is rare.

[writersblock]

Then someone else should be long one draft pick. But I don't have that anywhere. ?

It's me. 270 is my extra.

Then I'm missing a player for you. I have 13 players for you and pick 270. There has to be an extra player or pick somewhere.

Hey Flop, it's Thomas Robinson you're missing. Otherwise, great job putting all the teams together on a spreadsheet!!